Core Viewpoint - The emergence of the "launch economy" is fundamentally reshaping consumer landscapes, breaking traditional linear growth models and establishing a dynamic interaction system among products, consumers, and markets [1] Group 1: Nature of the Launch Economy - The launch economy represents an extreme form of "new" business, creating scarcity experiences through strategic launches like "global launch, national launch, and regional launch" [2] - This new business model is driven by three forces: technological innovation providing push, consumer upgrades creating pull, and market competition exerting pressure [2] Group 2: Growth Patterns Across Multiple Fields - The launch economy in China is entering a rapid growth phase, with breakthroughs in various sectors such as electronics, fashion, and new energy vehicles [3] - Major cities like Shanghai and Beijing are increasingly internationalizing their fashion weeks, with local brands successfully integrating traditional cultural elements with modern design [3] Group 3: Ripple Effects on the Supply Chain - The launch economy is prompting a transformation in the supply chain, pushing companies to accelerate R&D innovation and emphasizing rapid response and precise delivery in distribution [4] - Collaborative innovation across all stages from R&D to sales is essential for success in the launch economy [4] Group 4: Regional Differentiation Practices - Different cities are developing unique strategies to promote the launch economy, with Shanghai's initiative to become a global launch hub showing positive results [5] - Policies should be more targeted and flexible to encourage manufacturing upgrades through the launch economy [5] Group 5: Global Exploration and Challenges - Compared to Western markets, China's launch economy benefits from a large consumer market, a complete industrial chain, and advanced digital capabilities [6] - Cultural barriers exist for global launches, necessitating localization efforts such as hiring local designers [6] Group 6: Future Trends and Paradigm Shifts - The launch economy is expected to accelerate innovation cycles, with companies potentially launching products multiple times a year [8] - The essence of this transformation is a shift from product-oriented to experience-value-driven business logic, leading to the formation of industry alliances centered around launches [8]

朱克力中国信息协会常务理事，国研新经济研究院创始院长、新经济智库(CiNE)首席研究员，湾区新经 济研究院院长。 在全球消费市场加速转型与技术创新深度渗透的双重背景下，首发经济作为一种以"首发性""稀缺 性""体验性"为核心特征的商业形态，正成为驱动消费升级、重塑产业竞争格局的重要力量。作为中国 消费变革的新引擎，首发经济不仅打破了传统商业的线性增长模式，更通过技术创新、场景重构与价值 共创，构建了"产品—消费者—市场"的动态互动体系。近日，国研新经济研究院创始院长、《首发经 济：中国消费变革新驱动》作者朱克力做客本报《理论研究周刊》，从理论内涵、发展阶段、消费心 理、政策效应、未来趋势等维度，系统性阐述首发经济的发展态势和行业实践。 首发经济的核心驱动因素和行业演进特征 《金融时报》记者：您如何定义首发经济？它与传统消费模式的本质区别是什么？推动首发经济崛起的 核心驱动力有哪些？ 朱克力：首发经济就是把"新"字做到极致的商业形态。它不是简单把新产品放到市场上，而是通过一系 列精心策划的"首秀"，把商品、服务、技术甚至商业模式，以全球首发、全国首发、区域首发的形式推 向大众。就像电影首映礼，把最精彩的内容用最 ...

奇瑞董事长尹同跃近日在一档访谈节目中表示，技术是魔鬼，安全是底线，我们是不是把这些技术魔鬼 摸透了，它会不会发疯？尹同跃认为很多国内车企传播胆子太大了。"在国内好多企业，成立也不到6年 时间，它就能出来好多车，这个对我们来讲是不太理解的"。 阿里更新四项内部文化举措 新浪科技从多位知情人士处独家获悉，阿里巴巴今天在内部正式官宣了四项组织文化调整举措：一是， 打通内网论坛"阿里味儿"；二是，调整员工跨业务流动机制；三是，继续做好510阿里日活动、阿里家 书和年陈文化等文化仪式；四是，启动工牌焕新等。 马斯克回应Grok3.5发布时间 5月10日清晨，雷军时隔月余发声表示："过去一个多月，是我创办小米以来最艰难的一段时间，情绪比 较低落。这段时间反而可以静下心来，仔细思考，确实有一些收获…… 大家的关心和支持，给了我莫 大的信心，让我也逐渐找回前行的勇气和信心。" 英伟达就修改版芯片通知中国客户 美国政府对英伟达的H20人工智能（AI）芯片实施出口限制约一个月后，据报英伟达计划在未来两个月 内，为中国市场推出降级版的H20。路透社引述三名消息人士的话报道称，英伟达已通知其主要中国客 户，包括云计算领域的巨头公司， ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China, particularly regarding tariffs and agricultural exports [1][6] - The US soybean exports to China have drastically declined due to tariffs, with the price of US soybeans reaching $1026 per ton compared to $580 per ton for Brazilian soybeans, leading to a halt in exports [1][3] - The Trump administration is under pressure from US farmers who are facing significant losses due to unsold agricultural products, prompting a search for new export markets, particularly in Japan [3][4] Group 2 - Japan is considering increasing imports of US agricultural products, such as corn and soybeans, as part of trade negotiations with the US, which may help mitigate the impact of reduced exports to China [3][4] - Japan's willingness to import more US agricultural products is influenced by its reliance on the US for security and economic stability, aiming to secure concessions in other trade areas, such as automotive tariffs [4][6] - The trade deficit between the US and Japan was reported to be 9 trillion yen last year, indicating that merely increasing agricultural imports will not satisfy the US demands for reducing the trade gap [6] Group 3 - China's response to US tariffs has been firm, with officials emphasizing that negotiations cannot occur under pressure and that any agreement must be based on mutual respect and benefits [6][8] - The trade war initiated by the US is seen as detrimental not only to US and Chinese interests but also to global economic stability, highlighting the interconnectedness of international trade [8] - Japan's strategy of increasing agricultural imports from the US may lead to domestic agricultural instability, as local farmers could be adversely affected by the influx of cheaper US products [6][8]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Vietnamese economy, with a projected GDP growth target of 8% for 2025, supported by increased public investment and domestic consumption [4][27]. Core Insights - Vietnam's GDP growth accelerated to 6.9% in Q1 2025, up from 5.9% in Q1 2024, driven by increases in domestic consumption and investment [2][11]. - Retail sales saw a significant increase of 10.8% year-on-year in March 2025, marking the highest monthly growth in nearly two years, attributed to rising wages and improved purchasing power [20][21]. - Industrial production improved with a year-on-year growth of 8.6% in March 2025, compared to 4.8% in March 2024, driven by sectors such as apparel, electronics, and machinery [13][31]. - Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) commitments decreased by 9.2% year-on-year in Q1 2025, reflecting cautious investor sentiment amid global trade uncertainties, although FDI disbursements remained resilient [17][18]. Economic Performance - The average monthly income in the first three months of 2025 rose by 9.5% compared to the same period in 2024, leading to a real wage growth of 6% [20]. - The inflation rate in March 2025 increased to 3.1%, driven by rising food and housing prices, but remained below the State Bank of Vietnam's target of 4.5-5% for 2025 [22][23]. - The trade surplus decreased to $3.2 billion in Q1 2025, down from $7.7 billion in Q1 2024, due to a slowdown in export growth to 10.6% from 16.8% [11][12]. Fiscal Overview - Fiscal revenue in the first quarter of 2025 reached 36.7% of the annual budget, up from 31.7% in the same period of 2024, primarily due to increased VAT and corporate income tax collections [3][27]. - Public investment disbursement rates slowed to 9.5% of the annual plan by the end of March 2025, compared to 12.3% in the previous year, posing challenges for achieving the GDP growth target [27].

如果说2025年之前，出海还只是部分公司的选择， 那在2025年之后，出海已经成为了一个"必答题"。 因为对于国内大部分企业来说，海外市场都是远大于国内市场的。 然而，在贸易战、关税壁垒和逆全球化冲击下，当前企业出海的风险和困难比大部分人想象的还要大， 为了提升企业出海的成功率， 我们已经把企业出海最容易失败的地方和重点注意事项逐一梳理好了， 就在最新上线的 《中国企业出海指南》 中。 中国企业出海指南 1.纸质资料《中国企业出海指南》 2.线上课程《境内企业赴美国上市的法律实务解读》 3.梧桐定制笔记本1个 中国企业出海指南 新品特惠 扫码 立减20元 《中国企业出海指南》共有 332页 ， 15.5万字 ，9个章节，主要从海外布局、监管要求、股权架构、 审批流程、交易文件、合规风险、税务考量、区域国别等角度出发，全景式梳理了企业出海的实务要 点。 境外投资的主要法律文件 操作时间境外投资敏感类项目 0 限制/禁止开展的境外投资 商务流程 ODI备案/核准流程 境外投资的常见流程与风险 ⊙ 没有办理ODI备案的后果 发改委备案/核准 3. 境外投资的境 商务部备案/核准 内审批流程 外汇登记 境外投资的境内 ...

过了40年，相似的剧本似乎正在韩国上演。美国财长贝森特公开宣称，"率先达成协议者获益最大"，要求韩国在汽车关税、液化天然气项目等领域让步，换 取"美国优先"框架下的贸易优惠。 贝森特给了韩国一个"相当优先"的位置，其在接受彭博社采访时宣称："上周与越南进行了谈判，周三与日本，下周将与韩国展开磋商，进程会非常迅速。" 特朗普把关税"武器化"之后，韩国政坛开始为韩美谈判陷入激烈争论。美国特朗普政府宣布将韩国列为"优先谈判目标"，要求其接受以"对等关税"为核心的 贸易规则重构。 面对美方步步紧逼，韩国代总统韩德洙高调宣称"推进谈判、寻求双赢"，但韩媒《韩民族日报》发出警告，仓促妥协可能让韩国重蹈日本"广场协议"覆辙， 陷入"失去的二十年"的深渊。 1985年，日本在美国压力下签署《广场协议》，被迫让日元大幅升值，最终促使日本经济泡沫破裂，陷入长期停滞。 韩国如果想要破局，需加速与中国、东盟等国家和组织深化合作，减少对美依赖，但政治亲美惯性让这一转型举步维艰。 韩国执政党的"速战速决"策略，或许能换来短期选票，却可能将国家推向让渡经济主权的深渊。如果韩德洙在特朗普飘忽不定的政策下贸然推进谈判，可能 犯下战略错误。 美 ...

据央视新闻报道，美国海关宣布按特朗普指示，对进口中国的电脑、智能手机等电子产品及零部件实施 关税豁免，全球市场为之震动。这一戏剧性反转，在美国国内掀起舆论狂潮，背后折射出的多重矛盾与 困境，远比表面的政策转变更为复杂。 美债危机更是悬在美国头顶的达摩克利斯之剑。当前美国国债规模高达36万亿美元，每天需偿还19亿美 元利息，每分钟烧掉132万美元。特朗普发动关税战，妄图逼迫各国购买美债以缓解债务危机，结果却 适得其反。10年期美债收益率飙升至5.2%，中国连续三年减持美债，全球央行纷纷增加黄金储备。美 国的这波操作，不仅没能缓解债务压力，反而加速了美元霸权根基的动摇。 政治层面，特朗普此举也是无奈之举。中期选举临近，62%的摇摆州选民将通胀归咎于关税政策，特朗 普在五大湖铁锈带的民调支持率直线下滑。为保住政治基本盘，他只能选择关税豁免，试图用这一举措 暂时安抚选民情绪，为自己的政治前途争取筹码。但这种战术性撤退，也让美国在国际舆论场陷入尴尬 境地，暴露了其对华政策的脆弱与摇摆。 反观中国，在这场博弈中始终保持战略定力。面对美国的关税挑衅，中国采取对等反制措施，同时在稀 土出口管制、WTO诉讼、产能全球化布局等多 ...

Economic Outlook - The Peterson Institute for International Economics warns that despite temporarily avoiding a technical recession, the U.S. economy is facing significant challenges due to a combination of tariffs, tightened immigration policies, and budget cuts, leading to a projected GDP growth drop from 2.5% in 2024 to 0.1% in 2025, with inflation expectations rising to 4.5% and unemployment potentially reaching 5% [1][4]. Tariff Impact - The report identifies recent tariff increases as the "core engine" of economic slowdown, with the tariff rate on imported goods reaching 28% in Q1 2025, a 15 percentage point increase from 2023, resulting in a 9.7% year-over-year rise in the consumer price index for imported goods [3][4]. - The hidden cost of tariffs is significant, with every $1 in tariff revenue costing consumers $1.20, affecting essential goods and leading to an 18% increase in raw material costs for manufacturers [3][4]. Labor Market and Immigration - The tightening of immigration policies is projected to reduce legal immigration quotas by 40% compared to 2023, leading to a 1.2 percentage point decline in labor force participation, impacting approximately 3 million jobs in retail and manufacturing [4][5]. - The labor shortage is expected to increase business costs and reduce potential consumer demand by $80 billion annually [4]. Government Budget Cuts - A 20% budget cut in government efficiency departments is causing delays in customs clearance and small business subsidy approvals, exacerbating challenges for the private sector [4][5]. - 38% of businesses have reportedly abandoned plans to expand into overseas markets due to government approval delays [4]. Consumer Spending and Inflation - Rising inflation is eroding wage growth, leading to a contraction in consumer spending, with core retail sales declining by 0.3% in March [5][6]. - The economic slowdown in the U.S. is expected to impact global markets, with emerging market export orders declining by 15% and a projected 0.8 percentage point reduction in growth for economies reliant on U.S. exports [5][6]. Federal Reserve Policy Challenges - The report warns that the Federal Reserve may face a "stagflation paradox," where high inflation and low growth limit policy options, potentially leading to a repeat of the 1970s scenario where interest rates were raised significantly to combat inflation at the cost of prolonged recession [8].

重要提示：本材料不构成任何形式的要约、承诺或其他法律文件，亦非任何投资、法律或财务等方面的专业建议。过往业绩不预示 未来表现。投资须谨慎。 关税是近期市场普遍关心的话题，我们整理了一些外资投行的观察视角，以供参考。 截至本文发布，美国总统特朗普表示，他正考虑对进口汽车和零部件关税实施临时豁免的可能性， 以便让汽车企业有更多时间在美国建立生产设施。 在此之前，特朗普称豁免电子产品关税只是一项 临时措施，这些产品将被即将实施的行业关税所覆盖。 局势正在以分钟级速度演变。 关税政策能重振美国的就业吗？ 有外资报告援引学术研究结果显示，特朗普关税政策或对美国就业存在负面影响。关税税率每提高10个 百分点，受保护行业的就业岗位将增加0.2-0.4%；而关税驱动成本每上升1个百分点，就业岗位会减少 0.3-0.6%。考虑美国的经济体量，意味着关税保护对制造业就业的提振作用不足10万个岗位，而由此带 来的成本压力对下游就业的拖累效应则高达约50万个岗位。 企业应对关税风险的五种常见策略 外资投行基于观察企业应对上一轮关税争端的经验，总结出面对关税风险企业通常可以采取的五种应对 策略。在最新的关税政策下，部分策略是否还能继续 ...