Valuation Summary - The overall PE of the A-share market is 19.8 times, at the historical 79th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the Shanghai 50 Index is 11.4 times, at the historical 59th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the ChiNext Index is 33.9 times, at the historical 18th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index is 139.8 times, at the historical 99th percentile [2][5] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Steel, Power Equipment (Photovoltaic Equipment), National Defense, and Aviation [2][6] - The Passenger Vehicle industry has a PB valuation above the historical 85th percentile [2][6] - The Shipping and Port industry has both PE and PB valuations below the historical 15th percentile [2][6] Industry Midstream Prosperity Tracking New Energy - The price of polysilicon futures has risen by 8.2% to above 45,000 yuan, indicating a recovery in the market [2] - Battery cell prices increased by 7.7%, while prices for silicon wafers remained stable [2] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar increased by 1.0%, while iron ore prices rose by 3.2% [2] - The national sales area of commercial housing decreased by 3.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [3] Consumption - The average price of live pigs decreased by 3.6%, while the wholesale price of pork increased by 0.3% [3] - Retail sales grew by 5.0% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with June's growth down to 4.8% [3] Midstream Manufacturing - Manufacturing investment grew by 7.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, while narrow infrastructure investment grew by 4.6% [3] - The production of industrial robots increased by 35.6% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [3] Technology TMT - The production of integrated circuits increased by 8.7% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [3] Cyclicals - The price of Brent crude oil futures fell by 2.0% to $69.23 per barrel [3] - The Baltic Dry Index rose by 23.4%, reaching its highest level since September 2024 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co., Ltd. is declining significantly due to the deep adjustment in the liquor industry, with a projected net profit drop of 53.85% to 63.32% for the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year [1][2]. Financial Performance - The expected net profit for the first half of 2025 is between 155 million to 195 million yuan, down from 423.57 million yuan in the same period last year [1][2]. - Basic earnings per share are expected to decrease from 0.5697 yuan to below 0.2629 yuan, a decline of approximately 54% [1][2]. - In 2023, the company reported net losses of 673 million yuan and 296 million yuan in 2022, indicating a trend of financial struggles [3]. Business Segments - The liquor segment contributes nearly 80% of the company's revenue, primarily through its "Niulanshan" and "Ningcheng" brands [2][3]. - The liquor sales model relies heavily on distribution partnerships, with a focus on both local and regional markets [3]. Market Trends - The light bottle liquor market is experiencing rapid growth, with its market size projected to increase from 352 billion yuan in 2013 to 1500 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 13.8% [5]. - The price range of 50-100 yuan is identified as a key growth driver, with expectations for the market to exceed 2000 billion yuan by 2025 [5]. Competitive Landscape - The entry of numerous brands into the light bottle liquor segment is intensifying competition, posing challenges for Shunxin Agriculture [7]. - Major liquor companies are increasingly focusing on high-quality light bottle products to capture market share, which may further pressure Shunxin's performance [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent call for "anti-involution" by the Central Financial Commission has positively impacted sectors such as cement and photovoltaic, leading to a surge in related stocks [1] Group 1: Sector Analysis - The "anti-involution" initiative is expected to have lasting benefits for the A-share market, particularly in the construction materials, photovoltaic, pork, and chemical sectors [1] - The article highlights potential opportunities in the Beijing Stock Exchange for companies within these sectors [1]

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices opened higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.09% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 0.02%. Key sectors such as precious metals, rare earth permanent magnets, and securities showed significant gains [1]. Institutional Insights - According to Caixin Securities, there is an expectation for a "de-involution" market trend, with no significant macro risks anticipated before August. The market is entering a new bullish phase, supported by improved investor sentiment and increased capital inflow. Although there are strong resistance levels, a predominantly strong oscillating market is expected, with an increase in investment tolerance. As long as the broad market indices do not show significant breakdowns, maintaining a high equity market position is advisable. The implementation of "de-involution" policies could alleviate the "increased income without increased profit" dilemma, potentially leading the indices into a new upward phase [2]. - Huazhong Securities remains optimistic about the trend in banking and insurance sectors, noting that while overseas tariff risks may increase, A-shares are gradually becoming desensitized. The upcoming second-quarter economic data is expected to be weaker than the first quarter but may exceed market expectations. The market is likely to experience increased volatility, with a focus on the banking sector's high dividend yield and the potential for significant valuation recovery in the real estate sector. Sectors with strong support include rare earth permanent magnets, precious metals, engineering machinery, motorcycles, and agricultural chemicals [3]. Investment Recommendations - Investment suggestions include focusing on sectors related to "de-involution" such as photovoltaics, lithium batteries, automobiles, steel, building materials, coal, and pork. Additionally, stablecoin-related sectors like fintech and brokerage, as well as non-ferrous sectors such as rare earths and precious metals (especially silver), are recommended. Companies with mid-year earnings forecasts likely to exceed expectations include those in overseas computing power, wind power, shipping, innovative pharmaceuticals, new consumption, and military industries [2].

Valuation Summary - The overall PE of the CSI A-shares is 19.7 times, positioned at the historical 78th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the Shanghai 50 Index is 11.4 times, at the historical 59th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the CSI 500 Index is 29.5 times, at the historical 51st percentile [2][5] - The PE of the ChiNext Index is 33.1 times, at the historical 16th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the CSI 1000 Index is 39.7 times, at the historical 55th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the National CSI 2000 Index is 52.1 times, at the historical 69th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the Sci-Tech 50 Index is 137.8 times, at the historical 98th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the North Exchange 50 Index is 67.5 times, at the historical 94th percentile [2][5] - The ChiNext Index PE relative to the CSI 300 is 2.5 times, at the historical 7th percentile [2][5] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Steel, Electric Equipment (Photovoltaic Equipment), National Defense and Military Industry, Aviation and Airports, Light Industry Manufacturing, Chemical Pharmaceuticals, and Computer (IT Services, Software Development) [2][6] - The Passenger Vehicle industry has a PB valuation above the historical 85th percentile [2][6] - No industries have both PE and PB valuations below the historical 15th percentile [2][6] Industry Midstream Prosperity Tracking New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, upstream prices continue to rebound due to expectations of "anti-involution" policies, with polysilicon futures prices rising by 15.5% and spot prices by 17.1% [2][3] - In the battery sector, cobalt and nickel prices decreased by 1.7% and 1.0% respectively, while lithium carbonate prices increased by 3.1% [2][3] - In June 2025, the retail sales of narrow passenger vehicles in China increased by 18.1% year-on-year, with new energy vehicles seeing a 29.7% increase [2][3] Real Estate Chain - The spot price of rebar increased by 1.7%, while iron ore prices rose by 2.8% [2][3] - The national cement price index decreased by 1.6% due to slow inventory digestion [2][3] - Glass prices saw a slight increase, with spot prices up by 0.5% [2][3] Consumption - The average price of live pigs decreased by 3.5%, while wholesale pork prices increased by 0.1% [2][3] - The wholesale price index for liquor increased slightly by 0.04% [2][3] - Corn prices fell by 0.7%, while wheat prices decreased by 0.2% [2][3] Technology TMT - China's semiconductor sales increased by 13.0% year-on-year in May 2025, although the growth rate slowed compared to April [2][3] Cyclicals - Brent crude oil futures prices rose by 3.1% to $70.63 per barrel, driven by summer travel and power generation demand [2][3] - The price of thermal coal increased by 1.4% due to rising consumption during the summer peak [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a mixed performance with the three major indices showing slight gains, indicating a potential for short-term fluctuations and a focus on performance certainty as the market approaches the half-year report period [1][5]. Market Performance - As of July 10, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.21%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.18%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.19% [1]. - The multi-financial sector continues to strengthen, with notable performances from various stocks, including a nearly 50% increase in Delin Holdings and over 10% rise in Changxin Bochuang [1]. Sector Highlights - The rare earth permanent magnet sector is showing strong performance, with North Rare Earth rising over 5% and projected net profits for the first half of 2025 expected to increase by 5538.33% to 5922.76% year-on-year [2]. - The power sector is also performing well, with Jingyuntong hitting the daily limit [1]. Institutional Insights - Dongguan Securities suggests that positive short-term sentiment may continue, driven by the current economic observation period and upcoming important meetings [3]. - Longcheng Securities notes a structural differentiation in the market, with a dual-driven pattern emerging from "technology + cycle" sectors, indicating a rotation in investment focus [4]. - Yin Hua Fund expresses skepticism about significant upward movement in indices, emphasizing a focus on performance certainty as the market approaches the half-year reporting period [5].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of "capacity reduction," which is reflected in the decline of capital expenditure, the abandonment of existing projects, and the guidance for the survival of the fittest among existing enterprises. This capacity reduction is a slow variable that will elevate the long-term profitability capability [3] - The current strong performance of the A-share market suggests a growing focus on long-term positive factors, although the current fundamental expectations and profit-making effects are not yet at bull market levels. The company's market outlook remains unchanged, predicting that 2026-27 will be the core period of the bull market, with signs of index improvement starting in Q4 2025 [3] - The article notes that the capital expenditure of internet platforms may improve, serving as a driving force for stock prices in the domestic AI computing power industry chain. In the short term, the market is highly focused on sectors such as electric equipment, steel, and building materials [3] Group 2 - Service consumption is recovering, with a notable expansion in the price decline of white liquor and pork. Year-on-year growth rates have been continuously rising since the beginning of the year [6]

Valuation Summary - The overall PE of the CSI A-shares is 18.7 times, positioned at the historical 70th percentile [3][6] - The PE of the Shanghai 50 Index is 11.1 times, at the historical 56th percentile [3][6] - The PE of the CSI 500 Index is 27.7 times, at the historical 40th percentile [3][6] - The PE of the ChiNext Index is 30.4 times, at the historical 10th percentile [3][6] - The PE of the CSI 1000 Index is 36.9 times, at the historical 40th percentile [3][6] - The PE of the National 2000 Index is 48.3 times, at the historical 65th percentile [3][6] - The PE of the Sci-Tech 50 Index is 131.8 times, at the historical 97th percentile [3][6] - The PE of the North Exchange 50 Index is 63.9 times, at the historical 92nd percentile [3][6] - The ChiNext Index's PE relative to the CSI 300 is 2.4 times, at the historical 4th percentile [3][6] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Steel, Electric Equipment (Photovoltaic Equipment), National Defense, Aviation, Chemical Pharmaceuticals, and IT Services [3][4] - No industries have PB valuations above the historical 85th percentile [3][4] - Industries with both PE and PB below the historical 15th percentile include Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Medical Services [3][4] Industry Midstream Prosperity Tracking New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, upstream polysilicon futures prices fell by 12.2%, and spot prices decreased by 0.7% [3][4] - The price of silicon wafers dropped by 2.8%, while battery prices fell by 6.9% [3][4] - Lithium prices for lithium hexafluorophosphate and lithium carbonate decreased by 1.0% and 1.1%, respectively [3][4] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar increased by 0.6%, while iron ore prices fell by 1.7% [3][4] - National commercial housing sales area decreased by 2.9% year-on-year from January to May 2025 [3][4] - Real estate development investment completed from January to May 2025 fell by 10.7% year-on-year [3][4] Consumption - The average price of live pigs increased by 1.4%, while pork wholesale prices rose by 0.3% [3][4] - The retail sales growth rate from January to May 2025 was 5.0%, with a significant rebound in May [3][4] Midstream Manufacturing - Manufacturing investment and narrow infrastructure investment grew by 8.5% and 5.6% year-on-year, respectively [3][4] - The output of industrial robots increased by 32.0% year-on-year from January to May 2025 [3][4] Technology TMT - The output of integrated circuits grew by 6.8% year-on-year from January to May 2025 [3][4] - The export value of optical communication modules decreased by 6.9% year-on-year [3][4] Cyclicals - Brent crude oil futures prices rose by 2.9% to $77.32 per barrel [3][4] - The Baltic Dry Index fell by 14.2% [3][4]

Group 1: Liquidity and Performance of Consumption ETF - The Consumption ETF managed by Jia Shi recorded a trading volume of 2.7878 million yuan on the trading day, with an average daily trading volume of 10.1431 million yuan over the past year [3] - The fund's scale increased by 127 million yuan over the past year, and its shares grew by 2.6 million in the past week [3] - Since its inception, the Consumption ETF has achieved a maximum monthly return of 24.5%, with the longest consecutive monthly gains lasting 7 months and a total increase of 66.83% [3] Group 2: Valuation and Market Trends - The latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the index tracked by the Consumption ETF is 18.72, which is in the 0.4% percentile over the past year, indicating a valuation lower than 99.6% of the time in the last year [3] - The "old-for-new" policy is effectively stimulating consumer potential, leading to increased sales in key categories, with expectations for a positive domestic market in 2025 [4] - The service consumption sector is rapidly growing, with retail sales projected to increase by 6.2% year-on-year in 2024, and per capita service consumption expenditure reaching 46.1% [4] Group 3: Industry Composition and Key Players - The Consumption ETF tracks the major consumption index, which includes leading A-share companies across various sectors such as liquor, pork, dairy, condiments, and food processing, with liquor being the largest sector at a weight of 45% [4] - Key stocks within the ETF include Kweichow Moutai (10.54% weight), Yili (9.91% weight), and Wuliangye (9.16% weight), among others [6] - Investors can also access the Consumption ETF through the Jia Shi Consumption ETF Connect Fund (009180) to capitalize on the consumption recovery trend [6]

Valuation Summary - The overall PE of the A-share market is 18.7 times, positioned at the historical 71st percentile [2][5] - The PE of the Shanghai 50 Index is 10.9 times, at the historical 52nd percentile [2][5] - The PE of the ChiNext Index is 31.0 times, at the historical 11th percentile, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical levels [2][5] - The PE of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index is 137.9 times, at the historical 98th percentile, suggesting a high valuation [2][5] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Steel, Power Equipment (Photovoltaic Equipment), National Defense, and Pharmaceuticals [2][6] - No industries have PB valuations above the historical 85th percentile [2][6] - Industries with both PE and PB valuations below the historical 15th percentile include Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Medical Services [2][6] Industry Midstream Economic Tracking New Energy - The price of polysilicon futures decreased by 2.4%, while spot prices remained stable [2][3] - The retail sales of new energy vehicles in May 2025 increased by 28.2% year-on-year, although the growth rate has slowed compared to previous months [2][3] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar fell by 0.8%, and iron ore prices decreased by 1.9% [2][3] - The national cement price index rose by 0.1%, indicating some stability in the cement market [2][3] Consumption - The average price of live pigs decreased by 0.2%, and the wholesale price of pork fell by 1.0% [2][3] - The wholesale price index for liquor dropped by 0.17% in early June 2025 [2][3] Midstream Manufacturing - Excavator sales in May 2025 increased by 2.1% year-on-year, but the growth rate has slowed significantly [2][3] Cyclical Industries - Brent crude oil futures closed at $75.18 per barrel, up 12.8%, driven by geopolitical tensions [2][3] - The Baltic Dry Index rose by 20.5%, indicating an increase in shipping rates [2][3]