Economic Growth - China's GDP is projected to reach 140 trillion yuan in 2023, up from 103 trillion yuan in 2020, achieving an increment of over 35 trillion yuan in five years, equivalent to recreating the Yangtze River Delta [1] - The average annual economic growth rate is 5.5%, contributing approximately 30% to global economic growth [1] Innovation and Technology - Research and development investment intensity is expected to increase to 2.68% in 2024, surpassing the overall level of the European Union [1] - Significant technological achievements include the successful commercial flight of the C919 aircraft and advancements in human-like robots and innovative pharmaceuticals [1] Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending has increased by 4 trillion yuan, driven by enhanced confidence from government initiatives such as childcare subsidies and pension increases [2] - New consumption trends are emerging in areas like sports tourism and cultural experiences, reflecting a shift in consumer willingness to spend [2] Renewable Energy and Green Transition - China has established the world's largest and fastest-growing renewable energy system, with total electricity consumption surpassing 1 trillion kilowatt-hours [2] - The country leads globally in the ownership, production, and charging infrastructure of electric vehicles [2] Global Trade and Cultural Influence - China's total goods trade has exceeded 40 trillion yuan, showcasing an expanding global trade network [2] - Chinese cultural products, such as the animated film "Nezha," have achieved significant international success, indicating a growing global cultural influence [2][3] Investment Sentiment - Several international investment banks have upgraded their ratings on Chinese assets to "overweight," leading to increased foreign capital inflow into China [3] - The ongoing economic momentum is viewed as a starting point for future growth, with expectations for continued positive developments in the upcoming five-year plan [3]

编辑：林郑宏 新华财经上海10月21日电 中国银河证券研报分析认为，10月上旬，市场风格切换下食品饮料指数迎来 修复，板块内部零食、啤酒、保健品涨幅靠前，后续风格切换趋势有望延续。展望10月下旬，市场重点 将聚焦于三季报业绩，以新消费方向为代表的公司具备较好业绩，相关绩优个股与板块可重点关注。展 望2025年四季度，建议关注二条线索：一、年底的估值切换行情，关注新消费方向具备扎实基本面的标 的；二、在PPI改善向CPI改善逐渐传导的预期下，可重点关注估值低位+供给出清的顺周期方向。 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a mixed performance in various sectors, with growth in technology and healthcare industries while traditional sectors face challenges [4][5][12] - The macroeconomic environment shows a GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year for the first three quarters, indicating a stable economic backdrop [7] - The report suggests that the A-share market is experiencing a phase of consolidation with structural opportunities emerging, particularly in technology and consumer sectors [6][8] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,863.89, with a slight increase of 0.63%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.98% to 12,813.21 [3] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are 15.74 and 46.77, respectively, indicating a favorable long-term investment environment [6][10] - Trading volume in the A-share market remains robust, with a daily average exceeding 17,000 billion, suggesting strong investor interest [6][10] Industry Analysis - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a slowdown in revenue growth, with a notable decline in certain sub-sectors such as prepared foods and health products [12][14] - The semiconductor industry is on an upward trajectory, with a 13.86% increase in September, driven by strong demand for AI-related hardware [19][20] - The telecommunications sector is seeing growth in 5G services, with a significant increase in mobile data usage and a focus on digital transformation in key industries [23][24] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors such as soft drinks, health products, and baked goods within the food and beverage industry for potential investment opportunities [14][39] - In the semiconductor space, companies involved in AI infrastructure and storage solutions are highlighted as key areas for investment due to rising demand [21][26] - The telecommunications sector is advised for investment, particularly in companies that are leveraging AI and digital technologies to enhance service offerings [26][27]

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Galaxy Securities indicates a market style switch in early October, leading to a recovery in the food and beverage index, with snacks, beer, and health products showing significant gains. The trend of style switching is expected to continue, with a focus on third-quarter earnings reports in late October, particularly for companies in the new consumption sector that are anticipated to perform well [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - The food and beverage sector saw a 1.3% increase from October 1 to October 15, outperforming the Wind All A index by 2.1%, ranking 14th among 31 sub-industries [4]. - Eight out of ten sub-sectors achieved positive monthly returns, with snacks, beer, health products, and seasoning and fermentation products leading the gains at +3.5%, +3.1%, +2.9%, and +2.4% respectively [4]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The 2025 Autumn Sugar and Wine Fair took place from October 11 to 15 in Nanjing, featuring a predominance of small and medium brands, with health-oriented products continuing to drive innovation [1]. - In the liquor segment, there is a weak recovery in demand during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, with high channel inventory indicating a prolonged destocking period [1][2]. - The beverage sector is seeing a high density of NFC juice layouts, with new coconut water brands emerging, while traditional categories are experiencing increased competition [2]. - The snack category is focusing on health trends, with growth in products emphasizing formula optimization and the introduction of traditional Chinese snacks [2]. Group 3: Pricing and Cost Analysis - As of October 15, the wholesale prices for various liquor brands showed slight recovery compared to September, but year-on-year comparisons indicate significant declines [3]. - Packaging material prices have varied, with glass and PET prices down by 4.6% and 13.7% respectively, while aluminum and cardboard prices have increased [3]. - Raw material costs for several key ingredients have decreased year-on-year, with notable declines in pork and quail egg prices, while palm oil and sunflower seed prices have increased [3].

Market Overview - Major indices in China opened higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.18%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.52%, and ChiNext Index up 0.81, led by gains in precious metals and deep earth economy sectors [1] - In the external market, major US indices rose over 1%, with the Dow Jones up 1.12% to 46,706.58 points, S&P 500 up 1.07% to 6,735.13 points, and Nasdaq up 1.37% to 22,990.54 points [3] - Chinese concept stocks also saw collective gains, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising 2.39% [3] Industry Insights - CITIC Securities highlighted the rapid advancement of solid-state battery technology, noting a breakthrough that addresses the solid-solid interface contact issue, which has been a major bottleneck for mass production [4] - The collaboration between Changsheng Technology and Boyuan Co. aims to enhance the supply chain and accelerate the commercialization of sulfide solid-state batteries [4] - Huatai Securities emphasized that internet platform companies are actively seeking commercialization opportunities in their advantageous scenarios, particularly in basic cloud service providers and advertising sectors [5] - CITIC Securities recommended focusing on "small but beautiful" companies in the textile and apparel manufacturing sector, which are showing positive operational changes and potential for valuation re-evaluation [6] - China Galaxy Securities noted a market style shift leading to a recovery in the food and beverage index, with a focus on new consumption trends and companies with solid fundamentals [8]

Report Information - Release Date: October 21, 2025 [3] Market Trends International Futures - International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures up 3.82% at $4374.30 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 2.59% at $51.40 per ounce. Factors include US government shutdown, Fed rate - cut expectations, EU energy policy shift, central bank gold - buying, and Sino - US trade friction [4]. - US crude oil futures' main contract fell 0.38% to $56.93 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures' main contract dropped 0.57% to $60.94 per barrel. Rising global production, slowing economic growth, and reduced geopolitical risks pressured oil prices [4]. - Most London base metals rose. LME zinc, lead, copper, tin, and nickel increased, while LME aluminum declined. The Fed's signal of a possible slowdown in rate hikes and a weaker US dollar drove the price increase [4]. Domestic Futures - Domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Shanghai gold rose over 2%, and Shanghai silver rose over 1%. Some commodities like soybeans and pulp had small increases, while coking coal and soda ash dropped over 2%, and others like glass and coke fell over 1% [6]. Important Information Macroeconomic Information - The People's Bank of China kept the one - year and five - year loan prime rates (LPR) at 3% and 3.5% respectively [8]. - China's GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with an economic increment of 3967.9 billion yuan, 136.8 billion yuan more than the previous year [8]. - As of October 9, 2025, China's futures market capital exceeded 2 trillion yuan, reaching about 2.02 trillion yuan, a 24% increase from the end of 2024 [8]. - As of October 20, 2025, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (European route) was 1140.38 points, up 10.5% from the previous period [9]. Energy and Chemical Futures - The EU plans to gradually stop importing Russian oil and gas by January 1, 2028 [11]. - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange plans to revise the urea futures business rules, adding large - granular urea as an alternative delivery product [13]. - Dalian Commodity Exchange will expand the scope of tradable products for qualified overseas investors, including linear low - density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene monthly average price futures, starting from the night session on October 28, 2025 [13]. - As of October 20, 2025, domestic soda ash manufacturers' total inventory was 1.7107 million tons, up 0.60% from the previous week [13]. Metal Futures - The global lithium demand is expected to grow at an average annual rate of about 20% to 4 million tons by 2030, driven by battery demand [15]. - Some polysilicon production bases in Southwest China will gradually reduce raw material input and stop production by the end of October - early November, with an affected capacity of about 320,000 tons per year [15]. - Global primary aluminum production in September 2025 was 6.08 million tons. China's estimated production was 3.644 million tons [15]. - China's tin concentrate imports in September 2025 were 8714 tons, down 15.13% month - on - month but up 10.68% year - on - year [16]. Black - Series Futures - From October 13 - 19, 2025, global iron ore shipments were 33.335 million tons, up 1.26 million tons from the previous week [19]. - In September 2025, China's crude steel production was 73.49 million tons, down 4.6% year - on - year; pig iron production was 66.05 million tons, down 2.4% year - on - year; and steel production was 124.21 million tons, up 5.1% year - on - year [19]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting on cement industry stability, emphasizing capacity replacement and standardization [19]. - From now until October 23, 2025, Tangshan's section steel mills will implement production control, with an expected开工率 of 33% and a daily output reduction of about 50,000 tons [20]. - HeSteel Group set the final price of silicomanganese in October at 5820 yuan per ton [21]. - Coal mines in Shuozhou's Shanyin County stopped production on October 20, 2025, with a total capacity of 34 million tons, and are expected to resume on October 24 [22]. Agricultural Futures - In the first three quarters, China's pig slaughter was 529.92 million heads, up 1.8% year - on - year, and pork production was 43.68 million tons, up 3.0% year - on - year [25]. - As of the week of October 17, domestic major soybean oil mills' soybean crushing volume was 2.17 million tons, and it is expected to rise to about 2.3 million tons this week [25]. - As of October 17, 2025, palm oil commercial inventory in key regions increased by 5.13% week - on - week, while soybean oil commercial inventory decreased by 3.25% week - on - week [25]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 20 increased by 3.4% compared to the same period last month [26]. - China did not import soybeans from the US in September 2025 and is increasing purchases from South American countries [26]. - As of October 15, the national pig ex - factory price was 11.90 yuan per kilogram, down 6.08% from October 8 [26]. - As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sowing rate was 24%, and the sowing area of the first - crop corn in the central - southern region reached 51% of the planned area [26]. - As of October 20, the national imported soybean port inventory was 6.96254 million tons, up 314,570 tons from the previous week [28]. - US soybean export inspections in the week ending October 16, 2025, were 1.474354 million tons [28]. - As of October 18, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 21.7% [29]. Financial Markets Financial - On Monday, A - shares oscillated with reduced trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.63%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.98%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.98%. Market turnover decreased to 1.75 trillion yuan [31]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 2.42%, the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 3%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 2.45%. Southbound funds had a net sell - off of HK$2.67 billion [31]. - There are rumors that the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges may select a CSI A500ETF as an option underlying asset [31]. Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the implementation of the cement industry's stability plan, including no new capacity, standardizing existing capacity, and eliminating backward capacity [32]. - In the first three quarters, the land transfer fees of 300 cities' residential land increased by 12% year - on - year, but the transaction area decreased by 8%. In the third quarter, the land market cooled [32]. - Shanghai's eighth batch of centralized land auctions had a total transaction amount of 19.877 billion yuan, with a record - high floor price in the Xuhui Riverside area [32]. - The 2025 Beijing International Wind Energy Conference proposed to increase China's annual new wind power installation capacity during the 15th Five - Year Plan period and set long - term installation goals [32]. - As of the end of September, China's electric vehicle charging infrastructure reached 18.063 million units, a 54.5% year - on - year increase [33]. - In September, China's industrial raw coal production decreased by 1.8% year - on - year, while crude oil and natural gas production increased. Crude steel and pig iron production reached new lows since December 2023 [33]. Overseas - The US and Australia signed an agreement on rare earths and critical minerals, planning to invest over $3 billion in the next 6 months and build a gallium processing plant in Western Australia [35]. - Trump claimed that Modi promised to stop buying Russian oil, and threatened to impose "huge" tariffs if India does not fulfill the promise [35]. - The White House's economic advisor said the government shutdown may end this week, and stronger measures may be taken if not [35]. - Argentina's central bank signed a $20 - billion swap agreement with the US Treasury [36]. - The Bank of Korea's governor said the bank has not considered a currency swap with the US Treasury [37]. - The EU supports phasing out Russian natural gas imports by January 2028 [37]. - A hawkish member of the Bank of Japan warned of price - rising risks and said the central bank may raise the benchmark interest rate. The BOJ may slightly raise the 2025 fiscal year's economic growth forecast [37]. - Vietnam's government set a GDP growth target of at least 10% in 2026 and expects an 8% growth this year [38]. International Stock Markets - US stocks rose across the board, driven by Apple's record - high price, hopes of ending the government shutdown, and strong iPhone 17 sales [40]. - European stocks also closed higher, benefiting from better - than - expected Chinese economic data, expectations of Sino - US trade talks, improved corporate earnings, and reduced risk aversion [40]. - Japan's stock market rose strongly after the increased possibility of Takamichi Sanae becoming the prime minister. South Korea's stock market also reached a new high [40]. - Vietnam's stock market tumbled due to reports of corporate bond issuance irregularities in the banking and real - estate sectors [41]. Commodities - On October 9, 2025, China's futures market capital exceeded 2 trillion yuan [42]. - Linear low - density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene monthly average price futures will be listed on October 28, 2025, and are open to qualified overseas investors [44]. Bonds - A - share rebound and progress in Sino - US talks led to rising yields in the inter - bank bond market and falling bond futures prices in China. The central bank conducted 189 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and had a net withdrawal of 64.8 billion yuan [46]. - US Treasury yields fell across the board, driven by increased risk aversion and expectations of Fed rate cuts [46]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1231 on Monday, up 34 basis points. The central parity rate was 7.0973, down 24 basis points [48]. - The CFETS RMB exchange - rate index and other RMB exchange - rate indices declined in the week of October 17 [48]. - The Reserve Bank of India is taking measures to promote the use of the rupee in trade settlements [48]. - The US dollar index rose 0.07% at the New York close. Most non - US currencies fell, while the Australian dollar and offshore RMB rose [48]. Upcoming Events - At 09:20, 91 billion yuan of reverse repurchases by the People's Bank of China will mature [50]. - At 12:20, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino will give a speech [50]. - At 15:00, European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane and President Christine Lagarde will give speeches [50]. - At 21:00, the Federal Reserve will hold a payment innovation meeting, with Governor Christopher Waller giving the opening speech [50]. - At 21:30, European Central Bank Governing Council member Robert Holzmann will give a speech [50]. - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China is being held from October 20 - 23 [50]. - The APEC Finance Ministers' Meeting is being held until October 22 [50]. - Japan will hold a prime - minister nomination election [50]. - US President Trump will announce major tariff measures against Colombia [50]. - UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves will hold a regional investment summit [50]. - Jushuitan will be officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [50]. - China Telecom, Netflix, Coca - Cola, and General Motors will release their financial reports [50]. - At 03:30 the next day, Fed Governor Christopher Waller will give the closing speech at the Fed's payment innovation meeting [50]. - At 06:00 the next day, German Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel will give a speech [50].

Market Overview - The market experienced a pullback after a rise, with the ChiNext Index briefly increasing over 3% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.74 trillion, a decrease of 200.5 billion compared to the previous trading day, marking the lowest trading volume since August 8 [1] - By the end of the trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.63%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.98%, and the ChiNext Index gained 1.98% [1] Solid-State Battery Technology - CITIC Construction pointed out that breakthroughs in solid-state battery technology are accelerating the industrialization process [2] - The research team from the Institute of Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, introduced iodine ions into sulfide electrolytes, which significantly improved battery performance by enhancing the contact at the solid-solid interface [2] - This technology allows for self-repair of the electrode-electrolyte contact without external pressure, potentially speeding up the mass production of solid-state batteries [2] Textile and Apparel Manufacturing - CITIC Securities recommended focusing on "small but beautiful" companies in the textile and apparel manufacturing sector as their visibility is increasing in 2024 [3] - These companies have been under market pressure due to the pandemic and industrial shifts, resulting in low valuations [3] - Positive operational changes are observed as these companies adapt to market conditions, leading to significant improvements in profitability and valuation [3] Food and Beverage Sector - Galaxy Securities noted a recovery in the food and beverage index amid a market style shift, with snacks, beer, and health products showing strong gains [4] - The focus for October will be on third-quarter earnings reports, with companies in the new consumption sector expected to perform well [4] - For the fourth quarter, two key investment themes are suggested: year-end valuation shifts towards companies with solid fundamentals in new consumption and cyclical stocks with low valuations and cleared supply [4]

Core Insights - The food and beverage index has shown recovery in early October due to a market style switch, with snacks, beer, and health products leading the gains [1] - The trend of style switching is expected to continue, with a focus on third-quarter earnings reports in late October [1] - Companies representing new consumption trends are anticipated to perform well, making them key stocks to watch [1] - For the fourth quarter of 2025, two key themes are suggested: 1) Year-end valuation switching focusing on new consumption companies with solid fundamentals; 2) Attention to cyclical stocks with low valuations and supply clearing as PPI improvements gradually transmit to CPI [1]

中国银河证券指出，10月上旬，市场风格切换下食品饮料指数迎来修复，板块内部零食、啤酒、保健品 涨幅靠前，我们认为后续风格切换趋势有望延续。展望10月下旬，市场重点将聚焦于三季报业绩，以新 消费方向为代表的公司具备较好业绩，相关绩优个股与板块可重点关注。展望四季度，我们建议关注二 条线索：1）年底的估值切换行情，关注新消费方向具备扎实基本面的标的；2）在PPI改善向CPI改善逐 渐传导的预期下，可重点关注估值低位+供给出清的顺周期方向。 （文章来源：第一财经） ...

Company News - Industrial Fulian plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3.3 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 6.551 billion yuan (before tax) for the first half of 2025 [11] - Ningde Times reported a revenue of 283.072 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 9.28%, and a net profit of 49.034 billion yuan, up 36.20% [9] - DiAo Micro plans to acquire 100% equity of Rongpai Semiconductor, with shares resuming trading today [2] - China Mobile's third-quarter revenue reached 250.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, with a net profit of 31.1 billion yuan, up 1.4% [10] - Keda Xunfei achieved a third-quarter revenue of 6.078 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.02%, and a net profit of 172 million yuan, up 202.4% [10] - Yanjing Beer reported a third-quarter revenue of 4.875 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.55%, with a net profit of 668 million yuan, up 26% [10] - China Shipbuilding expects a net profit of 5.55 billion to 6.15 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 104.30% to 126.39% [10] - Dazhu CNC reported a revenue of 3.903 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 66.53%, and a net profit of 492 million yuan, up 142.19% [10] Economic Indicators - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the GDP for the first three quarters reached 10,150.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [4] - The People's Bank of China announced that the one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains at 3.0%, and the five-year LPR is at 3.5%, unchanged for five consecutive months [4] - In September, the sales prices of new residential properties in first-tier cities decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, while the year-on-year decline narrowed to 0.7% [5] Industry Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting to address the cement industry's supply-demand imbalance, emphasizing the need for capacity replacement and regulation [6] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange announced an expansion of trading varieties for qualified foreign institutional investors, adding new futures contracts [6] - The total funds in China's futures market surpassed 2 trillion yuan, reaching approximately 2.02 trillion yuan, a 24% increase from the end of 2024 [7]