Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Report's Core View The fundamentals provide limited support, while the macro - environment is positive, leading to a relatively strong performance of Shanghai Copper [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Price Data - Downstream purchasing sentiment is low, pressuring the copper spot premium/discount [10]. - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M backwardation widened slightly week - on - week [11]. Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $0.45/ton week - on - week to - $41.3/ton, remaining at a low level [15]. - According to SMM, the inventory of copper concentrates at ten ports increased by 0.44 tons week - on - week to 69.27 tons [18]. - The spread between refined and scrap copper strengthened week - on - week [21]. - Affected by maintenance in September, the domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decrease by over 4% month - on - month and increase by over 11% year - on - year [23]. - In August, 425,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products were imported, and the cumulative imports from January to August decreased by 2.1% year - on - year [24]. - This week, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper decreased slightly week - on - week, and the bonded - area inventory continued to decline week - on - week [26]. - LME copper inventory continued to decline, while COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [27]. - The operating rate of refined copper rods decreased week - on - week due to high copper prices, cautious downstream purchasing, and weak consumption [30]. - From September 1st to 7th, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in the national market decreased by 3% year - on - year [32]. - The expected output of photovoltaic modules in September will increase slightly month - on - month, but there is a divergence among leading enterprises [33]. - The planned output of household air - conditioners in September decreased by 12% compared with the actual output of the same period last year [35]. Macroeconomic Data - China's new social financing in August was 2.57 trillion yuan, and new loans were 590 billion yuan [39]. - The US core CPI in August increased by 3.1% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month, in line with expectations [41]. - US inflation is basically in line with expectations, and the annual revision of non - farm payrolls is worse than expected, strengthening the expectation of a Fed rate cut [42].

Report Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the copper market show that enterprises have restocking expectations, raw material supply is tight, which will affect refined copper production. The Fed's interest rate cut expectations and China's continuous introduction of favorable policies will support market risk sentiment and prices [7]. - The global copper inventory has increased, with significant increases in domestic and COMEX inventories. Copper prices have risen, suppressing downstream demand and terminal consumption, and weakening enterprise orders. The supply of copper concentrates is continuously tight, and the smelting losses are expanding. The waste copper import has changed from profit to loss, which may affect subsequent imports [7]. - The US economic data has boosted interest rate cut expectations, and China has continuously introduced favorable policies. In terms of trading strategies, previous long positions can be held, and new long positions should be cautious. The logic of domestic term positive spread trading is strengthened, and opportunities to go long on volatility can be considered [7]. Summary by Directory Trading End - Volatility: The volatility of SHFE copper and INE copper has rebounded, while that of LME copper and COMEX copper has declined. The COMEX copper price volatility is around 7%, and the SHFE copper volatility has slightly rebounded [11]. - Term Spread: The term structure of SHFE copper has strengthened, and the LME copper spot discount has expanded. The SHFE 09 - 10 spread has risen from a premium of 50 yuan/ton on September 5th to a premium of 300 yuan/ton on September 12th. The LME 0 - 3 discount has expanded from $68.04/ton on September 5th to $73.42/ton on September 12th [14][15]. - Position: The positions of COMEX copper, SHFE copper, INE copper, and LME copper have all increased. The SHFE copper position has increased by 6,774 lots to 522,500 lots [17]. - Capital and Industry Position: The net long position of CFTC non - commercial traders has increased from 25,700 lots on September 2nd to 27,200 lots on September 9th. The net short position of LME commercial traders has increased from 54,300 lots to 56,900 lots [23]. - Spot Premium: The domestic copper spot premium has weakened, and the Yangshan Port copper premium has declined. The domestic copper spot premium has decreased from a premium of 165 yuan/ton on September 5th to a premium of 85 yuan/ton on September 12th. The Yangshan Port copper premium has fallen from $57/ton on September 5th to $56/ton on September 12th [27][29]. - Inventory: The global total copper inventory has increased from 638,800 tons on September 4th to 644,800 tons on September 11th. The domestic social inventory has increased, the bonded area inventory has decreased, the COMEX inventory has increased, and the LME copper inventory has decreased [30][33]. - Position - to - Inventory Ratio: The LME copper position - to - inventory ratio has rebounded, and the SHFE copper position - to - inventory ratio has declined. The SHFE 10 - contract position - to - inventory ratio has declined but is still at a high level in the same period of history [34]. Supply End - Copper Concentrate: The import of copper concentrates has increased year - on - year, and the processing fee has weakened marginally. In July 2025, China's copper concentrate imports were 2.56 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.45%. The port inventory has increased, and the spot TC has weakened to - $41.3/ton on September 12th [37]. - Recycled Copper: The import volume of recycled copper has decreased year - on - year, and the domestic production has increased slightly. In July, the import of recycled copper was 190,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%, and the domestic production was 99,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.81%. The scrap - refined copper price difference has expanded, and the import has changed from profit to loss [39][43]. - Blister Copper: The import of blister copper has increased, and the processing fee is at a low level. In July, the blister copper import was 84,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.08%. The processing fee in August was at a low level [47]. - Refined Copper: The production of refined copper has increased more than expected, the import has increased, and the import loss has expanded. The domestic refined copper production in August was 1.1715 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.59%. The import in July was 296,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.56%. The spot import loss has expanded from 43.98 yuan/ton on September 5th to 229.03 yuan/ton on September 12th [51]. Demand End - Operating Rate: The operating rate of copper product enterprises in August has weakened month - on - month. The operating rate of copper tubes in August was at a low level in the same period of history, and that of copper plates, strips, and foils was at a neutral - low level. The operating rate of wire and cable has slightly rebounded in the week of September 11th [54]. - Profit: The processing fee of copper rods is at a low level in the same period of history, and that of copper tubes has rebounded. As of September 12th, the processing fee of copper rods in the power industry in East China was 570 yuan/ton, lower than that on September 5th. The 10 - day moving average of the processing fee of R410A special purple copper tubes on September 12th was 5,104 yuan/ton, higher than that on September 5th [60]. - Raw Material Inventory: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises has remained at a low level. In August, the raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a high level in the same period of history, and that of copper tubes was at a low level. The weekly raw material inventory of wire and cable has remained low [61]. - Finished Product Inventory: The finished product inventory of copper rods has rebounded, and that of wire and cable has increased. In August, the finished product inventory of copper rods was at a neutral - high level in the same period of history, and that of copper tubes was at a neutral - low level. The weekly finished product inventory of wire and cable has increased [64]. Consumption End - Apparent Consumption: The apparent consumption of copper is good, and power grid investment is an important support. From January to July, the cumulative actual consumption was 9.2236 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.06%, and the apparent consumption was 9.2812 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.28%. The power grid investment from January to July was 331.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.5% [69]. - Air - Conditioner and New - Energy Vehicle: The growth rate of air - conditioner production has slightly decreased, and the production of new - energy vehicles is at a high level in the same period of history. In July, the domestic air - conditioner production was 16.115 million units, a year - on - year slight decrease of 0.01%, and the new - energy vehicle production was 1.243 million units, a year - on - year increase of 26.32% [72].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - Macroscopically, a September interest rate cut is likely, but its impact on copper prices depends on the reason and background. The "stagflation-like" environment in the US restricts the scope of rate cuts. In the short term, rate cuts boost copper's financial attributes, raising the bottom price, but the upside is limited. - Fundamentally, it presents a state of "weak reality + stable expectations." The demand may weaken marginally in the second half of the year, but the supply - demand deterioration is limited. With the arrival of the peak season, demand is expected to improve marginally, and the terminal demand is resilient. Copper prices are expected to at least remain volatile, and a new upward cycle requires the resonance of commodity and financial attributes. The reference range for the main contract is 79,500 - 81,500 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the market shows a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand." The short - term import of bauxite is tight, but new production capacity is continuously being put into operation. The demand for alumina from electrolytic aluminum is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton in the short term. - For aluminum, macro factors support the price, and the fundamentals are improving marginally. However, the price increase is restricted by the 20,900 - 21,000 yuan/ton pressure range. It is expected to fluctuate around the actual fulfillment of peak - season demand, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,200 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Macroscopically, the expectation of Fed rate cuts boosts the sentiment of commodities. The cost support is strong due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum. The supply is affected by tax policy adjustments, and the demand has slightly recovered but needs verification. The price of ADC12 is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The improvement of rate - cut expectations boosts zinc prices. The supply side is expected to be loose, and the demand side is about to enter the peak season. The low global inventory supports the price. In the short term, the price may be driven by macro factors, but the upside is limited, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand shows no obvious improvement. The spot market transactions are differentiated. The tin price is expected to remain high and volatile. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy can be considered; otherwise, it will continue to fluctuate at a high level, with the reference range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [9]. Nickel - Macroscopically, the market's expectation of the rate - cut rhythm remains unchanged. Industrially, the spot trading of refined nickel is average, and the price of nickel ore is firm. The profit of stainless steel is in deficit, and the demand is weak. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, and the price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market shows a weak trend. The raw material prices are firm, and the supply pressure exists. The demand improvement is not obvious, and the social inventory is slowly decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,400 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is in a tight balance. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand is optimistic as it enters the peak season. The overall inventory has decreased. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with the main contract reference range of 70,000 - 72,000 yuan/ton [15][16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose by 0.54% to 80,175 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 25 yuan/ton. The spot - futures spread and other indicators also changed to varying degrees. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. In July, the import volume was 296,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20%. The inventory of various types also changed [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose by 0.53% to 20,860 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The prices of alumina in different regions also changed. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the alumina production was 7.7382 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.15%, and the electrolytic aluminum production was 373,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.30%. The inventory also showed corresponding changes [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 rose by 0.48% to 20,960 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference of various types increased. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 615,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.60%. The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy increased [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose by 0.41% to 22,180 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 5 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the refined zinc production was 626,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.88%. In July, the import volume was 17,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50.35%. The inventory also changed [7]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price rose by 0.37% to 271,100 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the tin ore import was 10,278 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71%. The inventory of various types also changed [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased slightly. The cost of producing electrolytic nickel from different raw materials also changed. - **Supply and Inventory**: The production of Chinese refined nickel products increased by 1.26% month - on - month, and the import volume decreased by 8.46%. The inventory of various types also changed [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel coils remained unchanged. The raw material prices remained stable. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China decreased by 3.83% month - on - month, and the net export volume increased by 22.37%. The inventory decreased [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased. The prices of lithium - related raw materials also decreased. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the lithium carbonate production increased by 4.55% month - on - month, and the demand increased by 8.25%. The inventory decreased [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Macroscopically, a September interest rate cut is likely, but its impact on copper prices depends on the reason and background. The "stagflation - like" environment in the US restricts the rate - cut space. In the short - term, the rate - cut expectation boosts the financial attribute of copper, but the upside is limited. - Fundamentally, it shows a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". The copper demand may weaken marginally in the second half of the year, but the supply elasticity is insufficient. With the arrival of the peak season, the demand will improve marginally. Without a clear US recession expectation, copper prices will at least remain volatile, and a new upward cycle requires the resonance of commodity and financial attributes. The main contract is expected to range from 79,500 to 81,500 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the market shows a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". Although the short - term import of bauxite is tight, the new production capacity is continuously put into operation, and the demand from electrolytic aluminum is limited. The price is under pressure, but the downside is limited as it approaches the cost zone. It is expected to oscillate between 2,900 and 3,200 yuan/ton. - For aluminum, the macro - environment provides support, and the fundamentals are improving marginally. However, the price increase is restricted by the 20,900 - 21,000 yuan/ton range. It is expected to oscillate around the actual peak - season demand, with the main contract ranging from 20,600 to 21,200 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Macroscopically, the Fed's rate - cut expectation boosts the sentiment of bulk commodities. The cost support is strong due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum. The supply is affected by uncertain tax policies, and the demand is slightly warming but needs verification. The inventory is still accumulating, and the import resources are limited. The ADC12 price is expected to remain high and volatile, with the main contract ranging from 20,200 to 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The US inflation data improves the rate - cut expectation and boosts zinc prices. The supply side is in an upward cycle of production resumption, and the smelting profit is repaired. The demand side is about to enter the peak season, and the global inventory is low. In the short - term, zinc prices may be driven by the macro - environment, but the upside is limited. It is expected to oscillate, with the main contract ranging from 21,500 to 23,000 yuan/ton [7]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the processing fees are low. The actual ore output from Myanmar is expected to be postponed to the fourth quarter. The demand is weak, and the traditional consumption decline cannot be offset by the growth in emerging fields. The spot market is divided. Tin prices are expected to remain high and volatile, with the operating range from 265,000 to 285,000 yuan/ton [9]. Nickel - The macro - environment is generally stable, and the cost provides some support. There is no obvious short - term supply - demand contradiction, but the de - stocking pace slows down. The medium - term supply is expected to be loose, restricting the upside. The price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract ranging from 118,000 to 126,000 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - The macro - environment is positive, with the Fed's rate - cut expectation rising and domestic policies being supportive. The raw material prices are firm, but the stainless - steel profit is in deficit, which will suppress nickel - iron. The supply is under pressure as the September production schedule is expected to increase. The demand improvement has not been significantly reflected, and the inventory reduction is slow. The price is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main contract ranging from 12,600 to 13,400 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures market oscillates and strengthens in the afternoon with the improvement of the macro - sentiment. The fundamentals are in a tight balance. The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand is expected to increase in the peak season. The whole - chain de - stocking is accelerating. The price is expected to oscillate and consolidate, with the main contract ranging from 70,000 to 72,000 yuan/ton [15][16]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 80,175 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.54%. The spot premium and other price - related indicators also changed. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 11.80% [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 40 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. The import volume in July decreased by 1.20%. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 3.14% week - on - week [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 20,860 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.53%. The alumina prices in different regions showed slight declines [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the alumina production was 773.82 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.15%. The electrolytic aluminum production increased by 0.30%. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 0.16% week - on - week [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price rose to 20,960 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.48%. The refined - scrap price differences in different regions increased [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 45 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the regenerative aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 1.60%. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 1.88%. The regenerative aluminum alloy inventory increased by 33.83% week - on - week [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22,180 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.41%. The import loss increased [7]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 10 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.88%. The import volume in July decreased by 50.35%. The galvanizing start - up rate increased by 5.98% week - on - week [7]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price rose to 271,100 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.37%. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 55.74% [9]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 680 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the tin ore import decreased by 13.71%. The SMM refined tin production increased by 15.42%. The SHEF inventory increased by 2.74% week - on - week [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 121,450 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.08%. The production cost of different nickel - related products changed [11]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2510 - 2511 spread decreased by 30 yuan/ton [11]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: The Chinese refined nickel product output increased by 1.26% month - on - month. The SHFE inventory decreased by 1.87% week - on - week [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The 304/2B stainless - steel price remained stable. The futures - spot price difference increased by 11.11% [13]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: The Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production decreased by 3.83% month - on - month. The 300 - series social inventory decreased by 2.10% week - on - week [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price decreased to 72,850 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.82%. The lithium - related raw material prices also declined [15]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2511 spread increased by 440 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%. The demand increased by 8.25%. The total inventory decreased by 3.75% [15].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - In the short term, interest rate cuts boost the financial attribute of copper, lifting the bottom center of copper prices. However, without a significant improvement in interest rate cut expectations, the upside space is also limited. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction provides bottom support, and copper prices will at least fluctuate. To enter a new upward cycle, the commodity and financial attributes of copper need to resonate. The reference range for the main contract is 79,000 - 81,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, it is expected to fluctuate between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton in the short term. For aluminum, the macro - environment provides support, and the fundamentals are marginally improving. The price is expected to fluctuate around the actual fulfillment of peak - season demand, with the main contract reference range of 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season, the spot price is expected to remain firm, the inventory accumulation rate will slow down, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to further narrow. The reference operating range for the main contract this week is 20,000 - 20,600 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - In the short term, zinc prices may fluctuate. To continue to rebound upwards, there needs to be an unexpected improvement in demand and a continuous improvement in interest rate cut expectations under non - recession conditions. To break through downwards, the TC needs to strengthen unexpectedly and refined zinc needs to continuously accumulate inventory. The main contract reference range is 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - Supply remains tight, and tin prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy can be considered; if the supply recovery falls short of expectations, tin prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level, with the operating range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [11]. Nickel - Macro - environment is generally stable, with some cost support in the short term. There is no obvious supply - demand contradiction, but the de - stocking pace has slowed down. The price decline space is limited, and the medium - term supply is still abundant, restricting the upside space. The main contract is expected to adjust within the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - Raw material prices are firm, providing cost support, and inventory pressure has eased. However, the peak - season demand has not been significantly released, and the fundamentals are still restricted by weak spot demand. The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate within the range of 12,600 - 13,400 yuan/ton [14][17]. Lithium Carbonate - The resumption of production expectations affect market sentiment, and strong demand provides support for the price floor. The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the performance of the 72,000 - yuan pressure level for the main contract [19]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 79,745 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 104 yuan/ton, a decrease of 109.58 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price was 20,750 yuan/ton, down 0.10% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 1,302 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM Southwest ADC12 price was 20,900 yuan/ton, up 0.48% from the previous day [5]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22,090 yuan/ton, down 0.45% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 2,532 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21.77 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price was 270,100 yuan/ton, down 0.11% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 16,422.39 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,365.69 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 121,550 yuan/ton, down 0.29% from the previous day. The futures import profit and loss was - 1,805 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) price was 12,700 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 73,450 yuan/ton, down 1.54% from the previous day [19]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In August, electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, a decrease of 0.24% from the previous month. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory was 68.83 million tons, a decrease of 3.14% from the previous week [1]. - **Aluminum**: In August, alumina production was 773.82 million tons, an increase of 1.15% from the previous month. The aluminum profile开工率 was 53.00%, an increase of 1.92% from the previous week [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, a decrease of 1.60% from the previous month. The recycled aluminum alloy开工率 was 53.41%, a decrease of 0.35% from the previous week [5]. - **Zinc**: In August, refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, an increase of 3.88% from the previous month. The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory was 15.21 million tons, an increase of 3.96% from the previous week [8]. - **Tin**: In July, domestic tin ore imports decreased by 13.71% month - on - month. The SHFE inventory increased by 2.74% week - on - week [11]. - **Nickel**: Chinese refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, an increase of 1.26% from the previous month. The SHFE inventory decreased by 1.87% week - on - week [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 171.33 million tons, a decrease of 3.83% from the previous month. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 4.72% week - on - week [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In August, lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, an increase of 4.55% from the previous month. The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 3.75% month - on - month [19].

Group 1 - The online seminar on the integration of production and finance in the non-ferrous metal futures and spot market was launched to promote deep integration in the industry [1] - The seminar series will cover 11 sessions focusing on various non-ferrous metal futures products, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, and lithium carbonate [1] - The first session on copper discussed the global copper industry status and how to leverage futures market functions for high-quality development [1][2] Group 2 - Zhang Nan, Deputy Secretary-General of the Copper Industry Association, highlighted key aspects for copper enterprises, including industry structure, consumption growth, and regulatory requirements [2] - Mo Xinda, Deputy Secretary-General of the Aluminum Industry Association, discussed the global aluminum industry and emphasized the importance of green low-carbon development [2] - The copper market has seen a price increase and higher volatility since 2020, impacting downstream enterprises' cost management [3] Group 3 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) reported significant trading activity in copper futures, with 22.7 million contracts traded in the first half of 2025, amounting to 879 million yuan [4] - The total trading volume of non-ferrous metal futures on SHFE reached 197 million contracts in the first half of 2025, with a transaction value of 27.8 trillion yuan [5] - The introduction of aluminum alloy futures has filled a gap in the processing sector, enhancing risk management across the aluminum industry [4] Group 4 - The SHFE shared strategies for hedging in non-ferrous metal enterprises, including setting target prices and dynamically adjusting hedging ratios [6] - Companies are encouraged to utilize both futures and spot markets for hedging to stabilize their operations and manage risks effectively [6] - The focus on risk management through futures markets is seen as essential for the sustainable profitability of enterprises in the non-ferrous metal sector [3][6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Entering September, China's refined copper production is expected to decline. Coupled with the expected decrease in recycled copper substitution and the seasonal recovery of demand, the copper supply is relatively balanced. Overseas demand is expected to improve, but there is still pressure for further inventory accumulation. The market has already anticipated the Fed's interest rate cut. The focus is on its attitude towards subsequent monetary policy. If it remains dovish, it will further boost market sentiment. Overall, the decline in domestic copper production and the seasonal improvement in consumption will provide strong support for copper prices. If the Fed continues to be dovish, copper prices are expected to rise. If the Fed's stance is neutral, the increase in copper prices is expected to be weaker. This month, the operating range of the main SHFE copper contract is expected to be between 77,500 - 82,000 yuan/ton, and the operating range of LME 3M copper is expected to be between 9,600 - 10,400 US dollars/ton. The operation suggestion is to buy on dips [9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Points Summary - Supply: The supply of copper concentrates remains tight, and the marginal supply of domestic crude copper has tightened. The production of domestic refined copper has declined, and the decline is expected to widen in September [9]. - Demand: In August, the apparent consumption of refined copper in China is estimated to have continued to grow. In September, with the higher base, the apparent consumption is expected to decline. The overseas manufacturing industry's prosperity has improved, and the short - term demand is expected to be okay [9]. - Import and Export: In August, the import window for SHFE copper opened, and the estimated import volume increased [9]. - Inventory: In August, the inventories of SHFE, LME, COMEX, and bonded areas all increased. It is estimated that there will still be some pressure for inventory accumulation overseas in September [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Market Review: In August, copper prices fluctuated upwards. The main SHFE copper contract rose 1.76% and the LME 3M copper contract rose 3.11%. The upward resonance of the global equity market and the increasing expectation of a US interest rate cut were the main reasons for the rise in copper prices. The US dollar index fell 2.16%, and the offshore RMB appreciated 1.22% [17]. - Market Spreads: In August, the inventory in the London market continued to increase, and the spot was relatively loose. The SHFE copper trend was stronger than that of LME copper, and the import window opened once. The COMEX - LME copper spread maintained a range - bound operation [20]. - Inventory & Basis: As of the end of August, the total inventory of the three major exchanges plus the Shanghai bonded area was about 574,000 tons, an increase of 51,000 tons from the beginning of August. The LME copper inventory continued to increase slightly, and the increase slowed down recently. The total COMEX copper inventory continued to rise, increasing by about 18,000 tons in August. In terms of the basis, the increase in LME inventory pushed Cash/3M to maintain a discount, and the discount narrowed at the beginning of September. In China, the basis remained firm due to the tight supply of scrap copper, reporting about 180 yuan/ton at the beginning of September [23][26]. - Fund Sentiment: As of the end of August, the CFTC fund position remained net long, but the net long ratio declined to 12%. The LME investment fund's long - position ratio declined, and the sentiment was still cautious. In September, the impact on market sentiment is expected to come from the Fed's monetary policy path, inventory changes, etc. [29] 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply - Copper Ore: In July, Chile's copper ore production rebounded month - on - month but remained at a relatively low level. In June, Peru's copper ore production increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. Recently, there has still been some interference in overseas copper ore supply, but the impact has weakened marginally. In August, the inventory of copper concentrates at major Chinese ports rebounded, and the spot supply at ports was marginally loose. The spot TC of copper concentrates first rose and then fell in August, reporting - 41.5 US dollars/ton at the end of August. The supply - demand relationship remained tight. In September, as domestic smelting maintenance is expected to increase, TC is expected to rise [34][37]. - Supply - Refined Copper: Since August, the processing fees for domestic crude copper and imported crude copper have fluctuated and declined. Recently, the adjustment of domestic recycled copper policies has led to a decrease in the production of crude copper and anode copper from scrap, and the supply has tightened marginally. The price of sulfuric acid, a by - product of smelting in mainstream domestic regions, has declined month - on - month but remained at a relatively high level, contributing positively to smelting revenue. In August, the smelter's operating rate remained high, and the production of domestic refined copper only declined slightly. In September, there will be more domestic copper smelting maintenance, and coupled with the decrease in the production of anode copper from scrap copper, the production of refined copper is expected to decline significantly (about 50,000 tons) [40][43]. - Supply - Recycled Copper: In August, the average price difference between refined and scrap copper in China was about 1,070 yuan/ton, continuing to narrow month - on - month. The substitution advantage of scrap copper was at a relatively low level. In August, under the expectation of standardizing investment promotion in various regions, the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises continued to decline. In September, the recycled copper policy will become clearer. Once the policy is implemented, it is expected to bring greater pressure to recycled copper enterprises. If upstream recycling enterprises do not adjust prices, the recycled copper rod will maintain a low operating rate [46]. - Demand - China: Assuming an increase in net imports in August, the apparent consumption of domestic refined copper is estimated to be 1.394 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 3.8%. From January to August, the cumulative apparent consumption was about 10.747 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. In August, the official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs in China rebounded, and the Caixin manufacturing PMI returned above the boom - bust line, indicating a marginal improvement in the manufacturing industry's prosperity. In the first seven months of 2025, China's copper product output increased by about 9.4%. In August, the operating rate of copper product enterprises rebounded slightly and is expected to continue to rise in September. In August, the operating rate of China's refined copper rod enterprises fluctuated, and the average operating rate was lower than the same period last year. In September, there was a marginal improvement. In August, the operating rate of domestic wire and cable enterprises increased and is expected to continue to rise in September. As of July, the raw material and finished - product inventories of copper product and wire and cable enterprises decreased, and the inventory pressure was not large. In July, the year - on - year investment in the power sector decreased, and the year - on - year increase in new photovoltaic installations decreased significantly, resulting in weak related demand. High - frequency data shows that in August, domestic real estate transaction data improved month - on - month, while the production schedule of home appliances in the real estate's back - end was relatively weak; automobile sales remained relatively strong [49][52][55][58][61][64]. - Demand - Overseas: In August, the manufacturing prosperity of major overseas developed economies improved. According to ICSG data, in June 2025, the global refined copper consumption increased month - on - month and maintained year - on - year growth. From January to June, consumption increased by about 5.1% [68]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Analysis - The US employment data in July was weak, and the inflation data rebounded. In late August, the Fed Chairman's speech at the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting was dovish. Currently, the market has fully priced in a 25 - BP interest rate cut by the Fed at this month's interest rate meeting. However, the actual interest rate cut amplitude and path of the Fed are still uncertain, and its impact on the market may be greater. In August, the US dollar index was relatively weak and is currently in a downward trend; the US 10 - year inflation expectation fluctuated and is waiting for a further direction [72][74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper showed a slightly stronger weekly trend, with a weekly increase of +0.92% and an amplitude of 1.56%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 80,140 yuan/ton [6]. - Internationally, the US ISM Manufacturing Index in August rose slightly from 48 in July to 48.7, below the market - expected 49 and remaining below the boom - bust line for six consecutive months. Domestically, in August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points month - on - month; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points month - on - month; and the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points month - on - month [6]. - Fundamentally, the TC fee for copper ore is running in a low range, and the raw material price is firm, providing cost support for copper prices. In terms of supply, domestic smelter production and operating rates have declined due to maintenance, and the supply shortage of raw materials such as copper concentrate and scrap copper has also limited smelter capacity to some extent, so domestic refined copper production may decrease. In terms of demand, in the short term, the relatively strong copper price due to the expected Fed rate cut has suppressed the downstream pick - up sentiment, and the trading sentiment in the spot market has cooled. In the long term, the traditional consumption peak season is still expected to boost demand, and with the increase in new orders and a slight correction in copper prices, the downstream purchasing sentiment may gradually recover. In terms of inventory, social inventory has accumulated due to a slight slowdown in demand. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and temporarily weak demand, with a positive industrial outlook [6]. - The recommended strategy is to conduct light - position oscillating trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai copper had a slightly stronger weekly trend, with a closing price of 80,140 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of +0.92%, and an amplitude of 1.56% [6]. - **International and Domestic Economic Indicators**: Internationally, the US ISM Manufacturing Index in August was 48.7, below expectations. Domestically, in August, the manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index all increased month - on - month [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Cost support from raw materials, supply may decrease due to smelter issues, short - term demand is weak but long - term demand is expected to improve, and inventory has accumulated [6]. - **Strategy**: Light - position oscillating trading [7] 3.2 Spot - Futures Market Situation - **Contract Indicators**: As of September 5, 2025, the basis of the main contract of Shanghai copper was - 90 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from last week; the contract price was 80,140 yuan/ton, up 730 yuan/ton from last week; the position was 187,152 lots, up 13,326 lots from last week; the inter - monthly spread was 50 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week [12][15]. - **Spot Price**: The average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 80,050 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton week - on - week [15]. - **Premium and Position**: The average CIF premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 59 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was a net short of - 850 lots, an increase of 11,386 lots from last week [24]. - **Option Indicators**: The short - term implied volatility of the at - the - money option contract of Shanghai copper fell below the 50th percentile of historical volatility; the put - call ratio of option positions was 0.72, a decrease of 0.0766 from last week [29]. 3.3 Industrial Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - **Raw Material Prices**: The copper concentrate price in the main domestic mining area (Jiangxi) was 70,440 yuan/ton, up 780 yuan/ton from last week; the southern copper scrap processing fee was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [30]. - **Imports**: In July 2025, the import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.5601 million tons, an increase of 210,500 tons from June, a growth rate of 8.96%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 18.41%. The refined - scrap copper price difference (tax - included) was 1,529.89 yuan/ton, up 8.06 yuan/ton from last week [36]. - **Global Production and Inventory**: In June 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrates was 1,916 thousand tons, a decrease of 81 thousand tons from May, a decline of 4.06%; the global capacity utilization rate was 79%, a decrease of 0.9% from May. The inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 550,000 tons, an increase of 77,000 tons month - on - month [41]. 3.3.2 Supply Side - **Refined Copper Production**: In July 2025, the domestic monthly production of refined copper was 1.27 million tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons from June, a decline of 2.46%, and a year - on - year increase of 15.14%. In June 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2,431 thousand tons, an increase of 45 thousand tons from May, an increase of 1.89%; the capacity utilization rate was 83.5%, an increase of 3.7% from May [46]. - **Imports**: In July 2025, the import volume of refined copper was 335,969.236 tons, a decrease of 1,073.33 tons from June, a decline of 0.32%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.05%. The import profit and loss was 655.7 yuan/ton, an increase of 650.4 yuan/ton from last week [51][52]. - **Inventory**: The LME total inventory decreased by 525 tons from last week, the COMEX total inventory increased by 24,901 tons from last week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2,485 tons from last week. The total social inventory was 148,100 tons, an increase of 7,700 tons from last week [55]. 3.3.3 Downstream and Applications - **Copper Products**: In July 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.1694 million tons, a decrease of 45,100 tons from June, a decline of 2.04%; the import volume was 480,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from June, an increase of 4.35%, and a year - on - year increase of 9.09% [59]. - **Power Grid and Appliance**: As of July 2025, the cumulative investment in power and grid construction increased by 3.4% and 12.5% year - on - year respectively. The monthly production of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs increased by 2.4%, 1.5%, 5%, 2.9%, and - 6.5% year - on - year respectively [65]. - **Real Estate and Integrated Circuits**: As of July 2025, the cumulative real estate development investment was 535.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12% and a month - on - month increase of 14.84%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 294.6 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and a month - on - month increase of 23.02% [72]. 3.4 Overall Situation - According to ICSG statistics, as of June 2025, the global refined copper supply was in excess, with a monthly surplus of 36 thousand tons. According to WBMS statistics, the cumulative global supply - demand balance as of June 2025 was a surplus of 46,500 tons [77]

Group 1 - The board of directors of Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd. held its 24th meeting on September 4, 2025, where all directors unanimously agreed to waive the notice period for the meeting [1] - The meeting was attended by 8 directors, with 4 present in person and 4 participating via communication voting, ensuring compliance with the Company Law and the company's articles of association [1] - The board approved the proposal for the early redemption of the "Tongling Ding 02" bonds [1][2] Group 2 - The voting results for the proposal showed 8 votes in favor, with no votes against or abstentions [2] - The company disclosed additional documents related to the early redemption, including a verification opinion from Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. and a legal opinion from Anhui Chengyi Law Firm [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has been rising in August, with Powell's speech turning dovish. A September rate cut is almost certain, and the market anticipates two rate cuts this year. After Trump's intervention in the Fed's positions, the market doubts the Fed's independence, causing the US dollar index to decline. The specific magnitude of the Fed's rate cut still needs attention. The US has continued to suspend the implementation of a 24% reciprocal tariff on China for 90 days since August 12. China's August PMI data showed a slight increase, indicating a marginal improvement in economic sentiment [2][55]. - In July, China's imports of copper ore concentrates were around 2.56 million tons, a significant month - on - month increase, and port inventories of concentrates also rebounded from the bottom. After the smelter processing fees showed an upward inflection point earlier, they have continued to decline in recent periods. The sulfuric acid price has reached a high, and its contribution to smelter profits is expected to decline. Smelter maintenance will gradually start in September. Five smelters plan to conduct maintenance in September, involving a crude smelting capacity of 1 million tons. Domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decline month - on - month in September. After the copper tariff is implemented, imported copper will flow back to the domestic market, and with the expected decline in domestic production in the second half of the year, imported copper will squeeze the domestic market and affect pricing [3][55]. - As of July 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3745 million tons. Although it is currently the off - season for consumption, the increasing investment in domestic power grid facilities and the growing penetration rate of new energy in the automotive sector are driving copper demand. The downstream electrical appliance production is expected to improve during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. However, due to the impact of the US tariff and trade policies in the first half of the year, the terminal household appliance industry had a rush to export, which over - drew the export demand for the second half of the year. The domestic policy of "replacing old with new" also advanced domestic demand [4][56]. - Overall, the recent overseas trading of the Fed's rate cut expectation and independence issues has led to a decline in the US dollar index, supporting the non - ferrous metal market. Fundamentally, copper production is expected to decline month - on - month after September, and imported copper may increase. With domestic copper inventories still at a low level, copper supply is expected to tighten. Although the demand in the second half of the year is expected to be weaker year - on - year due to the impact of copper tariffs and the over - drawn demand from the previous terminal rush to export, there is an improving trend in the downstream copper products and terminal industries. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias [4][56]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Economic Environment - In the US, the annual rate of the PCE price index in July increased by 2.6%, the same as the previous month. The core PCE price index increased by 2.9% year - on - year in July, higher than 2.8% in June. The initial value of new non - farm employment in July was 73,000, lower than the market expectation of 110,000 and far below the monthly average of 168,000 in 2024. The unemployment rate was 4.2%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, the same as in January this year and still at a historical low [5]. - China's manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing climate. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points, and the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points. The non - manufacturing and composite PMI output indices continued to expand in August. The cumulative social financing scale in the first seven months was 23.99 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.12 trillion yuan year - on - year. At the end of July, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 5.6%, and RMB loans increased by 6.9% [7]. 3.2 Copper Supply Data - In the first half of 2025, the global copper mine production increased by about 2.7%, with the concentrate production increasing by 2.8% and the recycled refined copper production growing by 2.3%. The global refined copper consumption increased by about 4.8%, and China's apparent demand is estimated to have increased by about 7.5%. The net import of refined copper decreased by 2.6% [13]. - As of August 29, 2025, the inventory of imported copper concentrates at 16 Chinese ports was 550,000 tons, an increase of 77,000 tons from the previous month. Freeport Indonesia is expected to use 90% of its expiring copper concentrate export quota next month, with a significant expected increase in exports [16]. - As of August 29, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) in China was - 41.25 US dollars per dry ton, and the RC fee was - 4.12 US cents per pound. After the smelter processing fees showed an upward inflection point, they have continued to decline in recent periods. The sulfuric acid price has reached a high, and smelter maintenance will gradually start in September [19]. - In August, SMM's Chinese electrolytic copper production decreased by 280 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 0.24%, and increased by 15.59% year - on - year. The cumulative production from January to August increased by 978,800 tons, an increase of 12.30%. Five smelters have maintenance plans in September, involving a crude smelting capacity of 1 million tons. SMM expects domestic electrolytic copper production to decrease by 52,500 tons month - on - month in September, a decrease of 4.48%, and increase by 114,700 tons year - on - year, an increase of 11.42% [19]. - From January to July 2025, the total import volume was 2.2223 million tons, a 0.04% decrease from the same period last year. In July 2025, China's electrolytic copper imports were 336,000 tons, a 12.07% year - on - year increase. After the copper tariff is implemented, imported copper will flow back to the domestic market, and with the expected decline in domestic production in the second half of the year, imported copper will squeeze the domestic market [20]. - Since August, the price difference between refined and scrap copper has been widening but is still below the reasonable level. Affected by the new policy in September, downstream copper factories have little intention to purchase for inventory and are only making rigid - demand purchases. In July 2025, scrap copper imports were 190,000 tons, which is lower year - on - year but still at a historical high. Due to the US copper tariff and tight supply in Europe, scrap copper imports are expected to further decline [24]. 3.3 Copper Demand - As of July 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3745 million tons. Despite the current consumption off - season, the increasing investment in domestic power grid facilities and the growing penetration rate of new energy in the automotive sector are driving copper demand. The downstream electrical appliance production is expected to improve during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [30]. - According to Steel Union data, the operating load of refined copper rod enterprises has dropped to about 60%. The operating rate of copper tubes has also decreased in summer, and the terminal production orders are insufficient. However, the copper foil production has improved due to the demand from the new energy market. The overall operating rate of copper products is 61.6%, and it is expected to increase during the consumption peak season [33]. - From January to June, the investment in power grid projects was 291.1 billion yuan, a 14.6% year - on - year increase, reaching a record high for the same period. The investment in power source projects was 363.5 billion yuan, a 5.9% year - on - year increase. The power grid project is a rigid downstream demand for copper, supporting copper prices [38]. - From January to July, the floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 6.38731 billion square meters, a 9.2% year - on - year decrease. The new construction area was 352.06 million square meters, a 19.4% decrease. Although the housing market policies in first - and second - tier cities are being optimized, the market still needs time to stabilize and currently drags down copper demand [40]. - In July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.243 million and 1.262 million respectively, a 26.3% and 27.4% year - on - year increase respectively. From January to July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 8.232 million and 8.22 million respectively, a 39.2% and 38.5% year - on - year increase respectively. After September, the new energy vehicle market will enter the peak season, and with policy support, it is expected to drive consumption and support copper prices [43]. - In July 2025, China's air - conditioner production was 20.597 million units, a 1.5% year - on - year increase. From January to July, the cumulative production was 183.455 million units, a 5.1% cumulative increase. The demand for air - conditioners is currently in the off - season and is expected to increase slightly during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. From January to July, the cumulative production of household refrigerators was 59.632 million units, a 5.0% increase, and the cumulative production of household freezers was 15.512 million units, a 1.3% decrease. The refrigerator production is expected to rebound more strongly than air - conditioners during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. However, due to the US tariff policy in the first half of the year, the terminal household appliance industry had a rush to export, over - drawing the export demand for the second half of the year. The domestic policy of "replacing old with new" also advanced domestic demand [45]. 3.4 Inventory - As of September 2, 2025, the LME copper inventory was 158,800 tons, a 12.01% increase from the previous month and a 50.48% decrease from the same period last year. The COMEX copper inventory was 241,000 tons, an 8.24% increase from the previous month and a 600% increase from the same period last year. The global copper inventory increase is due to the release of inventory after the copper tariff implementation. The LME copper inventory has returned to a medium - level for the same period, and the global visible copper inventory is still low, supporting copper prices [48]. - As of September 3, 2025, the SHFE electrolytic copper inventory was 19,500 tons, an increase of 704 tons (4%) from the previous month and an 84.18% decrease from the same period last year. After the copper tariff implementation, the SHFE copper inventory has not increased significantly and is still at a low level. It is expected to remain low during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The Shanghai bonded - area copper inventory has been increasing, but there was a decline last week. With the improvement of the import price ratio, some goods in the bonded area have been cleared and entered the domestic market [51].