Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis such as the golden section line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the trend of today's futures main - contract prices. It expects that stock index futures, gold, silver, and PVC futures will have a strong - side shock, while crude oil and natural rubber futures will have a weak - side shock. Ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures will have a wide - range shock, and other futures will either have a shock consolidation or a wide - range shock [1][2][3][4][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Forecast - **Stock Index Futures**: On September 19, it is expected to have a strong - side shock. For IF2512, resistance levels are 4495 and 4550 points, and support levels are 4413 and 4382 points; for IH2512, resistance levels are 2955 and 2981 points, and support levels are 2873 and 2855 points; for IC2512, resistance levels are 7150 and 7200 points, and support levels are 6881 and 6785 points; for IM2512, resistance levels are 7316 and 7460 points, and support levels are 7131 and 7086 points [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On September 19, the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract T2512 is likely to have a wide - range shock, with resistance levels at 108.17 and 108.32 yuan, and support levels at 107.97 and 107.91 yuan. The thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 is also likely to have a wide - range shock, with resistance levels at 116.1 and 116.5 yuan, and support levels at 115.2 and 115.0 yuan [3][35][40]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: On September 19, the gold futures main contract AU2512 is likely to have a strong - side shock, with resistance levels at 834.0 and 838.1 yuan/gram, and support levels at 824.9 and 820.0 yuan/gram. The silver futures main contract AG2512 is also likely to have a strong - side shock, with resistance levels at 9944 and 9999 yuan/kilogram, and support levels at 9835 and 9799 yuan/kilogram [3][43][47]. - **Base Metal Futures**: On September 19, the copper futures main contract CU2511 is likely to have a shock consolidation, with support levels at 79400 and 79200 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 79900 and 80000 yuan/ton. The aluminum futures main contract AL2511 is likely to have a shock consolidation, with support levels at 20700 and 20650 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 20920 and 21000 yuan/ton. The alumina futures main contract AO2601 is likely to have a shock consolidation, with resistance levels at 2960 and 2989 yuan/ton, and support levels at 2919 and 2900 yuan/ton [3][50][55]. - **Energy and Chemical Futures**: On September 19, the crude oil futures main contract SC2511 is likely to have a weak - side shock, with support levels at 485 and 480 yuan/barrel, and resistance levels at 497 and 500 yuan/barrel. The PVC futures main contract V2601 is likely to have a strong - side shock and will attack the resistance levels of 4975 and 5000 yuan/ton, with support levels at 4923 and 4891 yuan/ton. The natural rubber futures main contract RU2601 is likely to have a weak - side shock and will test the support levels of 15330 and 15210 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 15670 and 15750 yuan/ton [4][5][92][97][99]. - **Building Materials and Steel Futures**: On September 19, the rebar futures main contract RB2601 is likely to have a shock consolidation, with support levels at 3123 and 3101 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 3166 and 3180 yuan/ton. The hot - rolled coil futures main contract HC2601 is likely to have a weak - side shock, with support levels at 3335 and 3314 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 3370 and 3388 yuan/ton. The iron ore futures main contract I2601 is likely to have a wide - range shock, with resistance levels at 809 and 815 yuan/ton, and support levels at 796 and 789 yuan/ton. The coking coal futures main contract JM2601 is likely to have a wide - range shock, with support levels at 1188 and 1166 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 1223 and 1238 yuan/ton. The glass futures main contract FG601 is likely to have a weak - side shock, with support levels at 1194 and 1176 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 1212 and 1226 yuan/ton. The soda ash futures main contract SA601 is likely to have a shock consolidation, with resistance levels at 1318 and 1325 yuan/ton, and support levels at 1297 and 1289 yuan/ton [3][4][67][72][74]. - **Lithium Carbonate Futures**: On September 19, the lithium carbonate futures main contract LC2511 is likely to have a wide - range shock, with resistance levels at 74100 and 75100 yuan/ton, and support levels at 72000 and 70300 yuan/ton [62]. 2. Macro - Information and Trading Tips - **Trade - related**: The Chinese Ministry of Commerce stated its stance on the TikTok issue and the EU's anti - subsidy tax on Chinese electric vehicles. It also mentioned the anti - dumping investigation on EU pork products [6][7]. - **Science and Technology Investment**: In the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, China's R & D investment increased, with the total R & D investment in 2024 exceeding 3.6 trillion yuan, a 48% increase from 2020. The R & D investment intensity reached 2.68%, exceeding the average level of EU countries. The DeepSeek - R1 reasoning model research paper was on the cover of "Nature", marking China's AI technology getting the highest recognition in the international scientific community [7][8]. - **Business and Economy**: The "2025 China's Top 500 Service Enterprises" were released, with the total operating income of the short - listed enterprises in 2024 reaching 51.1 trillion yuan. Beijing and Shanghai announced the upper and lower limits of social security contribution bases for 2025. The Shanghai government plans to support high - growth enterprises, offering up to 100,000 yuan in rewards for gazelle enterprises and up to 200,000 yuan for unicorn enterprises [7]. - **International Cooperation and Investment**: The US and the UK signed a science and technology cooperation agreement. BP plans to invest over 3.6 billion pounds in the US annually for the next five years, and CoreWeave will invest 1.5 billion pounds in the UK [8]. - **Employment and Unemployment**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 231,000, the largest decline in nearly four years. However, the number of continued unemployment claims remained above 1.9 million, indicating some pressure in the labor market [9]. - **US Government Fund**: The US government is promoting a $5 - billion mineral investment fund [9]. - **UK Central Bank Policy**: The Bank of England maintained the interest rate at 4% and reduced the quantitative tightening scale from 100 billion pounds to 70 billion pounds in the next 12 months [9]. 3. Commodity Futures - Related Information - **Iron Ore Index**: The Iron Ore Working Committee of the China Iron and Steel Association arranged the launch of the import iron ore port spot price index [9]. - **International Precious Metal Futures**: On September 18, international precious metal futures generally closed down. COMEX gold futures fell 1.07% to $3678.2 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.12% to $42.1 per ounce [10]. - **International Crude Oil Futures**: On September 18, international oil prices fell slightly. The US crude oil main contract fell 0.61% to $63.31 per barrel, and the Brent crude oil main contract fell 0.73% to $66.97 per barrel [10]. - **London Base Metals**: On September 18, most London base metals fell. LME tin fell 1.73% to $33750 per ton, LME zinc fell 1.04% to $2913 per ton, LME copper fell 0.50% to $9946 per ton, LME nickel fell 0.45% to $15335 per ton, LME lead fell 0.42% to $2004 per ton, and LME aluminum rose 0.82% to $2705 per ton [10].

Core Insights - The 2025 Tencent Global Digital Ecosystem Conference emphasizes "growth and efficiency," highlighting the retail industry as a key focus area for potential investment opportunities [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends and Opportunities - The macroeconomic environment is showing signs of recovery, with retail GDP leading the growth despite some sectors facing operational challenges [3]. - New consumption patterns, including quality-price ratio consumption and international market expansion, present strong growth opportunities in the retail sector [3][5]. - Tencent's strategy involves a dual focus on creating "human-centered" AI and international market expansion to drive higher quality growth [3][5]. Group 2: AI Implementation and Solutions - Tencent has identified three key solutions to alleviate AI-related anxieties among enterprises, focusing on strategic, tactical, and assurance layers [6][9]. - The company advocates for AI applications to be rooted in specific business scenarios to maximize their effectiveness [7][9]. - Tencent's AI solutions have demonstrated significant improvements in marketing efficiency, with AI-driven marketing achieving 2-3 times the efficiency of human teams [10]. Group 3: International Expansion and Digital Transformation - Despite global trade barriers, there is a consensus among enterprises on the necessity of globalization, with 80% of Chinese retail companies actively pursuing overseas markets [11][13]. - Tencent Cloud is enhancing its global product offerings to support Chinese enterprises in navigating compliance, localization, and intelligent upgrades as they expand internationally [11][14]. - The company has reported a doubling of its overseas customer base, with international business experiencing high double-digit growth for three consecutive years [13][14]. Group 4: Partnerships and Collaborations - Tencent has formed partnerships with various enterprises to enhance digital transformation, including collaborations with major brands like McDonald's and Beijing Universal Resort [15]. - The company continues to expand its ecosystem by signing cooperation agreements with multiple organizations to drive intelligent and international growth [15].

Core Insights - Tencent's stock rose by 2.56% to HKD 661.5 per share, with a market capitalization returning to HKD 6 trillion, reflecting positive investor sentiment amid the AI wave [2] - The 2025 Tencent Global Digital Ecosystem Conference showcased significant AI business updates and collaborations, indicating Tencent's strong positioning in the AI sector [2] - Tencent reported Q2 2025 revenue of CNY 184.5 billion, a 15% year-on-year increase, and operating profit of CNY 69.2 billion, up 18%, highlighting the benefits of its AI investments [2] AI Market Dynamics - The demand surge for AI has intensified competition among cloud service providers, leading to a heated market environment [3] - The price war in the AI model sector has been exacerbated by competitors like DeepSeek, which set low API pricing, prompting others to follow suit [3][4] - Tencent has stated it will not engage in loss-leading pricing strategies for cloud services, emphasizing the unsustainability of such models [4] Strategic Focus - Tencent's cloud strategy focuses on efficiency and global expansion rather than competing on price, with a commitment to sustainable growth [4] - The company aims to leverage its unique "connection" capabilities by integrating core technologies with tools like WeChat and Tencent Meeting to enhance customer engagement [5] Competitive Landscape - The AI public cloud service market in China is projected to reach CNY 19.59 billion in 2024, growing by 55.3% year-on-year, with major players including Baidu and Alibaba leading the market [6] - Various cloud providers are adopting different strategies, such as Baidu's self-developed models and Alibaba's combination of self-research and open-source approaches [7] - The global server market is expected to grow to USD 366 billion by 2025, driven by increasing demand for AI capabilities [7]

Core Viewpoint - Xunzhong Co., Ltd. and Tencent Cloud signed a strategic cooperation agreement during the 2025 Tencent Global Digital Ecosystem Conference, aiming to explore the deep integration of new-generation information technology and industrial economy [2][3] Group 1: Strategic Cooperation - The cooperation will leverage the strengths of both companies in cloud communication, intelligent cloud contact services, digital solutions, and government intelligent services [2] - Xunzhong Co., Ltd. is recognized for its mature industry scenario service capabilities and strong technical advantages in cloud communication and intelligent government service upgrades [2] - Tencent Cloud focuses on becoming a digital assistant across various industries, rooted in consumer internet and embracing industrial internet [2] Group 2: Areas of Collaboration - The partnership will explore multi-field industrial intelligence, infrastructure construction, talent cultivation, and research collaboration [3] - In industrial intelligence, the focus will be on smart customer service and urban smart operations to achieve product integration and industrial upgrades [3] - The collaboration aims to enhance technical strength and service quality in urban informationization and provide smarter, more reliable digital transformation solutions for various industries [3]

Core Insights - The shift from "red ocean competition" to "blue ocean exploration" in the Chinese automotive industry emphasizes the necessity for companies to expand overseas, with a projected export of 1.4 million electric vehicles by 2025, maintaining China's position as the largest exporter [3][4] - Companies like GAC are setting ambitious overseas targets, aiming to enter 100 countries and regions and sell 500,000 vehicles within three years, with overseas business expected to account for 20% of total sales [3][4] - The increasing intelligence of Chinese electric vehicles is seen as a competitive advantage in the global market, with predictions indicating that the export scale of Chinese new energy smart vehicles could reach $32.5 billion by 2025 and surge to $236.3 billion by 2030 [4] Industry Trends - The automotive industry's push to go global is driven by the saturation of the domestic market and the need to seek new profit growth points [4] - The complexity and uncertainty of the global economic landscape present significant challenges for Chinese companies, including regulatory compliance, supply chain management, and cultural adaptation [4][5] GAC's Global Strategy - GAC's international strategy includes a digital infrastructure plan that focuses on marketing, manufacturing, and compliance, aiming to build a global operational system [5][6] - The company has opted to collaborate with Alibaba Cloud to establish a compliant digital system overseas, utilizing a hybrid architecture for data localization and compliance [7][8] Cost Management and Efficiency - GAC faces high operational costs in overseas markets, prompting the need for cost-effective solutions [9] - The use of Alibaba Cloud's Lindorm database has significantly reduced data processing costs by 50% in the Middle East, showcasing the efficiency of cloud-native solutions [9][10] AI Integration - The integration of AI in the automotive sector is crucial for enhancing operational efficiency and reducing costs, with GAC planning to leverage AI capabilities across various business functions [11][13] - GAC's collaboration with Alibaba Cloud's AI platform has accelerated model training and improved the efficiency of smart driving technology development [12] Supply Chain and Payment Solutions - GAC has implemented a comprehensive supply chain management platform with the help of Alibaba Cloud, addressing the complexities of logistics and payment systems in overseas markets [14][15] - The partnership with Antom for payment solutions has facilitated small payment capabilities in international markets, overcoming challenges faced in online transactions [15][16] Conclusion - The collaboration between GAC and Alibaba Cloud exemplifies how technology partnerships can support Chinese automotive companies in their global expansion efforts, providing a stable technological foundation and accelerating innovation [16]

Group 1 - The article discusses the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) technology and its potential opportunities in the market [3] - Elon Musk plans to evaluate the design of Tesla's AI5 chip and will hold meetings regarding AI, the Optimus humanoid robot, and vehicle production [5] - Swiss institutions have launched an open-source large language model named Apertus, which contrasts with the proprietary models from major US companies [5] Group 2 - CoreWeave, a cloud service provider, has secured a significant order from NVIDIA valued at over $6.3 billion, leading to a 7.60% increase in its stock price [6][7] - Alphabet has reached a market capitalization of $3 trillion, becoming the fourth US company to achieve this milestone, driven by positive news and a favorable court ruling [11] - Google's cloud business has seen a surge in demand, with remaining performance obligations exceeding $106 billion, and its AI chatbot Gemini has surpassed ChatGPT in app downloads [12]

Core Insights - The "Blue Book" highlights significant improvements in the scale and quality of China's service trade, driven by institutional openness, digital technology, and emerging service trade forms [1] Group 1: Transition to Knowledge-Intensive Services - China's service industry is shifting from labor-intensive to knowledge-intensive, optimizing industry structure and increasing the proportion of knowledge-intensive service trade [2] - Traditional service trade still holds a significant share, with tourism and transportation services accounting for about 50% of total service trade from 2019 to 2024 [2] - In 2023, tourism service trade exports reached $14.56 billion, with a projected 154.1% year-on-year growth in 2024, increasing to $37.0 billion [2] Group 2: Growth of Knowledge-Intensive Service Trade - In 2024, knowledge-intensive service trade is expected to reach 28,965.2 billion yuan, growing by 6.5%, with exports at 16,573.2 billion yuan, up 7.4% [3] - The fastest growth in knowledge-intensive service exports is seen in personal cultural and entertainment services, and telecommunications, with increases of 39.3% and 12.2% respectively [3] - Knowledge-intensive service trade surplus expanded to 4,181.2 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 504.5 billion yuan from the previous year [3] Group 3: Service Outsourcing and Development - Service outsourcing has been growing, with an average annual growth rate of 14.47% from 2016 to 2024, and the total contract amount for service outsourcing contracts reaching 30,535 billion yuan in 2024 [3] - The execution amount for service outsourcing contracts was 22,197 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.3% [3] Group 4: High-Quality Development of Service Trade - The core of high-quality service trade development lies in releasing new productive forces in the service industry, focusing on high value-added and digital professional services [4] - There is a need to accelerate the development of knowledge-intensive productive services and support the establishment of digital service trade zones and export bases [4] - New service models such as virtual exhibitions and remote healthcare should be cultivated to enhance global market participation [4] Group 5: Impact of Digital Technology - Digital technology is reshaping the service trade model in entertainment, culture, and sports, driving industries towards intelligence, integration, and globalization [5] - Technologies like AI, 5G, and cloud computing are breaking traditional industry boundaries and accelerating the emergence of new business models [5][6] - The market for new service industries such as digital culture and smart tourism is expanding, with the sharing economy and platform economy thriving [6]

Core Insights - The emergence of AI is leading to a significant wealth redistribution among global billionaires, with technology giants dominating the top ranks of the wealth list [1][2] - Oracle's stock surged nearly 36% following a strong earnings report, marking its largest single-day gain since 1992, driven by substantial cloud contracts with major AI players [3][4] - The AI arms race among North America's major cloud providers is intensifying, with a 64% year-over-year increase in capital expenditures in Q2 2025 [4] Company Highlights - Oracle reported a remarkable increase in remaining performance obligations (RPO) to $455 billion, a 359% year-over-year growth, and projected significant revenue growth in its cloud business over the next four years [3][4] - The CEO of Oracle emphasized the vast potential of the AI inference market, suggesting that the demand for computing power will be broader and more sustained than previously anticipated [3][4] - The stock performance of ETFs related to AI, such as the Southern AI Chip ETF and the Southern Entrepreneurial AI ETF, has seen significant gains, reflecting market interest in the AI chip industry [1][3][4] Industry Trends - The AI infrastructure is undergoing a transformation, with a focus on co-packaged optics (CPO) becoming crucial for the next phase of AI data center upgrades [5] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a surge in orders, with a notable increase in AI-related orders, indicating a robust demand for AI computing capabilities [10] - The robotics sector is gaining traction, with significant investments and interest in humanoid robots, which are seen as a key application of AI technology [12][18] Investment Opportunities - The three ETFs—Southern AI Chip ETF, Southern Entrepreneurial AI ETF, and Southern Robotics ETF—are positioned to capitalize on the AI revolution, covering critical segments of the AI industry from chips to applications [19][21] - The Southern Robotics ETF has shown impressive growth, reflecting the increasing market interest in robotics and AI applications [13][15] - The focus on AI applications, particularly humanoid robots, is expected to drive future growth and investment in the sector [12][18]

Core Insights - Oracle reported strong performance in its cloud business with a backlog of $455 billion in remaining performance obligations (RPO), an increase of $317 billion from the end of last year, representing a year-over-year growth of 359% [2][4] - The growth in orders is primarily driven by data center-related orders from clients such as OpenAI, xAI, Meta, and NVIDIA [2][4] - For FY2026, Oracle's cloud infrastructure IaaS revenue is expected to grow by 77% to reach $18 billion, with projections for the following four years being $32 billion, $73 billion, $114 billion, and $144 billion respectively [2][4] Industry Developments - NVIDIA launched the Rubin CPX GPU, designed to enhance inference performance and efficiency for contexts exceeding 1 million tokens, featuring 128GB GDDR7 memory and AI computing power of 30 PFLOPS [3] - Lixun introduced Co-packaged Copper (CPC) technology at the 2025 Shenzhen Optical Expo, aimed at addressing high-performance, low-cost interconnect challenges in the AI and computing era [3] - Taiwanese AI server ODM manufacturers reported a monthly revenue of NT$121.39 billion in August, a year-over-year increase of 16.71%, with Wistron achieving a remarkable 198.14% increase [4] - China Unicom received a satellite communication business operating license, accelerating the development of satellite internet infrastructure in China [4] - The communication index rose by 3.00% this week, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increasing by 1.38%, indicating a relative performance gain of 1.62% [4] Investment Recommendations - The global cloud service provider (CSP) AI arms race is accelerating, with new product launches from companies like Apple and Huawei, and events such as the Open Data Center Conference and META Developer Conference [5] - Continued focus on optical devices and modules, communication equipment, and liquid cooling technologies is recommended [5] - The three major telecom operators remain important assets for dividend allocation, with stable operations and increasing dividend payout ratios [5]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The conference call discusses the performance and outlook of the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets, particularly focusing on the impact of global liquidity, currency fluctuations, and sector performance. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Global Liquidity and Market Performance** Global liquidity easing is beneficial for risk assets, with both Hong Kong and A-shares expected to benefit. The U.S. Treasury's actions, such as increasing short-term debt issuance, may further lower U.S. interest rates, supporting risk asset growth [1][4]. 2. **AH Premium Narrowing** The narrowing of the AH premium is influenced by changes in U.S.-China interest rate differentials and shifts in market expectations regarding China's long-term growth. The AH premium has decreased from 35-40% to below 20% this year [1][5]. 3. **RMB Appreciation and Market Sentiment** The appreciation of the RMB enhances market risk appetite and supports downward space, leading to foreign capital inflows. Historical data shows significant foreign capital inflows during RMB appreciation periods, with passive funds reacting more strongly [1][6]. 4. **Sector Performance in Hong Kong** The technology sector in Hong Kong is poised for a dual boost in valuation and sentiment. Major internet companies are gaining attention for their AI, gaming, and cloud services, despite competitive pressures [1][7]. 5. **Foreign Investment Trends** There is a noticeable increase in foreign interest in Chinese assets, particularly in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks. The inflow of passive funds is outpacing market growth, indicating potential for further allocation increases [1][8]. 6. **Sectoral Benefits from RMB Appreciation** During RMB appreciation, the technology sector leads in performance, while sectors like non-ferrous metals, agriculture, home appliances, and machinery benefit from reduced cost pressures and advantages in overseas markets [1][9][10]. 7. **Investment Recommendations for Hong Kong** Recommendations for Hong Kong investments include a focus on technology, followed by non-bank financials and traditional consumer goods, as these sectors may gain further advantages amid foreign capital inflows and RMB appreciation [1][11]. 8. **Sentiment Indicators for Investment Decisions** Sentiment indicators can objectively measure market participant emotions, providing insights for investment timing. A divergence between personal sentiment and sentiment indicators may signal good entry points [2][12]. 9. **Performance of Overseas Chinese Stocks** The performance of overseas Chinese stocks in the first half of 2025 was stable, with revenue growth around 2% and profit growth around 5%. The financial sector showed slight declines, while non-financial sectors remained robust [1][13][14]. 10. **Sector Highlights in Financial Reports** The technology hardware and new consumption sectors showed strong revenue and profit growth, while the internet and automotive sectors faced challenges but are still in a revenue growth phase [1][15][16]. 11. **Cash Flow and ROE Trends** The cash flow situation for overseas Chinese stocks is improving, with operating cash flow rising and dividend payouts increasing by about 10%. The return on equity (ROE) has slightly improved, driven by net profit margin enhancements [1][18][20]. 12. **Market Dynamics and Future Outlook** The A-share market has shown signs of recovery, with active trading and sector trends becoming more pronounced. The outlook for domestic fundamentals remains positive, with expectations of stabilization in capacity cycles [1][22][23]. 13. **Investment Selection Criteria** Investment selection is based on inventory and capacity cycles, with recommendations for sectors showing signs of recovery and improvement in order trends, such as TMT and high-end manufacturing [1][29]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The overall sentiment in the market is influenced by external factors, including U.S. Federal Reserve policies, which are expected to favor growth sectors like pharmaceuticals and technology in Hong Kong [1][25]. - The internal competition in the Hong Kong market is less severe compared to A-shares, providing a more favorable environment for certain sectors [1][19].