Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the mixed performance of various sectors in May, indicating a gradual recovery in certain areas while others continue to face challenges, particularly in real estate and industrial production. Group 1: Power Generation and Industrial Activity - The cumulative power generation from coal-fired power plants increased by 1.9% year-on-year as of May 22, marking the first positive reading of the year [1][7] - Industrial sector operating rates showed mixed results, with steel and coking industries underperforming compared to April, while the textile and apparel sectors improved significantly [8][9] - As of the fourth week of May, the operating rate of high furnaces increased by 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, while coking enterprises saw a 1.6 percentage point increase [8][9] Group 2: Construction and Infrastructure - The construction funding availability rate remained stable compared to the end of April, with a slight increase of 0.07 percentage points to 58.9% as of May 27 [10][11] - The cement shipment rate recorded 40.5%, reflecting a 0.2 percentage point decline year-on-year [10][11] - The oil asphalt operating rate decreased to 27.7% by May 28, down from 34.4% and 30.8% in the previous weeks [10][11] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Sales - The average daily subway ridership in ten major cities increased by 0.8% year-on-year to 61.51 million, although it showed a decline from the previous month [12] - Real estate sales in May showed a reduced decline compared to April, with a 4.1% year-on-year drop in the average daily transaction area across 30 major cities [14][15] - Retail sales of passenger cars maintained a relatively strong state, with a year-on-year increase of 16% from May 1 to 25 [15] Group 4: Appliance Sales and Export Activity - Retail sales of major home appliances remained high, with air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines showing significant year-on-year growth rates of 66.1%, 75.2%, and 85.2% respectively during the week of May 19-25 [16][17] - Container throughput showed a slight slowdown, with a year-on-year increase of 5.0% from May 5 to 25, down from 7.3% in April [18] - The number of container ships sent to the U.S. saw a year-on-year decline of 17.2% as of May 31, indicating a potential shift in export dynamics [18][19]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ★☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market for steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, and other products is weak, with pessimistic market expectations and insufficient rebound momentum. The market rhythm is still volatile, and attention should be paid to changes in terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [2][3]. - The supply and demand of iron ore have certain marginal weakening pressures, and the external trade uncertainty is still high. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate [3]. - The prices of coke and coking coal continue to decline, and there is a need to observe the sustainability of further negative feedback. The price of coking coal still has a downward driving force [4][5]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have reached new lows for the year, and their prices remain weak [7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel market is weak, with the rebar surface demand slightly increasing, production decreasing, and inventory continuing to decline. The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils have both increased significantly, and the inventory has continued to decline. The demand shows certain resilience in the off-season, but its sustainability remains to be observed. The iron water production has continued to decline but remains at a relatively high level, and the negative feedback expectation continues to ferment. The market expectation is still pessimistic, and the rebound momentum of the market is insufficient [2]. Iron Ore - The iron ore market is in a weak and volatile state. The global shipment is fluctuating normally, and the domestic arrival volume is currently weak but is expected to rebound in the future. The port inventory has continued to decline. The terminal demand has entered the off-season, and the iron water production has gradually declined from its high level. It is expected that the short-term production reduction space for iron water is relatively limited, and steel mills have no motivation to actively replenish inventory. The iron ore supply and demand face certain marginal weakening pressures, and the external trade uncertainty is still high. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate [3]. Coke - The coke price continues to decline. The iron water production has continued to fall, and the second round of price cuts for coking has been fully implemented. The daily coke production remains at a relatively high level for the year, and the overall inventory has slightly increased. The coke price support may decline due to the downward shift in costs caused by the reduction in coking coal prices [4]. Coking Coal - The coking coal price continues to decline. The production of coking coal mines remains at a relatively high level, with some mines reducing production. The number of shut-down mines has decreased by 1 to 17. The spot auction market has weakened significantly, and the transaction price has continued to decline. The terminal inventory has continued to decline slightly, while the total coking coal inventory has increased slightly month-on-month, and the inventory pressure at the production end has continued to accumulate rapidly. The trading of imported Mongolian coal has continued to weaken. The coking coal price still has a downward driving force [5]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price has reached a new low for the year. The iron water production has continued to decline slightly, and the export demand remains at around 30,000 tons, with a relatively small marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has remained basically flat, and the demand has remained stable at a high level. The ferrosilicon supply has continued to decline, the market transaction level is average, and the on-balance-sheet inventory has slightly decreased. The price remains weak [8]. Ferromanganese - The ferromanganese price has reached a new low for the year. Due to the previous continuous production reduction, the inventory has decreased, and the fundamentals have slightly improved. The manganese ore inventory at Tianjin Port has slightly decreased, but the long-term inventory accumulation trend has not changed. The iron water production has continued to decline slightly, and the ferromanganese supply has slightly increased. The manganese ore inventory has started to accumulate, and the market expectation has changed. The price remains weak [7].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 5 月 29 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 偏空氛围主导，焦煤继续走低 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 成本端拖累，焦炭弱势运行 | 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：5 月 28 日夜盘，焦煤主力合约再创新低，夜盘报收于 765.0 元/吨，录得 3.23%的跌 幅。现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 950.0 元/吨，周环比下跌 20 元/吨，折合期 货仓单成本约 922 元/吨。供需方面，截至 5 月 23 日当周，供应端全国 523 家炼焦煤矿精煤日 均产量 78.6 万吨，环比下降 3.1 万吨，较去年同期偏高 2.9 万吨， ...

Core Viewpoint - The controlling shareholder, China Pingmei Shenma Group, intends to change its commitment regarding the resolution of competition with its subsidiaries, aiming to protect the interests of the company and its shareholders, especially minority shareholders [1][4]. Summary by Sections Commitment Overview - The original commitment involved transferring the entire equity or related assets of several subsidiaries, including Shoushan Chemical, Jingbao Chemical, and others, to the listed company within specified timeframes after the completion of certain projects [1][2]. - The commitment included a timeline of 36 months post-project completion for the transfer of assets, with provisions for third-party transfers if regulatory approvals were not obtained [1][2][3]. Current Status of Competing Assets - The subsidiary, Rufen Technology, has not yet completed its construction and production licensing, delaying the asset transfer timeline [3][4]. - Summer Mine and Liangbei No. 2 Mine have recently obtained production licenses, with asset transfer commitments due by May 29, 2026, and June 27, 2027, respectively [4][6]. - The profitability of the subsidiary, Ruiping Coal Power, has significantly declined, with a projected net profit drop in 2024 compared to 2021, complicating the asset acquisition process [4][8]. Specific Changes to Commitments - The new commitment proposes to entrust the relevant equity to the listed company and close the mines within 12 months after resource depletion, rather than direct asset transfers [5][9]. - The commitment aims to avoid high investment risks associated with acquiring non-quality assets, thereby protecting the interests of the listed company and its investors [5][9]. Reasons for Commitment Changes - The decline in coal market conditions and the poor economic performance of Ruiping Coal Power and Pingyu Coal Power necessitated a reassessment of the original commitments [6][8]. - The remaining recoverable reserves of the Ruiping Coal Power mines are insufficient, and the historical burdens of these assets pose significant risks to the company [8][9]. Impact on the Company - The changes in commitments are expected to facilitate the company's stable development and protect the interests of minority shareholders [9][10]. - The company will enter into a management agreement with the controlling shareholder to address the competition issue, ensuring that the management of the entrusted assets does not adversely affect the company's financial status or operational independence [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment is accelerating the revision of emission standards to implement the decisions of the central government and enhance pollution control efforts [1] Group 1: Emission Standards Revision - The Ministry has conducted a comprehensive review of 180 pollutant emission standards and has developed a work plan to revise 90 of these standards [1] - The Ministry is focusing on key areas and has collaborated with seven departments to issue a plan aimed at upgrading equipment and promoting the replacement of old consumer goods, with 12 key standards prioritized for 2024-2025, of which 7 have already been published [1] Group 2: Pollution Control Enhancements - The Ministry has completed revisions of water pollution discharge standards for industries such as pesticides, starch, yeast, and citric acid, and has upgraded air pollutant discharge standards for industries including coking, coal mining, petrochemicals, and chemicals [1] - The Ministry has also improved pollution control standards for municipal solid waste landfills [1]

Core Viewpoint - Five listed companies have recently exposed environmental risks, highlighting the increasing importance of environmental responsibility in corporate operations [11][12][14]. Group 1: Environmental Violations and Penalties - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company was fined 550,000 yuan for discharging untreated mine water into a scenic area [16]. - China Coal Energy Company was penalized 240,000 yuan for exceeding sulfur dioxide emissions [18]. - Guangxi Construction Group, a subsidiary of Greenland Holdings, was fined 100,000 yuan for failing to operate electronic transfer slips during construction waste disposal [17]. Group 2: Impact on Investors - The five companies involved have a total of 680,400 shareholders, indicating potential investment risks due to their environmental violations [15]. - The increasing focus on ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) principles among investors emphasizes the need for companies to demonstrate sustainable development capabilities [18]. Group 3: Regulatory Framework and Transparency - The environmental information disclosure has improved due to regulatory developments, ensuring public access to environmental data [19]. - The establishment of laws and regulations supports the public's right to obtain environmental information and participate in environmental protection [19].

Group 1 - Shanxi Province has achieved a continuous annual reduction of PM2.5 average concentration by 1 microgram over the past four years, with a current average concentration of 36 micrograms per cubic meter and a year-on-year decrease of 22.4% in the first four months of this year [1] - The province's industrial emissions are dominated by coal power, steel, coking, and cement industries, which account for over 70% of total emissions, with ongoing efforts to implement ultra-low emissions transformations in these sectors [1] - Focus areas for air quality improvement include the Taiyuan Basin and Fenhe Valley, with targeted strategies for cities with poor air quality and a commitment to regular inspections and enforcement of pollution control measures [1] Group 2 - Shanxi is advancing clean transportation initiatives, including the replacement of older diesel trucks and the promotion of new energy vehicles in key industries such as steel, thermal power, coking, coal, and building materials [2] - The province aims to enhance governance efficiency by establishing a closed-loop management system for pollution control, utilizing advanced monitoring technologies such as online monitoring, component monitoring, and drone inspections [2]

Group 1 - The transformation of Linfen from a resource-dependent economy to a digital economy is driven by the need to adapt to resource constraints and environmental challenges [1][2] - Linfen has embraced digital transformation in its industrial sector, implementing technologies such as automated steelmaking and coking processes, resulting in a 40% increase in labor productivity in the coking industry since 2019 [2][3] - The city is leveraging its rich cultural resources to develop a micro-short film industry, collaborating with leading video platforms and enhancing service offerings to attract production companies [3][4] Group 2 - Linfen has established over 32 intelligent coal mines and achieved an 80% automation rate in key processes within the steel industry, indicating significant advancements in industrial digitalization [2][3] - The local government is focused on creating a supportive ecosystem for the micro-short film industry, providing comprehensive services to production teams, which enhances operational efficiency and attracts more businesses [3][4] - The broader digital economy in Shanxi province is gaining momentum, with over 110,000 5G base stations established and a strong position in national computing power indices, indicating a robust digital infrastructure [3]

Core Viewpoint - The ecological restoration and protection of the Fen River in Shanxi Province have significantly improved water quality and biodiversity, leading to economic development and tourism growth in the region [3][5][12]. Group 1: Ecological Restoration Efforts - The Fen River has undergone extensive ecological protection and restoration efforts, including the closure of polluting enterprises and the implementation of various environmental projects [4][5]. - Since 1988, Shanxi has invested 230 million yuan in geological environment remediation, resulting in an increase in forest coverage from 23.9% to 45.4% [4]. - The "One Clear Water into the Yellow River" project aims to implement 285 ecological protection projects with an investment of nearly 100 billion yuan over three years [5][8]. Group 2: Water Quality Improvement - The water quality of the Fen River has shown continuous improvement, with the goal of achieving Class III water quality at the river's mouth by 2024 [8]. - Specific projects, such as the Taiyu Drainage Canal water quality enhancement, are underway to ensure that water quality meets standards by mid-2024 [6][7]. Group 3: Economic Development and Industry Transformation - The Fen River basin is home to significant energy bases, with a shift towards green and low-carbon industries, including the transformation of the coking industry into a green chemical cluster [9][10]. - The restructuring of the coking industry has led to a 13.7% increase in the added value of strategic emerging industries in Linfen City, surpassing the overall industrial growth rate [10]. - New energy industries, such as hydrogen and methanol, are being developed, with Linfen City aiming to establish a hydrogen energy industry worth 100 billion yuan [10]. Group 4: Cultural and Ecotourism Development - The Fen River area has seen the development of cultural and ecotourism projects, enhancing the region's historical and cultural significance while promoting ecological tourism [12][13]. - The establishment of the Jishan Fen River National Wetland Park showcases the integration of agricultural and wetland cultures, attracting visitors and promoting environmental awareness [13].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: Not clearly stated, represented by "ななな" [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Iron ore: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Coke: Not clearly stated, represented by "ななな" [1] - Coking coal: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Silicomanganese: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Viewpoints - The short - term rebound of the steel, iron ore, and other futures markets is supported by factors such as the marginal improvement of weekly data and the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, but the pessimistic demand expectations limit the upside space. For most varieties, it is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures market fluctuated narrowly. This week, the apparent demand for thread steel rebounded significantly, production was relatively stable, and inventory resumed a downward trend. The demand for hot - rolled coil also recovered, production declined, and inventory resumed a downward trend. Iron ore production is at a high level, and the supply pressure is still large. As the off - season of demand approaches, the terminal's carrying capacity needs to be observed. Domestic demand in downstream industries is still weak, manufacturing prosperity has declined, and real estate sales recovery is fluctuating [1] Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures market fluctuated. On the supply side, the global shipment of iron ore fluctuated normally, with no obvious increase for the time being. The domestic arrival volume decreased, and the national port inventory decreased. On the demand side, terminal demand rebounded, but there is still seasonal weakening pressure in the future. With a high profit rate of steel mills, iron ore production can still maintain a high level for the time being. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the pressure of the decline of iron ore production in the medium term [2] Coke - The price of coke fluctuated weakly. It is expected to be reduced in price this Thursday, and daily production has increased slightly. The overall inventory of coke has not been effectively reduced and remains at a high level, and traders have no purchasing enthusiasm. The supply of carbon elements is still abundant, and the downstream iron ore production remains stable at a high level. Steel billet export orders are good. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Coking Coal - The price of coking coal fluctuated weakly. Production has gradually climbed to a relatively high level this year. The activity of the spot auction market is low, the transaction price has loosened slightly, and the terminal inventory is still high. The total inventory of coking coal is basically flat, the production - end inventory pressure remains high, and downstream coking plants and steel mills maintain just - in - time procurement. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [5] Silicomanganese - The price of silicomanganese fluctuated narrowly. The national manganese ore port inventory has been continuously rising, with a cumulative increase of more than 300,000 tons last week. It is estimated that about 50,000 tons of South32 Australian ore will arrive at the port by the end of this month. Iron ore production remains stable at a high level, the supply of silicomanganese continues to decline, and the overall inventory level has increased significantly, which continues to suppress the price. It is recommended to wait and see and pay continuous attention to tariff trends [6] Ferrosilicon - The price of ferrosilicon fluctuated narrowly. Iron ore production remains stable at a high level. Export demand generally shows a downward trend month - on - month, but the marginal impact is small. The production of magnesium metal is basically flat and remains stable at a relatively high level, and the overall demand is acceptable. The supply of ferrosilicon has rebounded slightly, the market transaction level is average, and the on - balance - sheet inventory has continuously increased. It is recommended to wait and see and pay continuous attention to tariff trends [7]