Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "stronger than the market" rating [6] Core Views - Precious metals prices have retreated due to increased margin requirements and a stronger US dollar, which has suppressed speculative demand [2][14] - Industrial metals, particularly copper, are expected to see price increases supported by government subsidies for old-for-new exchanges, despite current high prices [3][15] - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain volatile at high levels due to slowed inventory depletion and moderate demand recovery [4][21] - Rare earth prices are generally strong, while tungsten prices have decreased by 1.1% [4][23] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices are limited by a stronger dollar and rising US Treasury yields, with margin requirements for futures contracts being raised to cool speculative activity [2][14] - Key stocks to watch include Zijin Mining, Zhongjin Lingnan, and others in both A-shares and H-shares [2][14] Industrial Metals - The continuation of old-for-new subsidies is expected to stimulate demand for copper and aluminum, with copper prices anticipated to rise despite current high levels [3][15] - Key stocks include Jiangxi Copper, Luoyang Molybdenum, and others [3][15] New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain high due to supply uncertainties and moderate demand recovery, with strategic investment opportunities in lithium stocks [4][21] - Key stocks include Ganfeng Lithium, Tianhua, and others [4][22] Other Minor Metals - Rare earth prices are generally strong, with specific increases in praseodymium and neodymium prices, while tungsten has seen a slight decline [4][23] - Key stocks to monitor include Hunan Gold, China Rare Earth, and others [4][26] Weekly Market Review - The non-ferrous index increased by 0.4%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, with lithium battery materials showing the largest gains [27][28] - Top gainers include Jiangxi Copper and Yinbang [37]

A-share Market Insights - The market is expected to transition from "consolidation" to "spring rally" as the year-end approaches, with high-quality A-share assets offering attractive value globally [1][2] - Key investment directions include: 1) long-term opportunities in technology growth assets, 2) cyclical sectors with strong pricing power driven by supply-demand imbalances, and 3) blue-chip assets favored by long-term institutional investors [2] Hong Kong Market Insights - The influx of southbound capital is accelerating, providing solid financial support for the Hong Kong market [2] - The easing of US-China trade tensions is likely to boost market risk appetite, while the anticipated December interest rate cut and balance sheet expansion by the Federal Reserve will enhance global liquidity, benefiting Hong Kong stocks [2] US Market Insights - Despite stable earnings projections for US stocks in 2025, valuation and market concentration have returned to historical highs, indicating potential for increased volatility [2] - Earnings growth in 2026 is expected to continue, driven by sustained AI demand, reduced tariff risks, and accommodative monetary and fiscal policies [2] - Investment strategies may focus on two main themes: 1) ongoing narratives in technology stocks, particularly in AI, and 2) recovery opportunities in cyclical sectors, especially in midstream manufacturing and essential consumer goods [2] Domestic Bond Market Insights - The domestic bond market is entering a phase characterized by "weak economic recovery, stable yet easing policies, and central bank caution against excessive moves" [3] - The central bank's commitment to maintaining stable interest rates will limit the downward movement of long-term rates, leading to a range-bound market [3] - Investors are advised to shift focus from capital gains to coupon income and liquidity management, while closely monitoring potential signals from the central bank regarding long-term yield guidance [3] Commodity Market Insights - The ongoing anti-involution policies warrant attention to the actual implementation of capacity reduction measures [4] - Oil prices are under short-term pressure due to geopolitical tensions easing and OPEC+ shifting towards supply expansion [4] - Industrial metals are expected to see demand recovery driven by improved global economic growth forecasts, with supply-side disruptions likely to reshape the supply-demand landscape [4] - Gold's monetary attributes may continue to be favorable amid ongoing government leverage, particularly in the US, where long-term deficit rates are challenging to reduce [4]

Group 1: Gold Market Outlook - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves to 74.12 million ounces as of November 2025, marking a continuous increase for 13 months [1] - The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by a total of 75 basis points since September 2025, with expectations of two more cuts in 2026, which may support gold prices [1] - Experts predict that gold prices may stabilize at around $5,000 per ounce in 2026, with potential to rise to $6,000 if geopolitical tensions worsen or if the Fed accelerates rate cuts [1] Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - The global silver market is expected to face a structural supply deficit of approximately 9.5 million ounces in 2025, continuing a five-year trend of supply shortages [2] - Silver prices have shown high volatility, recently reaching a record high of $83 per ounce before retreating below $80, reflecting a more elastic price response compared to gold [2] - The demand for silver is bolstered by its industrial applications, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, where annual consumption exceeds 200 million ounces [2] Group 3: Deposit Rate Trends - Deposit rates for fixed-term savings have entered a "1" digit era, with significant declines in high-interest products like large-denomination certificates of deposit [3] - The trend of declining deposit rates is expected to continue due to a loose monetary policy aimed at stabilizing economic growth and reducing financing costs [3] - The likelihood of deposit rates increasing in 2026 is low, with expectations of stability or slight declines instead [3] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Industrial metals such as copper and aluminum are expected to see demand growth driven by sectors like renewable energy and automotive lightweighting [4] - The storage chip industry is highlighted as a significant investment opportunity in 2026, with a potential "super cycle" driven by AI advancements [4] - Investors are advised to consider ETFs related to chips or semiconductors for diversified exposure to the industry [4] Group 5: Risk Management in Investment - Experts emphasize the importance of risk management in asset allocation for 2026, given the increased geopolitical risks and market volatility [5] - Investment strategies should focus on long-term, stable asset allocation rather than high-leverage, high-volatility opportunities [5] - A "barbell strategy" is recommended, balancing high-dividend assets for stable cash flow with investments in technology growth funds during market corrections [6]

在阅读文章前，辛苦您点下"关注"，方便讨论和分享。作者定会不负众望，按时按量创作出 更优质的内容 金属价巨震藏陷阱？ 先别急着割肉emo，听我唠唠——这波巨震顶多是"上涨路上的小插曲"，相当于游戏闯关时遇到个小 boss，根本改不了最终通关的大趋势！核心原因就俩，听懂你就稳了。 第一个关键buff：全球央行都在"放水"送福利！你就想，美联储、中国央行、欧洲央行这三大巨头，相 当于全球经济的"总开关"。 美国已经连着三次降息了，特朗普还亲自把关新美联储主席人选，放话"不降息就别来"，加上通胀压力 小了，2026年接着降息几乎是板上钉钉，高盛这些大投行都预测要降1-3次。 咱们央行也明确说了，2026年继续适度宽松，简单说就是"钱可能更值钱"，欧洲央行早就降了八九次， 利率低到地板价，经济没起色肯定不敢随便加息。 文 |小戎 哈喽，大家好，小戎这篇国际评论，主要来分析黄金白银铜价高位巨震后，为何上涨趋势仍未改变，帮 大家理清市场脉络。 家人们谁懂啊！12月30号凌晨的贵金属市场，简直比过山车还刺激！黄金跌了4.5%，白银更狠，伦敦 现货直接跌9%，创下2021年以来最惨单日跌幅，这波操作把不少投资者整懵了："这是 ...

Precious Metals - The report highlights that gold remains a strong investment, with central banks continuing to increase their gold holdings, and gold ETFs experiencing sustained inflows during the interest rate cut cycle, indicating a bullish trend for gold prices [1][20] - Silver is expected to see significant price increases, driven by financial demand rather than industrial demand, with the gold-silver ratio indicating that silver is undervalued compared to gold [1][20] Industrial Metals - Copper is projected to experience a bullish market due to a clear supply-demand gap, supported by macroeconomic factors such as tariff reductions and increased capital expenditures, alongside strong demand from the energy and AI sectors [2][3] - Aluminum supply may face constraints due to high demand from data centers, with potential production risks and a tightening global supply-demand balance expected in 2026 [3] - Tin supply is limited due to global resource scarcity, while demand is expected to rise from the semiconductor and AI sectors, leading to a price increase [4] - Nickel prices are anticipated to recover as supply disruptions in Indonesia continue to impact the market [4] Energy Metals - Lithium demand is expected to surge, particularly from energy storage applications, with supply growth projected to slow down due to reduced capital expenditures by producers [7] - Cobalt prices are likely to rise due to export controls from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which will create a supply gap that cannot be compensated by increases in Indonesian production [8] Minor Metals - Tungsten prices are expected to rise due to persistent supply-demand imbalances, with limited new supply expected before 2027 [9] - Antimony prices are projected to remain high due to rigid supply constraints and potential easing of export controls, which could enhance price elasticity [10] - The rare earth sector is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics, with prices likely to rise as demand from electric vehicles and robotics increases [11]

来源：新浪新闻 #今年黄金白银还涨吗# 【2026年，黄金白银价格还涨吗？】#专家谈20206年黄金价势#据中新网，2026 年，贵金属价格是否继续上涨？有哪些投资标的值得关注？普通人该如何投资理财？据央行公布的数 据，截至2025年11月末，中国黄金储备规模达到7412万盎司，环比增加3万盎司，已连续第13个月增持 黄金。美联储自今年9月以来已累计降息75个基点，市场普遍预计，2026年美联储可能再进行约两次降 息。 万喆也提醒，白银市场已连续多年处于结构性短缺状态，在2026年仍具备较强的基本面支撑，但其价格 波动幅度预计将明显高于黄金。 与此同时，白银的工业属性近年来持续强化。在新能源产业带动下，光伏产业对白银的需求快速增长， 目前每年光伏领域对白银的消耗量已超过2亿盎司。此外，电子元器件等制造领域对白银的需求也在同 步上升。 0 6 @每日经济新闻 I T PARTS IN BE 8 の駅 65 @每日经济新闻 北京师范大学教授万喆在接受记者采访时表示，央行持续购金仍是支撑黄金价格的重要因素。从宏观环 境看，美联储已进入降息周期，实际利率下行将降低持有黄金的机会成本，对金价形成中长期支撑。同 时，全球 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the contrasting performance in global capital markets in 2025, with significant gains in AI hardware, precious metals, and geopolitical tensions driving asset prices up, while many retail investors faced losses due to market volatility [1][2] - Investor Achen achieved impressive returns across various asset classes, emphasizing a disciplined and structured asset allocation strategy rather than speculative trading [1][3] Investment Performance - Achen's stock account yielded a 45% return, driven by a focus on the AI hardware supply chain and a strict dynamic rebalancing strategy [3] - The performance of precious metals was influenced by geopolitical events, with silver rising 140% and gold 60%, the latter being a more planned investment based on macroeconomic trends [2][19] - The 15% return from the "Anzheng Changying" fund was viewed as a stabilizing force within Achen's overall portfolio, providing a buffer against market volatility [6][31] Risk Management - Achen's investment philosophy redefines risk, focusing on the ability to preserve wealth against inflation and market downturns rather than merely avoiding losses [6][39] - The structured account system divides roles among different asset classes, with equities as the offensive component, ETFs as a defensive measure, and precious metals providing protection during market turmoil [7][26] Future Strategy - Looking ahead to 2026, Achen plans to adopt a more conservative approach, reducing exposure to precious metals and reallocating profits into lower-volatility assets to enhance portfolio resilience [11][34] - Achen emphasizes the importance of a tiered asset allocation strategy that aligns with individual financial goals and risk tolerance, advocating for a balanced approach to avoid extreme risk exposure [12][40] Conclusion - The narrative underscores the value of stability and long-term survival in investing, contrasting with the prevalent pursuit of high returns in volatile markets [14][44] - Achen's experience serves as a reminder that true investment success lies in maintaining a sustainable strategy that prioritizes wealth preservation over short-term gains [14][46]

Market Performance - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results on January 2, 2026, with the Nasdaq down 0.03%, the S&P 500 up 0.19%, and the Dow Jones up 0.66% [1] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 4.38%, marking a strong start to the year [5] Notable Stock Movements - ASML and Micron Technology saw significant gains, with ASML rising nearly 9% and Micron up over 10%, both reaching historical highs [2] - Tesla's stock fell by 2.59% to $438.07, resulting in a market capitalization loss of $38.75 billion (approximately 271 billion yuan) [2] - Tesla reported a 16% year-over-year decline in Q4 2025 delivery volume, with total annual deliveries down 8.6% [2] Chinese Tech Stocks - Chinese tech stocks performed well, with Baidu up 15%, Bilibili and NetEase rising over 7%, Alibaba increasing over 6%, and JD.com up nearly 3% [7] Investment Outlook - Analysts suggest that the strong performance of Chinese assets at the start of 2026 indicates a continuation of the structural bull market from 2025, with a focus on sectors like semiconductors, AI, and smart hardware [10] - Goldman Sachs predicts a 38% upside potential for the Chinese stock market by the end of 2027, citing improved market investability and reduced core risks compared to previous years [10] Commodity Prices - Gold prices experienced a sudden drop, trading at $4,332.85 per ounce after briefly surpassing $4,400 [11] - WTI crude oil futures settled down 0.17% at $57.32 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures fell 0.16% to $60.75 per barrel [15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the continued strength of precious metals, particularly gold, driven by geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts in the U.S. [1] - As of the last trading day, spot gold rose by 0.33% to $4,332.88, with a significant annual increase of 64% in 2025, following a record high of $4,549.95 per ounce on December 26 [1] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may implement at least two rate cuts of 25 basis points each, making non-yielding gold more attractive to investors [1] Group 2 - Other precious metals have shown even stronger performance, with spot silver increasing by 1.66% to $72.8 per ounce, and platinum rising by 3.5% to $2,125.80, both reaching historical highs [2] - In 2025, silver and platinum outperformed gold, with silver's annual increase exceeding 147% and platinum's rising by 127%, driven by supply constraints and industrial demand [2] - Palladium also maintained its strong momentum, rising nearly 2% to $1,636.43 per ounce, with a total annual increase of 76%, marking the largest annual gain in 15 years [2]

Core Viewpoint - Gold and silver are experiencing volatility as traders assess the potential market impact of the upcoming commodity benchmark index weight adjustments, which may lead to significant selling pressure from passive funds [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 2, gold initially rose by 1.9% but closed with a modest gain of 0.2% at $4,328.35 per ounce, while silver peaked at a 4% increase before settling at $72.61 per ounce, up 1.3% [1]. - The Bloomberg Commodity Index's annual weight reset will result in over $6 billion in gold futures and more than $5 billion in silver futures being sold during a five-day roll period from January 8 to 14 [4][5]. Group 2: Selling Pressure - TD Securities warns that approximately 13% of the total open interest in the Comex silver market will be sold in the next two weeks, potentially leading to a significant downward price revaluation [4]. - The weight adjustment will see silver futures' index weight drop from 9% to just below 4% by 2026, necessitating the liquidation of over $5 billion in positions [5]. Group 3: Seasonal Trends and Predictions - Historical data indicates that gold prices typically rise by an average of 4.6% during the last ten trading days of the year and the first twenty trading days of the new year, with an 80% probability of price increases [6]. - Despite the seasonal bullish trend, the substantial technical selling pressure from index rebalancing may counteract these seasonal gains, particularly for silver, which faces greater selling pressure than in previous years [6]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Major investment banks remain optimistic about gold's long-term prospects, anticipating further price increases, especially with expected interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [7]. - Goldman Sachs projects gold prices could rise to $4,900 per ounce, citing factors such as central bank purchases, loose monetary policy, and geopolitical tensions as key drivers [7].