Core Insights - The American dream of owning a large house with a white picket fence is fading for many, yet 379,000 new millionaires emerged in the U.S. last year, indicating a shift in wealth accumulation [1][2]. Group 1: Millionaire Growth - According to UBS, over 1,000 new millionaires are created daily in the U.S., with the ultra-high-net-worth population growing by 1.5% [2]. - The U.S. has the highest number of millionaires globally, four times that of China, and surpasses the combined total of millionaires in France, the UK, Germany, Canada, Japan, and Australia [3]. Group 2: Wealth Composition - The surge in millionaire numbers is primarily driven by real estate appreciation, alongside record performance in the stock market [4]. - The "middle-class millionaire" segment, defined as those with assets between $1 million and $5 million, is becoming the main growth driver, holding a total wealth of approximately $107 trillion, which is over four times that of the early 2000s [5]. - In the U.S., real estate and mortgages account for 30% of wealth, while securities and financial instruments make up 37%, highlighting the effectiveness of investment strategies [5]. Group 3: Future Wealth Transfer - An estimated $83 trillion in wealth will be transferred globally over the next 20 to 25 years, with $74 trillion expected to be passed down through generations, suggesting a continued rise in new millionaires [6]. Group 4: Economic Disparities - Despite the increase in millionaires, many Americans face economic challenges, with the top 20% of households holding an average net worth of $4.3 million, representing 71% of national wealth, while the bottom 50% average only $60,000 [7]. - Ordinary Americans are accumulating wealth through insurance and retirement plans, although younger generations have yet to fully embrace these methods [7]. Group 5: Real Estate Investment Advice - Real estate mogul Barbara Corcoran advises potential investors to act quickly in the current market, suggesting that a decrease in interest rates could lead to a surge in property prices [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is currently conducting a routine review of its monetary policy strategy, with significant attention on the outcomes due to past controversies surrounding similar reviews [1][2]. Group 1: Review Focus Areas - The review will focus on the "long-term goals and monetary policy strategy statement" and communication tools [1]. - The results of the review are expected to be announced by late summer, with hints provided during a recent meeting led by Powell [1]. Group 2: Potential Changes in Strategy - Goldman Sachs economists predict that the review may lead to a softening of the "flexible average inflation targeting" policy established in late 2020 [1]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may reaffirm its response to "dual deviations" from maximum employment during normal times, potentially downplaying the term "shortfall" [2]. - There is a possibility of reverting to "flexible inflation targeting" as the primary strategy, while retaining the option for a "compensatory strategy" under certain conditions [2]. Group 3: Implications of Inflation Dynamics - Critics argue that the current strategy may have contributed to high inflation during the pandemic, although Powell and senior economists disagree [2]. - The implementation of the "flexible average inflation targeting" policy coincided with unique global economic shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which have complicated inflation dynamics [2][3]. Group 4: Communication Strategy Adjustments - Adjustments to the Fed's communication strategy may have more significant implications than the informal abandonment of the "flexible average inflation targeting" policy [4]. - Two specific suggestions for enhancing communication include providing alternative economic scenarios to highlight risks and linking FOMC officials' economic and interest rate forecasts while maintaining anonymity [5].

Core Viewpoint - Since 2025, the global trade landscape has undergone profound changes, with tariff wars and geopolitical factors significantly impacting Chinese companies' "going out" strategy, particularly in the context of overseas mergers and acquisitions (M&A) [1] Group 1: Challenges and Opportunities in M&A - Despite numerous challenges, opportunities remain in cross-border M&A projects that exhibit industrial synergy, technological complementarity, and market expansion potential [1] - Key issues in cross-border M&A include policy compliance, financing costs, and transaction structures, which have become central topics for companies [1] Group 2: Event Information - An offline seminar hosted by the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) will take place in Beijing on July 10, 2025, from 15:00 to 17:30 [2] - The agenda includes various thematic discussions, such as a review of the Chinese M&A market in the first half of the year and observations on recent outbound activities of Chinese enterprises [2] Group 3: Speakers and Expertise - Notable speakers include: - He Jia, Head of M&A at China Galaxy Securities, with 22 years of investment banking experience [4] - Liu Weiming, an economist and institutional investor known for his macroeconomic research [5] - Liu Chengwei, a partner at Global Law Firm, specializing in M&A and capital markets [6] - Feng Kai, Senior Investment Banking Data Manager at LSEG, with 16 years of experience in transaction data [7] - Ling Yufeng, Senior Client Learning Manager at LSEG, with expertise in financial information solutions [8]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs issued a strong warning that the US dollar may begin a new round of decline following the release of the June non-farm payroll data on July 3 [1] - The dollar index has dropped 10.8% in the first half of 2025, marking the worst performance for the same period since 1973 [1] - A significant deterioration in the US job market could reinforce market expectations for a dovish Federal Reserve policy, further driving the dollar index down [1] Group 2 - The easing of international geopolitical risks and the reduction of domestic fiscal policy noise are weakening the dollar's long-standing role as a safe-haven currency [1] - Even if the non-farm data is not as bad as expected, multiple factors could still lead to a gradual decline in the dollar index [1] - A weaker dollar is expected to positively impact emerging markets, supporting arbitrage trading strategies and potentially strengthening Asian currencies like the renminbi [1] Group 3 - Federal Reserve officials have recently adopted a more dovish tone regarding interest rate cuts, with Chairman Powell indicating the possibility of a cut in July if economic data supports it [3] - The market widely anticipates that the Federal Reserve will cut rates twice by the end of 2025, with Treasury Secretary Yellen suggesting cuts could occur as early as September [3] - Other institutions, such as Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan, also predict further declines in the dollar index due to rising expectations for Fed rate cuts [3][4]

| | | | | | CME FEDWATCH TOOL - CONDITIONAL MEETING PROBABILITIES | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | MEETING DATE 200-225 225-250 250-275 275-300 300-325 325-350 | | | | | 350-375 | | 375-400 400-425 425-450 | | | 2025/7/30 | | | | | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 26.9% | 73.1% | | 2025/9/17 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 22.1% | 64.9% | 12.9% | | 2025/10/29 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 16.1% | 53.3% | 27.1% | 3.5% | | 2025/1 ...

Core Viewpoint - International investors are increasingly focused on Chinese assets, as evidenced by multiple foreign institutions hosting "China-themed" forums and raising GDP growth forecasts for China by 2025 [1][2][3] Group 1: Economic Growth Predictions - Foreign institutions have raised their GDP growth forecasts for China in 2025 due to reduced external disturbances and enhanced domestic growth policies [1] - Morgan Stanley's chief economist for China, Xie Ziqiang, predicts a fiscal package worth 500 billion to 1 trillion yuan to support urban renewal and infrastructure [2] - Nomura's chief economist for China, Lu Ting, has also raised GDP growth predictions for 2025, citing stronger-than-expected retail data supported by the "trade-in" policy [2] Group 2: Capital Market Outlook - UBS's head of China equity strategy, Wang Zonghao, believes that foreign capital will return to the Chinese stock market in the coming quarters, with Hong Kong's IPO market raising $9 billion so far this year, a 320% increase year-on-year [3] - Goldman Sachs has raised its 12-month target for the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index to 84 points and 4600 points, respectively, indicating potential upside of 11% and 17% [3] - Morgan Stanley has also adjusted its target indices for major Chinese stock indices, reflecting ongoing structural improvements in the Chinese economy [3] Group 3: Earnings Performance - Morgan Stanley's chief Asia and China equity strategist, Liu Mingdi, noted that the MSCI China Index had a strong performance last year, with actual EPS growth reaching 16%, surpassing the initial expectation of 14% [4] - The market's consensus EPS growth expectation for the MSCI China Index this year is 8%, with leading internet companies continuing to perform well [4] - Liu Mingdi projects the MSCI China Index to reach 80 points under baseline and 89 points under optimistic scenarios this year [4]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Insights 1. Asia FX Volatility Strategies - Recommendations include selling USDCNH risk reversals, buying USDKRW puts, and selling USDTWD call spreads. [1][2] - Specific trades suggested: - Sell 6m USDCNH 25d RR at 0.25% and 1y USDCNH 25d RR at 0.55% [3][4] - Buy 3m USDKRW 1350 EKO at 33 bps [4] - Buy 3m USDSGD 1.24 digi put at 11.20% [4] - Sell 3m USDTWD 30.25/31.00 call spread for 46.3 bps [4] - Buy 1y 82 USDINR Digi Put at 9.2% [4] 2. Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) - 30-year JGB yields have risen sharply, now above German bund yields, indicating a lack of demand for long-duration bonds [7][8][12]. - Concerns about Japan's fiscal position are growing, with calls for consumption tax cuts ahead of elections [7][8]. - The market is expected to see increased ultra-long inventories, but foreign demand remains weak [9][11]. 3. China Trade Optimism - Recent headlines suggest that US-China trade optimism may have peaked [15][19]. - G7 countries are discussing tariffs on low-value goods from China, which could negatively impact trade [16][17]. - China's response to US restrictions on Huawei chips has intensified, indicating a tougher stance [18]. 4. Taiwan Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) Implications - Taiwan's SWF aims to invest overseas to enhance government income and support national security and infrastructure [27]. - The SWF's launch is linked to Taiwan's involvement in the Alaska gas project, capped at 50% of an estimated US$44 billion investment [27]. - Potential funding sources for the SWF include government-issued bonds and fiscal surpluses [28]. 5. Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) Movements - The HKMA has noted recent strengthening of the HKD and discussed liquidity injections following the LERS trigger [32][33]. - The HKMA emphasizes that lower yields are beneficial for the Hong Kong economy, with low chances of intervention unless the HKD hits 7.85 [33]. Additional Important Insights - The CFETS index has shown volatility, reflecting US-China trade talk optimism followed by declines [26]. - The PBoC may resist large RMB appreciation to protect exporter margins and employment [20][23]. - Taiwanese exporters have been asked to limit daily USD sales, indicating central bank intervention in the FX market [29]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and recommendations from the conference call, highlighting the current trends and potential impacts on the respective markets.

高盛突然将美联储降息预期从12月提前至9月，这个看似简单的日期调整，实则暗藏玄机。作为深耕量 化领域多年的观察者，我注意到每次这样的重大预期调整，都会引发资本市场的连锁反应。但有趣的 是，当普通投资者还在争论降息幅度时，专业机构早已完成了战略布局。详细仔细讲 一，降息预期的蝴蝶效应 高盛这份报告像块石头砸进池塘，荡起的涟漪远比表面看到的复杂。当普通投资者还在争论"9月还是12 月降息"时，真正的老手早就开始翻检历史数据——2019年美联储转向宽松前夕，A股有47%的个股在政 策落地前三个月就走出独立行情。 但诡异的是，这些股票在启动前都呈现相似特征：日均换手率不足2%、波动率压缩至历史低位、甚至 财报季也毫无亮点。就像深夜便利店的值班员，明明货架在悄悄补货，却偏要装作打瞌睡的样子。 二、机构成本的暗箱游戏 这种行为模式在量化领域被称为"沙丁鱼策略"——就像罐头厂故意延迟捕捞让鱼群挤得更密，机构通过 反复震荡把浮动筹码清洗干净。等新闻出来时，他们手里攥着的已经是打折收购的带血筹码。 PS： 上文图中的橙色柱状，是我用系统观察的「机构交易特征」数据叫做「机构库存」。 如果「机构库存」数据越活跃，那就意味着参与交易 ...

消息人士：中金公司、中信和高盛正在筹划立讯精密在香港的股票发售。 ...

Core Insights - Recent data on U.S. tariff revenue has garnered significant attention, with annualized tariff revenue reaching an astonishing $327 billion, accounting for 1.1% of GDP [1] - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that regardless of whether the tax burden falls on producers or consumers, it will inevitably have a negative impact on economic growth [1] Tariff Revenue Trends - As of June 26, the U.S. customs net revenue reached $27.3 billion, reflecting a rapid increase in tariff revenue [1] - Tariff revenue has shown a clear upward trend, rising from $15.6 billion in April to $22.2 billion in May, and then to $27.3 billion in June [1] - The annualized tariff revenue of $327 billion is equivalent to 65% of the projected corporate income tax for 2024 and 32% of non-withheld personal income tax, indicating a substantial economic burden on individuals and businesses [1] Impact on Corporate Profitability - If companies fully absorb the tariff costs, the profit margin for U.S. non-financial companies is projected to decline from 13.8% to 11.7%, which is below the 15-year average of 12.2% [2] - Even if companies pass some or all of the tariff costs onto consumers, the negative impact on profitability cannot be entirely mitigated [2] Economic Growth Concerns - The tariffs pose a threat to overall economic growth, with Morgan Stanley emphasizing that the substantial tax revenue will not contribute positively to economic expansion [4] - Other economic indicators, such as a mere 1.7% year-on-year growth in air passenger volume as of May, suggest a slowdown in consumer activity, further intensifying economic downward pressure [4] Investment Recommendations - Given the increased economic downside risks, Morgan Stanley maintains its investment advice, suggesting a bullish stance on U.S. Treasury bonds due to potential further declines in interest rates [5] - The firm also recommends a bearish outlook on the U.S. dollar, anticipating a shift towards accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [5] - Investors are advised to monitor market movements around July 9 and consider increasing long positions in U.S. Treasuries, capitalizing on the rise in yields due to tariff news [5]