Core Viewpoints - The main contract for egg futures experienced a rapid decline, reaching a low of 3285.00 yuan, with a current price of 3288.00 yuan, reflecting a drop of 2.52% [1] - Institutions have differing views on the future of egg prices, with some suggesting a cautious approach to buying on dips and others indicating potential volatility in the short term [1][2] Group 1: Market Analysis - According to Fangzheng Zhongqi Futures, the egg market is expected to see a rebound in consumption as it transitions from the seasonal low to the peak season by the end of August, with current spot prices around 3.10 yuan per jin, up 0.20 yuan from the previous week [1] - Wenkang Futures notes that while egg prices are at a low point, increased demand from traders and food manufacturers may support price increases, although high inventory levels and cold storage eggs could limit the extent of price rises [2] Group 2: Trading Strategies - Fangzheng Zhongqi Futures recommends a strategy of buying September or October contracts on dips, as current prices are approaching historical lows from 2020, advising caution against speculative short selling [1] - Wenkang Futures suggests that the market may experience fluctuations in the short term due to the accumulation of expectations for a rebound in spot prices, while also indicating that the overall supply remains high, which could suppress significant price increases [2]

Report Title - Egg Weekly Report: General Demand Performance, Weak Egg Price Trend [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Supply-side pressure is significant, and demand is general, leading to a decline in egg prices. The rebound of egg prices earlier led to the release of cold-storage eggs, which impacted prices. Although the September contract is a peak-season contract, the current spot price is falling, suggesting potential further decline in futures prices. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [18]. Summary by Directory Part One: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies 1. Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.86 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.33 yuan per catty from last Friday, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.09 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.31 yuan per catty from last Friday. The terminal demand at the beginning of the week did not improve significantly, the number of newly opened production continued to increase, and the continuous high-temperature weather in the northern region put pressure on egg prices. After the egg price fell, market confidence was frustrated, and the inventory in the producing areas increased. The price of old hens fell this week as the breeding side's confidence in the future was frustrated, and the terminal demand was weak [5]. 2. Supply Analysis - The shipment volume in the producing areas decreased this week. According to Zhuochuang data, the number of egg-laying hens slaughtered in the main producing areas nationwide in the week of July 25 was 13.38 million, a decrease of 11% from the previous week, and the average slaughter age of laying hens in the week of July 24 was 506 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week. In July, the inventory of laying hens in production nationwide was 1.356 billion, an increase of 16 million from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 6.1%. The monthly output of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in July was 39.98 million, a month-on-month decrease of 2% and a year-on-year decrease of 4%. Without considering delayed slaughter and concentrated slaughter, the approximate inventory of laying hens in production from August to November 2025 is estimated to be 1.356 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.358 billion, and 1.351 billion respectively [10]. 3. Cost Analysis - The feed cost changed little this week. As of August 7, the corn price was around 2,395 yuan per ton, and the soybean meal price fell to 3,008 yuan per ton. The comprehensive feed cost was about 2,579 yuan per ton, and the feed cost per catty of eggs was about 2.83 yuan per catty. The egg price fluctuated weakly this week, and the breeding profit decreased. As of August 7, the weekly average profit per catty of eggs was -0.26 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.23 yuan per catty from the previous week, and the expected profit of laying hen breeding on August 1 was 13.94 yuan per bird, a decrease of 0.03 yuan per catty from the previous week [13]. 4. Demand Analysis - The egg price was weak this week. The terminal demand was weak in the first half of the week, and the market mainly cleared inventory. As the egg price hit a new low, there was a sentiment of bottom-fishing and stockpiling in the downstream market, slightly driving the market volume. The sales volume in the selling areas decreased month-on-month. As of August 7, the sales volume of eggs in the national representative selling areas was 7,529 tons, a decrease of 4.6% from last week. The inventory in the national egg market increased month-on-month. The number of newly opened laying hens increased significantly this week, and the supply of small-sized eggs increased, leading to a price decline. The demand decreased under the high-temperature and humid weather, and the inventory levels of all links increased. It is expected that the inventory in the breeding and circulation links will decrease next month. As of August 7, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.09 days, an increase of 0.08 days from last week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.23 days, an increase of 12 days from the previous week. The vegetable price index rebounded slightly this week, and the pork price index changed little [16]. 5. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [18]. - **Arbitrage**: Stay on the sidelines [18]. - **Options**: Sell put options [17]. Part Two: Weekly Data Tracking - The report provides data tracking charts on inventory, chicken culling, cold-storage eggs, egg-laying hen breeding, price spreads, and basis, including historical data on the inventory of laying hens in production, the number of chicken culling, the price of laying hen chicks, and various price spreads and basis [22][23][30].

Core Viewpoint - The current egg prices in China are experiencing a significant decline, with a 2.3% drop from the previous week and a 23.7% decrease compared to the same period last year, indicating a challenging market environment for the poultry industry [1]. Group 1: Price Trends and Influencing Factors - As of August 4, the wholesale market price for eggs was 7.54 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a notable year-on-year decline [1]. - Traditional seasonal factors such as the rainy season, high temperatures affecting egg production, and pre-Mid-Autumn Festival stocking are typically expected to drive up prices, but this year, the demand is insufficient due to weak capacity reduction [1][4]. - The current age of culling hens has decreased from 538 days to 506 days, but the actual culling volume remains below historical levels, leading to slow capacity clearance and limiting upward price movement [1][4]. Group 2: Inventory and Production Insights - As of the end of July, the national inventory of laying hens was approximately 1.356 billion, showing a month-on-month increase of 1.2% and a year-on-year increase from 1.277 billion [1]. - Future trends indicate that the positive breeding profits starting from May 2024 may lead to increased restocking activity in the second half of 2024, with a slight increase in inventory expected in Q3 of this year [2]. - Despite seasonal demand recovery anticipated in the second half of the year, the high inventory level of around 1.35 billion hens suggests that the industry must undergo significant capacity reduction to achieve market balance [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The egg price is expected to remain under pressure in the near term due to high inventory levels, with potential for further declines [4][5]. - The report suggests that the egg price may follow a pattern of being weak in the short term but stronger in the long term, depending on supply-side adjustments [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, due to the continuous rise in inventory, egg prices face downward pressure and will maintain a weak trend [3]. - Medium - term, the combination of concentrated culling and the Mid - Autumn Festival consumption peak may drive a phased rebound in spot prices from August to September, but the rebound high depends on the culling rhythm, and currently the culling is less than expected, so the high should not be overly optimistic [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Performance - The main contract of egg futures dropped sharply today. As of the time of writing, the 2509 contract fell to 3409 yuan/500 kg, a decline of 2.71% [3]. Spot Performance - Recently, the social inventory level has been continuously rising, and the weak egg price trend over the weekend continued. On August 3, the spot price of Guantao powder eggs was 2.84 yuan/jin, down 0.12 yuan/jin from last Friday [3]. - According to Zhuochuang Information, the national laying - hen inventory in July was about 1.356 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 1.19% and a year - on - year increase of 6.19%. The theoretical estimated laying - hen inventory in August is 1.363 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.52% [3]. Analysis Logic - Short - term, the continuous rise in inventory leads to downward pressure on egg prices, and the prices will run weakly [3]. - Medium - term, concentrated culling and the Mid - Autumn Festival consumption peak may drive a phased rebound in spot prices from August to September, and the rebound high depends on the culling rhythm, with the current culling being less than expected [3]. Operation Suggestions - Last week, it was continuously suggested to maintain a high - short trading idea for the 2509 and 2510 contracts, and the trading strategy has been verified by the market. Currently, it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously. The lower support for the 2509 contract is temporarily at 3390 - 3400, and for the 2510 contract, it is at 3230 - 3240. If the support is effective, partial profit - taking can be considered [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Newly opened production has increased while the culling of old chickens has been sluggish, leading to a larger supply. As a result, the spot price of eggs in the peak season has fallen short of expectations. Near - month short - sellers should continue to squeeze out the premium, and the reverse spread logic prevails in the futures market. However, as the market still anticipates a peak - season rebound in August and September, with the intensification of differences on the futures market after the increase in positions, it is easy to cause reverse fluctuations when the spot price rises. Considering the high inventory throughout the peak season and the fact that subsequent futures contracts cannot reflect the spot price peak, short - sellers should wait for a rebound to sell, and in the short - term, they can appropriately reduce short positions at low prices to avoid position risks [11][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: Last week, egg prices unexpectedly declined. After continuous previous increases, downstream demand was insufficient, and there was resistance to high prices. Coupled with an abundant supply, egg prices were under pressure during the week. However, as it is still the peak season, downstream buyers made purchases after the price drop, slowing down the decline. This week, the price of culled chickens remained high, and the average age of chickens slightly increased. For example, the price of large - sized eggs in Heishan decreased by 0.1 yuan to 2.8 yuan per catty, in Guantao by 0.18 yuan to 3 yuan per catty, in Huilongguan (a sales area) by 0.18 yuan to 3.21 yuan per catty, and in Dongguan by 0.25 yuan to 2.98 yuan per catty. With the continuous increase in newly opened production, limited culling of old chickens, and a large laying - hen inventory, but the high temperature affecting the egg - laying rate, high - quality large - sized eggs were in short supply. As the egg price dropped to a relatively low level, the purchasing enthusiasm of traders increased. It is expected that egg prices will stabilize first and then rise next week, but the increase may be limited due to the inventory [11]. - **Chick Rearing and Culling**: Since the second half of last year, the number of chicks reared has been continuously high due to low costs. However, with the intensification of breeding losses and seasonal factors, the number of chicks reared has significantly decreased. In July, the national number of chicks reared was 79.96 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.1%. In June, due to low - price losses, the culling of chickens increased, and the average age of chickens dropped by 30 days to around 500 days. However, since July, the market's bullish sentiment has gradually increased, the culling volume has stagnated, the price difference between old chickens and white chickens has remained high, and the average age of chickens has returned to the relatively high level of 507 days [11]. - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of July, the inventory of laying hens at sample points was 1.356 billion, higher than previously expected, an increase of 0.16 billion compared to June and a 6.2% increase compared to 1.277 billion in the same period last year. Assuming normal culling, the inventory will continue to increase in the future, with a peak expected in October this year at 1.367 billion, a 0.08% increase compared to the current level. Although it will decline thereafter, it will still remain high, indicating an overall oversupply in the future [11]. - **Demand**: After the plum - rain season, inventory consumption has improved. Subsequently, with the pre - holiday stocking for the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, egg consumption is expected to gradually emerge from the shadow of the off - season in the first half of the year. After the pulsed stocking ends, the consumption peak in the second half of the year will gradually arrive [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the unilateral strategy, short - sell on rebounds for contracts 09, 10, and 11, with a profit - to - loss ratio of 2:1, a recommended period of 1 - 2 months, and the core driving logic including inventory, spot price, cost, demand, and culling, with a two - star recommendation level and first proposed on July 16. No arbitrage strategy is recommended for now [13] 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Price Movement**: Last week, egg prices unexpectedly declined. After continuous previous increases, downstream demand was insufficient, and there was resistance to high prices. Coupled with an abundant supply, egg prices were under pressure during the week. However, as it is still the peak season, downstream buyers made purchases after the price drop, slowing down the decline. This week, the price of culled chickens remained high, and the average age of chickens slightly increased. It is expected that egg prices will stabilize first and then rise next week, but the increase may be limited due to the inventory [20]. - **Basis and Spread**: After the spot price strengthened, it lacked momentum. The current basis is still low, the near - month contracts are under great pressure, and the spread between months tends to be in a reverse spread [23]. - **Culled Chicken Price**: Previously, the culling of old chickens increased, and there was over - culling in some areas, resulting in a significant decline in the price difference between white chickens and culled chickens. However, recently, due to the expectation of price increases in the peak season, the culling of chickens has stagnated [26]. 3.3. Supply Side - **Egg - Laying Hen Rearing**: Since the second half of last year, the number of chicks reared has been continuously high due to low costs. However, with the intensification of breeding losses and seasonal factors, the number of chicks reared has significantly decreased. In July, the national number of chicks reared was 79.96 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.1% [33]. - **Culled Chicken Culling**: In June, due to low - price losses, the culling of chickens increased, and the average age of chickens dropped by 30 days to around 500 days. However, since July, the market's bullish sentiment has gradually increased, the culling volume has stagnated, the price difference between old chickens and white chickens has remained high, and the average age of chickens has returned to the relatively high level of 507 days [36]. - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of July, the inventory of laying hens at sample points was 1.356 billion, higher than previously expected, an increase of 0.16 billion compared to June and a 6.2% increase compared to 1.277 billion in the same period last year. Assuming normal culling, the inventory will continue to increase in the future, with a peak expected in October this year at 1.367 billion, a 0.08% increase compared to the current level. Although it will decline thereafter, it will still remain high, indicating an overall oversupply in the future [38][41] 3.4. Demand Side - After the plum - rain season, inventory consumption has improved. Subsequently, with the pre - holiday stocking for the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, egg consumption is expected to gradually emerge from the shadow of the off - season in the first half of the year. After the pulsed stocking ends, the consumption peak in the second half of the year will gradually arrive [46] 3.5. Cost and Profit - The cost has slightly increased but is still low compared to the same period last year. In terms of profitability, it is at a seasonally low level [51] 3.6. Inventory Side - With the start of spot consumption, the inventory pressure has been relieved, and there is a seasonal downward trend. However, it is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period last year [56]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite entering the traditional demand peak season for eggs, egg prices are declining due to high supply pressure, with the main futures contract hitting a new low of 3478 yuan per 500 kg [1][3] - As of July 31, the number of laying hens in China reached 135.6 million, continuing to increase, which contributes to the bearish market sentiment [3][4] - Analysts indicate that the current low prices are driven by basis adjustment, with the near-month contract basis previously at a historical low of nearly -1000 yuan per 500 kg, leading to increased selling pressure in the futures market [3][4] Group 2 - The price ratio between culling chickens and egg prices has been rising since February, indicating insufficient culling efforts, with the number of old chickens culled reaching a historical low for the same period since 2020 [4][5] - The current structure of laying hens shows a low proportion of old chickens waiting to be culled, and the recovery of breeding profitability has reduced the willingness to cull, which may suppress egg prices [4][6] - The seasonal demand for eggs is expected to lead to a limited rebound in prices, with market expectations for peak prices around 3.8 yuan per jin, influenced by the overlapping Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays [6]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The egg market has seen the futures price decline again this week. The current high egg - laying hen inventory and the pressure from newly - opened egg - laying hens lead to sufficient egg supply. The spot market price is continuously below expectations. However, high temperatures in many regions have reduced the egg - laying rate of hens, alleviating short - term supply pressure. Terminal demand is gradually picking up, and there is still an expectation of price increase among farmers. Affected by the bearish sentiment in the commodity market and high inventory, the near - month contracts are weakly adjusted, while the far - month contracts are significantly more resistant to decline. The report suggests a light - position trial of going long on far - month contracts [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Trend**: This week, the egg 09 contract closed at 3484 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 144 yuan/500 kilograms from the previous week [8]. - **Outlook**: High inventory and low - expected spot prices coexist with reduced egg - laying rates due to high temperatures and improving demand. Near - month contracts are weak, and far - month contracts are more resistant [8]. - **Strategy**: Light - position trial of going long on far - month contracts [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The egg futures 09 contract declined again. The position volume was 226,040 lots, a decrease of 13,679 lots from the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 37,010, with a slight increase in net short position compared to last week [14]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the registered egg warehouse receipts were 22 [18]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was 3173 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 214 yuan/500 kilograms from the previous week. The basis between the active 09 contract futures price and the spot average price was - 311 yuan/ton [24]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread of eggs was - 135 yuan/500 kilograms, at a relatively low level in the same period [28]. - **Related Commodity Spot Prices**: As of July 31, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.45 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of monitored vegetables was 4.41 yuan/kg [34]. 3.3 Industry Chain - **Supply Side**: As of June 30, 2025, the national egg - laying hen inventory index was 111.91, a month - on - month increase of 0.92%. The national new - chick index was 76.07, a month - on - month decrease of 28.76% [40]. - **Egg - laying Hen Elimination**: As of June 30, 2025, the national eliminated egg - laying hen index was 104.09, a month - on - month decrease of 4.22%. The national elimination age of hens was 501 days [45]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of July 31, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2404.02 yuan/ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 2920 yuan/ton [49]. - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of July 25, 2025, the egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.06 yuan/hen, and the average price of egg - laying hen compound feed was 2.72 yuan/kg [56]. - **Egg - laying Hen Chick and Eliminated Hen Prices**: As of July 25, 2025, the average price of egg - laying hen chicks in the main production areas was 3.88 yuan/chick, and the average price of eliminated hens was 11.28 yuan/kg [62]. - **Egg Exports**: In May 2025, China's egg export volume was 12,711.37 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.87% and a month - on - month decrease of 81.14 tons [66]. 3.4 Representative Company The report mentions the price - earnings ratio change of Xiaoming Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [68].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg spot market has rebounded significantly but is approaching historical涨幅, showing hesitation. The futures market, though rising less, remains in a premium structure. Near the delivery month, the near - month 08 contract will face selling pressure. It is recommended to buy the far - month 09 contract on dips and look for reverse spread opportunities [3]. - The supply side has high - level capacity, with recent new replenishment slowing down, previous replenishment starting to lay eggs, and the elimination of backward capacity slowing. The demand side has improved, but the marginal support is weakening, requiring new tourism and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking demand [3]. - The cost of feed and comprehensive breeding has slightly declined. Egg prices have returned above the feed cost, and profits have improved [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Egg futures ended their rebound last week and returned to a weak oscillation. The large increase in spot prices needs to be digested, and the premium structure of the futures is being repaired. The market is expected to enter a short - term correction phase [6]. 3.2 Spot Market - Last week, new egg products maintained a high - level oscillation, with the upward momentum slowing down and starting to correct. The current spot rebound is mainly driven by the sales areas. After the bad weather, stocking will provide some support, but the increase is limited. The market has risen from 2.4 yuan/jin to 3.2 yuan/jin, close to the average seasonal increase, and further upward movement requires new event drivers [14]. 3.3 Supply Side - New capacity: From June to August 2025, the newly opened production corresponds to the replenishment volume from February to April 2025, remaining at a high level and higher than the historical average [19]. - Elimination capacity: From June to August 2025, the normal elimination capacity corresponds to the replenishment volume from October 2023 to January 2024, with a relatively neutral available elimination volume [19]. - Laying - hen inventory: The inventory remains at a high level. New capacity is increasing steadily, new replenishment is slowing down, and the available elimination volume is decreasing steadily. The backward capacity is entering the active elimination stage, but the overall supply pressure still exists [19]. 3.4 Elimination End - The price of culled chickens is 5.76 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.24 yuan/jin. The elimination volume has decreased significantly, and the increase in price restricts the enthusiasm for elimination. The average elimination age is 502 days, remaining stable, and the overall age has returned to the normal range, with the "start - up rate" increasing steadily [22]. 3.5 Demand Side - Seasonally, it is the peak season for tourism and deep - processing demand. The inventory pressure in the production areas is not high, but high temperatures are reducing the laying rate and increasing costs. On the consumption side, after the rainy season, the tourism peak season has arrived, and overall demand has improved [24]. - Vegetable prices are rising due to high - temperature weather, supporting egg prices. Pork prices are oscillating at a high level, and the substitution effect on eggs is not obvious. Other meat prices have strengthened recently [26]. 3.6 Cost and Profit - Cost: Corn prices are running at a high level, and soybean meal prices are falling steadily. The overall cost is oscillating, with the current feed cost at about 2.5 yuan/jin and the comprehensive breeding cost at about 2.8 yuan/jin [29]. - Profit: Egg prices have recently returned above the feed cost, but the overall comprehensive breeding profit is still in the red, showing a seasonal bottom - bouncing [30]. 3.7 Capital and Market Sentiment - Capital is at a high level, and market competition has intensified. Bears believe that the high - level capacity, seasonal suppression, and the premium of the futures over the spot indicate further downward space. Bulls believe that the valuation is low and the seasonal trend is about to turn positive, making it a good time to buy. Currently, near the delivery month, the bears are winning [33]. 3.8 Basis and Spread - Basis: The basis is negative, and the overall futures is at a premium. The basis is currently running at a low level, waiting for the basis to strengthen during the peak season [35]. - Spread: In the future, as the cycle capacity declines, reverse spreads should be the main strategy [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High temperatures have led to a decline in egg production rates, alleviating supply pressure. Combined with market stocking sentiment, the spot price of eggs bottomed out earlier and rose more than expected, causing short - sellers in the near - term contracts to exit. However, with a high premium, long - sellers still lack confidence. In the short term, the near - term contracts will fluctuate mainly following the spot price, lacking a clear trend. For contracts after September, the earlier bottoming of the spot price further reduces the sentiment for culling hens. With limited cost changes and an expected continuous increase in theoretical supply, the upside space for the spot price is limited, and the high - price period is expected to be short. It is recommended to continue to look for short - selling opportunities after price rebounds [12][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: Last week, domestic egg prices rose and then stabilized. High temperatures reduced egg production rates, leading to a shortage of large - sized eggs. Traders were bullish, and market purchasing enthusiasm was high, but cautious sentiment after the price increase led to price stabilization. The increase in egg prices was greater than that of costs, and profitability returned to a balanced state. For example, the price of large - sized eggs in Heishan increased by 0.3 yuan to 2.9 yuan/jin, in Guantao by 0.18 yuan to 3.18 yuan/jin, and in Huilongguan by 0.37 yuan to 3.39 yuan/jin, while in Dongguan, it decreased by 0.11 yuan to 3.15 yuan/jin. With high inventory of laying hens, the supply is sufficient, but high - quality large - sized eggs are in short supply. After consecutive price increases, terminal sentiment has become cautious. Consumption is in the traditional peak season, and it is expected that next week's demand will be weak first and then strong, with egg prices likely to rise again after a small decline [12][21]. - **Replenishment and Culling**: Due to low costs, the number of replenished chickens has been high since the second half of last year. However, since May, the monthly replenishment volume has decreased due to increased breeding losses and seasonal factors. In June, it further dropped to 81.5 million, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% and a month - on - month decrease of 9.4%. In June, low - price losses led to a large - scale culling of hens, and the average age of hens dropped to around 500 days. But since July, the bullish sentiment in the market has increased, culling has stagnated, and the age of hens has returned to the current high level of 506 days [12]. - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of June, the inventory of laying hens at sample points was 1.34 billion, a month - on - month increase of 60 million and a year - on - year increase of 6.8%, in line with expectations. Assuming normal culling, the inventory will continue to increase, peaking at 1.355 billion in November this year, a 1.1% increase from the current level, indicating an overall oversupply in the future [12]. - **Demand**: After the plum - rain season, inventory consumption has improved. With the approach of the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, egg consumption is expected to gradually emerge from the off - season in the first half of the year. After the pulsed stocking, the consumption peak in the second half of the year will gradually arrive [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to short - sell on price rebounds for contracts 09, 10, and 11, with a profit - to - loss ratio of 2:1, a recommended cycle of 1 - 2 months, and a core driving logic related to inventory, spot price, cost, demand, and culling. For arbitrage, no strategy is recommended at present [15]. 3.2 Spot - Futures Market - **Spot Price Trend**: The spot price of eggs rose and then stabilized last week. High temperatures affected production, and large - sized eggs were in short supply, driving up prices. After the increase, cautious sentiment led to price stabilization. Although the supply of laying hens is high, high - quality large - sized eggs are scarce. Consumption is in the peak season, and it is expected that demand will first weaken and then strengthen, with egg prices likely to rise again after a small decline [21]. - **Basis and Spread**: After the spot price strengthened, it lost its upward momentum. The current basis is still low, putting pressure on near - term contracts, and the spread between months is suitable for reverse arbitrage [24]. - **Culled Hen Price**: Previously, more old hens were culled, and the price difference between white chickens and culled hens decreased significantly. Recently, due to the expected price increase in the peak season, culling has stagnated [27]. - **Chick and Pullet Price**: No specific analysis in the text. 3.3 Supply Side - **Egg - Laying Hen Replenishment**: Due to low costs, the number of replenished chickens has been high since the second half of last year. However, since May, the monthly replenishment volume has decreased due to increased breeding losses and seasonal factors. In June, it further dropped to 81.5 million, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% and a month - on - month decrease of 9.4% [34]. - **Culled Hen Exit**: In June, low - price losses led to a large - scale culling of hens, and the average age of hens dropped to around 500 days. But since July, the bullish sentiment in the market has increased, culling has stagnated, and the age of hens has returned to the current high level of 506 days [37]. - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of June, the inventory of laying hens at sample points was 1.34 billion, a month - on - month increase of 60 million and a year - on - year increase of 6.8%, in line with expectations. Assuming normal culling, the inventory will continue to increase, peaking at 1.355 billion in November this year, a 1.1% increase from the current level, indicating an overall oversupply in the future [39][42]. 3.4 Demand Side - **Sales Volume in Sales Areas**: After the plum - rain season, inventory consumption has improved. With the approach of the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, egg consumption is expected to gradually emerge from the off - season in the first half of the year. After the pulsed stocking, the consumption peak in the second half of the year will gradually arrive [47]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - Cost has increased slightly but is still low compared to the same period last year. Profitability is at a relatively low seasonal level [52]. 3.6 Inventory Side - With the start of spot consumption, inventory pressure has eased, showing a seasonal downward trend, but it is still relatively high compared to the same period [57].

Core Insights - The price of eggs has shown a strong upward trend, increasing from 2.89 yuan per jin to 3.31 yuan per jin, representing a cumulative increase of nearly 15% during the period from July 17 to July 24 [1] Price Overview - As of July 24, egg prices in various regions are as follows: - Yantai, Shandong: 6.90 yuan per jin - Yancheng, Jiangsu: 6.70 yuan per jin - Shanghai: 6.90 yuan per jin - Fuzhou, Fujian: 7.00 yuan per jin - The futures market shows the main contract for eggs closing at 3636.00 yuan per 500 kg, with a slight decrease of 0.27% [2] Market Conditions - As of July 17, the average age of broiler chickens is 505 days, which is one day later than the previous week and four days earlier than the previous month - The monthly inventory of laying hens as of the end of June was approximately 1.34 billion, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.4% and a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [3] Analysis Perspective - According to Hualian Futures research, high temperatures have led to a decline in egg production rates, with farmers showing strong price support sentiment - The market is experiencing smooth sales as southern regions enter the plum rain season, leading to tighter supply in some areas and a noticeable increase in market prices - However, there are no favorable demand signals, and in the medium term, the high inventory of laying hens suggests ample supply, with short-term pressure levels around 3713 yuan [4]