Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music (TME.US/1698.HK) with a target price of $18 or HKD 70, indicating a potential upside of 26% and 28% respectively from current prices [3][5][7]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 reached RMB 73.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, slightly above market expectations. The adjusted net profit was RMB 21.2 billion, exceeding market expectations by 5.1% [1][3]. - Online music service revenue grew by 16.1% year-on-year, driven by subscription and advertising revenue growth. The music subscription ARPPU reached RMB 11.4, surpassing expectations due to a reduction in discounts for regular members and strong performance from SVIP subscriptions [2][3]. - The report anticipates that ARPPU will become the main driver of music subscription revenue growth in the coming years, with projections of RMB 11.6 in Q2 2025 and RMB 12.1 by Q4 2025 [2]. Financial Projections - The report slightly raises revenue forecasts for FY25E and FY26E by 1% and 0% respectively, and adjusts the net profit forecasts upward by 3% and 1% [3]. - Financial metrics for FY25E include expected revenue of RMB 31.16 billion, operating profit of RMB 12.79 billion, and adjusted net profit of RMB 8.90 billion [4][10]. Market Performance - The current stock price for Tencent Music is $14.33, with a 52-week price range of $9.41 to $15.77, and a total market capitalization of $24.59 billion [5][6]. - The report indicates a strong market position for Tencent Music, supported by its leading industry status and growth in subscription services [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 earnings with revenue of 7.356 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, and adjusted net profit of 2.226 billion RMB, up 22.8% year-on-year, slightly exceeding consensus expectations [1][4]. - The growth in revenue and profit is attributed to a robust increase in paid user numbers and a rapid rise in ARPPU driven by the growth of SVIP (super members) [2][4]. - The company is expected to maintain its leading position in the industry, with strong integration capabilities and potential for profit margin expansion [1][4]. Summary by Sections Earnings Performance - In Q1 2025, online music revenue grew by 15.9% to 5.8 billion RMB, with subscription revenue increasing by 16.6% to 4.22 billion RMB. The number of online paid users rose by 8.3% to 122.9 million [2]. - The ARPPU increased by 0.3 RMB to 11.4 RMB, benefiting from the growth of SVIP members and more cautious promotional activities [2]. Profitability Metrics - The company's gross margin for Q1 2025 was 44.1%, up 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, supported by the continuous growth of paid users and a decrease in the revenue-sharing ratio for live streaming [3]. - The report maintains the assumption of profit margin improvement for the full year, with an expected gross margin of 45% for 2025 [3]. Financial Forecasts - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised to 8.881 billion RMB, 10.192 billion RMB, and 11.159 billion RMB, reflecting increases of 2%, 7%, and 4% respectively [4][11]. - The target price is set at 19.47 USD or 77.37 HKD, based on a 25x PE for 2025E [4][11].

交银国际研究 | | | 三个月 | 年初至 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘价 | 升跌% | 今升跌 | | 布兰特 | 66.64 | -10.80 | -10.65% | | 期金 | 3,240.30 | 12.37 | 23.24 | | 期银 | 32.98 | -0.38 | 14.10 | | 期铜 | 9,534.00 | -2.83 | 9.51 | | 日圆 | 146.32 | 3.99 | 7.41 | | 英镑 | 1.33 | 5.45 | 6.25 | | 欧元 | 1.12 | 6.71 | 8.29 | | 基点变动 | | 三个月 六个月 | | | 基点变动 | | 三个月 六个月 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | HIBOR | 4.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | 美国10年债息 yield | 4.53 | 1.19 | 2.03 | | 资料来源： FactSet | | | | | 恒指技术走势 | | | --- | --- | | 恒生指数 | 23,640.65 | | 50 天 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is experiencing mixed performance, with concerns about the sustainability of the recent rebound amid ongoing trade tensions and economic uncertainties [1][5][6]. Market Performance - On May 14, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 89.37 points, a decrease of 0.21%, closing at 42,051.06 points. The Nasdaq rose by 136.73 points, an increase of 0.72%, closing at 19,146.81 points, while the S&P 500 gained 6.03 points, up 0.10%, closing at 5,892.58 points [4]. - The Nasdaq has surged over 6% this week, with the Dow Jones increasing by 1% and the S&P 500 rising over 4%, marking a return to positive year-to-date performance [5]. Trade and Economic Outlook - Analysts express skepticism about the potential for further gains in the U.S. stock market due to ongoing trade negotiations and economic uncertainties [5][6]. - President Trump mentioned ongoing potential agreements with India, Japan, and South Korea, while the Federal Reserve has indicated rising economic uncertainty and is monitoring the impact of tariffs before deciding on future interest rate cuts [6]. Sector Performance - In the S&P 500, eight out of eleven sectors declined, with the healthcare and materials sectors leading the losses at 2.31% and 0.96%, respectively. Conversely, the communication services and technology sectors saw gains of 1.58% and 0.96% [8]. - Major tech stocks mostly rose, with notable increases for AMD (over 15%), NVIDIA (up 4.16%), and Tesla (over 4%) [8]. Chinese Concept Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by over 1%, with Tencent Music experiencing a significant increase of over 15% [2][10]. - Tencent Music's revenue for Q1 2025 was reported at 7.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, with adjusted net profit rising by 22.8% to 2.23 billion yuan [11]. - Tencent's overall revenue for the same period was 180.02 billion yuan, reflecting a 13% year-on-year growth, with gross profit increasing by 20% [12].

5月13日，腾讯音乐娱乐集团（以下简称"腾讯音乐"）发布其截至2025年3月31日止第一季度未经审计财 务业绩。 第一季度腾讯音乐业绩迎来高质量增长。财报显示，2025年第一季度，腾讯音乐总收入为73.6亿元，同 比增长8.7%；调整后净利润为22.3亿元，同比增长22.8%。 财报介绍，业绩增长主要得益于第一季度在线音乐服务收入同比增长15.9%至58.0亿元。 上海夏至良时咨询管理有限公司高级研究员、大消费行业分析师杨怀玉向《证券日报》记者表示："得 益于腾讯音乐丰富的内容储备，公司在激发用户音乐需求上拥有良好的施展基础。一方面，腾讯音乐市 场占比达到70%，这让其版权采购成本通过规模效应摊薄；其次，超级会员包含的额外服务，底层逻辑 是瞄准高净值人群以及粉丝群体。" 具体来看，腾讯音乐第一季度与唱片公司稳固合作，持续扩充经典曲库，同时凭借自制内容打造差异化 优势。例如，与索尼音乐娱乐续签多年合约、与英皇娱乐和滚石唱片续约，为曲库升级杜比全景声音 效。此外，尽管华语歌曲仍是音乐播放主流，但韩语、英语及日语歌曲也愈发受到用户欢迎。为满足用 户兴趣，腾讯音乐与韩国Starship娱乐、YG娱乐以及日本头部ACG ...

Group 1: Automotive Sector - Li Auto (09863) saw a rise of over 4%, with record order volume during the May Day holiday and recent share purchases by the chairman [1] - XPeng Motors (09868) increased by over 3%, becoming the first Chinese new energy vehicle company to participate in the Milan Design Week and officially entering the Italian market [1] - The rare earth sector surged, with Jinli Permanent Magnet (06680) rising over 5% due to export controls leading to increased overseas rare earth prices [1] Group 2: E-commerce and Health - JD Group (09618) rose over 4%, reporting Q1 revenue of 301.1 billion yuan, a 15.8% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 10.89 billion yuan, up 52.73% [2] - JD Health (06618) increased over 4%, with revenue of 16.645 billion yuan, a 25.5% year-on-year growth, and operating profit of 1.071 billion yuan, up 119.8% [2] Group 3: Music and Entertainment - Tencent Music (01698) rose over 12%, reporting total revenue of 7.36 billion yuan and adjusted net profit of 2.23 billion yuan, with online music service revenue growing by 15.9% [2] - NetEase Cloud Music (09899) increased over 11%, with analysts noting a positive growth phase in the online music industry due to improved competition and user willingness to pay [3] Group 4: Technology and AI - Baidu Group (09888) rose over 3%, planning to launch its Apollo Go autonomous taxi service in Switzerland and Turkey [3] - NuScale Power (SMR.US) reported quarterly sales of 13.4 million, significantly exceeding analyst expectations, leading to a rise of over 21% [6] Group 5: Shipping and Logistics - Shipping stocks collectively strengthened, with Pacific Shipping (02343) and Seaspan (01308) rising over 6%, and China Merchants Energy (02866) increasing over 12% [4]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley raised the target price for Tencent Music (TME.N) by 12.2% from $14.7 to $16.5, maintaining an "Overweight" rating [1] - The increase in target price is based on the consideration of Tencent Music's long-term strategic investments, applying a 30% discount to market value [1] - The strategic investments include a 2% stake in Spotify, a 2% stake in UMG, and a 0.8% stake in Warner Music Group, which collectively represent a value of $2 per American Depositary Share (ADS) [1] Group 2 - Tencent Music's associated company allocated UMG shares to Tencent Music in 2019, with the first quarter of 2025 being a trigger for this change [1]

今日关注 央视新闻：自5月14日12时01分起，我国调整对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税措施。其中，国务院关 税税则委员会2025年第4号公告规定的加征关税税率，由34%调整为10%，在90天内暂停实施24%的对 美加征关税税率；停止实施2025年第5号、第6号公告规定的加征关税措施。 宏观经济 1、央视新闻：就中美是否计划讨论美方以芬太尼为由对华征收的特别关税，外交部回应称，芬太尼是 美国的问题，不是中国的问题，责任在美国自身。美方无视中方的善意，对中国无理加征芬太尼关税， 这严重冲击中美在禁毒领域的对话与合作，也严重损害中方利益。美方如果真心想同中方合作，就应该 停止对华抹黑推责，以平等、尊重、互惠的方式同中方对话。 2、市场监管总局等五部门针对当前外卖行业竞争中存在的突出问题，约谈京东、美团、饿了么等平台 企业。要求相关平台企业合法规范经营，公平有序竞争，共同营造良好市场环境，切实维护消费者、平 台内经营者和外卖骑手的合法权益，促进平台经济规范健康有序发展。 3、中央网信办等四部门印发《2025年数字乡村发展工作要点》，部署9方面26项重点任务。《工作要 点》明确，到2025年底，全国行政村5G通达率超过 ...

腾讯音乐 20250513 摘要 • 腾讯音乐娱乐集团 2025 年第一季度收入达人民币 114 亿元，同比增长， 主要受益于音乐订阅和广告收入的强劲增长，以及艺人周边商品和线下演 出收入的贡献。净利润为人民币 44 亿元，同比增长显著。 • 音乐订阅收入增长强劲，2025 年第一季度达到人民币 42 亿元，同比增长 70%，环比增长 5%。公司通过加强与唱片公司的合作，丰富经典音乐库， 并推出高质量音效产品，有效提升了用户参与度和付费用户基数。 • 广告业务保持良好增长势头，通过多样化广告格式和创新广告支持模式， 提高了点击率和广告单价，吸引了更多广告主。赞助广告，如"QQ 音乐 超级盛典之夜"，加强了与广告主的合作，推动生态系统盈利。 • 艺人相关商品销售和线下演出收入增加，得益于肖战实体专辑的发货以及 与音乐行业合作举办的演唱会。公司战略重点已转移到核心音乐业务，社 交娱乐服务收入同比下降 12%至人民币 16 亿元。 • 公司保持严格财务纪律，有效控制促销支出，使 2025 年第一季度营业费 用占收入比例下降至 15.5%。有效税率降至 9.2%，主要由于视同处置收 益影响，确认视同处置联营公司收益 ...

Group 1: Company Updates - Zeekr has announced that no decision has been made regarding Geely's proposal [1] - Meitu's design studio achieved a growth rate of 42.53% in April, ranking third in domestic AI product growth [2] - Shunfa Electric indicated that its power transmission and distribution business line is expected to become a new growth engine for performance [3] - BeiGene reported a net loss of 94.5 million yuan in Q1 2025, a reduction from a loss of 1.908 billion yuan in the same period last year, with revenue of 8.048 billion yuan, up 50.2% year-on-year [4] - Huya's Q1 2025 revenue reached 1.51 billion yuan, with a non-GAAP net profit of 24 million yuan [6] - JD Health reported a Q1 2025 operating profit of 1.07 billion yuan, up 119.8% year-on-year, with revenue of 16.65 billion yuan, a 25.5% increase [7] - Tencent Music's Q1 2025 total revenue was 7.36 billion yuan, with online music service revenue growing by 15.9% [8] - JD Group's Q1 2025 revenue was 301.1 billion yuan, a 15.8% increase year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [9] Group 2: Investment and Financing - Aoyi Technology completed nearly 100 million yuan in B++ round financing, with funds aimed at accelerating R&D and market expansion [10] Group 3: New Products - Baidu launched a smart health companion device designed for the elderly, featuring health monitoring and emergency call functions [11]