Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Coal Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model estimates monthly revenue and profit growth rates for the coal industry based on changes in price and capacity factors[10][15] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The pricing mechanism is determined by the last price index of the previous month, which sets the sales price for the next month[10] 2. The model uses year-on-year changes in price factors and capacity factors to estimate revenue and profit growth rates on a monthly basis[10] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to track and predict industry profitability trends, but it is sensitive to price fluctuations and external shocks[15] 2. Model Name: Hog Supply-Demand Gap Estimation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model predicts the supply-demand gap for hogs six months in advance based on the relationship between sow inventory and hog slaughter rates[16][17] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model assumes a stable proportional relationship between quarterly hog slaughter and sow inventory lagged by six months[16] 2. The formula for the slaughter coefficient is: $ \text{Slaughter Coefficient} = \frac{\text{Quarterly Hog Slaughter}}{\text{Sow Inventory (Lagged 6 Months)}} $[16] 3. The potential supply six months later is calculated as: $ \text{Potential Supply (t+6)} = \text{Sow Inventory (t)} \times \text{Slaughter Coefficient (t+6)} $[17] 4. The potential demand six months later is estimated using historical quarterly slaughter data[17] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies hog price cycles but relies heavily on the accuracy of historical slaughter coefficients[17] 3. Model Name: Steel Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model predicts monthly profit growth and per-ton profitability for the steel industry by integrating steel prices and raw material costs[19] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model incorporates comprehensive steel prices and costs of raw materials such as iron ore, coke, pulverized coal, and scrap steel[19] 2. Monthly profit growth rates and per-ton profitability are calculated based on these inputs[19] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a detailed view of profitability trends but may not fully capture external demand-side factors[23] 4. Model Name: Glass and Cement Industry Profitability Tracking Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model tracks profitability changes in the glass and cement industries using price and cost indicators, and generates allocation signals based on these changes[25] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model monitors price and cost indicators to assess profitability trends[25] 2. It incorporates manufacturing PMI and real estate sales data to evaluate macroeconomic impacts on industry expectations[25] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is useful for identifying short-term profitability trends but may be limited by the lag in macroeconomic data updates[26] 5. Model Name: Refining and Oilfield Services Profitability Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model estimates profit growth and cracking spreads for the refining industry based on changes in fuel prices, crude oil prices, and new drilling activity[27] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model calculates profit growth rates using changes in fuel and crude oil prices[27] 2. Cracking spreads are derived from the difference between product prices and raw material costs[27] 3. Allocation signals are generated based on oil price trends and drilling activity[27] - **Model Evaluation**: The model captures key profitability drivers but may not fully account for geopolitical risks affecting oil prices[34][35] --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. Coal Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Excess Return**: The coal industry underperformed the Wind All-A Index by -9.8% in August 2025[10] 2. Hog Supply-Demand Gap Estimation Model - **Supply-Demand Balance**: The potential supply for Q1 2026 is estimated at 19,380 million heads, while the demand is forecasted at 19,476 million heads, indicating a slightly tight balance[18] 3. Steel Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Profit Growth**: The steel industry is predicted to achieve positive year-on-year profit growth in August 2025[23] 4. Glass and Cement Industry Profitability Tracking Model - **Glass Industry**: Profit margins continued to decline year-on-year in August 2025, but the rate of decline narrowed[26] - **Cement Industry**: Profitability slightly declined year-on-year in August 2025[26] 5. Refining and Oilfield Services Profitability Model - **Refining Industry**: Profit growth for August 2025 is predicted to be positive[28] - **Oilfield Services**: Oil prices in August 2025 were lower than the previous year, and drilling activity remained stable, leading to a neutral allocation signal[35]

Core Viewpoint - The company is currently in the research and development phase of its "multi-functional lightweight new energy vehicle glass products" project, which has not yet been applied to any automotive brands [1] Group 1 - The project aims to utilize the company's core technology in glass deep processing to reduce the thickness and weight of automotive glass while ensuring its strength [1] - Special forming techniques are being employed to enhance yield rates and reduce production costs [1] - The automotive skylight glass being developed includes solar power generation capabilities, allowing for adjustments in light transmittance through the spacing of the photovoltaic cells [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Nanbo A, has confirmed its overseas business primarily involves engineering glass, photovoltaic glass, and float glass [1] Group 1 - The company is actively engaged in international markets with a focus on engineering glass [1] - The photovoltaic glass segment is a significant part of the company's overseas operations [1] - Float glass is also a key product in the company's export portfolio [1]

Group 1 - The company, Nanbo A, stated on September 1 that as of August 20, 2025, the total number of shareholders is 129,768 [1]

Group 1 - The company, Nanbo A, announced a share buyback plan, having repurchased approximately 35.53 million A-shares and 18.22 million B-shares, totaling 1.7504% of its total share capital as of August 29, 2025 [1] - For the first half of 2025, the revenue composition of Nanbo A was as follows: glass industry accounted for 90.48%, electronic and display glass industry 8.71%, solar energy industry 2.61%, undistributed 2.42%, and internal offsets -4.22% [1] - As of the report date, the market capitalization of Nanbo A was 14.6 billion yuan [1]

东海期货：预计玻璃短期区间震荡 上周的基本面数据来看，供应方面，玻璃产量持稳，开工率产量环比增加，产线开工条数环比增加，供 应端整体微增；需求方面，终端地产行业形势依旧维持弱势，需求难有起色，下游深加工订8月中旬环 比增加，整体需求仍是持稳的格局；利润方面，利润略有增加；整体玻璃供应持稳，需求难有大的增 量，地产消息的提振下，预计短期区间震荡。 国信期货：短期玻璃价格震荡为主 供给端，玻璃日熔量15.96万吨，环比上周持平。生产利润方面，天然气制玻璃利润-188.41元/吨，煤制 玻璃利润109.46元/吨，石油焦制玻璃利润25.66元/吨。需求端，周度LOW-E玻璃开工率环比持平，但企 业订单情况不佳。截至2025年8月28日，全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存6256.6万重箱，环比减少104万重 箱。玻璃基本面变化不大，短期玻璃价格震荡为主。 9月1日盘中，玻璃期货主力合约遭遇一波急速下挫，最低下探至1125.00元。截止发稿，玻璃主力合约 报1137.00元，跌幅3.07%。 玻璃期货主力跌超3%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 东海期货 预计玻璃短期区间震荡 国信期货 短期玻璃价格震 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass investment view: Bearish [3] - Soda ash investment view: Neutral [4] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The anti - involution logic is becoming long - term, but the weak reality remains, and the market sentiment fluctuates sharply. The glass market has poor fundamentals and prices are under pressure. The soda ash market has a high supply, neutral demand, cost support, but large near - month inventory and delivery pressure. It is recommended to focus on cash - and - carry arbitrage [3][4][42] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Main Views and Strategy Overview Glass - Supply: Bearish. Daily output is stable this week, with the industry start - up rate slightly increasing, and supply may increase slightly next week [3] - Demand: Neutral. There is short - term resilience, but overall demand is under pressure in the off - season [3] - Inventory: Neutral. Inventory is being depleted, with enterprise inventory at 62.566 million heavy cases, a month - on - month decrease of 1.04 million heavy cases, a month - on - month decline of 1.63%, and a year - on - year decline of 11.31%. The inventory days are 26.7 days, 0.5 days less than the previous period [3] - Basis/Spread: Neutral. This week, the basis and the 09 - 01 spread both declined [3] - Valuation: Neutral. Current prices are mainly under pressure, but costs provide support [3] - Macro and Policy: Neutral. The anti - involution logic is long - term, but the weak reality persists, and overall sentiment fluctuates sharply [3] - Investment View: Bearish. Fundamentals are poor, and prices are under pressure [3] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: None; Arbitrage: Cash - and - carry arbitrage; Risk concerns: Daily melting volume, production and sales [3] Soda Ash - Supply: Neutral. Supply decreased this week, but is expected to increase next week as previously shut - down enterprises resume production [4] - Demand: Neutral. Short - term direct demand is stable, with an increase in photovoltaic daily melting volume, but terminal demand is difficult to improve, and there is still negative feedback pressure [4] - Inventory: Neutral. Inventory decreased slightly, with total manufacturer inventory at 186750 tons, a decrease of 4330 tons from last Thursday, a decline of 2.27% [4] - Basis/Spread: Neutral. This week, the basis declined, and the 09 - 01 spread fluctuated downward [4] - Valuation: Neutral. Futures prices adjusted downward, but costs provide support [4] - Macro and Policy: Neutral. The anti - involution logic continues, mainly affecting far - month contracts, and sentiment fluctuates sharply [4] - Investment View: Neutral. The weak reality continues, inventory is high, and sentiment is volatile [4] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: None; Arbitrage: Cash - and - carry arbitrage; Risk concerns: Soda ash plant production, glass production and sales, and domestic and overseas macro - policy disturbances [4] 2. Futures and Spot Market Review Glass - Price: This week, prices were under pressure. The main contract closed at 1182 (+9), and the Shahe spot price was 1060 (-12) [6] Soda Ash - Price: This week, prices declined. The main contract closed at 1296 (-28), and the Shahe spot price was 1211 (+4) [12] Spread/Basis - Soda ash: The 09 - 01 spread fluctuated downward, and the basis weakened [24] - Glass: The 09 - 01 spread fluctuated downward, and the basis weakened [24] 3. Supply - Demand Fundamental Data Glass - Supply: Stable. This week, the daily output of national float glass was 159,600 tons, the same as on the 21st. The industry start - up rate was 75.68%, an increase of 0.34 percentage points compared to the 21st. The industry capacity utilization rate was 79.78%, the same as on the 21st. Glass production profit fluctuated [27] - Demand: Under pressure in the off - season. Downstream deep - processing orders are weak, real - estate mid - and back - end completion data is poor, but inventory is being depleted [32] Soda Ash - Supply: Output decreased temporarily. This week, soda ash output was 719,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 52,300 tons, a decline of 6.78%. Alkali plant profit decreased [34][35] - Demand: Neutral. Overall demand is neutral, short - term direct demand is stable, and photovoltaic daily melting volume has rebounded, but terminal demand is poor, and there is still negative feedback pressure on prices. Inventory decreased slightly [38]

| | | | | | 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/9/1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | 2025/8/22 | 2025/8/28 | | 2025/8/29 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 2025/8/22 | 2025/8/28 | | 2025/8/29 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全 5mm大 板 | 1143.0 | 1130.0 | 1130.0 | -13.0 | 0.0 | FG09合约 | 997.0 | 970.0 | 996.0 | -1.0 | 26.0 | | 沙河长城 5mm大板 | 1121.0 | 1102.0 | 1130.0 | 9.0 | 28.0 | FG01合约 | 1173.0 | 1174.0 | 1182.0 | 9.0 | 8.0 | | 沙河5mm大 板低价 | 1121.0 | 1102.0 | 1130.0 | 9. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The glass market may experience a phased recovery in demand in September, and the market is expected to rebound. It is recommended to buy on dips for the glass futures in September, consider out - of - the - money options for near - month contracts, and focus on the breakthrough situation of the 1150 - 1200 range for the main 01 contract [2][85]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Performance**: In August, glass futures declined smoothly. The real - world demand was poor, the mid - stream inventory of futures and spot was at a high level, and some 08 warehouse receipts were re - sold, resulting in greater delivery pressure for the 09 contract and the main reason for the decline of the August futures [2][85]. - **Spot Prices**: As of August 29, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,140 yuan/ton in North China (unchanged), 1,090 yuan/ton in Central China (unchanged), and 1,200 yuan/ton in East China (+10). The glass 09 contract closed at 1,182 yuan/ton last Friday, up 281 yuan from the previous week [13][14]. - **Basis and Spread**: As of August 29, the basis of the glass 01 contract was - 142 yuan/ton (- 11), and the 01 - 05 spread was - 92 yuan/ton (+4). The difference between soda ash and glass futures prices was 114 yuan/ton (- 39) [15][19]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Pattern - **Profit**: The profit of glass production using different processes is close to the break - even point. The cost of natural - gas - based process is 1,580 yuan/ton (- 6), with a gross profit of - 380 yuan/ton (+16); the cost of coal - gas - based process is 1,156 yuan/ton (- 11), with a gross profit of - 16 yuan/ton (+11); the cost of petroleum - coke - based process is 1,094 yuan/ton (- 6), with a gross profit of - 4 yuan/ton (+6) [22][25]. - **Supply**: The daily melting volume of glass was 158,855 tons per day last Friday (+500), and there were 224 production lines in operation. The subsequent adjustment of production lines is not expected to be significant [26][27]. - **Inventory**: The national glass manufacturers' inventory decreased slightly. The inventory in Central China decreased significantly due to increased replenishment demand from the mid - and downstream, while the inventory in North China increased slightly as the replenishment rhythm of surrounding processing plants slowed down [2][85]. - **Deep - processing**: On August 29, the comprehensive production - sales ratio of float glass was 96% (unchanged), the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 48.1% (unchanged), and the available order days for glass deep - processing in mid - August were 9.65 days (+0.1) [37]. - **Demand - Automobile**: In July, China's automobile production was 2.591 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 203,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 305,000 vehicles; sales were 2.593 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 311,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 331,000 vehicles. The retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles were 987,000 vehicles, with a penetration rate of 54% [48]. - **Demand - Real Estate**: In July, China's real - estate completion area was 24.6739 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 29%; new construction area was 48.4168 million square meters (- 15%); construction area was 54.0957 million square meters (- 16%); and commercial housing sales area was 57.0945 million square meters (- 8%). From August 23 to August 29, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.48 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 18% and a year - on - year decrease of 7%. The real - estate development investment in July was 692.24 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17% [49][55]. - **Import and Export**: As of June, China's float glass imports were 521,000 weight boxes (a year - on - year increase of 79%), and exports were 1.9204 million weight boxes (a year - on - year increase of 161%) [57]. - **Cost - Soda Ash**: The spot price of soda ash increased significantly. The inventory of soda ash in factories decreased, and the production decreased. The apparent consumption of heavy soda ash improved, and the production - sales ratio increased [59][82]. 3.3 Investment Strategy - **Main Logic**: The glass futures declined in August due to poor demand and high inventory. The subsequent demand may have a phased recovery, considering the traditional peak season and positive macro - sentiment, so the market is expected to rebound. The forces of both long and short sides of the 01 contract have increased [2][85]. - **Operation Strategy**: Buy on dips for the glass futures in September. Consider out - of - the money options for near - month contracts and focus on the breakthrough situation of the 1150 - 1200 range for the main 01 contract [2][85].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market cooled last Friday, and the prices of finished steel products declined slightly. The demand for finished steel products is clearly weak, the profits of steel mills are gradually shrinking, and the weak characteristics of the market are becoming more prominent. If the demand cannot be effectively improved in the future, the prices may continue to decline. The raw material end is more resilient than the finished product end, and attention should be paid to the potential impact of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions. It is recommended to continuously track the progress of terminal demand recovery and the support of the cost end for the prices of finished products [4]. - The prices of ferroalloys are continuing to extrude the over - valued part caused by the "anti - involution" expectation. The market is gradually shifting from trading expectations to trading the real situation. The continuous accumulation of inventory at the steel and hot - rolled coil ends makes the market worried about the demand in the peak season. The prices of the black sector may continue to be under pressure in the future [12]. - The prices of industrial silicon are pulled down by the weak reality. The over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand problems have not changed fundamentally. The supply pressure exceeds the demand support, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term. Polysilicon continues the pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation", and the price fluctuates due to the influence of news, with high uncertainty [16][18]. - The glass market is running stably, with inventory pressure decreasing but demand not significantly improved. The price adjustment space is limited, and it is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term. The price of soda ash is oscillating, and in the long term, the price center may gradually rise, but the increase space is restricted due to the weak demand [20][21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Information**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3090 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton (-1.24%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 7840 tons to 198,897 tons, and the position decreased by 92,457 lots to 1.05571 million lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai aggregated prices decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3346 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton (-1.15%). The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 24,760 tons, and the position increased by 387,729 lots to 1.166633 million lots. The Lechong and Shanghai aggregated prices decreased by 20 - 30 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The production of rebar increased, demand improved slightly but remained weak overall, and inventory continued to accumulate. For hot - rolled coils, both supply and demand declined, and inventory continued to increase. The overall production of steel is high, and the demand is insufficient, putting strong pressure on steel prices [4]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Information**: The closing price of the iron ore main contract (I2601) was 787.50 yuan/ton, with a change of -0.38% (-3.00), and the position increased by 1118 lots to 473,600 lots. The weighted position was 782,500 lots. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 779 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 40.43 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 4.88% [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The overseas iron ore shipping rhythm was stable. Australian shipping increased, Brazilian shipping decreased, and non - mainstream shipping decreased slightly. The near - end arrival volume decreased. The average daily hot metal production decreased, and the steel mill profitability continued to decline. Port inventory decreased slightly, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory decreased. The apparent demand of the five major steel products continued to rise, but the inventory accumulation rate did not slow down significantly. The supply pressure is not significant during the traditional shipping off - season of overseas mines, and attention should be paid to the future shipping progress. The price is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [7]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position Information**: On August 29, the manganese silicon main contract (SM509) fell 0.86% to 5792 yuan/ton, and the Tianjin spot price was 5650 yuan/ton, with a premium of 48 yuan/ton over the futures. The ferrosilicon main contract (SF509) fell 1.03% to 5566 yuan/ton, and the Tianjin spot price was 5750 yuan/ton, with a premium of 184 yuan/ton over the futures. Last week, the prices of both showed a downward trend [9][10][11]. - **Fundamentals and Trading Suggestions**: The "anti - involution" sentiment in the market has subsided, and the prices are moving closer to the fundamentals. The continuous accumulation of inventory at the steel end makes the market worried about the demand in the peak season. The over - capacity pattern of manganese silicon has not changed, and production is still increasing. It is expected to remain weak before mid - October. The supply - demand of ferrosilicon has no obvious contradiction, and attention should be paid to downstream demand changes. For speculative trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities [12][13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position Information**: The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract (SI2511) was 8390 yuan/ton, down 2.10% (-180), and the position increased by 15,278 lots to 524,375 lots. The spot prices of different grades decreased. The closing price of the polysilicon main contract (PS2511) was 49,555 yuan/ton, down 0.22% (-110), and the position decreased by 535 lots to 320,807 lots. The spot prices of different types of polysilicon remained unchanged [15][17]. - **Fundamentals and Price Expectations**: The over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand problems of industrial silicon have not changed. The supply pressure exceeds the demand support, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term, with a range of 8100 - 9000 yuan/ton. Polysilicon continues the pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation", and the price fluctuates due to news, with high uncertainty. The price is expected to have fluctuations, and the support level is at 47,000 yuan/ton [16][18]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Inventory Information**: The spot prices of glass in Shahe and Central China remained unchanged. As of August 28, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 62.566 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 1.63% month - on - month and 11.31% year - on - year, and the inventory days decreased by 0.5 days. The spot price of soda ash was 1180 yuan, down 25 yuan from the previous day. As of August 28, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8675 million tons, a decrease of 1.09% [20][21]. - **Price Expectations**: The glass market is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term, and the valuation should not be overly underestimated. In the long term, it follows the macro - sentiment, and the price may rise if there are substantial policies in the real estate sector. The price of soda ash is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the increase space is restricted by weak demand [20][21].