调研报告-PTA 华东聚酯产业链下游 | [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] | | PTA: | | 震荡 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 4 | 月 | 28 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★终端五月压力仍存，开工率可能继续向下调整 目前前往美国的的织造订单基本全停，已生产但未发出的货物都 积压在生产企业和贸易商的仓库里。面对关税的冲击，有渠道的 企业尝试拓展其他国家的市场或者转为内销。部分企业找海外代 加工渠道，但能转移的订单量有限。产成品积累的情况下，加弹 厂和织造厂五一期间基本都有 3-7 天放假计划。五月内销也是步入 淡季，内外销综合压力下，五月织造产业可能面临进一步挑战。 能 ★下游阶段性采购下，化纤厂库存高位有所去化 源 化 工 织造企业普遍认为当下原料价格已经是低位，四月底可以看到化 纤厂产销阶段性有明显放量，库存高位去化，聚酯降负预期有所 改善。但本轮补货更多是绝对价格偏低刺激下游刚需补货，如果 终端织造五月负荷继续下调，两环节的矛盾可能会进一步积累。 ★关税博弈可能 ...

一、主要会计数据和财务指标 前十大流通股东累计持有： 100452.73万股，累计占流通股比： 66.45%，较上期变化： -2721.59万股。 | 名称 | 持有数量(万股) | 占总股本比 | 增减情况 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 例(%) | (万股) | | 庄奎龙 | 33752.18 | 22.33 | 不变 | | 新凤鸣（603225）控股集团有限公司 | 23569.39 | 15.59 | 不变 | | 桐乡市中聚投资有限公司 | 15367.97 | 10.17 | 不变 | | 屈凤琪 | 10171.67 | 6.73 | 不变 | | 上海胜帮私募基金管理有限公司-共青城胜帮凯米投资合 伙企业(有限合伙) | 7295.30 | 4.83 | -980.96 | | 桐乡市尚聚投资有限公司 | 3570.34 | 2.36 | 不变 | | 吴林根 | 2087.41 | 1.38 | 不变 | | 桐乡市诚聚投资有限公司 | 1711.86 | 1.13 | 不变 | | 香港中央结算有限公司 | 1560.32 | 1.03 | -17 ...

| 股票代码：603225 | 股票简称：新凤鸣 | | | 公告编号：2025-049 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 转债代码：113623 | 转债简称：凤 | 21 | 转债 | | 新凤鸣集团股份有限公司 2025 年一季度主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 新凤鸣集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）根据《上海证券交易所上市 公司自律监管指引第 3 号行业信息披露：第十三号——化工》要求，现将 2025 年一季度主要经营数据披露如下： 一、主要产品的产量、销量及收入实现情况 | 主要产品 | 2025年1-3月 产量（万吨） | 2025年1-3月 销量（万吨） | 2025年1-3月 营业收入（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | POY | 129.97 | 97.14 | 620,898.41 | | FDY | 40.22 | 27.08 | 185,414.23 | | DTY | 24.85 | 18 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company achieved an annual revenue of 67.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.1 billion yuan, up 1.3% year-on-year [4][6] - In Q4 alone, the company generated revenue of 17.89 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.6% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.2%. The net profit for Q4 was 350 million yuan, a significant increase of 77.9% year-on-year and 151.8% quarter-on-quarter [4][6] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.225 yuan per share, totaling 336 million yuan [4][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 67.09 billion yuan for 2024, with a gross profit of 3.777 billion yuan, resulting in a gross margin of 5.6% [9] - The net profit margin for the year was 1.6%, showing limited changes compared to the previous year [9] - For Q4, the gross margin improved to 5.7%, with a net profit margin of 2.0%, indicating a year-on-year increase of 1.2 percentage points [9] Industry Outlook - The demand for polyester filament is expected to improve, with a projected growth in apparent consumption in China reaching 42 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.7% [9] - The industry is entering a phase of reduced capacity expansion, with a forecasted decline in annual capacity growth of 2.3% for 2024 [9] - The report anticipates that the industry will see a tightening supply-demand balance, leading to an upward trend in market conditions [9] Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.43 billion yuan, 1.86 billion yuan, and 2.28 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [9]

期货研究报告|PX&PTA&PF&PR 周报 2025-04-27 5-9 月差走强，关注五一织造放假情况 策略摘要 基本面方面，特朗普对中国关税态度有所缓和，但问题依旧没有有效解决，直接出口 美国的纺服订单依然处于暂停状态，聚酯减产预期压制市场心态，关注后续中美谈判 情况，PX 和 PTA 依然维持低估值和去库状态，但在汽油弱势和需求预期偏弱的情况下 反弹幅度也有限，近期关注原油和宏观变动。短纤方面，当前美国关税逐步向好发 展，市场心态走稳，但追高意愿不足，五一期间部分纱厂有放假计划，原料囤货意愿 一般，行情维持震荡盘整。PR 方面，关税政策对瓶片自身需求影响较小，但瓶片负荷 回归高位，瓶片工厂加工区间有限，市场价格预计仍跟随原料成本波动。 核心观点 ■ 市场分析 成本端，原油价格先涨后跌。当前供需面多空消息交织，一方面宏观影响油价走势。 美伊及俄乌地缘政治风险降温。同时多个 OPEC+成员国计划在 6 月会议上提议加快增 产速度，原油供应压力持续；不过下半周特朗普表示不会解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，市 场恐慌指数回落，同时也表示将对中国关税大幅下降，宏观情绪改善推动油价反弹。 汽油和芳烃方面，汽油裂解偏弱运行， ...

申银万国期货指出，随着关税逐步来临，纺织布匹订单量减价跌，需求后劲不足。供应方面，PTA检修 较多，据卓创统计检修量在600万吨左右，使得供应压力有所减轻，成本端PX因库存累库，价格上涨乏 力，总体来看，成本支撑不足，需求后续乏力，预计PTA期现价格维持弱势。 宁证期货表示，织造负荷下降，聚酯和织造库存均出高位，PTA库存也高位。目前聚酯工厂开工处于高 位，但涤纶长丝装置已出现减产降负动作，需求端预期承压。PTA跟随原油波动。策略上，短线交易为 佳。 目前来看，PTA行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于PTA后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 华联期货分析称，供应端本周预计福建百宏重启，产量或有所回升，总体供应偏高。需求方面聚酯产量 高位持稳，但终端江浙地区织造开工率继续降低，纺织品受关税问题影响明显，新单下达推进有限。 PTA行业库存继续下降但终端长丝库存明显回升。原油再次受OPEC+增产影响承压。总体看供应高位需 求端不同产品线有分化，库存向下游转移，继续关注原油及外围关税问题影响。操作方面激进型轻仓持 空，期权方面少量看涨期权对冲，2509合约压力位参考4450附近。 周五夜盘，国内期市能 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 23.80 RMB [8][9]. Core Views - The company reported a slight decline in revenue for 2024, with a forecasted revenue of 1.07 billion RMB, down 14.1% year-on-year, but a net profit increase of 9.6% to 320 million RMB [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from the downstream demand for PA66 and recycled materials, with industrial AI business anticipated to drive new growth [1][4]. - The gross margin has been improving, reaching 68.4% in Q4 2024, up 28.8 percentage points year-on-year, indicating enhanced profitability through technological improvements [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenues of 1.07 billion RMB, with a net profit of 320 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decline in revenue but an increase in net profit [1]. - The gross margin for the new materials and synthetic materials segments improved significantly, with gross margins of 48.7%, 39.8%, and 43.1% for different segments, showing a year-on-year increase [2]. - The financial expense ratio decreased due to increased interest from deposits, while operating cash flow saw a decline of 24.9% year-on-year [3]. Growth Prospects - The industrial AI segment is projected to grow, with a revenue increase of 12.4% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in this area [2]. - The company has signed a contract for a nylon project worth 170 million RMB, which is expected to contribute positively to future revenues [4]. - The company’s earnings forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are adjusted to 380 million RMB, 460 million RMB, and 550 million RMB respectively, reflecting a slight downward revision [5]. Valuation - The company is assigned a valuation premium with a target price set at 23.80 RMB based on a 20x PE ratio for 2025, despite a slight reduction from the previous target of 25.20 RMB [5]. - The expected PE ratio for 2025 is 20x, with a projected EPS of 1.19 RMB [5][7].

Group 1 - The company plans to apply for a comprehensive credit limit not exceeding RMB 200 million to meet operational funding needs and optimize financing allocation [1] - The specific credit amount will depend on the actual approval from financial institutions and the company's operational requirements [1] - The board of directors has authorized the management to handle various financing activities within the approved credit limit [1] Group 2 - The company announced the provision for asset impairment due to significant declines in the prices of key raw materials and underperformance of certain subsidiaries [3][5] - The total impact on net profit from the impairment provisions is estimated to be RMB 22.68 million, affecting the equity attributable to shareholders by RMB 22.48 million [4][5] - The board and supervisory committee have approved the asset impairment provisions, ensuring compliance with accounting standards [6][8] Group 3 - The company intends to hire Zhongxinghua Accounting Firm for the 2025 financial report and internal control audit, replacing the previous auditor Tianzhi International [11][12] - The change in auditors is due to the regulations regarding the selection of auditors for state-owned enterprises and listed companies [12][21] - The new auditor has a strong background in auditing listed companies and has no conflicts of interest [18][19] Group 4 - The company plans to provide guarantees for its subsidiaries, with a total guarantee amount not exceeding RMB 110.74 million for 2025 [39][41] - The guarantees are intended to support the subsidiaries' operational funding needs and are subject to shareholder approval [40][42] - The board believes that the guarantees are necessary for the subsidiaries' business operations and do not harm the interests of the company or its shareholders [54][55]

也在同日，两家碳纤维龙头企业发布了2025年第一季度以及2024年财报。 【DT新材料】 获悉，4月24日， 中复神鹰 、 吉林化纤 同日发布高层变动公告，原因都是 达到法定退休年龄。 其中， 中复神鹰 总经理刘芳 女士 辞职，公司董事长张健女士代行总经理职责。 吉林化纤 副总经理孔玉影 女士 辞职。 营销方面，公司3K小丝束碳纤维产品销量同比增长35%，高模系列碳纤维产品销量同比增长超 20%；国内T800 级以上高强中模碳纤维销量占比位居行业首位。 2025年，公司锁定重点及新兴领域，聚焦航空航天、风电、光 伏、汽车、体育器材、低空经济等碳纤维需求旺盛的领域。 其中， 吉林化纤 2025年第一季度 营收12.14亿元，同比上升32.39%；归母净利润为826.98万元，同比下降 60.59% 。 2024 年 ， 实 现 营 收 38.83 亿 元 ， 同 比 上 升 3.93%； 实 现 归 母 净 利 润 2888.41 万 元 ， 同 比 下 降 13.90%；实现扣非归母净利润2636.99万元， 同比上升76.88% 。 其中， 碳纤维 营收占比8.24%，同比下滑12.59%，主因行业阶段性供 ...

| 股票代码：603225 | 股票简称：新凤鸣 | | | 公告编号：2025-046 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 转债代码：113623 | 转债简称：凤 | 21 | 转债 | | 新凤鸣集团股份有限公司 2024 年年度主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 | 主要原料 | 2024年1-12月 不含税平均进价 | 2023年1-12月 不含税平均进价 | 变动比率（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （元/吨） | （元/吨） | | | PTA | 4,838.95 | 5,190.37 | -6.77 | | MEG | 4,045.70 | 3,595.02 | 12.54 | | PX | 7,010.12 | 7,449.37 | -5.90 | 1 特此公告。 新凤鸣集团股份有限公司董事会 2025 年 4 月 25 日 2 一、主要产品的产量、销量及收入实现情况 | 主要产品 | 2024年1 ...