Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Strong Buy" rating for Tencent Music [1][7]. Core Insights - Tencent Music, backed by Tencent, has a solid content copyright advantage and is leveraging innovative technologies like AIGC to enhance member benefits, which is expected to further increase the paid user rate and ARPU [1][7]. - The company is projected to achieve revenue growth from 310 billion to 376 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with adjusted net profits expected to rise from 89 billion to 110 billion CNY during the same period [7][8]. Company Overview - Tencent Music Entertainment Group was established in 2016 through the merger of Tencent and China Music Corporation (CMC), which had long-term agency agreements with nearly 100 record companies, holding a vast library of over 20 million licensed songs [7][13]. - The company has built a strong content barrier by integrating QQ Music and CMC, covering most core copyright resources and maintaining deep collaborations with major labels [7][13]. Core Business - The core business is divided into online music services and social entertainment services, with online music becoming the main growth driver, accounting for over 54% of total revenue in 2024 [7][24]. - Online music service revenue is expected to reach 217.4 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 25.5%, driven by an increase in paid users and average revenue per user (ARPU) [24][30]. Industry Analysis - Tencent Music is positioned as a leader in the online music market, holding approximately 70% market share, and is compared to global leaders like Spotify and Apple Music, with significant room for growth in paid user rates [7][49]. - The report highlights the increasing maturity of domestic users' willingness to pay, which, combined with diversified member benefits, is expected to drive further growth in paid user rates and ARPU [7][62]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts total revenue for Tencent Music to reach 30,957 million CNY in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 9%, and adjusted net profit to reach 8,897 million CNY, reflecting a 16% increase [8][24]. - The PE ratio is projected to decrease from 22.8 in 2025 to 18.4 by 2027, indicating a favorable valuation trend [8][24].

Core Viewpoint - NetEase Cloud Music has filed a lawsuit against Tencent Music Entertainment and its subsidiaries for abusing market dominance, with the case set to be heard on June 5 in the Zhejiang Provincial High Court [1] Company Summary - The lawsuit involves multiple parties, including Hangzhou NetEase Cloud Music Technology Co., Ltd. and Hangzhou LeDu Technology Co., Ltd. as plaintiffs, and Dongyang Huanyu Film and Television Culture Co., Ltd., Tencent Music Entertainment (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd., and Tencent Music Entertainment Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd. as defendants [1] - Dongyang Huanyu Film and Television Culture Co., Ltd. was established in August 2012, with a registered capital of 30 million RMB, and is co-owned by Yu Zheng, Yang Yin Feng, and a limited partnership [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][9] Core Views - The company's game business is showing steady growth, with a diversified content strategy [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 28.83 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 7.4% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 7.8% [4] - The gross profit for Q1 2025 was 18.48 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 64.1%, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 0.7 percentage points [4] - The adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 was 11.24 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 32.0%, with a net margin of 39.0%, up 7.3 percentage points year-over-year [4] Summary by Sections Game Business Performance - The revenue from games and related services in Q1 was 24 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 12.1% [5] - Key titles contributing to revenue include "Identity V," which was the main revenue driver, and several new games like "Marvel Showdown" and "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds" performing well in the market [5] - Long-term operational games are showing stable performance, with titles like "Identity V" and "Naraka: Bladepoint" maintaining steady revenue streams [5] Youdao Business Strategy - Youdao's business is advancing its "AI-native" strategy, achieving a gross margin of 47.3% in Q1 [6] - The strategy focuses on AI-enabled products and services to drive intelligent transformation across various industries [6] Cloud Music Operations - Cloud Music achieved a gross margin of 36.7% in Q1, with a focus on community ecosystem building to enhance user engagement [7] - The platform is leveraging AI capabilities for song recommendations and content creation, enriching its creator ecosystem [7] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 113.86 billion yuan, 118.78 billion yuan, and 124.09 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 38.81 billion yuan, 39.92 billion yuan, and 41.31 billion yuan [8] - The company expects a year-over-year revenue growth of 8.1% in 2025, followed by 4.3% and 4.5% in the subsequent years [11]

qoq+2.7%）。我们预期随着SVIP 更高ARPPU 的会员套餐渗透率提升，25Q2 公司ARPPU 将持续提升， 或达11.6 元/月，MPU 或达1.24 亿。 Q1 社交娱乐收入15.5 亿人民币（yoy-11.9%, qoq-4.6%），同比减少主要系对直播互动功能进行了调整 和更严格的合规程序所致。我们预期25Q2 收入或达15.5 亿元（yoy-11%，qoq+0%），同比下滑主要系 公司合续缩紧叠加宏观因素导致。 随着在线音乐付费用户、ARPPU 双增，公司在线音乐收入在整体结构比重持续提高，利润率端有望持 续优化。我们预计 25-27 年归母净利润分别为104/101/112 亿元(25-26 年原预测值为 76/91 亿元，因根据 财报上调arppu，毛利率、其他收益等调整盈利预测)。因25 年有高额其他收益，我们参照可比公司，给 予26 年27 倍P/E，目标价94.86 港币(87.26 人民币)，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 机构：东方证券 研究员：项雯倩/李雨琪/金沐阳 Q1 营收73.6 亿人民币(yoy+8.7%, qoq-1.4%)，Q1 毛利率44.07% (yoy+3. ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley suggests that investors can buy US stocks on dips following Moody's downgrade of the US rating [2] - The Reserve Bank of Australia emphasizes that maintaining low and stable inflation is a top priority [2] - Danske Bank delays expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut due to easing recession risks [2] Group 2 - CITIC Securities highlights the continuous catalysts in the nuclear fusion sector, indicating strong growth prospects [2] - CITIC Construction Investment notes that the global online music industry is experiencing both volume and price increases, building long-term growth potential [2] - Galaxy Securities reports that positive factors in the banking sector are accumulating, with improvements expected [2] - Tianfeng Securities mentions that Xiaomi's self-developed chips may accelerate changes in the competitive landscape of high-end domestic smartphones [2] - Zhongtai Securities anticipates structural market opportunities in the vitamin sector due to price increases and performance realization [2] - Everbright Securities sees potential acceleration in the commercialization process, focusing on the application of exoskeleton robots in medical rehabilitation [2] - Guotai Junan Securities indicates that the liquor industry is seeking a bottom in its cycle, highlighting its investment value [2]

金融界5月20日消息，周一港股承压低开后下挫，恒科指曾跌超2%，随即跌幅收窄，恒指及国指午后一 度翻红，最终均小幅收跌；周二开盘，港股恒生指数涨0.28%报23398.35点，恒生科技指数涨0.22%报 5266.61点，国企指数涨0.31%报8486.65点，红筹指数涨0.24%报3866.97点。 中信建投：国内音乐行业需求稳定，两大龙头通过社区建设和独立音乐内容扶持实现差异化，双龙头具 有长期成长潜力。看行业，相比长视频，国内音乐平台具有更良性的增长环境。一方面，音乐平台受益 于更高的迁移成本、更长的内容生命周期、更强的付费粘性；另一方面，短视频为音乐平台提供高效宣 发渠道，两者并非竞争关系。而独家版权终结降低成本压力，监管引导良性竞争，激发增长潜力。看增 长，海外产品提升增长想象空间。Spotify 的高付费率打开国内龙头收入增长空间；扶持独立音乐人策 略增强对全球三大唱片公司的议价能力，打开毛利率空间。随着国内双龙头聚焦在线音乐主业的"付费 会员和 ARPPU"双轮驱动，在良性竞争环境和行业格局下，看好业绩可持续增长。 本文源自：金融界 作者：青枫 华泰证券：往前看，美国对华关税水平低于市场预期，出 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][12][13] Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 28.829 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 7.4% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 7.8%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 10.301 billion yuan, with a year-over-year increase of 34.9% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 17.5% [4][8] - The gaming business showed strong growth, with revenue from games and value-added services reaching 28.83 billion yuan, driven by new game launches and a robust strategy of "refinement and longevity" [8][10] - The company is expected to continue focusing on innovation and long-term operations, enhancing the gaming experience for global players [8][10] Financial Performance - Key financial metrics for Q1 2025 include: - Revenue: 28.829 billion yuan (YoY +7.4%, QoQ +7.8%) - Net profit: 10.301 billion yuan (YoY +34.9%, QoQ +17.5%) - Non-GAAP net profit: 11.237 billion yuan (YoY +32%, QoQ +16.1%) - Gross margin: 64.1% (YoY +0.7pct, QoQ +3.3pct) [4][8] - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 601.54 billion HKD, with a current share price of 190.00 HKD [6][8] Business Segments - **Gaming Business**: Revenue from gaming and value-added services was 28.83 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 68.8%. New games contributed significantly to revenue growth, with titles like "Marvel Duel" and "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds" achieving notable success [8][10] - **Youdao**: Revenue for Q1 2025 was 1.298 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.7% year-over-year. However, operating profit increased significantly, indicating improved financial efficiency [8][10] - **NetEase Cloud Music**: Revenue was 1.858 billion yuan, down 8.4% year-over-year, but cost control measures led to a gross margin of 36.7% [8][10] - **Innovative and Other Businesses**: Revenue decreased by 17.6% year-over-year to 1.624 billion yuan, with a focus on high-quality products and services [8][10] Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are as follows: - 2025: 1140 billion yuan - 2026: 1239 billion yuan - 2027: 1303 billion yuan - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2025: 39 billion yuan - 2026: 43.5 billion yuan - 2027: 46.1 billion yuan [11][12]

报告摘要 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 事件： 1Q25业绩略超彭博一致预期：实现收入73.6亿元人民币（yoy+8.7%，vs彭博一致预期+7.5%）；实现毛利润 32.4亿元，同比提升17.0%，对应毛利率为44.1%（vs彭博一致预期44.0%），环比提升0.5pct；实现经调整净利 润22.3亿元（yoy+22.8%），实现经调整归母净利润21.2亿元（yoy+24.6%，vs彭博一致预期+14.0%），对应利 润率为28.9%。股东回报方面，公司于25Q1从公开市场以约6450万美元现金回购总计590万股ADS，并已于25 年4月支付2.75亿美金年度现金股利。 1Q25公司音乐订阅业务稳步增长，社交娱乐业务降幅优于预期 在线音乐收入58.0亿元（yoy+15.9%），占总收入比例同比提升6.7pct至78.9%，增长主要得益于订阅和广告收 入的强劲增长，艺人周边及线下演出收入亦贡献一定增量。1）会员订阅收入42.2亿元（yoy+16.6%），音乐 MAU达5.55亿人（yoy-4.0%），期末订阅付费用户数达1.23亿人，同比增长8.3%，环比24Q4期末净增加190万 人，增长主要得 ...

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Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music (TME.US/1698.HK) with a target price of $18 or HKD 70, indicating a potential upside of 26% and 28% respectively from current prices [3][5][7]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 reached RMB 73.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, slightly above market expectations. The adjusted net profit was RMB 21.2 billion, exceeding market expectations by 5.1% [1][3]. - Online music service revenue grew by 16.1% year-on-year, driven by subscription and advertising revenue growth. The music subscription ARPPU reached RMB 11.4, surpassing expectations due to a reduction in discounts for regular members and strong performance from SVIP subscriptions [2][3]. - The report anticipates that ARPPU will become the main driver of music subscription revenue growth in the coming years, with projections of RMB 11.6 in Q2 2025 and RMB 12.1 by Q4 2025 [2]. Financial Projections - The report slightly raises revenue forecasts for FY25E and FY26E by 1% and 0% respectively, and adjusts the net profit forecasts upward by 3% and 1% [3]. - Financial metrics for FY25E include expected revenue of RMB 31.16 billion, operating profit of RMB 12.79 billion, and adjusted net profit of RMB 8.90 billion [4][10]. Market Performance - The current stock price for Tencent Music is $14.33, with a 52-week price range of $9.41 to $15.77, and a total market capitalization of $24.59 billion [5][6]. - The report indicates a strong market position for Tencent Music, supported by its leading industry status and growth in subscription services [3][4].