证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 08 月 28 日 千味央厨（001215.SZ） Q2 经营略承压，期待餐饮及新零售渠道改善 消费品/食品饮料 公司发布 2025 年半年报，公司Q2 收入/利润分别同比-3.12%/-42.05%，Q2 受下游餐饮相对疲软、竞争加剧影响，业绩表现略有承压。公司积极发力新零 售渠道、电商渠道，展望 H2，烘焙类和菜肴类产品占比仍会上升，随着营收 增长规模效益增加，毛利率与盈利能力将有改善趋势，关注公司新渠道进展、 新品表现。考虑到今年对渠道费用投入上升，我们调整 25-27 年归母净利润预 测为 0.77 亿/0.92 亿/1.09 亿，25-27 年 EPS 为 0.80、0.95、1.12 元，对应 26 年 31x，维持"增持"评级。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 1901 | 1868 | 1923 | 2078 | 2247 | 增持（维持） 当前股价：29.2 元 基 ...

Group 1 - The company has successfully introduced a new apple variety, Red Snick, which has gained popularity and is cost-effective due to reduced cultivation expenses [1] - The apple demonstration garden in Tongchuan City showcases advanced agricultural technologies, including hail nets, drip irrigation, and voice bird deterrents, enhancing productivity and fruit quality [1] - The company plans to leverage e-commerce to expand its market reach, aiming to deliver fresh apples directly to consumers [1] Group 2 - In 2023, the planting area for early and mid-maturing apples in Tongchuan is approximately 103,000 acres, with an expected total output of 114,000 tons, including 43,000 tons from early varieties [2] - The local government supports the apple industry through policies that promote scale, standardization, and branding, allocating over 5 million yuan annually for high-quality fruit development initiatives [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company "Good Idea" is facing significant challenges in the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector, particularly in the e-commerce channel, which has led to declining revenues and profits, indicating a strategic misalignment in its operations [1][9]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue was 689 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.64%, with a net loss of 19.84 million yuan [1]. - E-commerce channel revenue dropped to 198 million yuan, accounting for 28.73% of total revenue, down 23.27% from the previous year [4][5]. - Cumulative losses from 2020 to 2024 reached approximately 313 million yuan, with continuous losses in net profit over five years totaling around 500 million yuan [11][12]. Group 2: E-commerce Challenges - The company has seen a significant reduction in online promotion expenses, with a 32.57% decrease in sales promotion costs, impacting product visibility and brand awareness on e-commerce platforms [7][8]. - The company struggles with intense competition in both shelf e-commerce and interest-based e-commerce, leading to low conversion rates and insufficient sales growth [6][9]. Group 3: Strategic Shift to Offline Channels - In response to declining e-commerce performance, the company has shifted focus to offline supermarket channels, with over 70% of revenue coming from this segment in the first half of 2025 [9][10]. - Collaborations with high-quality supermarkets have provided some revenue stability, but the associated costs and limited market reach pose significant challenges [10][11]. Group 4: Product and Operational Issues - Despite a slight improvement in gross margin due to a shift towards higher-margin products, the overall profitability remains insufficient to cover operational costs [12][13]. - The company needs to reassess its e-commerce strategy and optimize its offline channel operations to enhance product competitiveness and address market challenges effectively [13].

Group 1: NetEase Cloud Music - NetEase Cloud Music reported a revenue of 3.827 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, showing a slight year-on-year decline [1] - Operating profit reached 845 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.8% [1] - The introduction of new features such as "Little Light Bulb" and "DeepSeek" has led to increased user engagement and listening duration on the app [1] - The profit growth significantly outpaced revenue, indicating effective cost optimization and membership price increases [1] - Continued innovation and expansion into advertising and live streaming could enhance profitability in the second half of the year [1] Group 2: Walmart - Walmart announced an expansion of employee shopping discounts to 10% on nearly all grocery items, aimed at alleviating rising food costs for employees [2] - This benefit will be available year-round and is expected to improve employee recruitment and retention [2] - Approximately 1.6 million employees will be eligible for this benefit after 90 days of employment, excluding clearance items [2] - The upgrade in employee benefits is likely to reduce turnover rates and enhance operational efficiency during peak retail seasons [2] - Walmart has not disclosed the estimated costs of this expanded discount, which could impact food business profit margins if the scale is significant [2] Group 3: Ganyuan Foods - Ganyuan Foods indicated stable partnerships with major domestic channels and identified significant market potential for several products [3] - The company plans to actively communicate with various channels for new product collaborations while promoting innovative and cost-effective products [3] - E-commerce remains a crucial sales channel, with expectations for continued growth and penetration of new products [3] - The company aims to enhance online business development, increase influencer collaboration, and improve coverage in new media channels [3] - Successful product launches and controlled promotional expenses could lead to improved profitability [3]

Core Viewpoint - The mobile phone retail industry, especially in county towns, is facing significant challenges due to declining consumer demand, increased competition from e-commerce, and changing consumer behavior [4][15][18]. Group 1: Sales Trends - June sales for mobile phones have been particularly poor, with a noticeable decline in purchases following the high school entrance exams, a period that traditionally sees increased spending [4][5]. - The number of customers visiting mobile phone stores has decreased, leading to a shift in focus towards customer service and added value offerings [4][12]. - Sales during festive seasons, which used to be peak times, have not rebounded post-pandemic, with current sales lower than during the pandemic [9][10]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The mobile phone industry is experiencing a significant contraction, with many stores closing down and a lack of new entrants into the market [13][15]. - The shift towards online shopping has severely impacted traditional brick-and-mortar stores, with many consumers preferring to purchase from e-commerce platforms due to lower prices [18][19]. - The profitability of mobile phone sales has diminished, with many retailers now operating on razor-thin margins, often selling at or below cost to compete with online prices [18][20]. Group 3: Adaptation Strategies - Retailers are exploring various strategies to survive, including obtaining brand authorizations, leveraging social media for marketing, and diversifying into related products and services [22][24]. - Some stores are beginning to offer second-hand phone sales and repair services as a way to generate additional revenue streams [25][26]. - The establishment of new retail models, such as instant delivery services, has shown some promise in boosting sales, although profit margins remain low [24][26].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese health supplement industry is expected to experience long-term growth potential driven by increased consumer spending and the aging population, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.8%-8.8% from 2024 to 2035 [1] Group 1: Historical Review - The health supplement market in China began in the 1980s, characterized by a focus on creating blockbuster products and aggressive marketing, which led to potential risks in the industry [1] - The early 2000s saw rapid growth with the entry of international brands and the emergence of domestic brands, but safety incidents post-2013 led to increased regulatory scrutiny [1] - Since 2020, the industry has entered a new growth cycle driven by health trends and e-commerce, although competition has intensified [1] Group 2: Channels - The three main channels for health supplements in China are direct sales, pharmacies, and e-commerce, with e-commerce accounting for 56% of the market share in 2023 [2] - E-commerce is expected to continue being the primary growth driver, while the pharmacy channel stabilizes and direct sales may face downward pressure [2] - Douyin (TikTok) is projected to become the largest e-commerce channel for health supplements by August 2024, with growth rates surpassing traditional e-commerce [2] Group 3: Products - Health supplements can be categorized into mature markets and new consumer markets, with the former steadily expanding and the latter requiring faster product iteration and supply chain responsiveness [3] - The industry is witnessing two main trends: the foodification of products and the development of strong functional products, catering to both older and younger demographics [3] - There is a K-shaped price differentiation in health supplements, where high-functionality premium products are expected to see significant growth [3] Group 4: Industry Chain - The penetration rate of contract manufacturing in the domestic market exceeds 65%, with both brand owners and manufacturers demonstrating high profitability [4] - Brand owners face intense competition with low market concentration, as the top 10 e-commerce platforms hold only 16.7% market share, making e-commerce operational capability a key competitive advantage [4] - Contract manufacturers are achieving high profitability even with low fees, and leading firms are enhancing their product development, supply chain management, and customer service capabilities, leading to increased concentration in the industry [4]

Core Viewpoint - Junyao Health's stock has experienced a significant increase, with a cumulative rise of 33.23% over three consecutive trading days, despite the company's announcement that there have been no major changes in its main business operations [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 of this year, Junyao Health reported a revenue increase of 1.41% year-on-year, but net profit decreased by 58.29% [1][3]. - For the year 2024, the company’s revenue was 1.458 billion yuan, a decline of 10.8%, and it recorded a net loss of 29.12 million yuan, a decrease of 150.6% year-on-year [3]. - The traditional beverage business has shown weak performance, contributing to the overall revenue decline, while the probiotic business has demonstrated strong growth, accounting for 54.3% of total revenue in 2024 [3]. E-commerce Growth - Junyao Health has seen explosive growth in its e-commerce channels, with sales increasing by 177.49% in 2024 and a staggering 1173.33% in Q1 of 2025 [4]. - The company has optimized its product layout and focused on market demand, enhancing its competitiveness in online channels [4]. International Market Performance - In 2024, Junyao Health achieved approximately 84.6 million yuan in revenue from overseas markets, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.54%, with Q1 of 2025 showing a significant increase of 77.43% [4]. Future Growth Drivers - The company aims to strengthen its beverage core business, expand probiotic health products, and increase raw material exports, leveraging its proprietary strain resources and production capacity [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight increase in revenue for 2024, but a decline in net profit, indicating challenges in the white liquor industry due to economic pressures and high inventory levels [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 6.015 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.89%, while total profit decreased by 2.32% to 2.274 billion yuan, and net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 3.83% to 1.655 billion yuan [1][2]. - For Q1 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.81 billion yuan, a growth of 2.42%, with total profit at 812 million yuan, up 1.83%, and net profit at 610 million yuan, an increase of 3.59% [1]. Product Performance - High-end liquor generated revenue of 5.681 billion yuan in 2024, a slight increase of 0.06%, accounting for 96.68% of total liquor revenue, with a gross margin of 75.65%, down 0.22 percentage points [4]. Market Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its market presence in both domestic and provincial markets, with different strategies for each. In the domestic market, it aims to deepen its penetration in county and town markets, while in provincial markets, it is optimizing resource allocation and expanding marketing efforts [5]. - The company plans to establish an operations center in Shanghai to accelerate its provincial market expansion and increase market share [5]. Inventory and Production - The company reported a significant increase in inventory levels, with a total of 8,145.5 thousand liters, reflecting a growth of 27.36%, which is higher than the production and sales growth rates [5]. - The company’s production capacity for 2024 is designed at 80,000 kiloliters, with actual production at 3,950 kiloliters [5]. Cash Flow and Dividends - The operating cash flow for the company reached 1.459 billion yuan, showing a substantial increase of 60.24% [2]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 13 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 778 million yuan [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company [1][8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 28.676 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.013 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.5% [1][3] - The board proposed a final dividend of 20.73 cents per share, with a payout ratio of 50% for the year [1] - The overall retail sales remained stable, with online channels showing low double-digit growth while offline channels experienced a slight decline [3][4] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In 2024, revenue from footwear, apparel, accessories, and equipment was 14.3 billion, 12.05 billion, 2.325 billion, and a year-on-year growth of 6.8%, -2.9%, and 29.3% respectively [4] - The retail sales for running, fitness, basketball, and sports lifestyle categories accounted for 28%, 15%, 21%, and 33% of total sales, with year-on-year growth rates of 25%, 6%, -21%, and -6% respectively [4] - The company’s gross margin improved to 49.4%, up 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to better margins in the e-commerce channel [5][7] Channel Performance - Direct sales revenue decreased by 0.3% to 6.883 billion yuan, with the number of direct stores declining by 13.4% to 1,297 [5] - Wholesale revenue increased by 2.6% to 12.957 billion yuan, with wholesale stores growing by 1.6% to 4,820 [5] - E-commerce revenue grew by 10.3% to 8.305 billion yuan, with significant improvements in customer traffic and conversion rates [5][8] Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue optimizing its channel structure and enhancing customer experience, which will support steady business growth [8] - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 29.093 billion, 30.177 billion, and 31.517 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.5%, 3.7%, and 4.4% respectively [8][10]