Core Viewpoint - The Eurozone economy unexpectedly contracted in May, with the services sector experiencing its worst performance in 16 months, overshadowing a slight improvement in manufacturing [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Activity - Eurozone private sector activity unexpectedly shrank in May, primarily due to weak performance in the services sector [5]. - France's economic activity has contracted for nine consecutive months, with a composite PMI rising slightly from 47.8 in April to 48 in May, still below the 50 threshold [4][7]. - Germany's PMI data also disappointed, with a decline in the services sector, although infrastructure reforms and military rebuilding plans by the new government may provide future support [10]. Group 2: PMI Data - The Eurozone composite PMI fell from 50.4 in April to 49.5 in May, below analysts' expectations of 50.6 [6]. - The services PMI preliminary value was 48.9, lower than the expected 50.5 and previous value of 50.1 [6]. - The manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4, slightly above the expected 49.2 and previous value of 49 [6]. Group 3: Sector Performance - The weak performance of the services sector is the key factor leading to the overall PMI decline, indicating a more challenging road to recovery for the Eurozone economy [5]. - Despite the overall poor data, the Eurozone's manufacturing sector showed improvement, marking the first time since the pandemic began that manufacturing outperformed services [5]. - In Spain and other Southern European countries, performance was relatively better, with strong tourism demand reported by Ryanair Holdings Plc [13].

记者 辛圆 在商务部周四举行的例行记者会上，发言人何咏前回应了下一步提振消费的具体工作安排。 何咏前首先提到，要加快实施提振消费专项行动，不断增强国内大循环的内生动力。升级商品消费，实施消费品以旧换新，组织开展汽车流通消费改革试 点，利用好进博会、消博会等平台促进消费。 何咏前表示，根据相关部门统计，2024年9月到2025年4月，家电类商品零售额连续8个月保持两位数增长，4月份限额以上单位家电和音像器材类商品零售额 同比增长了38.8%，在16大类消费品增速中位列第一。 除了商品消费，她还提到，要扩大服务消费，围绕"对外开放、对内放开"，稳步推进服务业扩大开放综合试点示范，深入实施服务消费提质惠民行动，扩大 健康、养老、托幼、家政等服务多元化供给。培育新型消费，因地制宜推进首发经济，促进健康消费，发展数字消费、绿色消费。 第二方面，何咏前表示，要加快完善现代商贸流通体系，不断夯实国内大循环的成长基础。鼓励升级流通设施，扩大商贸流通试点城市范围，逐步构建以示 范步行街或商圈为引领、特色商业街区为支撑、便民生活圈为基础的城市商业格局，推动县域商业提质增效，鼓励批发零售业转型升级。 另外，她提到，加快发展数智供应 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy Shift - The Federal Reserve's adjustment of monetary policy is a response to strategic missteps over the past few years, particularly regarding inflation predictions [5][8] - The Fed's balance sheet expanded from $4.2 trillion to $9 trillion due to unprecedented monetary easing measures taken during the COVID-19 pandemic [5] - The Fed's previous belief that inflation was a temporary phenomenon overlooked significant structural changes in the global economy, including supply chain vulnerabilities and energy crises [8][10] Group 2: Global Economic Changes - The pandemic exposed the fragility of global supply chains, exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, leading to increased energy and raw material supply tensions [6][8] - The future economic landscape is characterized by a bifurcation between Western economies, facing high inflation and low growth, and East Asian economies, which may experience low inflation and growth due to overcapacity [10][11] - The divergence in economic conditions highlights deep-seated structural issues and increasing economic disparities between different regions [13][19] Group 3: Future Economic Order - The Fed's policy transformation signals a shift from monetary stimulus to industrial restructuring, indicating that future economic rules will extend beyond simple monetary policy [15][18] - Western economies need to invest in innovation and manufacturing to address challenges posed by high inflation and interest rates, while East Asian economies must shift from export reliance to domestic consumption [16][18] - The ongoing global economic restructuring is likely to lead to a multipolar international monetary system, diminishing the dollar's dominance and increasing the role of emerging markets [19][21]

Core Insights - The UK business environment showed signs of improvement in May, despite worsening conditions in the manufacturing sector [1] - The composite PMI data rose from 48.5 in April to 49.4 in May, approaching the growth threshold of 50 [1] - The service sector, which dominates the UK economy, is slowly returning to growth, contrasting with significant job losses in manufacturing [1] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing sector experienced its largest employment decline since May 2020, contributing to a drag on the manufacturing index [1] - The pace of layoffs in manufacturing reached the highest level since the global financial crisis nearly 20 years ago [1] Economic Outlook - Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, noted that while positive news on tariffs and trade has helped restore some business confidence, overall confidence in future economic prospects remains low [1]

英国5月服务业PMI初值为50.2，预期50，前值49；英国5月制造业PMI初值为45.1，预期46，前值45.4。 ...

PMI显示，欧元区5月商业活动意外收缩 金十数据5月22日讯，调查显示，欧元区10月商业活动意外重陷萎缩，因欧元区主要服务业需求进一步 下滑，不过制造业显示出进一步企稳的迹象。欧元区综合PMI初值从4月的50.4降至49.5。服务业PMI从 50.1降至48.9，为2024年1月以来的最低水平，远低于升至50.3的调查预估。"欧元区经济似乎无法找到 立足点。"汉堡商业银行首席经济学家赛勒斯•德拉鲁比亚表示："自1月份以来，整体PMI仅显示出最微 弱的增长迹象，而5月份，私营部门实际上陷入了收缩。" ...

澳大利亚统计局数据显示，4月就业人数激增89000，远高于3月的36400增幅和预期的20000，而失业率 保持在4.1%不变，显示澳大利亚劳动力市场仍然强劲。 5月份澳大利亚制造业采购经理指数为51.7，与之前的数据相同。与此同时，服务业PMI从先前的51.0下 降至5月份的50.5，而综合PMI在5月份降至50.6，较之前的51.0有所放缓。 美国经济增长放缓的担忧与澳洲相对强劲的就业数据形成鲜明对比，这种基本面差异可能继续支撑澳 元。然而，若全球贸易紧张局势再度升级，或美联储暂停降息步伐，可能打断当前上升趋势。 周四（5月22日）亚洲时段，澳元/美元保持坚挺，并朝0.6450水平迈进，最新澳元兑美元汇率报 0.6440，涨幅0.12%。尽管美元普遍走弱，但进一步降息的可能性、重燃的美中贸易紧张局势以及疲软 的澳大利亚初步采购经理人指数数据对澳元构成不利影响。 从日线图来看，澳元/美元在经历4月初的急剧下跌后，已形成明显的底部结构并稳步回升，当前澳元对 美元汇率接近0.6450水平。日线技术指标显示看涨基调，因为该货币对维持在九天指数移动平均线 （EMA）上方，而14天相对强弱指数（RSI）保持在50中立 ...

需要谨慎乐观地实施未来货币政策。 日本央行审议委员野口旭：服务业价格稳步上涨很重要。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic data in April showed a two - sided nature. The domestic economy demonstrated strong resilience under tariff shocks, with high - speed consumption growth and better - than - expected exports. However, the recovery momentum needed to be strengthened, as indicated by the decline in manufacturing PMI, low price indices, and low real - estate new construction and investment growth rates. The overall macro - economic situation was bottom - supported but lacked upward momentum, and macro - policies were required to enhance market confidence. Despite the setbacks, the macro - economy and asset prices in 2025 were expected to continue the upward - repair trend [3][36][38]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Manufacturing PMI Significantly Declined under Tariff Shocks - In April, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. The PMIs of large, medium, and small enterprises were all below the critical point and declined compared to the previous month. Among the 5 classification indices of manufacturing PMI, the supplier delivery time index was above the critical point, while the production, new order, raw material inventory, and employee indices were below it [4]. - The non - manufacturing business activity index in April was 50.4%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month but still above the critical point. The construction and service industries also declined. With the reduction of Sino - US tariff rates, the manufacturing PMI in May was likely to rise [7]. 2. CPI and PPI Continued to Be Weak in April - In April 2025, the national CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year and increased by 0.1% month - on - month. The CPI was weak due to insufficient domestic demand. The PPI decreased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month. The decline in coal and crude oil prices in April dragged down the PPI, reflecting weak domestic demand and relative over - capacity in corresponding industries [8][9][11]. 3. Exports Increased by 8.1% Year - on - Year in April, while Imports Decreased by 0.2% - In April, exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year, with a 4.3 - percentage - point decline in growth rate compared to the previous month. Imports decreased by 0.2% year - on - year, with the decline significantly narrowing by 4.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. The trade surplus was $96.18 billion, a decrease of $6.46 billion from the previous month. Exports to the US decreased by 21% year - on - year. Despite the impact of tariffs, the high export growth rate might be related to "entrepot trade" and "rush - to - export" by enterprises. With the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, exports were expected to maintain high growth in the next few months [14][16]. 4. The Credit Structure in April Was Weak, while M1 and M2 Were in an Improving Trend - In the first four months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 16.34 trillion yuan, 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. The credit structure was weak, as the confidence and credit demand of residents and enterprises were weakened by tariffs, but the significant increase in government bond issuance offset the decline in credit demand. M1 and M2 were in an upward trend overall [19][24]. 5. Industrial Production Was Stable, and Consumption Growth Remained High - In April, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.1% year - on - year and 0.22% month - on - month. The total retail sales of consumer goods in April were 3.7174 trillion yuan, a 5.1% year - on - year increase. The consumption growth rate remained high due to consumption - promotion policies, but the sales of automobiles and petroleum products dragged down the growth [25]. 6. Real - Estate Sales Adopted a Strategy of Trading Price for Volume and Had a Foundation for Stabilization - From January to April, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 2.8% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased by 3.2% year - on - year, with the decline rates narrowing. The real - estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year - on - year. The real - estate market was expected to further narrow the decline in sales area and volume year - on - year. After the "policy bottom" in September 2024, the "market bottom" of this real - estate downward cycle was emerging, and the overall drag of real estate on the macro - economy would significantly narrow [27][31][35]. 7. Summary and Outlook - The macro - economic data in April showed two - sided characteristics. The domestic economy was resilient but lacked recovery momentum. The overall macro - economy was bottom - supported but lacked upward momentum. The domestic market had sufficient policy space to hedge against external demand decline through stimulating domestic demand. The macro - economy and asset prices in 2025 were expected to continue the upward - repair trend [36][38].

Macro and Strategy Research - In April 2025, the industrial added value increased by 6.1% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 5.2% but lower than the previous value of 7.7% [2] - The retail sales of consumer goods grew by 5.1% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 5.5% and previous 5.9% [2] - Fixed asset investment accumulated a year-on-year growth of 4.0%, which is lower than both the expected 4.2% and the previous value of 4.2% [2] - The production growth rate of nearly 80% of industries slowed down due to tariff impacts, with industrial enterprises' export delivery value growth dropping significantly by 6.8 percentage points to 0.9% [2] - The service industry production index grew by 6.0% year-on-year, with modern service sectors like information technology and finance showing relatively fast growth [2] Consumption Trends - The year-on-year growth rate of retail sales of consumer goods slowed down in April, primarily due to a decline in automobile consumption driven by price reductions [3] - The "old-for-new" policy continued to boost furniture and home appliance consumption, while rising gold prices increased jewelry consumption [3] - Service retail sales from January to April grew by 5.1% year-on-year, outpacing the growth of goods retail sales by 0.4 percentage points [3] - May is expected to see an increase in retail sales growth due to holiday consumption and the continuous refinement of national policies to expand domestic demand [3] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment growth slightly decreased in April, with manufacturing investment dropping by 1.0 percentage points to 8.2% year-on-year [4] - Infrastructure investment growth fell by 3.0 percentage points to 9.6%, with central government-led investments in electricity, heating, and water declining [4] - Real estate investment growth saw a year-on-year decline of 1.3 percentage points to -11.3%, with sales in major cities stabilizing [4] - The central bank's further reduction of mortgage rates may not yield immediate effects, and real estate investment growth is expected to remain at a low level until urban renewal projects progress [4] Fixed Income Research - The issuance scale of credit bonds decreased, with corporate bonds seeing zero issuance and a reduction in company bonds, medium-term notes, and directed tools [6] - The net financing amount of credit bonds decreased, with corporate bonds and short-term financing bonds showing negative net financing [6] - The secondary market saw an increase in transaction amounts, with credit bond yields showing differentiation [6] - The overall conditions for a bear market in credit bonds are not sufficient, and long-term yields are expected to enter a downward channel [6] Industry Research - The Guinea government has reclaimed 51 mining licenses, impacting the mining sector [10] - The steel industry faces short-term pressure due to increased rainfall in southern regions, affecting demand [10] - The copper market is influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and export behaviors, with prices expected to fluctuate [10] - The aluminum market is supported by improved US-China trade relations, but domestic demand is entering a low season [10] - The gold market may experience fluctuations influenced by US economic data and geopolitical situations [10] - The lithium market is facing oversupply, with export behaviors impacting demand [10]