Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of Q3 performance, indicating a potential valuation shift in the new consumption sector [2] - The report highlights various sectors including paper manufacturing, exports, new tobacco, smart glasses, home furnishings, gold and jewelry, two-wheelers, pets, cross-border e-commerce, IP retail, and maternal and child products, each with specific insights and recommendations [2][3][4][5] Summary by Relevant Sections Paper Manufacturing - Overseas pulp mills continue to suspend operations, maintaining strong pulp prices. The report suggests monitoring companies like Sun Paper, Xianhe Co., and Nine Dragons Paper for potential recovery in cultural paper prices [2][3] Exports - The report notes renewed tariff disputes and emphasizes the importance of export leaders with sufficient overseas capacity. Companies like Craft Home and Yongyi Holdings are highlighted for their global layout [2][3] New Tobacco - HILO's entry into the European market is noted, with expectations for significant growth in Italy. The report suggests monitoring companies like Smoore International and China Tobacco Hong Kong [2][3] Smart Glasses - Meta's new product is experiencing high demand, indicating a potential breakthrough for the smart glasses industry. Companies like KANAT and Mingyue Optical are recommended for investment [2][3] Home Furnishings - The report indicates a weakening market in October, with expectations for further deterioration in the housing market. Companies like Gujia and Midea are suggested for their stable cash flow [2][3] Gold and Jewelry - The report notes strong sales during the National Day holiday, with brands like Chow Tai Fook expected to raise prices. Companies like Lao Pu Gold and Chow Sang Sang are highlighted for their growth potential [2][3] Two-Wheelers - Taotao Industry is projected to see significant profit growth, driven by electric low-speed vehicles. Companies like Yadea and Aima Technology are recommended for their market share potential [2][3] Pets - The report highlights strong sales performance during the National Day holiday, with brands like Desire and Frigat showing significant growth. Companies like Petty and Zhongchong are suggested for their competitive advantages [2][3] Cross-Border E-commerce - The report discusses the Amazon fall promotion and the increasing dominance of top sellers. Companies like Anker Innovations and Jihong Holdings are recommended for their global strategies [2][3] IP Retail - MINISO's new store format and Pop Mart's successful Halloween blind box sales are noted as trends in the retail sector. Both companies are suggested for their innovative approaches [2][3] Maternal and Child Products - The report emphasizes the deepening channel transformation in the maternal and child industry, with companies like Kidswant and Aiyingshi leading the way [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - As of October 10, 2025, the stock price of Shanying International (600567) has increased by 2.78% to 1.85 CNY, with a total market capitalization of 10.759 billion CNY, ranking 3rd in the paper industry and 1755th in the A-share market [1] Company Announcements Summary - As of September 30, 2025, a total of 878,259,000 CNY of the "Eagle 19 Convertible Bonds" has been converted, resulting in 494,821,672 shares being issued, which accounts for 10.77% of the total shares before conversion [1][3] - From July 1 to September 30, 2025, 862,087,000 CNY of convertible bonds were converted, leading to the issuance of 489,822,103 new shares, with 145,675,979 shares coming from the company's repurchase account [1][3] - The total share capital increased from 5,471,330,563 shares to 5,815,476,687 shares due to the conversion of bonds [1] - The controlling shareholder's stake was diluted from 29.90% to 28.13% as a result of the conversion [1][3] Share Buyback Progress - The company initiated a share buyback plan on June 23, 2025, with a budget of 500 million to 1 billion CNY, and a maximum buyback price of 2.50 CNY per share, aimed at employee stock ownership plans or convertible bond conversions [2] - As of September 30, 2025, the company has repurchased 145,213,438 shares, representing 2.65% of the total share capital, with a total expenditure of approximately 282.07 million CNY [2][3] - The highest repurchase price was 1.99 CNY per share, and the lowest was 1.87 CNY per share [2]

格隆汇10月10日丨晨鸣纸业(01812.HK)公告，为切实推动公司主要生产基地有序复工复产工作，增强公 司持续经营能力，妥善化解债务风险，潍坊、寿光两级政府专门设立了国有全资公司潍坊兴晨。为保障 公司生产经营的资金需求，潍坊兴晨与金融机构合作开展了专项用于本公司复工复产的人民币23.1亿元 银团贷款业务，各参团行均已完成对该银团贷款的审批。 为满足吉林基地生产经营的资金需求，潍坊兴晨全资附属公司吉林兴晨将与吉林银行股份有限公司吉林 吉营支行合作开展贷款业务。为保障业务顺利开展，公司拟为吉林兴晨提供连带责任保证担保，公司附 属公司吉林晨鸣拟以其持有的位于吉林市龙潭区晨鸣路1号土地及房产为吉林兴晨提供抵押担保，担保 金额不超过人民币2.4亿元，担保期限不超过5年。 潍坊兴晨及吉林兴晨均系潍坊市县两级政府为协助公司化解债务风险、推动复工复产而专门设立的国有 全资下属公司，集团拟为潍坊兴晨、吉林兴晨提供担保，旨在保障其融资业务顺利开展，为公司复工复 产提供稳定的资金支持，确保生产原料的及时采购与供应，有序推动公司各生产基地恢复正常生产，增 强公司的盈利能力和偿债能力，有效化解公司债务风险，实现持续稳健运营。潍坊兴晨 ...

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600793 | 宜宾纸业 | 23.80 | 5.36% | 12.07万 | | 2.87亿 | | 600966 | 博汇纸业 | 5.16 | 3.20% | 18.34万 | 9362.99万 | | | 002012 | 凯恩股份 | 5.54 | 2.21% | 13.07万 | 7221.21万 | | | 605377 | 华旺科技 | 9.46 | 2.05% | 1 22.88万 | | 2.15亿 | | 600308 | 华泰股份 | 3.65 | 1.67% | 18.76万 | 6822.56万 | | | 920394 | 民士达 | 42.64 | 1.50% | 1.79万 | 7619.35万 | | | 002521 | 齐峰新材 | 9.28 | 1.42% | 6.63万 | 6110.85万 | | | 600963 | 岳阳林纸 | 4.51 | 1.35% | 22.29万 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - Jingxing Paper's stock price has shown significant growth this year, with a year-to-date increase of 63.13%, indicating strong market performance and investor interest [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of October 10, Jingxing Paper's stock price was 6.46 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 9.182 billion CNY [1]. - The stock experienced a decline of 2.12% during the trading session, with a trading volume of 1.193 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 14.13% [1]. - Over the past five trading days, the stock has increased by 11.19%, and over the past 20 days, it has risen by 27.17% [1]. Group 2: Financial Metrics - For the first half of 2025, Jingxing Paper reported a revenue of 2.629 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 1.69%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 55.0338 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.37% [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 286 million CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 29.6064 million CNY distributed in the last three years [2]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of June 30, the number of shareholders for Jingxing Paper was 93,700, a decrease of 3.95% from the previous period, with an average of 11,948 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 4.11% [2]. Group 4: Business Overview - Jingxing Paper, established on November 1, 1996, and listed on September 15, 2006, primarily engages in the production and sale of industrial packaging paper, cardboard, and various types of household paper [1]. - The company's revenue composition includes 70.02% from raw paper, 14.39% from household paper, 6.72% from cardboard, 5.94% from other products, and 2.93% from recycled pulp board [1].

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by the General Administration of Customs regarding the importation of recycled paper pulp aims to enhance regulatory measures and prevent the entry of "foreign waste" into China, particularly focusing on the distinction between "dry" and "wet" processing methods [3][5][8] Summary by Sections Regulatory Changes - The new regulation requires importers to specify the processing method of recycled paper pulp as either "dry" or "wet" on customs declarations, which is intended to strengthen import supervision and management [3][5] - Since January 1, 2021, China has banned the import of solid waste in any form, aiming to curb the influx of foreign waste [3][4] Differences Between Processing Methods - "Dry" processing involves minimal purification, leading to the importation of contaminated materials, while "wet" processing includes thorough purification steps, resulting in higher quality recycled pulp [4][5] - Dry processed pulp is often referred to as "more dangerous foreign waste" due to its potential contamination with plastics, heavy metals, and microorganisms [4][5] Impact on the Industry - The new regulations are expected to increase the workload for importers, who must now ensure accurate reporting of their production processes, potentially leading to stricter inspections and higher compliance costs [5][6] - Companies relying on low-cost dry pulp may face increased raw material costs and production adjustments, prompting a shift towards higher quality recycled or virgin pulp [8] Long-term Implications - The announcement signifies the end of the "dry pulp" era, with expectations that it will reduce the import of low-quality materials and promote a transition to more environmentally friendly production methods [8] - The effectiveness of these regulations will depend on the enforcement and accompanying measures to ensure compliance and prevent fraudulent declarations [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by the General Administration of Customs marks the end of the era of dry pulp imports, aiming to regulate the import of recycled pulp and enhance supervision to prevent the entry of "foreign garbage" into China [1][6]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The new regulation requires importers to specify the production method of recycled pulp as either "dry" or "wet" on customs declarations, increasing the scrutiny of imported materials [1][4]. - The regulation is a response to the environmental hazards posed by dry pulp, which is essentially shredded solid waste, and aims to prevent the import of hazardous materials [2][3]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The new rules will increase the workload for importers, who must ensure accurate reporting of production processes and verify the sources of their materials, potentially leading to higher operational costs [4][8]. - Companies relying on low-cost dry pulp may face pressure to adjust their production processes or seek alternative raw materials, leading to short-term supply chain disruptions [8]. - Long-term, the regulation is expected to drive the industry towards greener practices, encouraging a shift from low-quality dry pulp to higher-quality recycled or virgin pulp, thereby improving overall product quality [8]. Group 3: Environmental Concerns - Dry pulp production lacks adequate purification processes, allowing contaminants like plastics and heavy metals to enter the production cycle, posing significant health and environmental risks [2][3]. - The previous lack of stringent checks on imported recycled pulp has led to the entry of solid waste under the guise of recycled materials, necessitating the new regulatory measures [3][4]. Group 4: Historical Context - The initial national standard for recycled pulp allowed for dry pulp to address fiber shortages in the paper industry, reflecting a balance between industry needs and environmental concerns at the time [5]. - The understanding of the risks associated with dry pulp was limited when the standards were set, leading to a regulatory framework that was more permissive than protective [5].

冠豪高新所属申万行业为：轻工制造-造纸-特种纸。所属概念板块包括：小盘、低价、电子发票、可降 解、融资融券等。 截至6月30日，冠豪高新股东户数4.46万，较上期减少2.11%；人均流通股39258股，较上期增加2.16%。 2025年1月-6月，冠豪高新实现营业收入34.03亿元，同比减少1.47%；归母净利润-5792.53万元，同比减 少168.35%。 分红方面，冠豪高新A股上市后累计派现11.43亿元。近三年，累计派现5.67亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年6月30日，冠豪高新十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第五大流 通股东，持股1240.43万股，相比上期减少112.80万股。 10月10日，冠豪高新盘中上涨2.18%，截至10:36，报3.28元/股，成交4384.97万元，换手率0.77%，总市 值57.41亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流入1.95万元，特大单买入249.79万元，占比5.70%，卖出143.56万元，占比 3.27%；大单买入808.26万元，占比18.43%，卖出912.55万元，占比20.81%。 冠豪高新今年以来股价涨5.47%，近5个交易日涨2.50% ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Shanying International has shown fluctuations with a recent increase of 2.19%, while the company faces a year-to-date decline of 4.59% in stock price, indicating potential volatility in the market [1]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Shanying International reported a revenue of 13.842 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.89%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 41.8154 million yuan, down 63.17% compared to the previous year [2]. - Cumulative cash dividends since the company's A-share listing amount to 1.807 billion yuan, with 46.1256 million yuan distributed over the last three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Shanying International is 189,100, a decrease of 5.84% from the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 6.20% to 28,929 shares [2]. - The third-largest circulating shareholder is Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 97.5038 million shares, which is an increase of 10.8828 million shares from the last period [3]. Market Activity - As of October 10, 2023, Shanying International's stock price is 1.87 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 148 million yuan and a turnover rate of 1.38%, leading to a total market capitalization of 10.875 billion yuan [1]. - The net inflow of main funds is 7.9853 million yuan, with significant buying and selling activities observed in large orders [1].

行业 纸浆月报 日期 2025 年 10 月 10 日 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635727 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅多晶硅） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 旺季提振有限，低位震荡调整 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summa ...