证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 12 17 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 固收+为势，科技为王 今日概览 重磅研报 【宏观】弱复苏与再平衡——2026 年海外宏观展望——20251216 【策略】中央经济工作会议点评——20251216 【固定收益】固收+为势，科技为王——2026 年可转债年度策略—— 20251216 研究视点 【房地产】1-11 月统计局数据点评:因基数抬升同比跌幅扩大，开发投资 额-15.9%，新房销售额-11.1%——20251216 【钢铁】11 月数据跟踪：强预期弱现实继续演绎——20251216 【海外】速腾聚创（02498.HK）-EM 订单可观，机器人业务持续突破— —20251216 作者 | 分析师 夏君 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：S0680519100004 | | | | | 邮箱：xiajun@gszq.com | | | | | 行业表现前五名 | | | | | 行业 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 1 年 | | 通信 | 10.0% | 6.8% | 73.5% | | 国防军 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 上一周期（11.25-12.8）低价增强策略、改良双低策略、高价高弹性策略分别录得0.2%、2.3%、2.3%（同期基准0.0%）。今年以来，三类策略绩效分别为 17.4%、29.4%、55.1%（同期基准16.7%），累计超额收益率0.7%、12.7%、38.4%。上个周期权益市场回升，万得全A环比收涨4.1%，中证转债收平，低 价风格表现稍弱，高波策略重新占优。 低价增强策略最新持仓： 高价高弹性策略最新持仓： 阳谷转债（基础化工，新入）、华懋转债（汽车，新入）、永02转债（机械设备，新入）、富春转债（纺织服饰，新入）、中环转2（环保，新入）、超 声转债（电子，新入）、易瑞转债（医药生物，新入）、水羊转债、亿纬转债、北港转债。 高价高弹性策略调仓理由： 上期高价指数跟随正股上涨0.9%，高波策略重新占优。调入调出方面，本期调出价格偏高的天源转债、柳工转2、春23转债等，调入暂无强赎风险的阳谷 转债、华懋转债等高价品种，并保持行业分散。当前权益高位下高波策略操作难度偏高，叠加年末流动性或边际收紧，持续关注强赎进度及估值压缩带来 的下行 ...

Group 1: New Stock Offerings - Tianpu Co., Ltd. (Stock Code: 605255) has a tender offer period from November 20, 2025, to December 19, 2025[1] - Jianglong Shipbuilding (Stock Code: 300589) reported severe abnormal fluctuations[1] - Peking University Medicine (Stock Code: 000788) announced a trading update[1] Group 2: Trading Updates - Tongyu Communication (Stock Code: 002792) reported a trading update on December 1, 2025[1] - Daoming Optics (Stock Code: 002632) also provided a trading update on December 1, 2025[1] - Rongji Software (Stock Code: 002474) issued a trading update on December 1, 2025[1] Group 3: Abnormal Fluctuations - Ruineng Technology (Stock Code: 603933) reported a trading update on November 29, 2025, with a fluctuation of 6%[1] - Maoye Commercial (Stock Code: 600828) also reported a fluctuation of 6% on November 29, 2025[1] - Heshun Petroleum (Stock Code: 603353) reported a fluctuation of 7% on November 29, 2025[1]

Core Points - Company Yiwei Lithium Energy announced the approval of the sixth phase of the restricted stock incentive plan, allowing 597 eligible participants to receive a total of 34,483,075 shares at a grant price of 22.02 yuan per share [2] - The total share capital of the company will increase by 27,610,709 shares, resulting in a new total of 2,073,356,983 shares, reflecting a 1.35% increase in total share capital [2] - The conversion price of the company's convertible bonds, "Yiwei Convertible Bonds," has been adjusted from 50.65 yuan per share to 50.27 yuan per share, effective from November 28, 2025 [2]

1. Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2025Q3, the market value of convertible bonds held by public - funds increased, with the bond - type funds being the main force of the increase, and they mainly added positions in power equipment convertible bonds. The position of convertible bonds held by public - funds also rose. Although the convertible bond market continued to shrink, the convertible bond assets still had considerable returns under the catalysis of equity enthusiasm [2][8][9]. - The performance of convertible bond funds outperformed the index in 2025Q3, showing net subscriptions and scale expansion. However, the overall position and leverage ratio of these funds declined. Both public - funds and convertible bond funds focused on adding positions in power equipment convertible bonds [5][8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Public - funds Increase Convertible Bond Positions and Add Positions in Power Equipment Convertible Bonds 3.1.1 Market Value of Convertible Bonds Held by Public - funds Increases Month - on - Month, and Positions Rise - In 2025Q3, the market value of convertible bonds held by public - funds was 316.618 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 16.09% and a year - on - year increase of 12.72%. The ratio of the market value of convertible bonds held by public - funds to the market value of bond investments was 1.57%, a 0.28 - percentage - point increase from 25Q2; the ratio to net worth was 0.87%, a 0.07 - percentage - point increase from 25Q2 [13]. - The market value changes of convertible bonds held by different types of funds varied month - on - month. Stock - type and secondary bond - type funds significantly increased their positions. From the perspective of absolute amount changes, the bond - type funds had the largest increase in market value, with a month - on - month increase of 48.61 billion yuan in 25Q3 [17][19]. - The overall position of public - funds in convertible bonds increased, but the position of convertible bond funds was diluted. According to the Wind fund primary classification, the convertible bond position of stock - type funds remained flat at 0.02% month - on - month, that of hybrid funds decreased by 0.26 percentage points to 0.59%, and that of bond - type funds increased by 0.49 percentage points to 2.73% [23][25]. 3.1.2 Public - funds Inversely Increase Positions, while Insurance Funds, Enterprise Annuities, and Securities Firms' Proprietary Trading Reduce Positions - As of the end of 2025Q3, the total face value of convertible bonds held by the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges was 599.489 billion yuan, a decrease of 55.679 billion yuan from the end of 25Q2, a month - on - month decrease of 8.50%. Insurance institutions, enterprise annuities, and securities firms' proprietary trading significantly reduced their positions, while public - funds significantly increased their positions inversely, with a month - on - month increase of 7.68% to 233.561 billion yuan [35]. 3.1.3 Public - funds Mainly Add Positions in Power Equipment, and Bank Convertible Bonds Further Shrink - In terms of industry layout in 25Q3, banks were still the primary layout sector, but the overall position market value shrank significantly under the early redemption of multiple bank convertible bonds, with only a 233 - million - yuan difference from the power equipment market value. From the perspective of the market value month - on - month change rate, 24 industries had positive month - on - month changes, with the petrochemical, power equipment, and beauty care industries leading in growth [42]. 3.1.4 Industrial Convertible Bonds Maintain the First - Positioned Heavy - Position Bond - Industrial convertible bonds were the first - positioned heavy - position bond of public - funds, and EVE and Industrial convertible bonds led in terms of incremental positions. Among the top ten convertible bonds in terms of total position market value, there were 3 bank convertible bonds, which was fewer than in Q2. The types of bottom - position bonds gradually diversified [50]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Funds' Performance Outperforms the Index, and Convertible Bond Positions and Leverage Ratios Decline 3.2.1 Net Asset Value after Reinvestment Increases, and Overall Net Subscriptions Occur - As of 2025Q3, there were 39 convertible bond funds in the market. The performance of convertible bond funds outperformed the convertible bond index, showing net subscriptions and scale expansion. The scale of convertible bond funds in 25Q3 was 63.284 billion yuan, a significant increase of 11.635 billion yuan from 25Q2, a month - on - month increase of 22.53% [55]. - By observing the asset allocation changes of high - performing convertible bond funds, most of the larger - scale funds had reduced convertible bond positions. The top five funds in terms of net value performance in 25Q3 all had a certain scale, and most of them reduced their positions in stocks and convertible bond assets [57][58]. 3.2.2 Convertible Bond Positions Slightly Decrease Month - on - Month, and Leverage Ratios Decline Month - on - Month - The overall position of 39 convertible bond funds slightly decreased, and the leverage ratio declined month - on - month. In the third quarter of 2025, the ratio of the market value of convertible bonds to the net value of convertible bond funds was 84.18%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.16 percentage points; the median position was 85.54%, a more obvious month - on - month decrease of 6.14 percentage points. The average leverage ratio of 39 convertible bond funds was 114.13%, a decrease of 2.79 percentage points month - on - month, continuing the downward trend [5][68]. 3.2.3 Convertible Bond Funds Focus on Adding Positions in Power Equipment - From the perspective of the quarterly change in the number of times funds held convertible bonds, more than half of the industries had an increase in the number of holdings in 25Q3, with power equipment, electronics, and machinery leading in the increase. From the perspective of the quarterly change in the proportion of the market value of fund positions, the proportion of power equipment increased by 4.46 percentage points, leading by a large margin [6]. - Among the 39 convertible bond funds, Industrial convertible bonds were still the main heavy - position bond and increased in position. The banking and power equipment industries remained at the forefront of heavy - position industries [6].

Core Insights - The report highlights the performance of three investment strategies: Low Price Enhancement, Improved Dual Low, and High Price High Elasticity, which recorded returns of 1.3%, 0.5%, and 0.7% respectively during the last period, outperforming the benchmark return of 0.3% [1] - Year-to-date, these strategies have achieved returns of 17.4%, 28.2%, and 52.2%, with cumulative excess returns of 0.3%, 11.2%, and 35.2% compared to the benchmark return of 17.0% [1] - The equity market experienced fluctuations, with the Wind All A and CSI Convertible Bonds rising by 1.5% and 0.3% respectively, indicating a resurgence of low volatility strategies [1] Low Price Enhancement Strategy - The latest holdings include new entries such as Jinggong Convertible Bond (Construction Decoration), Shangyin Convertible Bond (Bank), and Yangfeng Convertible Bond (Basic Chemicals) among others [2] - The adjustment rationale is based on the strong performance of the low price index (1.4%) and the resurgence of low volatility strategies, with a focus on stable or improving performance and reasonable premium rates [3] Improved Dual Low Strategy - The latest holdings feature new entries like Shangyin Convertible Bond (Bank) and Zhonghuan Convertible Bond (Environmental Protection) [4] - Adjustments were made due to the upward movement of the dual low index (0.4%), with a focus on stocks with improved performance or stable operations while avoiding those with high redemption progress [5] High Price High Elasticity Strategy - The latest holdings include new entries such as Wankai Convertible Bond (Basic Chemicals) and Shuiyang Convertible Bond (Beauty Care) [6] - The strategy's adjustments were influenced by the decline in high price index returns (-1.5%) and the need to manage redemption risks while maintaining a balanced industry allocation [7]

Core Viewpoint - EVE Energy announced that from September 29, 2025, to October 20, 2025, its stock price has closed at or above 130% of the current conversion price of its convertible bonds for ten consecutive trading days, which is 65.85 CNY per share [1] Group 1 - The company stated that if, in the future, its stock price closes at or above 130% of the current conversion price for five trading days within a consecutive twenty-day period, it will trigger the conditional redemption clause outlined in the prospectus for the convertible bonds [1] - Upon triggering this clause, the company has the right to decide whether to redeem all or part of the unconverted convertible bonds at face value plus accrued interest [1]

Policy and Industry Trends - The humanoid robot industry is entering a stage driven by both policy and application scenarios, with significant government support and strategic focus on embodied intelligence and smart robotics[1] - Local governments are actively implementing special action plans to accelerate the industrialization of humanoid robots, indicating a robust policy environment[14] Market Opportunities - The market for humanoid robots is shifting from concept-driven to industrialization, with long-term investment value emerging in the sector[8] - Key components such as actuators, sensors, and lightweight materials are critical areas of focus, with a notable lack of software-related investment vehicles in the convertible bond market[1] Component Analysis - The core value of humanoid robots is highly concentrated in the components sector, particularly in actuators, dexterous hands, and sensors, which are essential for their functionality[29] - Actuators, including lead screws, reducers, and motors, are expected to contribute nearly half of the overall value in mass production stages, with significant growth potential[32] Investment Highlights - Notable convertible bonds include Yinlun Convertible Bond (Yinlun) and Daotong Convertible Bond (Daotong), which are leading in the exploration of the humanoid robot industry[2] - The Yinlun Convertible Bond focuses on thermal management systems and has established a product system for humanoid robots, while the Daotong Convertible Bond is leveraging AI for inspection robots[24] Risk Factors - Potential risks include the humanoid robot industry's slower-than-expected industrialization and unexpected changes in industrial policies[4]

Core Viewpoint - The Zhongzheng Convertible Bond Index opened with a slight increase of 0.08%, reaching 477.96 points on September 16 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The top gainers in the convertible bond market included Yuguang Convertible Bond, Borui Convertible Bond, New 23 Convertible Bond, Songsheng Convertible Bond, and Yinlun Convertible Bond, with increases of 6.74%, 4.28%, 3.05%, 1.98%, and 1.97% respectively [1] - The largest decliners were Haitai Convertible Bond, Jiuzhou Turn 2, Luokai Convertible Bond, Aofei Convertible Bond, and Yiwei Convertible Bond, with decreases of 5.02%, 3.76%, 1.71%, 1.42%, and 1.40% respectively [1]

New Stock Issuance - New stock issuance for 联合动力 (code: 301656) at a price of 12.48 on September 15, 2025[1] - *ST天茂 (code: 000627) has a cash option declaration period from September 15 to September 19, 2025[1] - 紫天退 (code: 300280) has 14 trading days remaining until the last trading day during the delisting period[1] Market Alerts - 先导智能 (code: 300450) reported severe abnormal fluctuations[2] - 杭可科技 (code: 688006) and 新华锦 (code: 600735) have recent announcements regarding trading activities[1] - 退市整理期 for multiple stocks including *ST威尔 (code: 002058) and 新炬网络 (code: 605398) has been noted[1] Trading Insights - Significant trading activity observed in stocks like 工业富联 (code: 601138) and 景旺电子 (code: 603228) with recent announcements[1] - The report includes links to detailed announcements for various stocks, indicating ongoing market developments[1]