Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade dispute between the EU and the US is primarily focused on tariffs in specific industries, particularly steel, automobiles, copper, and potentially pharmaceuticals [1] Group 1: Trade Dispute Details - The EU exports mainly pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and machinery, highlighting the urgency for a trade agreement with the US to achieve clear outcomes [1] - The US has not committed to lowering tariffs or accepted the EU's proposal for a "freeze clause," which would prevent new trade restrictions before a final agreement is reached [1] - The EU is prepared to implement countermeasures, with the first phase set to automatically take effect on July 14 [1] Group 2: Political Context - The current US administration, under President Trump, is perceived as lacking sincerity in negotiations, focusing more on "language of power" rather than fostering a partnership [1] - Trump announced a new 50% tariff on all copper imports to the US, although the specific effective date for this tariff has not been disclosed [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by President Trump regarding potential high tariffs on copper and pharmaceuticals has led to a decline in Hong Kong's stock market, with the Hang Seng Index falling below 24,000 points, reflecting increased macroeconomic risks and impacting market sentiment [1][4]. Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed down 1.06% at 23,892.32 points, with a total trading volume of 233.88 billion HKD. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 1.28%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 1.76% [1]. - Major blue-chip stocks experienced significant movements, with Henderson Land Development leading the decline, down 8.64% at 25.9 HKD, while China Biologic Products rose 10.06% to 5.91 HKD [2]. Sector Analysis - The technology sector saw a collective decline, with Alibaba down nearly 4% and Tencent over 1%. The copper sector was negatively impacted by Trump's tariff threats, leading to a drop in copper-related stocks [3][6]. - The innovative drug sector performed well, with Hengrui Medicine surging 15.61% to 69.6 HKD, indicating resilience amid broader market declines [3][4]. Specific Stock Movements - Macau's gaming sector showed strong performance, with Wynn Macau up 6.33% and Melco Resorts up 2.12%, driven by robust gaming revenue growth [4][5]. - Copper stocks faced significant declines, with Luoyang Molybdenum down 4.74% and Jiangxi Copper down 3.46%, reflecting market reactions to tariff announcements [5][6]. Commodity Prices - International gold prices fell below 3,300 USD per ounce, influenced by reduced safe-haven demand amid tariff uncertainties. Analysts expect gold prices to remain volatile within a range of 3,000 to 3,500 USD per ounce [7].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a 50% tariff on imported copper by President Trump is expected to significantly impact the copper market and related stocks, with immediate reactions observed in stock prices and futures trading [4][10]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Copper-related stocks in the A-share market experienced volatility, with Northern Copper rising over 5% before turning negative, while Zijin Mining and Pengxin Resources fell by over 3% and 2%, respectively [1]. - In the Hong Kong market, China Daye Nonferrous Metals saw a rise of over 13%, and Jiangxi Copper rose by over 3% at one point [2]. Group 2: Tariff Announcement Details - Trump announced plans to raise copper tariffs to 50%, which is earlier and higher than industry expectations, although the effective date remains unspecified [4][5]. - The U.S. Department of Commerce confirmed the completion of an investigation into the proposed tariffs, aligning copper tariffs with those already imposed on steel and aluminum [5]. Group 3: Impact on Copper Prices - Following the tariff announcement, New York copper futures surged by 17% at one point, closing with a 13.12% increase, marking the largest single-day gain since 1989 [10]. - Analysts predict that the clarity of the tariff implementation timeline will significantly affect non-U.S. market pricing, potentially leading to a decrease in copper prices in non-U.S. regions [12]. - The 50% tariff is expected to add approximately $5,000 per ton or $2.25 per pound to U.S. copper prices, which may lead to demand destruction risks due to the current high price levels [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [6] 2. Core Viewpoints - Currently, the TC price remains extremely low, and the demand outlook is not very optimistic. However, based on the published data, the terminal performance is acceptable. With the continuous flow of inventories from Shanghai and London to the New York market, the low inventory makes the near - month contracts vulnerable to squeeze risks. Therefore, it is expected that the price will be more likely to rise than fall in the future, and the operation should mainly focus on buying hedges on dips [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Futures Quotes**: On July 8, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 79,370 yuan/ton and closed at 79,620 yuan/ton, a 0.44% increase from the previous trading day's close. The night - session contract opened at 79,590 yuan/ton and closed at 80,300 yuan/ton, a 0.69% increase from the afternoon close [1]. - **Spot Situation**: The spot market of electrolytic copper continued to operate weakly. The SMM1 electrolytic copper was quoted at 79,660 - 79,930 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 85 yuan/ton, narrowing by 10 yuan from the previous day. As the delivery date approaches, the spot premium may be further pressured [2]. Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper starting August 1, and the US Commerce Secretary expected to issue 15 - 20 tariff letters in the next two days, with copper tariffs to be implemented in late July or on August 1 [3]. - **Domestic Policy**: The Chinese President pointed out during an inspection in Shanxi that China should build an important energy and raw material base and develop a new energy system [3]. - **Mine End**: In 2024, Chinese overseas mining investment was very active, with 10 transactions exceeding $100 million. In 2025, the strong momentum continued, such as Zijin Mining's acquisition of a gold mine in Kazakhstan and Baiyin Non - ferrous Group's acquisition of a copper - gold mine in Brazil [4]. - **Smelting and Import**: The new LME warehouse in Hong Kong attracted 100 tons of copper in "non - warrant" form before its official opening in mid - July. A large - scale copper smelting plant in Tongling achieved carbon neutrality [4]. - **Consumption**: In June 2025, the actual output of domestic recycled copper rods was 251,200 tons, a 7.11% month - on - month increase and a 0.06% year - on - year decrease. The planned output in July is 240,200 tons, a 4.41% month - on - month decrease and a 1.11% year - on - year increase [5]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts increased by 2,125 tons to 102,500 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2,573 tons to 19,109 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 142,900 tons, an increase of 11,100 tons from the previous week [5]. Strategy - **Copper**: Adopt a cautious and bullish strategy, mainly buying hedges on dips [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Put on hold [6]. - **Options**: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [6]

特朗普，将"关税大棒"对准特定行业！ 当地时间7月8日，美国总统特朗普表示，将对所有进口到美国的铜征收50%的新关税。他还透露，美国政府正 打算对药品、半导体以及其他多个特定行业征收新的关税。其中，对药品征收的新关税可能高达200%，但不 会在短期内生效。 在特朗普发出上述关税威胁后，当地时间8日盘中，纽约期铜一度飙升超17%，最高触及5.8955美元/磅。截至 当天收盘时，纽约期铜涨幅仍接近10%。9日亚市早盘，纽约期铜下跌近3%。 在8日当天的白宫内阁会议上，特朗普再次表示，美联储主席鲍威尔应立即辞职。特朗普还威胁对俄罗斯追加 制裁。他还表示，韩国应该自行支付军事防卫费用。 来看详细报道！ 特朗普威胁对铜和药品征收高额关税 美国总统特朗普当地时间7月8日表示，将对所有进口到美国的铜征收50%的新关税，但他没有透露新关税生效 具体时间。不过，据美媒报道，在内阁会议结束后，美国商务部长卢特尼克说，商务部已完成对铜进口状况的 调查，他预计新关税"可能在7月底或8月1日实施"。 特朗普当天在白宫召开内阁会议时说："我认为我们将把铜的关税提高到50%。"他还说，美国政府正打算对药 品、半导体以及其他多个特定行业征收 ...

据央视及新华社报道证实，7月8日特朗普政府表示，将对所有进口到美国的铜征收50%的新关税，而据 美国消费者新闻与商业频道报道，在特朗普内阁会议结束后，美国商务部长卢特尼克最新说，美国商务 部已完成对铜进口状况的调查，他预计新关税"可能在7月底或8月1日实施"。 尽管特朗普政府的贸易政策反复多变，但由于事发突然且已点燃金融资本的逐利冲动。风口浪尖的铜市 场金融定价掀起巨浪，冲击中美欧贸易稳定性与金融定价！ 8日当日纽约铜价单日暴涨逾10%，因美国瞬间涌现多头逼空及大量空头回补潮，美国铜期货正上演单 日突破历史高位记录的逼空大戏，与此同时伦敦铜价高位巨震日内回落近2%，而我国铜期货价格8日夜 盘结束仍以微涨收盘，但预计9日开盘交易后预计沪铜将小幅调整回落后跟跌伦敦铜。 但由于铜资源卡脖子问题突出，预计全球铜价经历了短期割裂之后，中国铜现货将依赖"上游资金极紧 缺，可交割铜库存极低，下游反内卷回暖"等结构性强势因素，中长期预计维持抗跌坚挺，下半年或将 朝向年内新高！ 从铜市本轮结构变化来看，目前美国铜期货市场上演逼空行情后，现货升水升至极端历史高位水平，而 伦敦LME铜价则因跨大西洋贸易流断裂担忧承压下行，美国与欧 ...

Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View - Amid the traditional consumption off - season in China, the total global electrolytic copper inventory has been continuously accumulating. However, due to the US imposing tariffs on imported copper leading to inter - market arbitrage trading and disruptions in overseas copper mine production or transportation, copper prices may fluctuate strongly. It is recommended that investors close their previous short positions at low prices and lightly test long positions on the main contract. Pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On July 8, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,620, up 350 from the previous day; trading volume was 61,263 hands, down 14,051; open interest was 207,382 hands, up 2,876; inventory was 19,109 tons, down 2,573. The average price of SMN 1 electrolytic copper was 79,795, down 90 [2]. - **London Copper**: On July 8, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,665, down 119; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants decreased by 102,500. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 51.31, down 28.49; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 10.76, down 16.61. The Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 8.2380, up 0.14 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On July 8, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 5.51, up 0.37; the total inventory was 221,788, up 834 [2]. Important Information - **Macro**: The US Senate - version "bill" was passed, planning to raise the debt ceiling to $5 trillion, with the fiscal deficit expected to expand by over $3 trillion. The Trump administration's tariff policy has not significantly affected consumption. The US ADP employment number in August was - 33,000, lower than expected and the previous value, reducing the probability of the Fed not cutting interest rates in July, but the expected interest - rate cut time is still September/October/December [3][4]. - **Upstream**: China's copper concentrate import index is negative but rising compared to last week. The departure (arrival) volume of copper concentrate at ports in the world (China) has decreased (increased). High - quality European scrap copper exports are restricted, and due to Sino - US trade disputes, traders are reluctant to accept US scrap copper. However, the positive price difference between domestic electrolytic copper and bright and aged scrap copper may increase the economic viability of scrap copper, and the scrap copper import window is open. Some copper smelters are affected by supply shortages and have stopped production. Domestic electrolytic copper production in July may increase month - on - month, while imports may be restricted, and the total inventory has increased [4]. - **Downstream**: Some copper processing enterprises plan to reduce production and inventory in July. The capacity utilization rate of various copper product enterprises has generally declined month - on - month. Affected by Sino - US tariffs and the traditional consumption off - season, the capacity utilization rate, production, import, and export volume of domestic steel enterprises in July may decline, except for copper foil whose capacity utilization rate may increase [4]. Company News - Northern Copper Industry (000737) stated that its produced rolled copper foil is an upstream product of the PCB business chain, with a current production capacity of 5,000 tons per year [2]. - The Indonesian Minister of the Interior requested the relaxation of the copper concentrate export ban on Amman Mineral International due to its impact on the local economy [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration plans to impose additional tariffs on imported copper and related products, with a 50% tariff on copper and a 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals and their raw materials, aiming to boost domestic production and reduce import dependency [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Implementation - The additional tariffs on copper and pharmaceuticals are expected to be officially announced soon, with the copper tariffs likely to take effect between late July and early August [1][2]. - The tariffs will cover not only copper itself but also a wide range of copper-related products, including copper wire, scrap copper, and other derivatives [2]. Group 2: Market Impact - Following the announcement of the proposed copper tariffs, copper futures on the New York Commodity Exchange (COMEX) rose to $5.89 per pound, marking an increase of nearly 20% compared to levels before the tariff announcement [2]. Group 3: Domestic Production Goals - The Trump administration aims to increase domestic copper production by 70% by 2035, reducing import reliance from 45% to 30% [3]. - The administration is advancing the "Resolution Copper Mine" development plan in Arizona, which has faced opposition from local indigenous groups [3]. Group 4: Strategic Importance of Copper - Copper is considered a critical material for national security, ranking second in usage among various materials by the U.S. Department of Defense, and is essential for infrastructure and electric vehicles [2][3].

新华社北京7月9日电 继下令延长"对等关税"90天暂缓期至8月1日后，美国总统特朗普8日称，这一日期"不会再变"，还表示将对所有进口到 美国的铜征收50%的新关税。 特朗普在"真实社交"上的帖文截图 特朗普：不会再延期 特朗普8日在社交媒体"真实社交"上写道："根据昨天发给各国的信函，以及今明两天和接下来一段时间内将要发送的信函，关税将于2025年8 月1日开始实施。" 他强调："这一日期没有变化，以后也不会变！" 特朗普当天在白宫召开内阁会议时还表示，将对所有进口到美国的铜征收50%的新关税，但没有透露新关税生效具体时间。 7日，特朗普在社交媒体上陆续发布了他写给日本、韩国、马来西亚、哈萨克斯坦、南非、老挝、缅甸、突尼斯、波黑、印度尼西亚、孟加拉 国、塞尔维亚、柬埔寨、泰国等14国领导人的信函，表示将分别对这些国家的进口产品征收25%至40%不等的关税。 在这些内容几乎完全相同的信中，特朗普警告收信国领导人称，如果想提高关税作为回应，美国将在此次税率基础上再提高同等额度的关 税。同时，如果这些国家或其企业决定在美国境内生产产品，将不会被征收关税。如果相关国家将国内市场向美国开放，同时消除关税和非关税 贸易壁 ...

特朗普，将"关税大棒"对准特定行业！ 当地时间7月8日，美国总统特朗普表示，将对所有进口到美国的铜征收50%的新关税。他还透露，美国政府正 打算对药品、半导体以及其他多个特定行业征收新的关税。其中，对药品征收的新关税可能高达200%，但不 会在短期内生效。 特朗普当天在白宫召开内阁会议时说："我认为我们将把铜的关税提高到50%。"他还说，美国政府正打算对药 品、半导体以及其他多个特定行业征收新的关税，并举例说，可能会对外国制造的药品征收高达200%的新关 税。 不过，对药品的新关税不会在短期内生效，目的是给制药企业迁到美国留出一定时间。特朗普补充称："我们 会给相关企业大约一年到一年半的时间来调整，之后他们将面临关税。如果他们必须将药品和其他相关产品进 口到国内，关税将高达200%。" 据了解，铜是电子产品和清洁能源供应链中的核心金属，被广泛应用于可充电电池、电线电缆、发电设备和新 能源汽车中。由于其在现代工业中具有不可替代的作用，铜已被美国列为"关键矿产"。今年2月，美国政府已 依据"232条款"对铜的进口发起调查，评估其是否对国家安全构成威胁。如今，关税政策的落地显然是这一调 查的直接延伸。 根据美国地质 ...