一假期蛋价超预期下跌 币场快讯- 期货盘面大幅跳空低开 长期来看,蛋鸡养殖规模持续提升或拉长价格底部周期,耐心等待养 殖端超淘驱动去产能进程的到来。 > 交易策略 节前持续提示大规模集中淘鸡发生前维持高空思路不变,且节前建议 前期空单可继续持有。 当前河北现货跌破2.5元/斤,今日早报提示今日开盘盘面或跳空低开, 前期空单可继续持有,建议逢低可考虑逐步止盈。 现货表现 假期期间鸡蛋市场供强需弱施压蛋价大幅走低。10月8日河北馆陶粉 蛋价格为2.49元/斤,较9月30日跌0.35元/斤。 > 期货表现 今日鸡蛋期货近月合约大幅跳空低开,2511合约开盘2890元/500ka. 跌幅4.24%,截至收稿盘面为2902元/500kg;远月合约表现相对平稳。 分析逻辑 中短期来看,阶段性供强需弱格局持续,蛋价承压走弱、局部区域跌 至饲料成本。重点关注低价驱动淘鸡力度和规模。 格林大华 期货研究院 证监许可 [2011] 1288号 从业资格:F0242716 交易咨询资格:Z0011864 联系甲话0371-65617380 息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确推及灵量性不作后倒保证，不保证报告信息已做最新变更 ...

9月老母鸡市场受供强需弱的影响，其价格与鸡蛋价格走势出现背离。而10月理论待淘老母鸡数量仍处 高位，节前出栏令10月上旬老母鸡价格承压，且下旬需求无明显改善，预计老母鸡价格或先跌后小幅反 弹，月均价或环比小降。 在蛋鸡养殖行业中，老母鸡既是鸡蛋的生产者，本身也是肉食产品的重要来源，当鸡蛋价格上涨时，养 殖企业倾向于延长蛋鸡的产蛋周期，减少老母鸡的出栏量，导致老母鸡供应收缩，从而推高其价格；反 之，鸡蛋价格下跌时，养殖企业会加速淘汰老母鸡，市场供应增加，进而压制其价格。 展望后市，供应面看，10月理论待淘老母鸡数量虽较9月有所减少，但绝对量仍处于历史相对高位，供 给宽松的基础依然存在，对价格整体构成利空。从出栏节奏看，因养殖企业多计划在中秋、国庆双节前 后集中淘汰，10月中上旬的出栏量或将较为集中，供应压力较为显著；进入中下旬，预计出栏节奏将放 缓，供应端的利空影响将由强转弱，为价格提供一定的底部支撑。 需求面看，老母鸡需求端支撑疲软是抑制价格上行的主要因素。10月上旬受中秋、国庆节日效应拉动， 家庭消费及农贸市场需求或有短期、小幅的提振。然而，屠宰企业收购意愿偏低，深加工需求无利多支 撑，将限制需求的反弹高度 ...

具体来看，虽然鸡蛋供应仍处于高位，但受到需求面提振，蛋价走高，使得养殖现盈利。根据卓创资讯 监测数据显示，8月末全国在产蛋鸡存栏量攀升至近三年高点，环比增幅0.40%。进入9月，虽然老母鸡 出栏量增加，使得9月在产蛋鸡存栏量预期止增回落，但存栏绝对数量仍处于高位，对鸡蛋市场产生利 空影响。 需求端来看，一方面，9月学校开学后，食堂对于鸡蛋需求明显增加；另一方面，双节临近，食品加工 企业集中备货，商超鸡蛋礼盒走货亦有加快。叠加气温转凉后，鸡蛋存储质量问题下降的影响，推动鸡 蛋市场消化速度加快，9月迄今鸡蛋发货量较8月平均水平上涨了3.00%。受需求面支撑，9月截至11 日，鸡蛋价格较8月平均水平累计涨幅接近13.00%，这也带动蛋鸡养殖进入盈利局面。 根据监测，5月份以来的近4个月时间内，国内蛋鸡养殖多数处于亏损。不过进入9月上旬，随着蛋价上 涨和成本微降，蛋鸡养殖扭亏为盈。往后看，随着季节性需求支撑发力，盈利状况能否进一步延续？ 综合分析，预计9月中下旬蛋鸡养殖预期仍处盈利格局，但9月末至10月季节性需求支撑力度逐渐减弱， 届时蛋鸡养殖盈利状态或将面临挑战。 2025年5-8月蛋鸡养殖仅在7月末出现短暂盈利外 ...

Core Viewpoint - The egg futures market has shown signs of recovery after hitting a low in August, driven by seasonal demand and expectations of culling hens, but the market remains in a prolonged state of competition with high supply pressure and uncertain capacity reduction [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of September 17, the main egg futures contract closed at 3122 yuan per 500 kg, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.32% [1]. - The demand for stocking ahead of the double festival and expectations regarding hen culling have contributed to the recent rebound in prices [1][4]. - The current high inventory of laying hens, which stood at 1.365 billion in August, represents a 5.9% year-on-year increase, indicating persistent supply pressure [2]. Group 2: Production and Cost Factors - The average laying hen cycle has extended to 2-2.5 years, with the current profit cycle lasting 45 months, which is longer than usual [2]. - The feed conversion ratio has improved, with leading farms achieving a ratio below 1.9, while most smallholders maintain a ratio between 2.1 and 2.15 [3]. - Cost control measures, such as the use of alternative feed ingredients, have contributed to maintaining profit margins in egg production [3]. Group 3: Culling and Supply Outlook - The market is experiencing intensified competition, with uncertainty surrounding the timing and extent of hen culling, which is crucial for balancing supply and demand [4][5]. - Current data indicates that the average age of culled hens is around 495 days, suggesting that the market has not yet reached a point of excessive culling [5]. - Projections indicate that the peak supply growth may occur in September, with a potential shift to negative year-on-year growth by December [5]. Group 4: Profitability and Market Sentiment - As of early September, the profitability of egg production has shifted from a loss of 0.13 yuan per kg to a profit of 0.26 yuan, marking a significant turnaround [7]. - The current market sentiment reflects a rebound in prices due to an overload of bearish expectations, rather than a fundamental reversal in the market [7]. - The high inventory levels and existing profitability are likely to hinder rapid capacity reduction in the near term [7].

Core Viewpoint - The egg production industry has transitioned from a loss to profitability in September due to rising egg prices and a slight decrease in costs, but this profitability may not be sustainable as seasonal demand weakens towards the end of September and into October [1][8]. Group 1: Profitability and Market Dynamics - Egg production turned profitable in September after four months of losses, with the average profit rising to 0.30-0.40 yuan per kilogram by mid-September [1][8]. - The average price of eggs increased significantly, with a cumulative rise of nearly 13% by September 11, driven by heightened demand from schools and food processing companies [3][8]. - The cost of feed ingredients showed a slight decrease, with the average feed cost dropping by 0.01 yuan per kilogram compared to August, contributing to the improved profitability of egg production [5][8]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The supply of laying hens reached a three-year high at the end of August, but is expected to stabilize or slightly decrease in September, which may exert downward pressure on egg prices [3][7]. - Demand for eggs is expected to rise initially due to school meal programs and pre-holiday stockpiling, but is likely to decline after the holidays, potentially leading to a decrease in egg prices [7][8]. - The market is currently experiencing a balance of high supply and increasing demand, but the seasonal nature of demand suggests that profitability may be temporary [7][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The profitability of egg production is characterized as seasonal, with expectations of reduced profit margins to 0.10-0.20 yuan per kilogram as demand weakens and costs stabilize [8]. - The potential for a return to losses in egg production exists if demand significantly decreases post-holiday, indicating that the current profitability may not be sustainable in the long term [8].

Core Viewpoint - The intelligent chicken farming project in Yongzhou, Hunan, is accelerating the upgrade of the egg production industry through automation and standardization, leading to increased income for farmers and enhanced agricultural efficiency [1][3]. Group 1: Project Overview - The project involves the construction of "smart villas" for egg-laying hens, featuring automated environmental control, precise feeding systems, and intelligent egg collection [1][2]. - The first phase of the project has a total investment of 60 million yuan, with plans for seven smart egg-laying houses, expected to produce 220 million eggs annually, generating over 120 million yuan in annual revenue and providing over 100 jobs [2][3]. - The first house with 100,000 hens has been put into production, and the second house is currently being equipped, with a total of 600,000 hens planned for full production by the end of the year [2][3]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The chicken farming industry has become a leading sector in modern agriculture in the Cold Water Beach area, supported by policies that strengthen the industry foundation and enhance production efficiency through technological upgrades [3][5]. - Currently, there are over 120 large-scale chicken farms in the Cold Water Beach area, with a total chicken stock exceeding 7 million, producing 7 million eggs daily and generating an annual value of 2.5 billion yuan [5].

农业农村部发布监测数据显示，9月9日，全国农产品批发市场鸡蛋批发平均价格为7.85元/公斤， 比7月6日的6.82元/公斤上涨15.1%。 "最近几个星期，鸡蛋价格震荡运行，波动比较频繁，是由多种因素共同对蛋价形成拉扯造成 的。"北京新发地农产品批发市场统计部经理刘通说。一方面，前期高温酷暑，中小养鸡场蛋鸡产蛋量 下降，对鸡蛋价格产生拉抬作用。临近中秋假期，食品企业开始增大月饼供应，用蛋量明显增加，对蛋 价形成拉抬。另一方面，规模养鸡场鸡蛋产量并没有下降，而价格低于中小养鸡场，对整体鸡蛋价格形 成压制。此外，前期蛋商手中还存有大量鸡蛋，蛋价上涨，蛋商库存鸡蛋会加大出库量，又制约了蛋价 上涨幅度。不过，尽管蛋价波动比较频繁，总体走势仍处于波动上行中。 9月5日，北京新发地农产品批发市场鸡蛋批发平均价为7.16元/公斤，比8月29日的7.02元/公斤上涨 1.99%，比8月5日的6.23元/公斤上涨14.93%，比去年同期(2024年9月5日)的10.34元/公斤下降30.75%。周 环比小幅上涨，月环比大幅上涨，年同比大幅下降。 就9月上旬表现看，预计蛋价在9月份还会小幅上涨。综合来讲，进入三季度后，蛋价缓慢上 ...

鸡蛋价格为何上涨动力不足？中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所副研究员朱宁认为，主要原因在于 供需两个方面，尤其是供给方面。供给方面，前期养殖场户雏鸡补栏量较高，导致新开产蛋鸡较多，叠 加养殖场户看好三季度市场行情，稳产保产意愿较强，蛋鸡产能仍居高位。而新建或扩建大规模养鸡场 持续投产，小幅推高三季度全国在产蛋鸡存栏量。虽然高温高湿天气影响蛋鸡产能，产蛋率和蛋重双 降，但近些年蛋鸡养殖管理水平增强，难以撼动鸡蛋高供给态势。需求方面，消费带动有限，而且今年 中秋节较往年偏晚，食品企业备货启动也相对较晚。监测数据显示，7月份和8月份鸡蛋集贸市场交易量 比去年同期小幅下降。综合来看，蛋价上涨缺乏支撑和拉力。 刘通表示，目前鸡蛋供应比较充足，不仅产量充足，库存量也充足，蛋价不具备持续上涨的条件。 对蛋鸡养殖行业来说，鸡蛋价格在7月中上旬可能已经见底，后期将以震荡运行为主。进入9月份以后， 蛋价持续小幅上涨。9月9日鸡蛋批发价比9月2日上涨了3.43%。朱宁预计，随着中秋、国庆双节临近， 鸡蛋消费将得到有效提振，拉动蛋价上涨，蛋鸡养殖有望实现盈利。 农业农村部发布监测数据显示，9月9日，全国农产品批发市场鸡蛋批发平均价格 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of collaborative development in rural industries, highlighting the success of various agricultural initiatives in the Han Dian Town of Zhou Ping City [1][8] Group 1: Agricultural Initiatives - The establishment of a cooperative for egg production has led to a significant increase in output, with expectations to reach over 2000 kg per day within a month [9] - The cooperative integrates resources from nine villages, utilizing central government subsidies to enhance collective income for both the village and its residents [9] - A 100-acre traditional Chinese medicine planting base has been developed, focusing on the cultivation of Danshen, which has a high market demand and profitability [3][4] Group 2: Economic Impact - The cooperative model has resulted in a projected profit of approximately 3000 to 4000 yuan per acre for Danshen cultivation, with a total yield of over 2000 kg per acre [3] - The fly locust farming initiative has been established across seven villages, with an expected yield of nearly 1 kg per square meter per harvest, generating significant economic benefits [6] - The collaborative approach not only enhances agricultural productivity but also provides income opportunities for elderly residents, thereby optimizing local human resources [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the growth and development of the selenium-rich egg industry in Shanggao County, emphasizing the role of leading enterprises in driving local agricultural prosperity and the establishment of a comprehensive industry chain [1][3][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - Shanggao County Chashan Poultry Industry Co., Ltd. is a leading enterprise in the selenium-rich egg industry, with an annual production capacity of 13,650 tons of eggs and projected sales revenue of 188 million yuan in 2024 [3]. - The company produces selenium-rich eggs that are priced significantly higher than regular eggs, selling for 6 to 7 yuan each, due to the local selenium-rich soil and proprietary feed [1][3]. Group 2: Industry Development - The selenium-rich egg industry has become the primary characteristic agricultural industry in Shanggao County, with an expected scale of 8 million hens and an annual egg production exceeding 2.2 billion eggs by 2024 [4]. - The county has established a production model centered around "leading enterprises + bases + farmers," promoting large-scale development of egg production [3][4]. - As of 2024, there are over 50 large-scale chicken farms in Xujiadu Town, with a total selenium-rich egg chicken farming scale nearing 3 million hens [3]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The entire industry chain, which includes feed production, chick rearing, egg production, cold chain logistics, and meat processing, is projected to generate a total output value of 2.5 billion yuan [4]. - The county has nurtured four provincial-level industrialization joint bodies, with 24 enterprises achieving annual sales revenue exceeding 100 million yuan [3][4].