第一上海证券指出，当前时点，国产算力即将迎来破局时刻，新一代产品将在2026年陆续发布及上市， 国产算力在推理端将将迎来更广泛的应用。国内，字节、阿里等大厂将AI能力赋能到旗下全线应用产 品，据字节规划，其2026年日均Token消耗量有望实现10倍增长，而相应的推理算力需求也将实现5-10 倍的增长。建议关注核心算力硬件产业链，包括国产算力卡供应商，及上游晶圆代工厂。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 创业板50ETF国泰（159375）跟踪的是创业板50指数（399673），单日涨跌幅达20%，该指数从创业板 市场中筛选出流动性优异、市值规模领先的50只证券，集中反映具有高成长性和科技创新特质的上市公 司证券整体表现。指数成分以中大市值风格为主导，突出对行业创新动能与长期发展潜力的考量。 ...

上周A股市场延续震荡格局，指数表现分化、科技成长占优。尽管重要会议强调对拉动内需的支持，11 月M2和社融规模增速保持稳定，CPI数据也有所回暖，但当前资金依然更青睐科技板块。周内A股交投 活跃度有所回升，日均成交额升至1.95万亿元。风格上看，科技成长领涨而周期、消费普遍下跌。整体 体现为：成长>周期>消费>金融。 金鹰基金表示，近期多项重要会议与数据落地，国内方面，上周政治局会议、中央经济工作会议先后举 行，初步奠定政策基调并明确"扩大内需"、"人工智能+"、"着力稳定房地产市场"等结构性方向。数据 上，11月CPI有所回暖、M2和社融规模增速保持稳定，但居民消费动力仍不足。后续需关注财政提效、 货币适度宽松与结构性政策落地对市场的持续提振。 海外方面，美联储超预期鸽派降息，但联储内部分歧加剧，提前重启技术性扩表应对流动性紧张，资本 市场在降息呵护下软着陆。但上周五科技板块集体下挫，市场对AI泡沫的担忧仍存，市场或呈阶段性 震荡。后续关注本周将公布的11月非农数据、明年初美联储新任主席的提名情况，我们认为美联储在明 年年初降息暂歇后，仍会持续开启降息，温和通胀和疲弱就业或依然支持美联储保持降息路径。 关注 ...

本文来自格隆汇专栏：国泰海通策略方奕，作者：方奕、张逸飞、陶前陈、苏徽 摘要 在较长时间的横盘震荡后，中国"转型牛"将重振旗鼓，拾级而上。11月24日上证指数跌至3800点悲观之际，国泰海通策略团队判断"关键位置：进入击球 区，布出先手棋"，近两周以来创业板指已基本收复失地。对于后市，国泰海通比市场共识更乐观：部分投资者以"跨周期"解读政策不积极存在谬误， 2025年超常规是相较以2024年尾部风险暴露。面向2026年，中央经济工作会议明确"巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头"，并要求财政政策"更加积极"与"内需主 导"，首次提出"推动投资止跌回稳"（2025年负增长），并时隔十年重提房地产"去库存"；中财办副主任韩文秀表示将根据形势变化出台实施增量政策， 继续实施"国补"与靠前实施"十五五"重点项目，隐含了实现"十五五"良好开局的开门红重要性。考虑近期经济活动转淡与房地产销售面积下滑加快，政策 预期有望上修。在人民币稳定的前提下，2026年初中国央行降息预期有望提高。在交易层面，保收益降仓位已经步入尾声，岁末年初的再配置与机构资金 回流有望改善市场流动性和活跃成交，跨年攻势已经开始了。 春季行情规律：大盘搭台小盘唱戏 ...

Group 1 - The actual controller of Guao Technology will change to Xu Yinghui, a post-80s entrepreneur in the computing power industry, following the signing of a voting rights entrustment agreement with the previous controller, Chen Chongjun [2][3] - Xu Yinghui currently holds 4.50% of the company's shares directly, and with the voting rights entrusted to him, his total voting rights will amount to 24.41% [3] - Guao Technology plans to issue up to 40 million shares to Xu Yinghui at a price of 10.8 yuan per share, aiming to raise no more than 432 million yuan for working capital [3] Group 2 - Xu Yinghui's main holding company, Guanghui Shilian, has established computing power centers in 14 cities across China, focusing on key technology research in industrial computing [4] - Xu Yinghui has previously invested in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board company, Maixinlin, indicating his active role in the technology investment sector [4] - Guao Technology's main business includes financial equipment and derivatives, with a reported revenue of 298 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 47.60%, and a net loss of 351 million yuan [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the recovery of PPI as a significant macroeconomic theme for 2026, which is expected to strengthen corporate profitability and provide solid fundamental support compared to 2025 [7][19][20] - The report predicts that the net profit growth rate for the non-financial sector of the entire A-share market is expected to exceed 10% in 2026, driven by the recovery of PPI [20][22] - The report highlights that the recovery slope of PPI will depend on the degree of fiscal expansion, with a steeper recovery indicating stronger market performance [26][32] Group 2 - The report identifies key industry configurations for 2026, including sectors benefiting from U.S. interest rate cuts, external demand, AI, price increases, and an active capital market [8][19] - Specific sectors such as industrial metals, electric grid equipment, energy storage, battery materials, and certain chemicals are expected to benefit from increased external demand and U.S. capital expenditure expansion [8][19] - The report suggests that the technology sector, particularly in AI and robotics, will continue to see high demand and potential growth, with a focus on software, media, and innovative pharmaceuticals [8][19][40] Group 3 - The report anticipates that the first half of 2026 will present a favorable time window for growth performance, driven by domestic policy initiatives and external interest rate cuts [7][44] - The potential for a "spring rally" is highlighted, with expectations that it may occur earlier than usual due to clearer interest rate cut expectations and favorable market conditions [7][49] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the pace of resident deposit migration and foreign capital inflow as critical variables influencing market dynamics [7][36][41]

Group 1: Market Outlook - The report indicates that after a prolonged period of sideways movement, China's "transformation bull market" is expected to regain momentum and reach new heights, with a cross-year offensive already underway [1][3][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell to 3,800 points on November 24, which was seen as a critical position for market recovery, with the ChiNext Index having recently regained lost ground [7][9] - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need to consolidate and expand the positive momentum of the economy, calling for a more proactive fiscal policy and a focus on domestic demand [4][8] Group 2: Spring Market Trends - Historical analysis shows that spring market trends typically occur from December of the previous year to April of the current year, with a significant start point around 10-15 trading days before the Spring Festival [9][10] - The report notes that large-cap stocks tend to perform better before the Spring Festival, while small-cap stocks often outperform after the festival due to seasonal liquidity improvements [10][12] - The current market environment, characterized by significant prior adjustments and supportive policies, presents an important window for positioning ahead of the spring market [10][12] Group 3: Industry Comparisons - The report highlights a positive outlook for technology, financial services, and consumer sectors as the market transitions into a cross-year offensive [4][8] - In the technology sector, advancements in AI models and applications are accelerating, with a recommendation for investments in internet, media, computing, and competitive manufacturing sectors [4][8] - The financial sector is expected to benefit from deepened capital market reforms, with recommendations for brokerage and insurance stocks [4][8] - The consumer sector is showing signs of recovery after three years of adjustment, with recommendations for low-priced, low-inventory consumer stocks such as food and beverage, agriculture, and tourism services [4][8]

Core Conclusions - The overall valuation of A-shares has contracted this week, with the communication industry leading the gains. The U.S. has allowed Nvidia to export H200 chips to China, which is expected to drive incremental demand for communication equipment. The domestic GPU leader, Moore Threads, has gone public, boosting sentiment in the computing power sector. Currently, the overall dynamic PE of the communication industry is at the historical 36.6% percentile, while the communication equipment sector's dynamic PE is at the historical 97.9% percentile, indicating high profit growth expectations [1][8][10]. A-share Valuation Overview - The overall PE (TTM) of A-shares decreased from 22.14 times last week to 21.74 times this week, while the PB (LF) fell from 2.15 times to 1.77 times [10][12]. - The PE (TTM) of the ChiNext board decreased from 79.84 times to 72.27 times, and the PB (LF) dropped from 4.74 times to 4.27 times [18][20]. - The PE (TTM) of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board decreased from 255.36 times to 210.87 times, and the PB (LF) fell from 6.29 times to 5.17 times [22][24]. Relative Valuation Expansion in Computing Power Infrastructure - The relative PE (TTM) of computing power infrastructure, excluding operators and resource sectors, increased from 4.24 times last week to 4.47 times this week, while the relative PB (LF) rose from 4.42 times to 4.66 times [24][26]. Major Sector Valuation Levels - From a static PE (TTM) perspective, sectors such as consumer discretionary, consumer staples, midstream manufacturing, cyclical, and midstream materials have absolute and relative valuations above the historical median, with consumer discretionary, consumer staples, and midstream manufacturing exceeding the historical 90th percentile. Conversely, essential consumer sectors have absolute and relative valuations below the historical median, with financial services, essential consumer, and services sectors below the historical 10th percentile [28][29]. - In terms of PB (LF), resource, TMT, cyclical, and midstream manufacturing sectors have absolute and relative valuations above the historical median, while consumer discretionary, midstream materials, financial services, services, consumer staples, and essential consumer sectors have absolute and relative valuations below the historical median, with consumer staples and essential consumer sectors below the historical 10th percentile [28][29]. Industry Performance and Profitability - Current industries such as agriculture, public utilities, and oil and petrochemicals exhibit characteristics of low valuation and high profitability [54]. - Industries like building materials, power equipment, media, defense, and basic chemicals show both low valuations and high performance growth [57]. ERP and Equity-Debt Yield Spread - The non-financial ERP of A-shares increased from 0.83% last week to 0.87% this week, while the equity-debt yield spread improved from -0.15% to -0.12% [58][62].

半年多前，市场曾为一只"国产算力航母"的诞生而振奋。然而，这场备受瞩目的资本与产业整合大戏， 在走向高潮时戛然而止。 12月9日晚，海光信息与中科曙光双双发布公告，宣布终止筹划半年多的重大资产重组事项——即海光 信息换股吸收合并中科曙光。消息一出，资本市场迅速反应。12月10日，中科曙光开盘一字跌停，报收 于90.12元/股；海光信息则报收于218.5元/股，下跌0.36%。当天下午，两家公司负责人现身线上说明 会，将终止原因归结为"市场环境发生较大变化"及"各方视角不同导致未能成功"。 自重组预案披露以来，双方股价均大幅上涨超过60%，期间的巨大波动无疑给本就复杂的换股方案增添 了更多变数。股东方的复杂性也为重组增加了阻力。 二级市场的反应更是热烈。6月10日，两家公司披露换股吸收合并预案后股票复牌，股价双双大涨。海 光信息股价报收于141.98元，上涨4.3%；中科曙光更是一字涨停，收盘价为68.09元。 然而，这场备受瞩目的整合却在市场期待中走向搁浅。从上市公司公告来看，双方终止重组的原因中明 确提到了"市场环境较本次交易筹划之初发生较大变化，本次实施重大资产重组的条件尚不成熟"。海光 信息董事、总经理 ...

会议认为，资本市场在经济运行中的财富效应与预期管理作用十分关键。股市稳健运行有助于提升居民 财产性收入，增强消费能力和消费信心，从而对扩大内需形成正向拉动，成为经济复苏过程中不可忽视 的重要力量。在此背景下，资本市场若能实现平稳健康发展，将进一步强化经济循环的良性机制。 在对明年的经济工作部署方面，会议提出要继续把扩大内需作为重点方向，通过提振消费专项行动、城 乡居民增收计划以及相关政策优化，进一步增强消费对经济增长的贡献。创新驱动仍被视为经济发展的 核心动力之一。会议提出要加快培育壮大新动能，建设北京、上海和粤港澳大湾区国际科技创新中心， 大力发展新质生产力。这些部署对于人工智能、固态电池、生物医药、深海经济等新兴领域都具有重要 的指导意义，科技产业也因此有望继续成为2026年的关键发展方向，并在资本市场中保持较高的关注 度。 在结构改革方面，会议强调要深化改革攻坚，提升高质量发展的动力与活力。对于产能过剩较为突出的 行业，将继续推进去产能和行业结构优化，以促进光伏、算力、汽车、锂电池等产业的高质量发展。在 扩大高水平开放方面，会议提出要推动制度型开放，扩大服务业自主开放空间，优化自由贸易试验区布 局，扎实 ...

当A股市场在美联储降息的迷雾中反复震荡，万亿市值的算力龙头工业富联正呈现出基本面与股价背离 的独特景观——一边是订单及算力需求持续拉升的硬核业绩支撑，一边是短期资金避险引发的震荡调 整。近期，工业富联股价在64-68元区间反复拉锯，这份波动究竟是风险信号还是布局良机？在降息"靴 子"落地的关键节点，这家全球AI算力基础设施的核心供应商，正值得投资者重新审视。 多重利好共振，算力需求进入爆发周期 当下的算力行业，正处于政策、技术、需求三重利好驱动的超级风口。政策端，全球主要经济体纷纷将 AI算力基础设施建设提升至战略高度，国内"东数西算"工程持续落地，企业级AI算力部署补贴政策频 出，为算力硬件需求提供了坚实保障。技术端，GPT-4o等大模型持续迭代，多模态应用加速渗透，推 动AI算力需求从训练端向推理端全面扩散，而边缘计算、智能驾驶等新场景的兴起，更让算力需求呈 现指数级增长态势。 需求端的爆发尤为直观：全球头部云服务商集体开启"算力军备竞赛"，微软为支撑Copilot生态持续扩建 智算中心，谷歌加码AI训练集群，国内字节、腾讯的智算中心项目也进入密集交付期。作为这些巨头 的核心供应商，工业富联正站在需求爆发 ...