投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250902 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：国际金价逼近前高，国内股债双双上涨 海外方面，欧洲内需回暖，8 月制造业 PMI 三年来首上荣枯线，德法反弹，新订单扩 张；欧洲 7 月失业率降至 6.2%历史低位，就业偏强巩固 9 月欧央行"按兵不动"预期。贝 森特表示，特朗普或于今秋宣布全国住房紧急状态，措施可能包括建筑材料关税豁免，并坚 信最高法院将支持其关税政策。美盘周一休市，受降息预期及美联储独立性担忧影响，美元 指数回落至 97.6，金价逼近前高，铜价创近月新高，油价同步走强。本周关注美国一系列就 业数据、8 月 PMI 及美联储人事风波的演绎。 国内方面，中国 8 月标普制造业 PMI 升至 50.5，好于预期与前值，新订单增速创 3 月 以来新高，带动生产重回扩张；出口下滑趋缓，采购与库存回升，企业信心改善，但用工仍 显谨慎。中国在上合组织倡议新能源、人工智能等合作平台，并承诺援助资金与教育培训， 共促经贸与多边合作。A 股缩 ...

Core Insights - On September 1, 28 out of 31 primary industries in the Shenwan index received net financing inflows, with the electronics sector leading at a net inflow of 5.58 billion [1] - Other notable sectors with significant net inflows include telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, automotive, and non-bank financials, each exceeding 2 billion in net inflows [1] Industry Summary - The electronics industry topped the list with a net financing inflow of 5.58 billion [1] - Telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, automotive, and non-bank financials also showed strong performance with net inflows exceeding 2 billion each [1] Company Summary - A total of 2062 stocks experienced net financing inflows on September 1, with 89 stocks having inflows over 100 million [1] - BYD led individual stocks with a net inflow of 1.401 billion, followed by companies like Xinyi Semiconductor, Zhongji Xuchuang, Zijin Mining, Hanwha, Zhaoyi Innovation, Tongfu Microelectronics, WuXi AppTec, and China Ping An, all exceeding 500 million in net inflows [1]

每日市场观察 2025 年 9 月 2 日 【市场回顾】 市场概况：9 月 1 日，市场全天震荡分化，创业板指领涨，沪指窄幅震 荡。截至收盘，沪指涨 0.46%，深成指涨 1.05%，创业板指涨 2.29%。 【资金面】 主力资金流向：9 月 1 日，上证净流入 91.55 亿元，深证净流入 94.94 亿元。行业板块方面，主力资金流入前三的板块为通信设备、化学制 药、计算机设备，主力资金流出排名前三的板块为软件开发、证券、 保险。 【消息面】 【今日关注】 周一市场收涨，成交额 2.78 万亿，比上一交易日小幅减少约 500 亿。 行业多数上涨，通信、综合、有色、医药、电子等行业涨幅居前。非银、 银行、家电等行业小幅下跌。 科技条线持续高涨，阿里公司的最新财报，再度强化了国内 AI 算力建 设和国产替代的预期，周一涨幅居前的通信、电子当中领涨个股大多与 此有关，当前 AI 相关的板块市值规模和成交规模已经非常巨大，但上 涨趋势却超常强势，再次说明趋势不会轻易改变。有色金属当中的大市 值龙头同样涨幅领先行业，以及医药行业短暂调整之后的快速修复，也 说明当前流动性充足背景下，多个行业均存在较好的布居机会。 美联 ...

黄金方面： 随着特朗普解雇鲍威尔无果，又转向解雇美联储理事之后，调查显示有四分之一的经济学家担忧到2029年特朗普任期结束之前，美联储将无法 独立决定利率，另外有约一半的经济学家认为现在作出判断还为时过早。 据芝商所"美联储观察"工具显示，美联储9月降息的概率为89.6%；10月降息25个基点的概率为47.3%，累计降息50个基点的概率为47.9%。 百利好特约智昇研究黄金高级分析师欧文认为，如果因为特朗普的政策导致美联储独立性被削弱，那么美国的经济将处于高度不确定性。 技术面：黄金上周周线收大阳线，近两周持续上涨，当前价格接近3500美元的历史最高点，暂时未出现顶部信号。短线来看，进一步上涨的概 率大，日内下方关注3466美元的支撑。 技术面：原油自8月中以来维持62-65美元区间震荡，对比此前的下跌来看表现弱势，后续进一步下跌的概率大。小时图，65美元一线若不能上 破，则可能形成新一轮的下跌，短线下方关注63美元的支撑，若跌破则有下破61.80美元的风险。 黄金小时图 原油小时图 原油方面： 本周末将召开OPEC+大会，需重点留意，在上一次的大会上宣布9月增产54.7万桶/日，2023年11月以来的220 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US dollar index is under pressure due to rising expectations of Fed rate cuts and concerns about its independence, while global risk appetite has increased. Domestically, China's official manufacturing PMI in August improved slightly to 49.4 but remained below the boom - bust line for the fifth consecutive month. With policies to expand service consumption and the extension of the tariff truce between China and the US, short - term domestic risk appetite has risen. The market's trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with short - term macro upward drivers strengthening marginally [2]. - Different sectors have different short - term trends. For example, stock indices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, treasury bonds to fluctuate at high levels, and different commodity sectors have their own characteristics such as black metals being weak, non - ferrous metals being slightly stronger, energy and chemicals fluctuating, and precious metals being strong at high levels [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the weakening US dollar index and rising global risk appetite are due to expectations of Fed rate cuts and concerns about its independence. Domestically, the manufacturing PMI improved slightly but was still below the boom - bust line. Policies to expand service consumption are to be introduced, and the extension of the tariff truce and US easing expectations reduce short - term external risks and increase domestic easing expectations. Short - term macro upward drivers are strengthening marginally [2]. - **Stock Indices**: Driven by sectors like precious metals, metals, and biomedicine, the domestic stock market rose slightly. With the improvement in manufacturing PMI and policy support, short - term domestic risk appetite has increased. The market focuses on domestic policies and easing expectations, and short - term operation is to be cautiously bullish [2][3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to fluctuate at high levels in the short term, with a cautious wait - and - see approach [2]. Black Metals - **Steel**: On Monday, steel futures and spot prices continued to be weak, and market trading volume was low. Although the PMI in August increased by 0.1 percentage points, it was still below the boom - bust line. Real - world demand is weakening, steel inventories are increasing, and the probability of steel mills resuming production next week is high. The steel market is likely to remain weak in the short term [4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: On Monday, the decline in iron ore futures and spot prices widened. Iron water production is expected to further decline this week, and steel mills' procurement is cautious. The global iron ore shipment volume and arrival volume have increased this week, and the port inventory has slightly decreased. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Monday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese declined. The production of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia has little change, and there are new production capacity plans in October. The production of silicon iron has cost support, and the reduction in production is expected to be limited. Ferroalloy prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [6]. - **Soda Ash**: On Monday, the main soda ash contract fluctuated within a range. Supply is under pressure, demand is weak, and profits are declining. Soda ash has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand, and is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [7]. - **Glass**: On Monday, the main glass contract fluctuated within a range. Supply has slightly increased, demand is difficult to improve significantly, and profits have slightly increased. Glass is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The eurozone's manufacturing PMI reached a new high. However, domestic copper demand is expected to weaken marginally, and although the Fed's rate cut in September may briefly boost copper prices, the strong copper price is hard to sustain [9]. - **Aluminum**: On Monday, the aluminum closing price fell and then rebounded slightly. Aluminum inventory has increased, and LME aluminum inventory is at a neutral level. In the medium term, the upside space for aluminum prices is limited, and in the short term, it will maintain a fluctuating trend [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. Considering cost support, the price is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term, but the upside space is limited [9]. - **Tin**: The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi has decreased slightly. The supply of tin ore is expected to be more abundant. Terminal demand is weak, and inventory has decreased. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with limited upside space [10][11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Monday, the main lithium carbonate contract fell. Lithium carbonate is slowly destocking, and it is expected to fluctuate widely, with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Monday, the main industrial silicon contract rose. Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate within a range [11]. - **Polysilicon**: On Monday, the main polysilicon contract rose significantly. Rumors of industry restructuring have raised market expectations, but production in August was close to 130,000 tons, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, facing a game between strong expectations and weak reality [12]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market is focused on geopolitical risks. India has refuted the US pressure to stop importing oil from Russia, and Ukraine has attacked more Russian refineries. OPEC+ will hold a meeting to discuss supply policies, and the market expects the organization to suspend production increases. The spot price has a limited rebound, and attention should be paid to Indian tariffs and OPEC+ production decisions [13]. - **Asphalt**: The slight increase in oil prices has driven up asphalt costs. Asphalt itself is still weak, with a slightly declining basis. Inventory de - stocking is limited, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate in the near term, with attention to changes in oil costs [14]. - **PX**: The rebound in crude oil prices has driven up the PX market, but due to low PTA开工, the PX price is still weak. PX is in a tight supply situation, and the PXN spread has slightly decreased. It is expected to fluctuate in the near term, waiting for changes in PTA plants [14]. - **PTA**: The PTA开工 has been at a low level due to plant problems, but the high basis has weakened, and processing fees have recovered. Demand recovery is slow, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with attention to oil prices and downstream demand [14]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Due to overseas plant problems, imports are expected to be low, and port inventory has decreased significantly. The load of synthetic gas plants is high, and there is limited room for further increase. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the short term, with attention to downstream开工 recovery and oil costs [15]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber price has slightly decreased due to sector resonance. Terminal orders have increased seasonally, and short - fiber开工 has rebounded slightly. Inventory has accumulated slightly, and it is expected to follow the polyester sector and can be shorted at high levels in the medium term [15]. - **Methanol**: The restart of inland plants and concentrated arrivals have increased supply pressure. The opening of the reflux window and the planned restart of MTO plants provide some support, but the oversupply pattern remains, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [15]. - **PP**: The device开工 has increased, and new production capacity has been put into operation. Demand is weak, but policy support prevents a deep decline. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [16]. - **LLDPE**: Current maintenance has relieved supply pressure, and downstream demand is slowly increasing, with inventory decreasing. As maintenance ends, supply pressure will increase. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to demand growth [16]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The CBOT market was closed overnight. Since the USDA tightened the supply - demand expectations for new - crop US soybeans in August, and export sales data have improved, the net long position of CBOT soybean funds has increased. However, without substantial Chinese purchases, the export outlook is not overly optimistic, and there is no upward driver for the low - valued market [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The CBOT soybean price is likely to be under pressure in the short term. In China, with more imported soybeans being released, the risk preference for protein meal may decrease. There is still a large pressure for short - term inventory accumulation, and the basis is difficult to repair in the short term [17]. - **Oils and Fats**: Southeast Asian palm oil is in a peak production season, and exports are limited. It is expected that Indonesia will repair its low inventory, while Malaysia will face inventory accumulation pressure. The overall boost to oils and fats is limited. Domestic palm oil may be under pressure, while soybean and rapeseed oils have sufficient supply and demand and may see a repair of the low - valued market [17][18]. - **Corn**: In September, attention should be paid to the new - crop corn listing. There is no concentrated arrival pressure this year, and port and downstream inventories are low. The expected opening price of new - crop corn in the main production areas may be slightly higher than last year, and the main C2511 contract is expected to operate in the range of 2150 - 2250 yuan/ton [18]. - **Pigs**: In September, the supply and demand of pigs will both increase. The pressure of large - weight pig sales has been released, and there is a seasonal replenishment for secondary fattening. With the traditional holiday stocking period, the pig price should not be overly pessimistic [19].

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，Wind数据显示，9月1日，共31只港股获公司回购，5只个股回购金额超千万港元。其中， 腾讯控股、中国宏桥、快手-W回购金额最大，分别获公司回购5.5亿港元、3.92亿港元、8371.62万港 元。截至9月1日，今年已有224只港股获公司回购，44只个股年内累计回购金额超亿港元。其中，腾讯 控股、汇丰控股、友邦保险年内累计回购金额最大，分别获公司回购460.99亿港元、241.45亿港元、 176.93亿港元。 ...

金属期权 2025-09-02 金属期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 金属期权策略早报概要：（1）有色金属偏弱震荡，构建卖方中性波动率策略策略；（2）黑色系维持大幅度波动的 行情走势，适合构建做空波动率组合策略；（3）贵金属多头上涨突破上行，构建现货避险策略。 | 表1：标的期货市场概况 | | --- | | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （%） ...

驱动因素 智通财经APP注意到，周一伦敦金属交易所(LME)铜价向每吨1万美元关口逼近，美元走软且终端需求 保持韧性，推动铜价延续四周连涨走势。 美元应声走软，因市场预计美联储将在下次会议降息，这使美元计价的大宗商品对海外买家而言更便 宜。 LME期铜价格日内最高上涨0.3%至每吨9928美元，8月合约累计上涨3%。纽约商品交易所(COMEX)铜 期货持稳，主力合约报每磅4.598美元(合每吨10137美元)。 中国需求也保持韧性，但边际上有所降温。据紫金矿业（601899）集团数据，2025年上半年中国精炼铜 表观消费量同比增长约10%。 但高盛分析师警告称，虽然美国降息预期和支持性政策提供了支撑，但实物市场松动以及经济数据持续 疲软可能对该行业造成压力。 该行上周重申对LME铜价的年终预期为每吨9700美元，并对铝保持看空立场。 ...

点击小程序查看报告原文 9月行业配置建议：成长风格延续，关注景气细分领域 8月A股市场普涨，科创风格表现强势。 8月上证指数仅有5个交易日下跌，市场交易热度较高，全部A股日均成交额达到2.3万亿元，两融余额达到2.2万亿 元，两融交易额占市场成交额比重持续上升。从结构维度看，科创板块是6月底以来市场上涨过程中表现最强势的主线，8月科创50指数上涨28%，伴随着 股价上行，投资者对涉及AI、半导体、先进制造等概念的叙事关注度显著提升。 去年924以来的上行趋势仍在延续，但也需注重近期成交较快上涨后的短期波动风险。 海外方面，美联储处于降息周期之中。中金策略团队缪延亮博士在 近期发布的《 牛市成因之辩——国际货币体系变迁视角 》中认为，"全球货币秩序重构是A股市场上涨的核心驱动力。全球货币秩序重构带来的格局转换 和资金流动的力量，或远大于一时、一国和一市场的基本面力量"。二季度以来美国需求下行压力增加，美联储主席鲍威尔在Jackson Hole会议上发表讲话 称"经济前景和风险平衡的转变可能意味着美联储需要调整货币政策"，释放偏鸽派信号。国内方面，需求端仍待改善，但受益于经济转型与产业升级的景 气行业增加，最近1 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 市场策略丨专题报告 [Table_Title] A 股周论：寻找中报的景气线索——"重估牛" 系列之基本面 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 中报业绩已经基本披露完毕，哪些方向景气度加速回升？1）A 股二季度营收和盈利均改善， "双创指数"表现靠前。2）从边际变化看，TMT 和地产的盈利（TTM）增速边际改善幅度较 大。长江一级行业层面，2025 年二季度盈利（TTM）增速靠前的行业主要有农产品、保险、综 合金融等。从盈利 TTM 增速的边际变化的角度看，即 2025Q2 相较于 2025Q1，房地产、计算 机、非金属材料、传媒互联网等行业边际改善幅度靠前。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 戴清 SAC：S0490524010002 SFC：BTR264 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title A 股周论：寻找中报的景气线索——"重估牛" 2] 系列之基本面 [Table_Summary2] 回顾：业绩增速的超预期与行业景气的可持续性为交易主线 过去一周，中报密集披露，市场情绪高涨，业绩与 ...