Summary of the Conference Call on Swine Farming Industry Industry Overview - The swine farming industry is currently experiencing a significant decline in pig prices, primarily due to an increase in the number of breeding sows and a reduction in seasonal disease impacts, breaking the price stability observed earlier in the year at around 14 RMB per kilogram [1][2][3] - The efficiency cycle was crucial for maintaining stable prices from early 2025 to September, but as disease impacts lessen, supply pressures are becoming evident [1][2] Key Points and Arguments - **Price Decline**: The rapid decline in pig prices from over 14 RMB in early September to below 11 RMB in some provinces is attributed to increased supply pressures from rising breeding sow numbers and reduced seasonal disease impacts [2][3] - **Impact of Breeding Sows**: Although the Ministry of Agriculture reports limited growth in breeding sow numbers (2%-3%), companies like Muyuan Foods are showing much higher output growth, indicating significant improvements in production efficiency [5][8] - **African Swine Fever (ASF) Effects**: The decline of ASF has notably improved production efficiency, reducing discount effects and increasing market supply, which explains the limited price increase despite a reduction in breeding sows [6][7] - **Supply Dynamics**: The concept of "two育" (extending the breeding period to increase weight) has limited impact on market supply as it cannot indefinitely accumulate inventory [4] - **Future Price Expectations**: The baseline expectation for 2026 pig prices is relatively positive, but prices may not remain high due to ongoing supply pressures from improved production efficiency [5][9] - **Market Cycle Changes**: The industry is currently in a downward cycle, with prices expected to fall below 14 RMB, potentially reaching 12 RMB or lower, as the market adjusts to increased supply [9][10] - **Capacity Reduction**: The industry is expected to accelerate its capacity reduction process, with group enterprises starting to reduce capacity this year and individual farmers expected to follow after the Spring Festival [12][14] - **Stock Market Opportunities**: It is considered a good time to invest in the swine farming sector, particularly focusing on leading companies and those with growth potential, with an anticipated overall increase in stock prices of at least 30% [15][17] Additional Important Insights - **Production Efficiency Trends**: Despite a stable number of breeding sows, production efficiency has improved significantly, equating to an effective increase in supply by about 10% [8] - **Future Industry Trends**: The first half of next year is expected to see growth in output from most companies, with a focus on companies that are likely to increase breeding sow numbers again [16][17] - **Investment Strategy**: Investors are advised to focus on leading companies like Muyuan and Wen's Food Group, as well as those with growth potential, due to the anticipated long-term losses and significant capacity adjustment space in the market [15][17]

Core Viewpoint - After the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, the price of live pigs has significantly dropped, with futures contracts falling nearly 6% to below 12,000 yuan per ton, contrasting with the rise in gold and silver prices [1] Group 1: Price Trends - The domestic pig price has accelerated its decline over the past two months, with the weighted average price for October futures contracts dropping by 7.9% and September's price falling by 8.4%, marking the largest monthly decline since January [2] - The sales data from listed pig companies indicate an increase in sales volume despite the drop in average selling prices, with companies like Wens Foodstuffs reporting a 2.45% month-on-month increase in sales [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - There is a significant increase in the outflow pressure of pigs, with planned slaughter volumes for October expected to rise by 5.48% compared to September [4] - The demand for live pigs is experiencing a phase of inertia decline, as post-holiday consumption is expected to weaken, leading to limited new orders for slaughterhouses [5] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The overall market sentiment is pessimistic, with institutions expressing a bearish outlook for pig prices over the next three months due to high levels of breeding sows and slow capacity reduction [6] - The industry is entering a phase of losses, with many companies focusing on cost-cutting and cash flow management, indicating a challenging environment ahead [6] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while the current supply pressure is high, there may be hope for future price recovery as capacity reduction progresses, particularly with the expected decrease in the number of breeding sows [7] - The market is closely monitoring the potential for supply adjustments in the long term, as the current increase in slaughter volumes may lead to a more balanced supply-demand situation in the future [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company announced a cash dividend plan and reported significant changes in sales and financial performance for September 2025, indicating both growth and challenges in the pig farming industry [2][4]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 764.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.46% [4][5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 105.30 billion yuan, a staggering increase of 1169.77% compared to the same period last year [4][5]. - The basic earnings per share rose to 1.96 yuan, reflecting a 1206.67% increase year-on-year [5]. Sales Data - In September 2025, the company sold 557.3 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 11.05% [2][3]. - The average selling price of pigs was 12.88 yuan per kilogram, down 30.94% year-on-year [2][3]. - Total sales revenue from pigs in September was 90.66 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.46% compared to the previous year [2][3]. Market Outlook - The company has adjusted its forecast for piglets to be sold in 2025, increasing the expected range from 800 million to 1200 million to a new range of 1200 million to 1450 million [3]. - The company is focusing on providing high-quality and stable piglet supply to meet market demand [3]. Dividend Announcement - The company announced a cash dividend of 9.275214 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 50.02 billion yuan, with the record date set for October 15, 2025 [2]. Stock Performance - As of October 9, 2025, the company's stock price was 52.85 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 288.7 billion yuan [5].

格隆汇10月9日丨东瑞股份(001201.SZ)公布，2025年9月份，公司共销售生猪9.99万头，销售收入1.63亿 元，环比上升1.50%；商品猪销售均价14.58元/公斤，环比下降8.03%。其中向全资子公司河源市东瑞肉 类食品有限公司销售生猪0.38万头。 ...

云南神农农业产业集团股份有限公司 证券代码：605296 证券简称：神农集团 公告编号：2025-116 2025 年 9 月养殖业务主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 云南神农农业产业集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）现将 2025 年 9 月养殖业务主要经营数据披露如下： 一、2025 年 9 月养殖业务主要经营数据 单位：万头 | 主要产品 | 销售量 | | 销售量同比增减(%) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 当月 | 累计 | 当月 | 累计 | | 生猪 | 22.90 | 210.96 | 15.02 | 26.80 | 2025 年 9 月份，公司销售生猪 22.90 万头（其中：商品猪销售 21.38 万头， 仔猪销售 0.89 万头），销售收入 3.64 亿元。其中向集团内部屠宰企业销售生猪 4.98 万头。 2025 年 9 月份，公司商品猪价格呈现下降趋势，商品猪销售均价 12.82 元/ 公斤，比 2025 年 8 月份 ...

证券代码：603363 证券简称：傲农生物 公告编号：2025-097 福建傲农生物科技集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）现将 2025 年 9 月养殖业务主要经营数据披露如下： | 主要产品 | 销售量 | 库存量 | 销售量同比 增减（%） | 库存量同比 增减（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 生猪 | 16.44 | 63.52 | +12.20 | +33.70 | 一、2025 年 9 月养殖业务主要经营数据 2025 年 9 月，公司生猪销售量 16.44 万头，同比增加 12.20%，较 2025 年 8 月增加 9.54%。 2025 年 9 月末，公司生猪存栏 63.52 万头，同比增加 33.70%，较 2025 年 8 月末增加 4.97%，较 2024 年 12 月末增加 23.83%。 单位：万头 福建傲农生物科技集团股份有限公司 2025 年 9 月养殖业务主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 福建傲农生物科技集团股份有限公 ...

研究报告 生猪月报 供需维持偏松格局，盘面维持低位震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 后的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 证监许可【2012】1087 号 研究员：张正卯 2025 年 9 月生猪期货主力合约期价在 12220-13710 元/吨之 间运行。整体来看，9 月生猪期货主力合约呈现震荡下行的走势， 当月总体大幅下跌。 截至 2025 年 9 月 30 日下午收盘，当月生猪主力合约 LH2511 下跌 1200 元/吨，跌幅 8.85%，报收 12355 元/吨。 【后市展望】 2025 年 9 月，生猪期货主力合约呈现震荡下行的走势，当月 总体大幅下跌。 报告日期：2025 年 10 月 9 日星期四 展望后市，行业政策方面，9 月 16 日畜牧业协会召开生猪产 能调控企业座谈会，调控明年生猪出栏供给。从供给端来看，从 能繁母猪存栏量推算，供给端对猪价形成持续压力。8 月猪肉月 度进口处于历史低位。需求端来看，7 月末屠宰量环比小幅上升， 处于历史高位。随着气温 ...

第一，房子已经迎来降价潮 不过，也有一些商品的价格迎来降价潮。对此，有业内人士表示：从10月起，我们将迎来四大"降价潮"。它们分别是：房子、车子、小家电、猪肉。为此， 有人会偷着乐，但也有人会愈发焦虑。让我们一起来了解一下： 在进入到2025年之后，国内房价继续延续之前下跌的趋势。根据最新数据，9月全国百城二手住宅均价为13381元/平方米，同比下跌7.38%。与此同时，新房 销售额和面积都出现下滑，同时二手房的挂牌量仍在不断的增加。 现在无论是新房，还是二手房，都不好卖了。而在进入到"金九银十"之后，开发商为提升业绩，会选择降价促销。此外，二手房东只有远低于市场价抛售房 子，才有可能成交。 而导致房价长期下跌的原因有三个：①国内房子已经有6亿栋，每栋房子住5个人，可以住30亿人。未来房子将长期"供大于求"。②我国已经是老龄化社会， 越来越多的老年人有自己的房子，不需要购买，年轻人数量越来越少，购房需求会萎缩。③各地房价存在泡沫，三四线城市房价收入比20-25，一线城市40 以上。而现在当地居民收入增长放缓，已经支撑不了当前的高房价。 在进入到2025年之后，一些与老百姓生活休戚相关的商品价格都在上涨，居民生 ...

Core Viewpoint - The capital market serves as a barometer for the national economy, reflecting the vitality of the real economy and the direction of industrial restructuring, while also providing essential resources for industry upgrades and quality improvements [1]. Group 1: Economic Development in Henan - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the number of listed companies in Henan has steadily increased, with notable companies like Muyuan Foods and Shuanghui Development leveraging the capital market to solidify their industry positions [2]. - The capital market in Henan is transitioning from "quantitative accumulation" to "qualitative enhancement," injecting financial momentum into key sectors such as grain production and advanced manufacturing [2][4]. - By the end of 2025, the number of A-share listed companies in Henan has grown from 87 to 112, leading the central region of China [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Capital Empowerment - Since 2021, Henan enterprises have consistently raised over 100 billion yuan through bond financing, with the total bond issuance reaching 4,958 billion yuan, doubling since 2021 [4]. - The average cost of bond issuance has decreased to 2.66%, down 212 basis points from its peak [4]. - In 2025, the revenue of Muyuan Foods is projected to grow from 56.3 billion yuan in 2020 to 137.9 billion yuan [4]. Group 3: Technological Advancements and R&D Investment - Muyuan Foods has significantly increased its investment in R&D, focusing on smart farming and disease prevention, with a total of 2,276 patents filed by the end of 2024 [5]. - The overall R&D intensity of listed companies in Henan reached 5.57% in 2024, an increase of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [10]. - The company Duofuduo has successfully raised 2 billion yuan for technological upgrades and capacity expansion in lithium battery materials [5]. Group 4: Investor Returns and Dividend Distribution - In 2025, Shuanghui Development announced a cash dividend of 2.65 billion yuan, representing 96.94% of its net profit for the period [11]. - Muyuan Foods has distributed nearly 18 billion yuan in dividends from 2021 to mid-2025, with a record high of over 5 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [11]. - The cumulative cash dividends of Luoyang Molybdenum Co. reached 21.56 billion yuan since its listing in 2012, with over 12 billion yuan distributed during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [11]. Group 5: Financial Tools and Market Integration - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has listed 27 futures and 20 options products, capturing 35.03% of the national futures market share [13]. - The exchange has provided risk management services to over 700 enterprises, with agricultural insurance and futures business covering 3.914 billion yuan [14]. - The province has successfully issued various REITs products, enhancing the financing channels for traditional industries [15][16].

Group 1 - The capital market serves as a barometer for the national economy, reflecting the vitality of the real economy and the trends in industrial structure adjustment [1] - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the capital market in Henan has played a significant role in economic development, with an increase in the number of listed companies and the emergence of leading enterprises like Muyuan Foods and Shuanghui Development [2][3] - Henan's capital market is transitioning from "quantitative accumulation" to "qualitative improvement," injecting financial momentum into key industries such as grain production and advanced manufacturing [2] Group 2 - The number of A-share listed companies in Henan increased from 87 at the end of 2020 to 112, with 13 companies listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange, leading among the six central provinces [3] - Since 2021, Henan enterprises have consistently raised over 100 billion yuan in bond financing annually, with the total bond issuance reaching 495.8 billion yuan, doubling since 2021 [5] - The average cost of bond issuance has decreased to 2.66%, down 212 basis points from its peak [5] Group 3 - Leading companies like Muyuan Foods have achieved significant growth, with revenue increasing from 56.3 billion yuan in 2020 to 137.9 billion yuan in 2024 [5][6] - Muyuan Foods has invested heavily in R&D for smart farming and disease prevention, supported by capital market financing [6] - The company has filed 2,276 patents, with 138 new patents granted in 2024 alone [6] Group 4 - By August 2025, the number of A-share listed companies in Henan with a market capitalization exceeding 10 billion yuan reached 35, doubling from the previous year [8] - Nearly 80% of listed companies in Henan reported profits, with total revenue and net profit reaching record highs, and 13 companies exceeding 10 billion yuan in revenue [8][9] - R&D investment among listed companies in Henan increased, with an overall R&D intensity of 5.57% in 2024, up 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [9] Group 5 - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has listed 27 futures and 20 options products, capturing 35.03% of the national futures market volume [11] - The exchange has attracted 2.2 trillion yuan in settlement funds and has introduced foreign investors to several products [11] - The use of futures for risk management has been demonstrated by local companies successfully hedging against price fluctuations [12] Group 6 - Henan has actively explored the issuance of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) to support the development of the real economy, with successful issuances covering various sectors [13] - The province has implemented policies to support mergers and acquisitions among listed companies, aiming to enhance traditional industries and foster emerging sectors [14] - The government plans to deepen cooperation with major stock exchanges to facilitate more companies in raising funds through listings [14][15]