2025 年 12 月 08 日 胶版印刷纸：观望为主 石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0022533 shiyining@gtht.com 表 1：基本面数据(元/吨) | 市场 | 区域 | 纸种 | 2025/12/5 | 2025/12/4 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 70g天阳 70g晨鸣云镜 | 4475 4675 | 4475 4675 | 0 0 | | | 山东市场 | | | | | | | | 70g华夏太阳 | 4725 | 4725 | 0 | | 现货市场 | | 70g本白牡丹 | 4450 | 4450 | 0 | | | | 70g天阳 | 4400 | 4400 | 0 | | | 广东市场 | 70g晨鸣云豹 | 4600 | 4600 | 0 | | | | 70g华夏太阳 | 4700 | 4700 | 0 | | | | 含税收入 | 4738 | 4738 | 0 | | | 税前 | 含税成本 | 5212 | 5207 | 5 | | | | 税前毛利 | -474 | -469 | -5 ...

2025.12. 08 本文字数：639，阅读时长大约1分钟 作者 | 一财 阿驴 09:29 大金融板块继续走强，瑞达期货2连板，兴业证券、国信证券、华泰证券、湘财股份、国泰海通 等纷纷高开。 09:25 A股开盘丨三大指数集体高开 沪指高开0.16%，深成指高开0.24%，创业板指高开0.32%。盘面上，玻璃纤维股走强，商业航天，炒 股软件、券商、大飞机指数涨幅居前。 | 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | 1- 2 | 3909.23 | 6.42 | 0.16% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | | 13178.96 | 31.28 | 0.24% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | | 3119.15 | 9.85 | 0.32% | 个股方面，安妮股份一字涨停。公司公告，控股股东拟约7.72亿元转让15.92%股份，交易完成后公司 实控人将变更为李宁、王磊。 | R | 安妮股份 002235 | 造纸 10 | | 0.42% | | 同行对比 | ...

李宁户外首店开业，出口链关注恒林、永艺 ——轻工制造及纺服服饰行业周报 执业证书编号：S0740523030001 Email：zhangxiao06@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740520090002 Email：guomx@zts.com.cn 分析师：邹文婕 执业证书编号：S0740523070001 Email：zouwj@zts.com.cn 分析师：吴思涵 执业证书编号：S0740523090002 Email：wush@zts.com.cn | 上市公司数 | 167 | | --- | --- | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 11,746.96 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 9,246.51 | 2025-12-01 价格反弹》2025-11-25 裕元、敏华披露业绩》2025-11-16 轻工制造 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2025 年 12 月 07 日 | 评级： | 增持（维持） | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

轻工制造 2025 年 12 月 07 日 行 业 研 究 轻工制造 12 月浆价提涨关注造纸，智能手机销量向好 3C 包装龙头受益 30986 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 【周观点】①木片供应紧张推升浆价上涨，金鹰集团宣布 12 月亚洲地区阔 叶浆上调 20 美元/吨。加拿大个别针叶浆线预期停机，针叶浆价格止跌。 浆价上涨对木浆系形成成本支撑，前期提价有望落地，持续推荐太阳纸业。 ②据 Counterpoint Research，苹果 10 月的智能手机实际出货量同比增长 12%，市场份额 24.2%、创单月全球市场份额最高纪录，推荐裕同科技。 强于大市（维持评级） 一年内行业相对大盘走势 团队成员 | 分析师： | 李宏鹏(S0210524050017) | | --- | --- | | lhp30568@hfzq.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 汪浚哲(S0210524050024) | | wjz30579@hfzq.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 李含稚(S0210524060005) | | lhz30597@hfzq.com.cn | | 相关报告 1、轻工纺服行业周报 ...

财报数据显示，2021年博汇纸业实现营业收入162.76亿元，归母净利润17.06亿元，净利润同比增长 104.50%。2022年公司营收虽同比增长12.81%至183.62亿元，归母净利润却骤降86.63%至2.28亿元，呈 现"增收不增利"局面。 2023年，行业压力持续传导，博汇纸业归母净利润进一步下滑至1.82亿元，同比下降20.27%；全年营业 收入为186.93亿元，增速放缓至1.80%。进入2024年，公司实现营业收入189.30亿元，同比仅增长 1.27%，归母净利润1.76亿元，同比下降3.31%。 2025年前三季度，博汇纸业实现营业收入144.50亿元，同比增长3.46%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润 为1.21亿元，同比下降18.57%。 博汇纸业在公告中表示，上述投资项目建成后能够有效提高原材料自供比例，降低生产成本，提升核心 竞争力与影响力。项目建设期预计24个月，计划于2025年12月15日开工。 （文章来源：中国经营报） 12月3日，博汇纸业（600966.SH）发布公告，宣布拟投资17.01亿元对现有化学木浆生产线进行改扩 建。项目完成后，其化学木浆年产能将从当前的9.5万吨提 ...

研究所 强势反弹，基本面有所改善 ——国信期货纸浆周报 2025年12月5日 3 后市展望 目 录 CONTENTS 研究所 第 P 一 a 部 r 分 t1 行情回顾 一、本周行情回顾 研究所 纸浆期货主力合约SP2601底部强势反弹，速涨后略有回落。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：文华财经 国信期货 4 1 本周行情回顾 2 基本面分析 研究所 研究所 第 P 二 a 部 r 分 t2 基本面分析 二、基本面分析：纸浆市场价格 研究所 卓创资讯监测数据显示，截至12月4日，进口针叶浆周均价5488元/吨，较上周上涨0.44%，由跌转涨；进口阔叶浆周均价4454元/吨，较上周上涨1.46%， 由跌转涨。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：Choice 卓创资讯 国信期货 6 二、基本面分析：10月纸浆进口量环比下滑 研究所 据Europulp数据显示，2025年10月欧洲港口总库存环比下降10.22%，较2024年10月下降6.47%。10月除德国港口库存环比增加3.98%外，荷兰/比利时/法 国/瑞士、英国、意大利、西班牙港口库存分别 ...

南财智讯12月5日电，华旺科技公告，华旺科技股票代码605377，投资金额不超过人民币180000万元， 投资品种为安全性高、流动性好、投资期限不超过12个月（含）的银行理财产品及其他金融机构理财产 品，资金来源为自有资金，公司已于2025年12月5日召开第四届董事会第十四次会议审议通过该事项， 无需提交股东会审议。 ...

在"双碳"目标的宏观背景下，造纸和纸制品等资源循环利用产业正成为我国战略性新兴产业，受到了政 策的大力支持和重点培育，这也为林平发展等专注于资源循环利用的企业带来了重要的发展机遇。 近期，林平发展在上交所主板的上市进程迎来关键进展，将于12月11日接受上会审议。作为我国造纸行 业的优质企业，安徽林平循环发展股份有限公司深耕循环造纸领域多年，是一家集废纸利用、热电联 产、绿色造纸于一体的资源综合利用企业，其业务模式高度契合国家绿色发展战略，在行业转型中展现 出强劲的发展潜力。 行业规模领先，展现良好盈利能力和发展韧性 目前，我国造纸行业仍处于集中度低、中低端产品产能高的发展阶段。行业内多数企业规模较小，且技 术水平参差不齐。在此情况下，拥有较高的产能规模及生产水平的企业则更易实现成本控制与资源高效 利用，从而在市场竞争中占据优势地位。 林平发展凭借多年的深耕与积累，已形成规模化的循环造纸生产能力。公司主要从事包装用瓦楞纸、箱 板纸产品的研发、生产和销售，产销量位居行业前列。公司现有产能115万吨，2024年原纸产量合计达 101.97万吨，占安徽省纸及纸板产量和全国纸及纸板产量的比例为35.65%和0.75%， ...

Report Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillation [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Weak oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Oscillation [3] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillation [3] - CSI 500 Index: Rebound [3] - CSI 1000 Index: Rebound [3] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Downward [3] - Gold: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Silver: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Logs: Oscillation and bottom - building [4] - Pulp: Oscillation [7][8] - Offset paper: Oscillation [8] - Soybean oil: Range - bound operation [8] - Palm oil: Range - bound operation [8] - Rapeseed oil: Range - bound operation [8] - Soybean meal: Weak - biased oscillation [8][9] - Rapeseed meal: Weak - biased oscillation [8] - No. 2 soybeans: Weak - biased oscillation [9] - No. 1 soybeans: Weak - biased oscillation [9] - Live pigs: Strong - biased oscillation [9] - Rubber: Oscillation [10][11] - PX: Wide - range oscillation [11] - PTA: Oscillation [11] - MEG: Weak oscillation [11] - PR: Wait - and - see [11] - PF: Wait - and - see [11] Core Views - The iron ore market has an oversupply situation, with limited upward momentum for prices in the high - level range. The coal - coke market has a weak demand but short - term support at low levels. The steel market is in a bottom - oscillating state, and the glass market's future depends on cold - repair progress and macro factors. In the financial market, the short - term adjustment is expected, but the medium - term trend remains optimistic. The precious metals market is supported by long - term factors, with short - term disturbances from interest rate policies and risk - aversion sentiment. The light industry products like logs and pulp have their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends. The oilseeds and oils market is expected to continue range - bound operation, and the agricultural products market, such as live pigs, has specific supply - demand and price trends. The soft commodities and polyester products also have their own price trends based on supply, demand, and cost factors [2][3][4][7][8][9][10][11] Summary by Categories Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Global iron ore shipments increased by 44.7 million tons to 3.3232 billion tons, while the arrival volume at 47 ports decreased by 155.5 million tons to 2.784 billion tons. Daily hot - metal production dropped by 23,800 tons to 2.323 million tons. The demand core lies in real estate, with new construction at the 2005 level and weak domestic demand. Port iron ore inventory slightly increased to an 8 - month high. The oversupply pattern is hard to reverse, and although the probability of short - term negative feedback is low, the price oscillates in the high - level range with limited upward momentum [2] - **Coal and coke**: On December 1st, the first round of coke price cuts was implemented, and there are still expectations for further cuts. After continuous declines, the valuation of coking coal and coke has become reasonable and stopped falling this week. The National Development and Reform Commission's emphasis on energy supply during the heating season has reduced the expectation of new anti - involution measures in the coal industry. Some domestic coal mines are affected by safety inspections, with a slight decline in the weekly operating rate. The profit of some coking enterprises has improved, but the demand is weakening, and the game between steel mills and coking enterprises has intensified. There is still a need for inventory replenishment in the short term, providing support at low levels [2] - **Rolled steel and rebar**: The downstream demand is sluggish, and winter - storage replenishment has not started yet. The core lies in steel demand, with real - estate new construction at the 2005 level and weak domestic demand. Steel prices may stop falling if the output is reduced by more than 5% in the fourth quarter of 2025 and anti - involution policies are effectively implemented. Currently, the price is expected to remain at the bottom, with no significant change in supply and demand expectations, and attention should be paid to the impact of December's macro - policy expectations on winter storage [2] - **Glass**: There are supply - side disturbances. It is expected that three production lines in Hubei will undergo cold - repair in December, but there are rumors of a delay. The price in the Shahe area has weakened again, and the futures price is running weakly. The total inventory of float - glass sample enterprises has decreased, reaching the lowest level since October. The real - estate completion decline has dragged down demand, and whether the price can stop falling depends on the cold - repair progress and macro factors [2][3] Financial - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day saw the CSI 300 Index up 0.34%, the SSE 50 Index up 0.38%, the CSI 500 Index up 0.24%, and the CSI 1000 Index up 0.01%. There was capital inflow in the engineering machinery and semiconductor sectors and capital outflow in the catering, tourism, and retail sectors. There are various exchanges and communications between Chinese and American enterprises and organizations, and relevant policies and statements are also involved. The market is in short - term adjustment, but the medium - term trend is optimistic, with the high - tech industry continuing to grow [3] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond increased by 2bps, FR007 rose by 1bp, and SHIBOR3M remained unchanged. The central bank conducted 180.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse - repurchase operations on December 4th, with a net withdrawal of 175.6 billion yuan. The spot - bond interest rate is consolidating, and the market trend shows a slight rebound [3] Precious Metals - **Gold**: In the context of high interest rates and globalization reconstruction, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central - bank gold purchases. The US debt problem has damaged the dollar's credit, highlighting gold's de - fiat - currency attribute. In a high - interest - rate environment, gold's substitution effect for bonds is weakened, and its sensitivity to US Treasury real interest rates has decreased. Geopolitical risks and China's physical - gold demand support the price. The logic behind the current gold - price increase remains unchanged, with short - term disturbances from the Fed's interest - rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment. The Fed has cut interest rates twice this year, and factors such as non - farm data and inflation data also affect the market [4] - **Silver**: Similar to gold, it shows a strong - biased oscillation trend, affected by the Fed's interest - rate policy, risk - aversion sentiment, and economic data [4] Light Industry - **Logs**: The daily average shipment volume at ports last week was 613,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 31,000 cubic meters from the previous week. The national daily average outbound volume was stable above 600,000 cubic meters but decreased last week. The volume of New Zealand's logs shipped to China in October increased by 2% compared to the previous month, while China's coniferous - log imports decreased by 4.67% from the previous month and 7.14% year - on - year. The expected arrival volume last week decreased by 48%. The port inventory decreased by 600,000 cubic meters. The spot - market price is running weakly, and the price of 4/6 - meter medium - grade A logs has decreased. The supply pressure has improved, with downstream demand mainly for rigid needs and weak cost support. The price is expected to oscillate and build a bottom [4][7][8] - **Pulp**: The spot - market price continued to show a strong trend in the previous trading day, with the price of some softwood - pulp spot markets rising by 20 - 150 yuan/ton and that of hardwood - pulp by 20 - 50 yuan/ton. The latest FOB price of softwood pulp remained at $680/ton, and that of hardwood pulp increased by $10 to $550/ton, strengthening the cost support for pulp prices. The profitability of the paper - making industry is low, and paper mills have high inventory pressure, with low acceptance of high - priced pulp. The demand is weak, and although traders have raised their quotes, downstream procurement is rational. The price is expected to return to oscillation [7][8] - **Double - offset paper**: The spot - market price stabilized in the previous trading day. The production of double - offset paper is expected to be stable, with little change in the supply side. The publication tenders are basically over, and orders are expected to increase, which is beneficial for paper - enterprise sales. Large - scale paper enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices, and the price may be raised at the beginning of the month. The price is expected to maintain oscillation in the short term [8] Oilseeds and Oils - **Oils**: US soybean crushing reached a record high, but the US biodiesel policy is uncertain. In October, the production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil were higher than expected, and the export in November decreased by 19.7% month - on - month. However, palm oil is supported by the expected production reduction due to floods in Southeast Asia and the postponement of EU policies. A large amount of soybeans are arriving in China, the oil - mill operating rate is high, and although the oil inventory has decreased, the supply is abundant. The demand may gradually pick up, and with cost support, the oil market is expected to continue range - bound operation, with attention paid to the weather in the Brazilian soybean - producing area and the production - sales changes of Malaysian palm oil [8] - **Meals**: The US soybean production, exports, and ending inventory have all been adjusted downward, with a structurally tight supply, but the global soybean supply is still relatively abundant. The Sino - US trade agreement may promote US soybean exports to China, but US soybeans are more expensive than Brazilian ones, and the US biodiesel policy is uncertain, resulting in uncertain demand prospects. The weather in the Brazilian soybean - producing area is generally favorable, while that in the Argentinean area is uneven. The domestic oil - mill operating rate is high, and a large amount of imported soybeans are arriving. The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and although the demand from the breeding industry supports feed consumption, the breeding efficiency is poor, and feed enterprises are cautious in procurement. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, with attention paid to the weather in South American soybean - producing areas and the progress of Sino - US trade [8][9] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs nationwide is 124.62 kg, and it is showing a downward trend in most provinces this week. Due to the lag in the monthly slaughter progress, breeding enterprises are accelerating sales, increasing the supply of live pigs. Retail farmers are mainly slaughtering large - weight pigs, which do not fully match market demand. Slaughtering enterprises are more inclined to purchase from large - scale farms, leading to a slight decrease in the trading weight, which may continue to decline slightly in the next week. The average settlement price of live pigs at key slaughtering enterprises nationwide is 12.09 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.84% from the previous period. The settlement price is continuously falling. The average operating rate of slaughtering enterprises nationwide is 38.92%, a 0.7 - percentage - point increase from last week. The supply of live pigs is generally abundant, and with the temperature drop, the terminal consumption has slightly recovered, increasing the orders of slaughtering enterprises and supporting the slight increase in the operating rate. However, the operating rate is expected to weaken next week. The profitability of self - breeding and piglet - fattening has decreased, and the decline in breeding costs is less than that in sales revenue. The average weekly price of live pigs is expected to continue to decline in the next week [9] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: In the Yunnan rubber - producing area, the weather is average, and the raw - material price is stable, with the factory price increase driving up the raw - material price. In Hainan, the weather is good this week, but the output has decreased due to temperature. Affected by continuous rain and typhoon weather, the overall glue output is lower than the same period in previous years. The production and purchase costs of local processing plants have slightly increased, providing support for the price. In Thailand, there is a lot of rain, and the average weekly price has reached 57 Thai baht/kg, with both the glue and cup - lump prices rising. In Vietnam, the raw - material supply in the southern area is gradually recovering, while other areas are still affected by rainfall. The total inventory is at a low level. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 66%, and that of full - steel tire sample enterprises is 62%. The capacity utilization rate decreased this week due to short - term maintenance plans in some enterprises, but it will gradually recover. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in October, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.35 million and 3.32 million vehicles respectively, with a slight month - on - month increase and a record - high year - on - year increase. The natural - rubber inventory is increasing significantly, with the total social inventory reaching 1.08 million tons, a 1.7% increase from the previous period. Both bonded and general - trade warehouses are accumulating inventory, and it is in the seasonal inventory - accumulation period. The weakening of raw - material procurement prices and the inventory - accumulation trend suppress price increases, and with weak demand - side support, the natural - rubber price is expected to show a wide - range oscillation [10][11] Polyester - **PX**: Geopolitical instability has led to supply risks, and with the Fed likely to cut interest rates in December, oil prices have rebounded. The current PX supply is high, but the downstream polyester load has rebounded, which is beneficial for PX demand. The PXN price difference is temporarily stable, and the PX price is oscillating widely [11] - **PTA**: The wide - range oscillation of oil prices has affected the PX end, causing the cost of PTA to loosen. Although the short - term supply - demand situation of PTA has improved, the industry's seasonal weakness is inevitable, and the supply - demand situation will deteriorate in the future. The processing margin is still low, and the spot price is expected to mainly follow the cost - side fluctuations in the short term, with the spot basis fluctuating within a range [11] - **MEG**: In the long - term, the inventory - accumulation pressure of MEG still exists, but the situation has improved in the near - term due to a reduction in some supplies. Attention should be paid to the continuous changes in the supply side. As the port inventory increases, the liquidity of goods in the market has increased, and the MEG spot basis has weakened. In the short term, the MEG price is expected to oscillate weakly, with continuous upward pressure [11] - **PR**: The terminal performance remains weak, and the order - taking pressure of factories and traders has increased. With weak raw - material support, the polyester - bottle - chip market may oscillate weakly [11] - **PF**: The upward trend of oil prices continues, and the current supply - demand structure of polyester staple fiber is acceptable. However, the market is in a wait - and - see state [11]

造纸行业成本高企、盈利承压，博汇纸业（600966.SH）却逆市加码。12月3日晚间，公司公告称，拟 投资17.01亿元扩建化学木浆项目，产能从现有9.5万吨跃升至32万吨，增幅高达237%。 公告称，为调整现有原材料产品结构，提高原料、产品多样化，博汇纸业决定在现有厂区内利用已有生 产线，规划年产32万吨化学浆项目。在现有年产9.5万吨化学木浆技改工程基础上进行改扩建，项目建 成后，由原年产9.5万吨化学木浆技改工程扩建至32万吨产能，项目总投资17.01亿元。 这一扩建绝非简单的产能叠加。化学木浆是生产白纸板、文化纸、箱板纸的核心原料（占造纸总成本 50%-70%），此前博汇纸业依赖外购木浆，易受国际浆价波动冲击。扩建后，化学木浆自给率提升将会 增强其成本管控能力，同时为高端纸种（如食品级白卡纸、特种文化纸）提供原料支撑，推动产品附加 值升级。 "项目是公司调整现有原料产品结构，提高原料、产品多样化的一项重要举措，更能迎接市场挑战、更 能构筑产品竞争力、更能体现清洁生产、循环经济理念，践行科学发展观。"公告称，本项目化学浆生 产线，基于已有生产线的技术积累，采用国际先进的工艺技术和装备，并配置最新的自动化 ...