格隆汇11月3日丨神农集团(605296.SH)公布，截至2025年10月31日，公司本次回购已累计回购股份 658.06万股，占公司当前总股本的比例为1.25%，已支付的总金额为1.80亿元（不含印花税、交易佣金 等交易费用）。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is focusing on reducing its reliance on soybean by utilizing soybean meal as a feed ingredient, which currently accounts for about 7% of its feed usage this year [1] Group 1: Feed Ingredient Strategy - The company does not directly purchase soybeans but uses soybean meal as a feed raw material [1] - The company plans to adjust its feed nutritional formula flexibly based on market trends of feed raw materials while ensuring optimal nutrition for its pig herd [1] - There is potential for further reduction in the use of soybean meal in the company's feed, which will be determined by the prices of soybean meal and amino acids [1] Group 2: Technological Advancements - The company is applying low-soy diets technology by substituting soybean meal with bio-synthesized amino acids to enhance the economic efficiency of its feed formulations [1] - The company aims to continue exploring low-soy diet technologies by leveraging advancements in synthetic biology [1] - The initiative is part of the company's contribution to the national food security strategy by reducing dependence on soybean imports [1]

受二育补栏提振，国内生猪价格近期有所企稳。但往后看，二次育肥补栏高峰已过，对猪价的影响也将 由利多转向利空。因此，由于未来两个月，即11月至12月的两轮出栏均会加码供应，这意味着这两个月 猪价欲破新阶段高点，需要消费端的强有力支撑。但考虑到2026年春节时间较晚等因素，猪价上涨缺乏 屠宰端增量支撑，预计猪价刷年内新高的可能性不大。 具体来看，根据农业农村部监测全国能繁母猪存栏和卓创资讯对能繁母猪存栏量在200头以上规模企业 能繁母猪数据推算，11-12月生猪理论供应量或连续增加。这具体表现在，一方面，根据近7年屠宰量季 节性走势分析，11-12月生猪屠宰量或呈逐步增量的走势，其中11月增幅较小，12月增幅较大。另一方 面，10月规模场前期放量出栏，猪价与散户价差较小，出栏压力较小，月度出栏进度较快，下旬部分养 殖场选择将下月出栏计划提前至10月出栏，因此11月上旬养殖端出栏节奏或偏慢，11月中旬至12月底或 逐步加快。尤其是12月腌腊旺季一般是大猪需求高峰期，养殖端也会选择在这期间集中出栏大体重猪 源，12月供应量增幅或超过11月。 因此，根据理论出栏量与理论屠宰量走势分析，11-12月生猪市场或供增需增，理 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 40th Shandong Livestock Expo showcases Longda Food's strategic positioning in the high-end meat sector, particularly through its premium black pork brand "Longda Heitianpeng" based on the Longda Black Pig [1] Group 1: Product Development - Longda Food has developed the Longda Black Pig by selectively breeding various local black pig breeds, resulting in a hybrid that combines desirable traits from both domestic and European pig breeds [2] - The Longda Black Pig is noted for its rich content of unsaturated fatty acids and sulfur-containing amino acids, providing consumers with a healthier meat option [2] Group 2: Farming Practices - Longda Food has established specialized black pig breeding bases in the Jiaodong Peninsula, utilizing a "self-raising + contract farming" model to enhance its breeding network [2] - The company leverages the region's agricultural advantages by incorporating natural fruits like apples and pears into the pigs' diet, improving feed quality and imparting a unique sweetness to the pork [2] Group 3: Quality Control - The "Longda Heitianpeng" brand is built on a comprehensive management system that ensures quality from breeding to consumption, adhering to a "six unification" standard [5] - Longda Food implements rigorous pathogen risk assessments and maintains traceability throughout the supply chain, ensuring product safety and quality stability [5] - The company employs low-temperature aging and precise cutting techniques, along with a cold chain logistics system, to preserve the flavor and nutritional value of the meat [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - Longda Food aims to leverage its full industry chain advantages to advance its high-end meat business, with ongoing investments in the Longda Black Pig breed and the Longda Heitianpeng brand [5] - The company is committed to enhancing its industry chain construction to contribute to the high-quality development of the livestock sector [5]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - The central price of live pigs may further decline [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Fundamental Data - Henan spot price is 12,530 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton year-on-year; Sichuan spot price is 12,250 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year-on-year; Guangdong spot price is 13,060 yuan/ton, unchanged year-on-year [3] - Futures prices: Live Pig 2601 is 11,815 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton year-on-year; Live Pig 2603 is 11,375 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton year-on-year; Live Pig 2605 is 11,895 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton year-on-year [3] - Trading volume and open interest: Live Pig 2601 trading volume is 82,374 lots, down 30,030 lots from the previous day, and open interest is 134,889 lots, down 924 lots from the previous day; Live Pig 2603 trading volume is 20,882 lots, down 6,191 lots from the previous day, and open interest is 105,428 lots, up 1,344 lots from the previous day; Live Pig 2605 trading volume is 8,442 lots, down 5,429 lots from the previous day, and open interest is 56,238 lots, up 775 lots from the previous day [3] - Price spreads: Live Pig 2601 basis is 715 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton year-on-year; Live Pig 2603 basis is 1,155 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton year-on-year; Live Pig 2605 basis is 635 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton year-on-year; Live Pig 1 - 3 spread is 440 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton year-on-year; Live Pig 3 - 5 spread is -520 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton year-on-year [3] Market Information - Trend intensity is -1, indicating a bearish view [4] Futures Research - Yuexiu and Yangxiang have added delivery warehouses [5] - The national feed output in September was 30.36 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.4% and a year-on-year increase of 5% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company is adapting its feed formulation strategy by reducing soybean meal usage and exploring low-soy diets to enhance cost efficiency and reduce reliance on imported soybeans [2]. Group 1: Soybean Procurement and Usage - The company does not directly procure soybeans but uses soybean meal as a feed ingredient, with soybean meal accounting for approximately 7% of its feed usage this year [2]. - There is potential for further reduction in soybean meal usage in the company's feed formulations, which will be determined based on market prices of soybean meal and amino acids [2]. Group 2: Cost Optimization and Profit Impact - The company is implementing low-soy diet technology, utilizing synthetic amino acids to replace soybean meal, which is expected to improve the economic efficiency of feed formulations [2]. - The impact of these cost optimizations on the company's annual net profit is yet to be quantified, but the focus remains on enhancing profitability through these strategies [2].

Group 1 - The article discusses the concept of the "pig cycle" in relation to China's inflation, indicating that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflects the fluctuations in pork prices, which serve as both a barometer and a locator for inflation trends [5][6]. - In the period from January to September 2025, China's CPI remained in negative territory except for January and June-July, with pork prices also experiencing a downward trend during the same period [6]. - In September 2025, pork prices fell by 17.0%, contributing to a decrease in CPI by approximately 0.26%, highlighting that pork's weight in the CPI basket is only 1.53%, which is significantly lower than market expectations [6]. Group 2 - The article emphasizes that despite pork's minor share in the CPI, it has become a benchmark commodity for inflation in China due to its broad necessity and high elasticity characteristics [6].

Summary of Conference Call on Swine Industry Industry Overview - The swine market is currently experiencing a dual increase in supply and demand, but supply pressure remains significant. The number of new piglets is expected to rise in the first half of 2025, leading to increased fattening output in Q4 2025. However, the breeding group has a pessimistic outlook for 2026, compounded by high Q4 output, which continues to exert supply pressure [1][4]. Key Financial Insights - The swine industry faced losses at the end of Q3 and the beginning of Q4 2025, with cash costs around 11 RMB/kg. Small and medium-sized farmers are losing approximately 16 RMB and 34 RMB per pig, respectively, while those purchasing piglets are facing losses of 257 RMB per pig. The overall profitability of the industry is under pressure, and production capacity is entering a phase of reduction [1][5]. Production Capacity and Market Predictions - It is anticipated that swine production capacity will continue to decrease in the near term. In September 2025, the number of breeding sows decreased by 90,000 compared to the end of Q2. The industry is expected to face losses again in Q4 2025 and the first half of 2026, accelerating the capacity reduction process under government encouragement to control production [1][6]. Investment Recommendations - The company recommends investing in Muyuan Foods, which maintains industry-leading costs and is increasing its dividend levels while reducing its debt ratio, indicating potential for value re-evaluation. Other recommended companies include Wens Foodstuff Group and several second-tier firms with good growth potential, low costs, and attractive valuations, such as Dekang Bange, Shennong Group, Juxing Agriculture, Tiankang Co., and Lihua Co. These companies have relatively stable debt ratios and are expected to have advantages in the next cycle [1][7][8]. Market Trends and Opportunities - The current market price trend for swine is in a clear downward phase, with prices dropping below expectations post-October. Although there has been a recent rebound to 12.2 RMB/kg, this is primarily due to previous sharp declines and absorption by the breeding group. Overall, supply remains high, and prices are expected to remain under pressure in the coming months [3][4]. Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical data indicates that excess returns in each cycle often occur during the capacity reduction phase. The current situation presents a critical opportunity for investment, as industry losses and accelerated capacity reduction lay the groundwork for future upward cycles [2][9].

Core Insights - The article highlights the innovative financial solutions provided by Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) in Shuozhou to support the local livestock industry, particularly in sheep and dairy farming [1][2][3] Financial Innovation - ABC Shuozhou branch introduced the "Smart Livestock Loan" in 2022, enabling live animals to be used as collateral through IoT technology, thus addressing the financing challenges faced by livestock enterprises [2] - The bank's efforts include on-site promotion of products and real-time monitoring of collateralized livestock, which alleviates banks' risk concerns while converting "live assets" into "live funds" for farmers [2] Industry Support - The Jinshatan Lamb Meat Industry Co., Ltd. in Shuozhou, a key agricultural enterprise, has a slaughtering capacity of 6 million sheep annually and supports 12,000 farmers, with its brand value reaching 4.678 billion yuan [2] - ABC Shuozhou branch provided comprehensive financial support to this company, facilitating its growth and the establishment of a circular industry system from feed planting to meat processing [3] Financing Solutions for Farmers - ABC Shuozhou branch has tailored financing solutions for various farming needs, including "Wealthy Farmers Loan" and "Small Farmers Loan," simplifying approval processes and reducing costs for smallholders [4] - The bank has established a green channel for quick loan approvals, enhancing accessibility for farmers in remote areas through online applications and local manager engagement in community groups [4] Future Plans - The bank aims to continue focusing on high-quality development in the livestock sector, enhancing its financial product offerings and support for leading enterprises and cooperatives [5]

Industry News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has released a draft for public consultation regarding the performance comparison benchmarks for publicly offered securities investment funds, aiming to enhance the stability of public fund investment behavior and clarify product investment styles [7] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced tax policies related to gold, stating that members or clients trading standard gold through the Shanghai Gold Exchange or Shanghai Futures Exchange will be exempt from value-added tax when selling standard gold [7] - According to data from the China Index Academy, the total sales of the top 100 real estate companies in the first ten months of 2025 reached 2.89671 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.3%. In October alone, the sales of these companies increased by 3.7% month-on-month [7] - The China Animal Husbandry Association emphasized the need to control pig production capacity, urging large enterprises to lead by example in responding to national regulatory policies [7] Company News - Vanke A announced a framework agreement with Shenzhen Metro Group, which allows Shenzhen Metro Group to provide a loan limit of up to 22 billion yuan to the company [9] - Anshi China stated that it has established sufficient finished and in-process inventory to continuously meet customer order demands [8] - Wens Foodstuff Group announced a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd. on November 1 [10] - Qianqiu Technology is under investigation by the CSRC for suspected false reporting of financial data [10] Global Market - Berkshire Hathaway reported a net profit of $30.796 billion and operating profit of $13.485 billion for Q3 2025, with cash reserves reaching a record high of $381.67 billion [11] - Elon Musk predicted that traditional mobile phones and apps will disappear in the next 5-6 years, suggesting that what we currently refer to as phones will evolve into AI inference edge nodes [11]