证券研究报告 工业/基础材料 从顺周期到逆周期，配置内需投资链 上周高层北京调研和国常会，均提出促进或持续推动"房地产市场平稳健康 发展"，市场对增量政策期待较高，我们相对推荐估值处于低位、经营业绩 有望稳健增长的石膏板龙头和板材龙头。二手房成交持续高景气，推荐涂料 和管材。3 月基建投资环比继续改善，外需扰动下有望继续发力，短期重点 推荐水利管网机会。光伏玻璃、玻纤等顺周期品种复价后，短期供给有所增 加。我们短期继续推荐内需逆周期及供给端约束较强的品种，重点推荐四川 路桥、中材国际、中国交建、中国核建、三联虹普、海螺水泥、华新水泥 H、 北新建材、兔宝宝、三棵树。 上周细分行业回顾 截至 4.17，上周全国水泥价格周环比-0.9%；水泥出货率 48.7%，周环比/ 同比+0.4%/-1.7pct；上周国内浮法玻璃均价 71 元/重量箱，周环比/同比 +0.7%/-23.3%，重点样本企业库存 5624 万重箱，周环比基本持平，年同比 +3.8%，库存天数约 28.93 天，环比增加 0.01 天。截至 4.17，3.2mm/2.0mm 光伏玻璃主流订单价格 22.3/14.3 元/平米，周环比基本持平，行业 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 联合研究丨公司点评丨中国建筑（601668.SH） [Table_Title] 需求整体承压，分红率大幅提升 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司全年实现营业收入 21871.48 亿元，同比减少 3.5%；归属净利润 461.87 亿元，同比减少 14.9%；扣非后归属净利润 415.81 亿元，同比减少 14.3%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 张弛 刘义 宋子逸 张智杰 袁志芃 SAC：S0490520080022 SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490522080002 SAC：S0490522060005 SFC：BUT917 SFC：BUV416 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 中国建筑（601668.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 需求整体承压，分红率大幅提升 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 公司全年实现营业收入 21871.48 亿元，同比减少 3.5%；归属净利润 461.87 亿元，同比减少 14.9%；扣非后归属净利润 ...

回购增持已成为上市公司市值管理的重要举措，在市场波动时期，回购增持能够提供增量资金，有效应 对短期冲击，稳定投资者信心。近期，上市公司密集发布回购增持公告，积极运用回购增持贷款，维护 资本市场稳定。 回购增持贷上限总额超千亿元 自去年10月18日《关于设立股票回购增持再贷款有关事宜的通知》发布以来，上市公司和主要股东积极 响应。据证券时报·数据宝统计，截至4月17日，上市公司使用回购增持贷款金额上限达到1021.38亿元， 其中回购贷合计617.17亿元，增持贷合计404.21亿元，共482家上市公司参与，14家公司贷款金额上限超 过10亿元。 取得回购贷的上市公司中，牧原股份金额最高，达到25亿元，海尔智家、海康威视、中国中铁、温氏股 份紧随其后，分别为18亿元、17.5亿元、16亿元、10亿元。牧原股份公告显示，中信银行为公司提供回 购贷款资金专项用于公司股份回购，贷款总额25亿元，期限为3年。截至最新，牧原股份已累计回购公 司股份3124.7万股，成交总额12.5亿元。 取得大额增持贷的上市公司数量更多，东方盛虹增持股份贷款金额上限达到28亿元，荣盛石化、赛轮轮 胎、中国巨石等6家公司贷款金额上限均超1 ...

A股中字头午后走强，中铝国际拉升涨停，中船应急冲高近5%，中国船舶、久之洋等中船系个股表现 活跃。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Insights - In March, narrow infrastructure investment reached 1.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3 percentage points. Broad infrastructure investment was 2.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, with a month-on-month increase of 1.0 percentage points. For the first three months, narrow infrastructure investment totaled 3.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, and broad infrastructure investment was 4.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.3% [2][8] Summary by Sections Investment Performance - In March, narrow infrastructure investment increased, with notable growth in transportation, storage, and postal services, which accounted for 0.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%. Water conservancy, environment, and public facilities management saw an investment of 1.0 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.7% [14] Broad Infrastructure Insights - Broad infrastructure investment in March was 2.6 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.7%. The electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector contributed 0.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.4% [14] Physical Workload Analysis - Cement production in the first three months saw a year-on-year decline of 1.4%, but March showed a recovery with a 2.3% increase. Excavator sales increased by 28.5% year-on-year, indicating strong demand in water conservancy projects [14] Debt Issuance and Future Outlook - Special bond issuance accelerated compared to the previous year, with a total of 1.0183 trillion yuan issued by April 12, 2023. The government plans to issue 4.4 trillion yuan in special bonds for infrastructure investment, which is expected to support steady growth in infrastructure investment throughout the year [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction and engineering sector, as well as for building materials [6]. Core Insights - Traditional infrastructure investment is expected to show stable growth, while emerging industries and strategic regional investments are anticipated to have high elasticity [1][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of urban renewal as a key area for improving living standards and highlights the robust demand for investment in emerging industries [1][3]. - The report identifies that the economic provinces are expected to play a significant role in driving investment, with regions like Xinjiang, Tibet, and Hainan showing considerable investment elasticity [4][10]. Summary by Sections Overview of Infrastructure Investment - Traditional infrastructure investment is projected to improve slightly, with energy sectors like nuclear power, wind power, and power grids experiencing high demand [1][3]. - Urban renewal projects are highlighted as critical for addressing social needs, with a focus on upgrading old urban areas and improving public housing [3]. Regional Investment Dynamics - Economic provinces are expected to lead investment efforts, with strong fiscal capabilities observed in regions like Zhejiang [4][10]. - High-risk areas are showing signs of recovery, with investment plans for 2025 indicating a positive trend after two years of risk management [4][10]. Sector-Specific Insights - The construction sector is expected to maintain a stable demand, with leading state-owned enterprises and quality local state-owned enterprises likely to benefit from valuation recovery [5]. - The report identifies two main investment directions: the dividend value of leading construction companies and the growth opportunities driven by industrial services in data centers and cleanroom engineering [5]. Energy and Transportation Investment - Energy construction is expected to see high growth in nuclear power and wind power, while solar energy installations may decline [3][48]. - Transportation infrastructure, particularly railways, is projected to remain robust, while road investments are under pressure due to policy constraints [32][42].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction and building materials sectors [9]. Core Insights - The low-altitude and data infrastructure sectors continue to show high prosperity, with January building materials and home furnishings sales increasing year-on-year [12][20]. - The construction activity post-Spring Festival is recovering slowly due to various factors, including local investment directions and weather conditions, necessitating close monitoring of cement and steel shipments [12][13]. - The building materials home furnishings index (BHI) for January was 110.35, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.53 points and a year-on-year increase of 8.46 points [20]. - The report emphasizes the positive effects of the "old-for-new" policy on sales, with January sales reaching 1095.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.09% [20]. - Short-term recommendations focus on domestic cyclical demand and supply-constrained varieties, highlighting companies such as Shenzhen Urban Transport, Tunnel Co., China Nuclear Engineering, and others [12][20]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report notes that the low-altitude economy and data infrastructure policies are being actively promoted, with significant investment expected in underground pipelines and existing infrastructure upgrades [12][13]. - The construction material sales recovery is expected to be gradual, influenced by local government investment shifts towards technology and consumption [13][20]. Market Dynamics - As of February 14, the national cement shipment rate was 11.5%, with a week-on-week increase of 5.9 percentage points [12]. - The average price of float glass was 75 yuan per weight box, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.8% but a year-on-year decrease of 30.6% [2][32]. - The report highlights a significant increase in inventory levels for float glass, with a total of 55.27 million weight boxes, a week-on-week increase of 3.9% [2][34]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Shenzhen Urban Transport (301091 CH), Tunnel Co. (600820 CH), and China Nuclear Engineering (601611 CH), among others, with target prices and buy ratings [10][20]. - The report also identifies companies with strong performance in the past week, such as Lifan Technology and Hainan Huatie, which saw significant stock price increases [10][11]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the construction and building materials sectors will benefit from improved domestic investment demand in 2025, with a focus on large construction and cement as foundational investments [12][20]. - The potential for growth in the fiberglass and consumer building materials sectors is highlighted, with expectations for continued demand recovery in the coming years [12][20].