大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 生猪日报 2025 年 7 月 1 日 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | | | | | | | | 生猪价格日报 | | 2025/7/1 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 河南（0） | 15.29 | 15.09 | 0.20 | 山 西 | 15.05 | 14.84 | 0.21 | | 湖北（0） | 14.81 | 14.66 | 0.15 | 辽 宁 | 14.77 | 14.69 | 0.08 | | 安徽（300） | 15.29 | 15.15 | 0.14 | 吉 林 | 14.72 | 14.55 | 0.17 | | 湖南（100） | 15.09 | 14.79 | 0.30 | 黑龙江 | 14.55 | 1 ...

Market Focus - As of the week ending June 27, the profit from self-breeding and self-raising pigs was 50.25 CNY per head, up from 19.40 CNY per head the previous week. In contrast, the profit from purchasing piglets was a loss of 131.71 CNY per head, improved from a loss of 186.79 CNY per head the prior week [1] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has adjusted the delivery quality standards for live pig futures, modifying the average and individual weight ranges for delivery standards. The average weight range has been changed from [100, 120] kg to [110, 130] kg, and the individual weight range from [90, 140] kg to [90, 150] kg. Additionally, the pricing adjustments for alternative delivery items have been specified [1] Daily Market Data - The national average price for live pigs as of July 1, 2025, varies by province, with prices ranging from 13.86 CNY/kg in Xinjiang to 16.73 CNY/kg in Guangdong. The prices reflect a slight increase compared to the previous day, with most regions showing a stable outlook for the near future [4] Industry Review - Currently, pricing power in the pig market is concentrated among leading enterprises. The recent increase in pig prices is attributed to major producers actively reducing supply, along with speculative capital providing some support. Despite awareness of oversupply, the industry sentiment has shifted, leading to increased willingness to hold back supply to maintain prices [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][41]. Core Views - The agricultural sector has shown a weak performance compared to the market, with the agricultural index rising only 0.80%, ranking 25th among 31 sectors [5][12][13]. - The pig price has rebounded slightly after a decline, with the average price at 14.35 CNY/kg as of June 29, 2025, reflecting a weekly increase of 0.42 CNY/kg [6][16]. - The white feather chicken market is facing challenges with both chick and meat prices declining, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [30]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural sector's index increased by 0.80%, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300, which rose by 1.95% and 0.91% respectively [12][13]. 2. Livestock Industry Chain Tracking 2.1 Pigs: Weak Price Fluctuations - The average pig price has stopped declining and is now at 14.35 CNY/kg, while the average price for 15kg piglets is 460 CNY/head, showing a slight decrease [6][16]. - The average weight of pigs at market is 128.14 kg, down 0.14 kg from the previous week, with a year-on-year increase of 1.71% [6][16]. - The supply of pigs is expected to remain stable, with a controlled growth rate in supply for 2025, leading to narrow price fluctuations [19][20]. 2.2 White Feather Chicken: Supply Strong, Demand Weak - As of June 27, 2025, the price of white feather chicken chicks is 1.90 CNY/chick, unchanged from the previous week, while the price of meat chickens is 3.40 CNY/kg, down 2.30% [30]. - The industry is currently facing significant losses due to a strong supply and weak demand, with concerns about the impact of imported breeds due to avian influenza outbreaks [30]. 3. Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices have shown a slight increase, with white sugar priced at 6090 CNY/ton, up 55 CNY/ton [34]. - Soybean prices have also risen, with the imported price at 3739 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.9% increase [34]. - Corn prices have continued to rise, averaging 2392 CNY/ton, up 11 CNY/ton [34].

Group 1: Oil and Fat Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - Palm oil: With concerns about month - end inventory growth, the Malaysian crude palm oil futures may face downward pressure to seek support around 3,800 ringgit. In China, Dalian palm oil futures may seek support at the annual line of 8,200 yuan [2]. - Soybean oil: Weak crude oil reduces the attractiveness of soybean oil as a biodiesel raw material. Abundant rainfall in US soybean - growing areas and high - yield expectations put pressure on CBOT soybeans and soy oil. In China, downstream demand is weak, and soybean oil inventory is expected to increase [2]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: From June 27 to June 30, the spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil decreased by 50 yuan to 8,240 yuan, a decline of 0.60%; the futures price of Y2509 decreased by 18 yuan to 7,984 yuan, a decline of 0.22%. The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil decreased by 100 yuan to 8,400 yuan, a decline of 1.18%; the futures price of P2509 decreased by 46 yuan to 8,330 yuan, a decline of 0.55%. The spot price of Jiangsu fourth - grade rapeseed oil decreased by 70 yuan, a decline of 0.73%; the futures price of 01509 decreased by 51 yuan to 9,415 yuan, a decline of 0.54% [2]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of Y2509 decreased by 32 yuan to 256 yuan, a decline of 11.11%; the basis of P2509 decreased by 54 yuan to 70 yuan, a decline of 43.55%; the basis of 01509 decreased by 19 yuan, a decline of 10.33%. The soybean - palm oil spot spread increased by 50 yuan to - 160 yuan, an increase of 23.81%; the 2509 spread increased by 28 yuan to - 346 yuan, an increase of 7.49% [2]. Group 2: Sugar Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - The increase in the ethanol blending ratio in Brazilian gasoline supports a slight rebound in raw sugar prices, but the global supply surplus limits the rebound height, and raw sugar is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern. In China, the market sentiment has improved, and the bullish sentiment may last for some time. Considering the expected increase in imports, the domestic supply - demand situation will gradually ease, and a bearish view is maintained after the rebound [5]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: From the previous value, the futures price of sugar 2601 increased by 28 yuan to 5,628 yuan, an increase of 0.50%; the futures price of sugar 2509 increased by 15 yuan to 5,807 yuan, an increase of 0.26%. The price of ICE raw sugar decreased by 0.50 cents to 16.19 cents per pound, a decline of 3.00% [5]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production reached 1,116.21 tons, an increase of 119.89 tons or 12.03% year - on - year; the cumulative national sugar sales reached 811.38 tons, an increase of 152.10 tons or 23.07% year - on - year. The national industrial sugar inventory decreased by 32.21 tons to 304.83 tons, a decline of 9.56% [5]. Group 3: Cotton Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The contradiction of tight old - crop cotton inventory in the upstream supply cannot be resolved in the short term, but the long - term supply is expected to be sufficient. The downstream industry continues to weaken, with increasing finished - product inventory. The driving force for cotton price increases is insufficient, and the cotton price is expected to remain in a range - bound pattern [6]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: From the previous value, the futures price of cotton 2509 decreased by 20 yuan to 13,740 yuan, a decline of 0.15%; the futures price of cotton 2601 decreased by 5 yuan to 13,760 yuan, a decline of 0.04%. The price of ICE US cotton decreased by 1.28 cents to 68.04 cents per pound, a decline of 1.85% [6]. - **Industry Situation**: The industrial cotton inventory decreased by 1.10 tons to 93.01 tons, a decline of 1.2%; the cotton import volume decreased by 2.00 tons to 4.00 tons, a decline of 33.3%. The yarn inventory days increased by 1.52 days to 23.86 days, an increase of 6.8%; the grey - fabric inventory days increased by 2.57 days to 35.46 days, an increase of 7.8% [6]. Group 4: Egg Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The national egg supply is sufficient, the demand is average, and downstream purchasers are cautious. Egg prices are expected to remain stable first, decline slightly in the short term, and then stabilize [8]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: The futures price of the egg 09 contract increased by 16 yuan to 3,689 yuan per 500 kg, an increase of 0.44%; the futures price of the egg 07 contract increased by 18 yuan to 2,821 yuan per 500 kg, an increase of 0.64%. The egg - producing area price decreased by 0.14 yuan to 2.78 yuan per catty, a decline of 4.90% [7]. - **Related Indicators**: The price of egg - laying chicken chicks remained at 4.00 yuan per chick; the price of culled chickens increased by 0.18 yuan to 4.62 yuan per catty, an increase of 4.05%. The egg - feed ratio decreased by 0.09 to 2.24, a decline of 3.86% [7]. Group 5: Meal Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The US soybean planting area report had a neutral impact. The technical support for US soybeans has strengthened, and the Brazilian soybean market is boosted by the rising basis of August and September shipments. In China, the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal is rising, the basis is stable, and the supply is expected to be high. The soybean meal trend is not yet clear, and there may be opportunities to go long at low prices [11]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: The spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal increased by 20 yuan to 2,840 yuan, an increase of 0.71%; the futures price of M2509 increased by 15 yuan to 2,961 yuan, an increase of 0.51%. The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal increased by 40 yuan to 2,470 yuan, an increase of 1.65%; the futures price of RM2509 increased by 13 yuan to 2,572 yuan, an increase of 0.51% [11]. - **Spread and Ratio**: The soybean meal 09 - 01 spread increased by 3 yuan to - 38 yuan, an increase of 7.32%; the rapeseed meal 09 - 01 spread increased by 2 yuan to 271 yuan, an increase of 0.74%. The oil - meal ratio of the spot decreased by 0.038 to 2.90, a decline of 1.30%; the oil - meal ratio of the main contract decreased by 0.020 to 2.70, a decline of 0.73% [11]. Group 6: Corn and Corn Starch Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The corn supply is tight, and the spot price is rising steadily. In the Northeast, the remaining grain is scarce, and traders are reluctant to sell. In North China, the corn arrival volume is low, and deep - processing enterprises are raising prices to purchase. Downstream demand is weak, but the wheat - corn price difference is shrinking, which limits the increase in corn prices. In the long term, the tight supply and increasing consumption support the upward movement of corn prices. A large - scale increase in imports is expected. The corn auction starts on July 1, and the overall trend is bullish [13][15]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: The futures price of corn 2509 decreased by 6 yuan to 2,378 yuan, a decline of 0.25%; the futures price of corn starch 2509 decreased by 10 yuan to 2,733 yuan, a decline of 0.36% [13]. - **Industry Situation**: The number of vehicles remaining in the morning at Shandong deep - processing enterprises increased by 65 to 216, an increase of 43.05%. The corn starch inventory increased by 948 to 23,822, an increase of 4.14% [13]. Group 7: Pig Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The spot price of pigs is still in a volatile structure. The enthusiasm of secondary fattening has declined, and the slaughter procurement difficulty has slightly increased. The current breeding profit is declining, and the market capacity expansion is cautious. The market expects a potential upward trend in July and August, but there may be a risk of price decline for the 09 contract near the delivery date if the inventory is postponed [16][17]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: The futures price of live pigs 2507 increased by 225 yuan to 13,850 yuan, an increase of 1.65%; the futures price of live pigs 2509 decreased by 135 yuan to 13,870 yuan, a decline of 0.96% [16]. - **Industry Situation**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points decreased by 376 to 140,739, a decline of 0.27%. The self - breeding profit per head increased by 30.9 yuan to 50 yuan, an increase of 159.02%; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding increased by 55.1 yuan to - 132 yuan, an increase of 29.49% [16].

Core Point - Mexico announced that the United States will reopen its border to allow the import of live cattle as part of cooperation on the issue of screw-worm disease [1] Group 1 - The reopening of the border signifies a collaborative effort between Mexico and the United States to address agricultural health concerns [1] - The import of live cattle is expected to have implications for the livestock industry in both countries [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights the development of the poultry industry in Guzhen County, emphasizing the role of government support and technological advancements in enhancing production efficiency and profitability [1][3][6] Industry Development - Guzhen County has implemented a comprehensive support system for the poultry industry, including financial assistance and infrastructure development, which has significantly boosted the production capacity and economic output of local farms [3][6] - The county's "One Hundred Million Chickens" project initiated in 2013 provides various subsidies and support measures to chicken farmers, resulting in substantial growth in production and revenue [3][4] Technological Advancements - The introduction of standardized chicken farming practices, including the "Five Unifications" model, has led to the establishment of 28 standardized chicken farms, each capable of producing over 1.2 million chickens annually [3][4] - The shift from ground-based to vertical cage farming has increased production capacity by nearly one-third, improved environmental conditions, and reduced costs, resulting in an average profit increase of 1.5 yuan per chicken [4][5] Company Performance - Bengbu Dacheng Food Co., Ltd. operates a comprehensive poultry processing facility that can process a chicken from slaughter to packaging in just two hours, producing over 20 million chickens annually for various markets [5][6] - The company is set to achieve a sales target of 3.8 billion yuan in 2024 and plans to expand its operations with an 870 million yuan investment in a new cooked food processing project [6]

Core Points - The article depicts the life of highland herders in Shangri-La, Yunnan, highlighting the challenges and changes they face in their traditional lifestyle [1][2][3] - It emphasizes the generational shift in work and lifestyle choices, with younger members opting for modern jobs or businesses instead of traditional herding [5][6] - The narrative illustrates the communal aspects of their culture, showcasing gatherings and shared activities among different ethnic groups [10] Group 1: Lifestyle and Challenges - The highland herders live in remote areas without modern amenities, leading to a lifestyle that is both beautiful and challenging [1][2] - The quality of sheep wool is crucial for income, but the market for livestock has been negatively impacted by imported meat [6][9] - There is a noticeable decline in traditional practices, such as wool processing, as fewer people engage in these activities [6][9] Group 2: Generational Changes - Younger generations, like Amu and Bangzhi, have explored opportunities in urban areas but are now returning to their hometowns with new business ideas [5][6] - The article highlights the contrast between the older generation's reliance on traditional herding and the younger generation's inclination towards modern entrepreneurship [5][6] Group 3: Community and Culture - The article describes communal activities, such as sheep shearing and evening gatherings around a campfire, which foster a sense of belonging among the herders [10] - Different ethnic groups, including the Tibetan, Naxi, and Pumi, come together to celebrate their shared culture through music and communal meals [10]

Supply Analysis - The official breeding sow inventory in April was 40.38 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, with little monthly variation in the first half of the year [1] - In the first half of the year, piglet sales profits were good and feed costs were low, leading to a gradual increase in monthly piglet supply in the second quarter [1] - Breeding profits have declined to near breakeven, with the price difference for standard pigs expanding, prompting secondary fattening and group sales, resulting in a steady release of production capacity [1] Demand Analysis - Slaughter volumes in March and April significantly increased compared to the beginning of the year and the same period last year, with a year-on-year increase of about 8% in officially designated slaughter volumes, indicating a recovery in demand [1] - The national reserve's rotation and storage in the first half of the year provided support for slaughter enterprises [1] - High temperatures in July and August may suppress demand, while the peak demand season in the fourth quarter and domestic macroeconomic recovery may support pig prices [1] Profit Analysis - Breeding profits reached a high point in the second quarter before declining, but profits remain positive [1] - Profit changes are influenced by rising corn prices and a downward shift in spot prices, with limited downward space for breeding profits despite potential corn price increases [1] Basis Analysis - The market supply is loose, with futures fluctuating around cost lines, and near-month contracts significantly discounting spot prices [1] - Supply pressure has shifted, causing spot prices to decline less than expected, with contracts for March and May driving futures prices up [1] - Long-term contract basis fluctuates between 800 and 1300, with strong market expectations and slow declines in spot prices [1] Investment Recommendations - Overall inventory increases, weight reduction expectations, and fluctuations in secondary fattening are expected to extend the downward cycle of live pigs [1] - Inventory increases in July and August may slow down, while the growth rate of inventory in September may accelerate, maintaining a loose supply pattern [1] - It is recommended to short the September and November contracts based on basis adjustments [1]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The supply of domestic pigs may decrease in both quantity and meat after the May Day holiday, and the demand for fresh pork is also suppressed. However, the tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada boosts market confidence. Overall, the market may see a double - reduction in supply and demand this week, and the pig price is expected to return to a volatile pattern. The LH2509 contract of live pigs is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,800 - 14,200 [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - No specific content is provided in the given text. 2. Recent News - China's tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada boosts market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the domestic pig consumption market enters the off - season, with a decrease in large - pig slaughter. The supply and demand of pigs both decline, and the spot price fluctuates weakly in the short term, with the futures following a similar pattern [10]. - After the May Day holiday, pork demand weakens in the short term. The spot price of live pigs fluctuates weakly due to the double - reduction in supply and demand, but the decline may be limited due to the decrease in slaughter [10]. - The domestic pig - farming profit remains at a low level but still exists in the short term. The enthusiasm for large - pig slaughter is relatively high in the short term. The double - reduction in supply and demand suppresses the short - term expectations of live - pig futures and spot prices [10]. - The spot price of live pigs may fluctuate weakly after the May Day holiday, and the futures will generally maintain a weakly volatile pattern. When the market stabilizes depends on the future reduction in supply and recovery in demand [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: The year - on - year decline in domestic pig inventory and the limited further decline in domestic live - pig spot prices [11]. - **Bearish Factors**: The pessimistic expectations in the domestic macro - environment due to the China - US tariff war and the entry of pig and pork consumption into the off - season after May Day [11]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on the pig slaughter situation and fresh - meat demand [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: After the May Day holiday, the supply and demand of pigs both decrease. The market may see a double - reduction in supply and demand this week, and the pig price is expected to return to a volatile pattern [8]. - **Base Difference**: The national average spot price is 14,560 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2509 contract is 555 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [8]. - **Inventory**: As of March 31, the pig inventory was 417.31 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.2%. As of the end of February, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.66 million heads, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 0.6%, which is bullish [8]. - **Market Trend**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards, which is bullish [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [8]. - **Expectation**: After the May Day holiday, the supply and demand of pigs both decrease. The pig price is expected to return to a range - bound pattern this week, with the LH2509 contract of live pigs fluctuating around 13,800 - 14,200 [8]. 5. Position Data - The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [8].

Core Insights - Zhejiang has been entrusted with the construction of China's first "Smart Agriculture Leading Zone" by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, focusing on the deep application of AI technologies in agriculture from 2025 to 2030 [1] - The integration of large models in agriculture is expected to revolutionize traditional farming practices, enhancing autonomous analysis and predictive capabilities [1][2] - The development of digital twin technology is enabling precise monitoring and management of crops, leading to improved efficiency and reduced resource waste [2][3] Group 1: Smart Agriculture Initiatives - The construction plan for the Smart Agriculture Leading Zone will rely on an integrated intelligent public data platform, targeting core industries such as planting, animal husbandry, and aquaculture [1] - The use of digital twin technology in agriculture allows for real-time monitoring of plant health and growth conditions, facilitating data-driven decision-making [2] - The goal is to establish 1,000 digital agriculture factories and 100 future farms by the end of 2027, indicating a significant push towards modernization in agriculture [5] Group 2: Technological Advancements - The introduction of AI and digital technologies is transforming traditional breeding methods, increasing efficiency and precision in crop development [6] - The use of drones for data collection is becoming essential, with predictions of widespread drone deployment for tasks such as crop monitoring and yield prediction [3] - Companies are leveraging AI-driven models to enhance logistics and supply chain management, improving the efficiency of agricultural product distribution [8] Group 3: Economic Impact - The integration of smart agriculture technologies is projected to generate significant economic benefits, with examples of cost savings and increased revenue for farmers [3][8] - E-commerce and digital marketing strategies are contributing to the growth of agricultural sales, with online retail sales of agricultural products reaching 28.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.49% [7] - The collaboration between agricultural enterprises and tech companies is fostering innovation, leading to enhanced product quality and market reach [8]