2026-02-12 金融工程 春节日历效应下的海内外市场表现研究 相关研究报告 报告摘要 以 2010 年至 2025 年共 16 个春节周期为样本，从海内外宽基指 数、行业板块、市场风格三个维度，考察春节前后不同窗口下的收益 表现、胜率分布及轮动规律。 A 股市场的春节日历效应呈现节前普涨、节后结构分化特征。节 前 5 个交易日主要指数多数上涨，万得全 A 中位数涨幅 2.59%、上涨 概率 68.75%。节后市场动能向中小市值倾斜，中证 1000、中证 2000、 微盘股在节后 20 个交易日涨幅中位数分别为 6.72%、8.35%、11.29%， 上涨比率均超 87%；上证 50、沪深 300 同期涨幅不足 2%，胜率回落至 60%左右，市值越小，节后弹性越强，胜率越高的分层规律较为稳定。 港股市场春节效应温和。恒生指数在节前、节假日（A 股休市、 港股交易）及节后 5 个交易日平均涨幅 0.12%、0.39%、0.55%，上涨 比率 56%-63%，弹性与确定性均弱于 A 股中小盘风格。 海外主要市场存在节后温和正收益倾向。标普 500、德国 DAX 等 指数节后 5 个交易日涨幅中位数 0.9%- ...

此次北方信托与天津农商银行的携手合作，进一步打通了金融资源下沉的渠道，极大地提升了帮扶的精 准性、规范性与可持续性，开启了协同合作助力公益的新征程。记者从北方信托方面获悉，未来，双方 将持续发挥金融资源与信托制度的优势，以金融合力助推乡村全面振兴工作再上新台阶，切实将金融资 源转化为乡村发展新动能，共同为推进产业升级、提高人民福祉、实现共同富裕贡献自身力量。 （文章来源：证券日报） 天津农商银行在2025年引入慈善信托这一新工具为乡村振兴赋能，构建起"输血+造血+赋能"三位一体 乡村振兴体系。在完善基础设施方面，信托资金重点投入道路硬化、文化健身广场建设、村委会外墙整 修、沥青路面铺设、路灯安装维修、道路护栏安装等一系列工程，显著改善了村容村貌，有利于村民出 行安全。在推动产业造血方面，重点助力"农光互补"光伏项目稳步推进，积极协助解决施工中各类问 题，光伏发电成功并网后，每年为村集体带来稳定收益，同时持续拓展"农光文旅"等产业发展新模式， 真正让"产业兴"带动"村民富"。 慈善信托作为融合金融工具与公益使命的创新载体，不仅具备资金安全、运作透明、管理规范的特点， 更能实现资源的长期有效配置，成为连接金融资本 ...

值得注意的是，CPI已连续三个月低于华尔街预期。若1月数据继续温和，将为美联储决策者提供更多 信心，相信其能在避免通胀复燃的同时下调基准利率。 华尔街预期：通胀数据只是短暂回落？ 花旗经济学家维罗妮卡・克拉克（Veronica Clark）指出，住房成本（被归类为服务）涨幅放缓，预计 将压制整体服务价格；但商品价格可能偏强，反映"新年企业提价中关税成本的传导"。 高盛预计，关税将为核心通胀贡献0.07个百分点，可能对服装、娱乐、家居用品、教育与个人护理等品 类构成上行压力。不过，高盛预测1月整体CPI同比仅为2.4%，略低于市场预期，这可能进一步增强通 胀放缓的预期。 北京时间周五晚9:30，美国劳工统计局将公布1月消费者价格指数（CPI）报告，预计服务价格涨幅放缓 大概率将推动1月通胀有所降温。但即便如此，现在就期待这会改变美联储的政策思路仍为时过早。 经济学家共识预测显示，衡量美国全经济商品与服务成本的1月消费者价格指数（CPI）预计同比上涨 2.5%，较前一月的2.7%有所放缓，环比增速则维持在0.3%；剔除食品与能源的核心CPI预计同比上涨 2.5%，同样低于前值2.6%，环比增速或从0.2%小幅上升 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that German government bonds are more influenced by U.S. Treasury yields than by domestic data, with the issuance trends in the Eurozone potentially affecting duration and curve [1] - According to Citigroup, Eurozone sovereign nations have completed 17% of their annual government bond issuance, indicating ongoing demand and supply progress that supports short-term gains [1] - The reduction in the issuance of 30-year bonds may lead to a flattening of the yield curve for 10 to 30-year Eurozone government bonds starting from March [1] Group 2 - The long-term concerns are more about the fiscal impact on the economy rather than the issuance itself, which limits the potential for upward movement in yields [1]

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Central Document No. 1 has been released, emphasizing the goal of modernizing agriculture and rural areas, with Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank committed to translating this vision into practical rural revitalization efforts [1] Group 1: Agricultural Production and Financial Support - Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank prioritizes food security by enhancing agricultural production capabilities and quality, focusing on key areas such as grain production and livestock farming [2] - The bank has initiated a "government-bank-insurance guarantee" cooperation mechanism and conducted outreach to over 2,000 farmer cooperatives, directing credit resources to essential sectors [2] - A dedicated financial service plan was created for the construction of 100,000 acres of unmanned farms, facilitating the first loan for "unmanned farm" construction to support the transition from mechanization to intelligence in agriculture [2] Group 2: Agricultural Infrastructure and Technology Innovation - The bank has launched the first agricultural guarantee loan for fixed assets in facility agriculture, providing crucial funding for the upgrade of smart glass greenhouses [3] - A specialized financial service plan named "Kexin Agriculture" has been developed to support agricultural technology innovation, focusing on high-investment, long-cycle, and light-asset characteristics of agricultural tech enterprises [3] - The bank has successfully implemented the first plant variety pledge loan in the city, creating new pathways for supporting agricultural intellectual property and seed technology advancements [4] Group 3: Rural Revitalization and Economic Development - The bank aims to enhance farmers' income by fostering county-level industries and promoting the integration of primary, secondary, and tertiary industries [5] - A three-year action plan has been established to support rural revitalization, with strategic cooperation agreements signed with 108 towns [5] - Innovative financial support methods have been introduced for rural tourism projects, addressing financing bottlenecks and facilitating the development of new rural industries [5] Group 4: Ecological Protection and Green Development - The bank supports the construction of a 40 MW "fishing-light complementary" project, which is expected to generate over 50 million kWh annually and significantly reduce carbon emissions [6] - A pioneering "climate loan" has been introduced to help agricultural entities manage weather-related risks, enhancing the resilience of rural ecological agriculture [6] - The bank promotes local geographical indication products, facilitating their online sales and enhancing the income of local specialty industries [6] Group 5: Financial Inclusion and Credit System Development - The bank has established a "grid-based financial service" mechanism to convert soft information into hard credit assessments, evaluating 369 credit villages and 10 credit towns by the end of 2025 [7] - The "Silver-Farmer Direct Connection" initiative aims to enhance financial services in rural areas, improving the management of collective funds and promoting healthy rural economic development [8] - By the end of 2025, the bank's agricultural loan scale is expected to exceed 66 billion yuan, with inclusive agricultural loans surpassing 15 billion yuan, maintaining a leading position in the regional market [8] Group 6: Commitment to Agricultural Modernization - Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank is dedicated to the mission of "inclusive finance to enhance the quality of life for the public," continuously innovating products and services to allocate more financial resources to key areas of rural revitalization [9]

- The "Hong Kong CCASS Preferred 20 Portfolio" was constructed using a two-step screening method: "select brokers first, then select stocks"[3][4] - The first step involves selecting top-performing brokers by standardizing and equally weighting their excess Sharpe ratio and monthly win rate, then selecting the top 10 brokers[4][16] - The second step involves equally distributing funds to the 10 selected brokers, aggregating their latest holdings, and retaining the top 20 stocks by weight for equal allocation[5][17] - The portfolio has shown significant outperformance over the Hang Seng Index, with an annualized excess return rate of 19.3% and an excess Sharpe ratio of 2.45 over the period from 2020 to 2025[3][12][15] - The portfolio demonstrated defensive characteristics during market adjustments, achieving a positive return of 2.05% from October 8, 2025, to December 31, 2025, while the Hang Seng Index fell by 4.47% and the Hang Seng Technology Index dropped by 15.32%[3][12] - The latest holdings of the portfolio as of February 2026 include a low valuation and high dividend yield configuration, with the banking and non-bank financial sectors accounting for about 45%, the energy sector about 10%, and the technology and internet sectors about 20%[6][19][22] Portfolio Performance Metrics - Annualized return: 19.3%[15] - Annualized volatility: 7.9%[15] - Sharpe ratio: 2.45[15] - Maximum drawdown: -7.6%[15] - Monthly win rate: 75.3%[15]

Core Viewpoint - The number of cash dividends and the scale of dividends among A-share listed companies have reached a new high ahead of the Spring Festival, driven by policy encouragement for multiple dividends and pre-dividends [1][2]. Group 1: Dividend Scale and Companies - A total of 348.8 billion yuan in dividends will be distributed by 235 listed companies on the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges before the Spring Festival, surpassing the total from the previous year [2]. - Financial and consumer sectors are the main contributors to dividends, with the banking sector distributing 243.4 billion yuan, accounting for nearly 70% of the total [4]. - Private enterprises have shown a significant increase in dividend willingness, with pre-Spring Festival dividends amounting to 61.6 billion yuan, a 130% year-on-year increase, rising from 8% to 18% of the total dividends [5]. Group 2: Market Signals and Investor Insights - The large-scale dividends signal that companies have more stable profitability and cash flow, which boosts market confidence and expectations [5]. - Investors are advised to focus on companies with a history of stable dividends, with over 1,800 companies in A-shares having maintained dividends for more than five years, and nearly 800 for ten years [6]. - The sincerity of a company's dividend can be assessed by its dividend yield, emphasizing that a higher yield may indicate a more genuine commitment to returning value to shareholders [7]. Group 3: Cautionary Notes on Dividends - Investors should be cautious of companies with dividend payouts that significantly exceed net profits, as this may indicate potential stock price manipulation [6][7]. - Companies with negative cash flow or insufficient capital adequacy ratios may pose risks, as they might distribute dividends without actual cash backing [7].

美股正经历全面抛售之际，周五将公布的1月CPI数据面临超预期风险。华尔街普遍预期核心CPI环比将 从0.2%升至0.3%，同时多家投行警告实际读数可能更高，"鹰派意外"的概率大于"温和意外"，这可能给 脆弱的市场带来新一轮冲击。 北京时间今晚21:30，因政府部门关闭而推迟数日的1月CPI数据将公布，华尔街共识预期显示： 但这一预期可能低估了年初价格压力和季节性扭曲的影响。多家机构的预测更为鹰派，摩根大通预计核 心CPI环比增长0.4%，其认为年初价格压力推升1月CPI，而去年12月的数据因10月和11月初联邦政府停 摆的滞后效应而受到抑制。 本周市场情绪已明显转向防御。围绕人工智能将颠覆多行业商业模式的担忧扩散，叠加美国成屋销售降 幅创四年来最大，触发避险交易，投资者同步抛售股票，大宗商品和加密货币等风险资产。在这样的背 景下，CPI的边际变化被放大。在弱于预期的零售销售数据与强于预期的非农就业报告相互抵消的背景 下，此次公布的CPI数据显得尤为重要。 多重因素指向上行风险 摩根大通首席经济学家Michael Feroli预计，1月CPI环比将上涨0.3%（更精确为0.35%），核心CPI环比 将上涨0.4 ...

Core Viewpoint - Agricultural Bank of China Gansu Branch demonstrates resilience and commitment to serving the community during natural disasters, emphasizing the importance of financial services in times of crisis [2][7]. Group 1: Emergency Response and Community Support - Following the earthquake in Jishishan and Diebu, the bank activated an emergency response, ensuring the flow of financial services in disaster areas by increasing cash reserves and deploying mobile service vehicles [2][7]. - The bank's employees formed volunteer teams to assist in logistics and provide financial policy consultations, helping affected clients understand relief measures such as loan extensions and interest rate discounts [2][7]. Group 2: Elderly Care and Inclusive Services - The bank's focus on elderly clients is evident in its provision of senior-friendly services, including specially designed seating and priority systems for older customers [3][8]. - Initiatives include creating dedicated service records for elderly clients and offering home visits for personalized financial consultations, enhancing their financial literacy and social recognition [3][9]. Group 3: Rural Financial Inclusion - The bank has established 64 rural service stations, continuously expanding to connect with local government and community organizations, thereby facilitating access to essential financial services for rural populations [4][10]. - The use of technology, such as RPA for monitoring customer wait times, has significantly reduced average wait times, improving customer satisfaction and allowing staff to focus on personalized services [5][10]. Group 4: Overall Commitment to Service - The bank's efforts extend beyond disaster response to everyday services, reinforcing its role as a trusted partner for the community and contributing to the broader goal of financial security and modernization in China [5][11].

北京时间周五晚9:30，美国劳工统计局将公布1月消费者价格指数（CPI）报告，预计服务价格涨幅放缓 大概率将推动1月通胀有所降温。但即便如此，现在就期待这会改变美联储的政策思路仍为时过早。 经济学家共识预测显示，衡量美国全经济商品与服务成本的1月消费者价格指数（CPI）预计同比上涨 2.5%，较前一月的2.7%有所放缓，环比增速则维持在0.3%；剔除食品与能源的核心CPI预计同比上涨 2.5%，同样低于前值2.6%，环比增速或从0.2%小幅上升至0.3%。 若数据符合预期，美国整体CPI将回落至2025年5月（特朗普政府实施"解放日"关税政策后的一个月）以 来的低位水平，显示通胀自去年9月略高于3%的峰值后持续下行。 值得注意的是，CPI已连续三个月低于华尔街预期。若1月数据继续温和，将为美联储决策者提供更多 信心，相信其能在避免通胀复燃的同时下调基准利率。 华尔街预期：通胀数据只是短暂回落？ 花旗经济学家维罗妮卡・克拉克（Veronica Clark）指出，住房成本（被归类为服务）涨幅放缓，预计 将压制整体服务价格；但商品价格可能偏强，反映"新年企业提价中关税成本的传导"。 高盛预计，关税将为核心通胀贡献0 ...