诺唯赞 20250410 2025-04-11 摘要 • 诺唯赞 2024 年生命科学业务营收达 10.3 亿元，国内收入增长 12%，海 外收入激增 122%，整体增长 19%，生物试剂出货量增长超 50%，海外 市场毛利率高达 81%，仪器设备毛利率接近 90%。 • 生物医药业务营收 1.8 亿元，虽技术服务下滑 30%，但 GLP-1 商业化进 展显著，一季度销售额近 5,000 万元，与多家头部客户建立稳定关系，预 示未来增长潜力。 • 诊断业务销售额同比下降 30%至 1.66 亿元，主要因收缩常规 POCT 产品 线，集中资源于呼吸道及 AD 领域，与迈瑞合作落地呼吸道产品商业化， AD 领域完成取证及初步商业化。 • 公司 2024 年归母净利润亏损 1,800 万元，同比减亏 5,000 万元，扣除股 份支付影响后经营性净利润略微盈利，通过控制费用、聚焦研发核心项目 提升运营效率。 • 2024 年生命科学板块净利润约 1.8 亿元，诊断业务亏损 1.2 亿元，主要 因 AD 试剂和仪器研发投入，微流控业务因尚未商业化，研发投入近 6,000 万元。 诺唯赞在生命科学业务方面取得了哪些具体成 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) due to exceeding profit expectations and accelerating global expansion [5]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 94.22 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 51.8%, with a significant reduction in losses to 94.63 million RMB [6]. - The company's product revenue is projected to reach 82.3 billion RMB, a 43.6% increase year-on-year, with licensing revenue doubling to 1.1 billion RMB [6]. - The strategic goal includes achieving 20 billion RMB in product revenue by 2027 and entering five pipelines into global Phase III clinical trials by 2030 [6]. - The company is focusing on oncology through an "IO+ADC" strategy, expanding indications for existing drugs and introducing high-potential pipelines [6]. - The cardiovascular and metabolic fields are expected to emerge as a second growth curve, with key products receiving approvals and entering the market [6]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 117.84 billion RMB, 143.01 billion RMB, and 192.31 billion RMB respectively, with growth rates of 25.08%, 21.35%, and 34.48% [7]. - The net profit for 2025 is forecasted at 759 million RMB, with a staggering growth rate of 901.92% compared to the previous year [7]. - The company's reasonable equity value is estimated at 95.7 billion HKD, based on a DCF method with a perpetual growth rate of 3% and a WACC of 8.57% [6].

Revenue and Profit - The total operating revenue of Baiotai (688177) in 2024 was 743 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.44% compared to 705 million yuan in 2023 [1] - However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased from -395 million yuan in 2023 to -510 million yuan in 2024, a decline of 29.34% [1] - The non-recurring net profit also worsened, dropping from -472 million yuan in 2023 to -556 million yuan in 2024, a decrease of 17.76% [1] Quarterly Data - The performance in the fourth quarter of 2024 was particularly weak, with total operating revenue of 162 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 33.65% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the fourth quarter was -145 million yuan, a staggering decline of 1073.85% [2] - The non-recurring net profit for the fourth quarter was -151 million yuan, down 189.16% year-on-year [2] Costs and Expenses - In 2024, the proportion of the three expenses (financial, selling, and administrative expenses) to total revenue significantly increased from 29.47% in 2023 to 38.48% in 2024, an increase of 30.59% [3] - Selling expenses rose by 39.42% year-on-year, primarily due to increased marketing costs [3] - Administrative expenses increased by 5.24% year-on-year, mainly due to higher employee compensation [3] - Financial expenses surged by 156.17% year-on-year, largely due to increased bank loan interest costs [3] Profitability - The gross profit margin was 69.11%, a decrease of 4.77 percentage points compared to 2023 [4] - The net profit margin was -68.67%, a reduction of 22.67 percentage points from the previous year [4] - This indicates a low added value of products or services after deducting all costs [4] Cash Flow and Debt Situation - Despite a year-on-year increase of 76.72% in cash and cash equivalents, reaching 290 million yuan, the company still needs to monitor its cash flow situation [5] - The net cash flow from operating activities was -0.13 yuan per share, an improvement from -1.11 yuan per share in 2023, but still negative [5] - Interest-bearing liabilities increased from 483 million yuan in 2023 to 629 million yuan in 2024, a rise of 30.24%, with an interest-bearing asset-liability ratio reaching 28.5% [5] Summary - Overall, Baiotai's financial performance in 2024 was poor, particularly in terms of profit and cash flow [6] - The company needs to closely monitor its cash flow and debt situation to ensure sustainable development in the future [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) due to important data catalyst nodes approaching and accelerated progress in the "new pipeline" [5] Core Views - The company is expected to experience significant revenue growth driven by the inclusion of its products in the medical insurance directory and the expansion of indications for its drugs [7] - The company has a strong innovation pipeline and increasing commercial clarity in overseas clinical trials, supporting the maintained "Buy" rating [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 34.19 billion, 55.98 billion, and 85.77 billion RMB respectively, with growth rates of 60.98%, 63.71%, and 53.23% [6][8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 24 million, 587 million, and 1.343 billion RMB for 2025-2027, with corresponding growth rates of 104.71%, 2323.13%, and 128.90% [6][8] - The company's reasonable equity value is calculated at 100.3 billion HKD based on a DCF method with a perpetual growth rate of 3% and WACC of 8.67% [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the proactive measures taken by various companies and institutions in the Chinese capital market to stabilize and enhance investor confidence amid market fluctuations, indicating a strong belief in the long-term growth of the Chinese economy. Group 1: Company Actions - China Electronics Technology Group announced a stock buyback exceeding 20 billion yuan, demonstrating confidence in the long-term economic outlook [1] - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. plans to repurchase shares worth no less than 40 billion yuan and up to 80 billion yuan for employee incentive plans [3] - Central Huijin, China Chengtong, and China Guoxin have also announced stock purchases to support the stability of the capital market [5] Group 2: Market Reactions - On April 7, following the Qingming Festival, Asian stock markets experienced declines, with significant drops in the Nikkei 225 and the KOSPI, leading to a collective pullback in A-shares [7] - The total trading volume in the market reached approximately 1.62 trillion yuan, an increase of 460 billion yuan from the previous trading day [7] - Analysts suggest that the A-share adjustment is primarily driven by overseas pessimism, with a potential overlap of easing policies between the US and China later this year [7] Group 3: Institutional Investment - Central Huijin has increased its holdings in exchange-traded funds (ETFs), indicating a commitment to maintaining market stability [10] - The trading volume of ETFs surged to 332.14 billion yuan, marking a significant increase of nearly 30% from the previous trading day [10][11] - Major ETFs, such as the Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF, recorded substantial trading volumes, with the highest reaching 243.15 billion yuan, the third-highest daily volume in its history [11] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Institutions are taking advantage of market volatility by increasing their positions in undervalued stocks, particularly in the consumer and healthcare sectors [14][17] - Analysts recommend focusing on sectors with lower correlation to tariff impacts, such as aerospace, animal health, and high-end manufacturing, as potential beneficiaries of policy changes [17]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant block trade of TEBIO on April 7, where 648,000 shares were traded at a price of 83.30 yuan, representing a premium of 14.99% over the closing price of the day [1][2] - The buyer of the block trade was GF Securities Co., Ltd., while the seller was Guojin Securities Co., Ltd. [1][2] - In the last three months, TEBIO has recorded a total of five block trades, with a cumulative transaction amount of 145 million yuan [1] Group 2 - TEBIO's latest closing price was 72.44 yuan, reflecting a decline of 7.54% on the day, with a turnover rate of 1.13% and a total trading volume of 336 million yuan [1] - Over the past five days, TEBIO's stock has decreased by 8.65%, with a total net outflow of funds amounting to 32.21 million yuan [1] - The latest margin financing balance for TEBIO is 339 million yuan, with a slight increase of 850,800 yuan over the past five days, representing a growth rate of 0.25% [2] Group 3 - Four institutions have provided ratings for TEBIO in the past five days, with the highest target price set at 87.04 yuan by Dongfang Securities [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of escalating trade conflicts on the supply chain of pharmaceuticals, particularly regarding the exemption of certain drugs from tariffs, which reflects the U.S.'s reliance on global pharmaceutical supply chains [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of international markets for Chinese pharmaceutical exports, with a projected export value of $107.96 billion in 2024, indicating a growth of 5.9% year-on-year [4] - The report discusses the potential changes in the supply landscape for blood products due to new tariffs, which may accelerate domestic substitution opportunities [6] - The report notes the ongoing evolution of raw material applications, particularly in the nicotine sector, as companies explore new production avenues [8] - The report indicates that the optimization of centralized procurement policies may alleviate pricing pressures on traditional pharmaceutical companies [10] - The report outlines advancements in CAR-T cell therapies, with significant sales growth and the potential for cost reductions in the future [12] Summary by Sections 1. Pharmaceutical Market Tracking - The pharmaceutical industry outperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.57 percentage points in the past week, ranking third among 31 primary industry indices [23] 2. Pharmaceutical Sector Trends and Valuation - The pharmaceutical sector's index has shown a 3.15% increase over the past month, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.20 percentage points [40] - The current PE (TTM) for the pharmaceutical sector is 31.25, which is below the historical average of 32.95 [45] 3. Recent Research Achievements - The report lists various deep-dive studies conducted by the research team, focusing on supply and demand dynamics in the blood products sector and the impact of policy support on inhalation drug markets [49] 4. Important Industry Policies and News - Recent policy updates include the release of the 2025 edition of the Pharmacopoeia of the People's Republic of China, which will take effect on October 1, 2025 [52] - Significant industry news includes the approval of new drug applications by major pharmaceutical companies, indicating ongoing innovation and market activity [54][55]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is "Positive" [3] Core Viewpoints - The chemical pharmaceutical sector has shown the highest growth among sub-sectors, driven by expectations around "centralized procurement optimization discussions" and the "Class B medical insurance catalog" [8] - The trade war environment is expected to enhance the market share of domestic blood products and high-end medical devices due to increased costs of foreign imports [8] - The report suggests a cautious approach for April, focusing on specific segments that may benefit from the trade war, such as domestic blood products and high-end medical devices [8] Summary by Sections Industry Weekly Viewpoints - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector's weekly return was 1.20%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 2.57%, ranking 3rd among 31 primary sub-indices [7] - The chemical pharmaceutical sub-sector had the highest weekly growth of 3.45%, while the medical services sector saw the largest decline of 2.12% [7][8] Industry Performance and Valuation - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector's recent one-month return was 2.94%, with a relative return of 3.63% against the CSI 300, ranking 10th among 31 primary sub-indices [9][18] - The current PE (TTM) for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector is 26.88 times, which is below the historical average of 30.99 times [14][15] Market Tracking - The chemical pharmaceutical sector has shown the largest growth over the past year, with a 16.51% increase, while the biological products sector has seen a decline of 11.36% [24][25] - The report highlights the potential for price increases in blood products due to supply and demand changes, particularly for domestic manufacturers [8] Focus on Individual Stocks - The report recommends focusing on specific companies in the blood products and high-end medical device sectors, such as Palin Bio, Tian Tan Bio, and Mindray Medical [8] - In the consumer healthcare sector, companies like Aier Eye Hospital and Yifeng Pharmacy are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of government stimulus policies [8] Industry and Company Dynamics - Recent policy developments include the approval of new medical service pricing for brain-computer interface technologies, indicating a growing focus on innovative medical solutions [40] - The report notes significant recent approvals for various pharmaceutical products, including those from companies like Jingxin Pharmaceutical and Antu Bio [41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [1] Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector shows higher certainty under the backdrop of the tariff war, with a focus on innovation and domestic substitution strategies [1][15] - The A-share pharmaceutical index has increased by 1.20% this week and 4.77% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 by 2.57% and 6.64% respectively [3][9] - The report highlights the approval of significant drugs in China, such as Roche's Ocrelizumab for multiple sclerosis and Novartis' Pluvicto for prostate cancer treatment [3][4] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The A-share pharmaceutical index has shown a weekly increase of 1.20% and a year-to-date increase of 4.77%, while the H-share biotech index has increased by 1.7% this week and 30.77% year-to-date [3][9] - Notable stock performances include Duorui Pharmaceutical (+56%), Oukang Pharmaceutical (+49%), and Weisi Medical (+31%) [3][9] Tariff Impact - The recent U.S. tariff exemptions for the pharmaceutical industry include drug formulations, active pharmaceutical ingredients, and plant extracts, indicating minimal impact on the sector [3][15] - The report notes that 90% of antiviral and antibiotic drugs consumed in the U.S. rely on imported active pharmaceutical ingredients, with a significant portion coming from India and China [15][16] Investment Strategy - Recommended investment focus areas include innovative drugs, blood products, research services, and medical devices, with a specific emphasis on domestic companies benefiting from tariff changes [10][16] - Companies to watch include Baijia Shenzhou, Kelun Pharmaceutical, and Shanghai Laisai in the innovative drug sector, and Shanghai Laisai and Boya Biological in blood products [10][16] R&D Developments - Over 200 Chinese innovative drugs are set to be showcased at the 2025 AACR conference, reflecting the growing international recognition of domestic innovations [3][18] - The report lists several key drugs and their respective companies that have received U.S. approvals, highlighting the advancements in the Chinese pharmaceutical sector [18][19]

Group 1 - The core point of the announcement is the update on the convertible bonds issued by Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co., Ltd., including the current conversion price and the changes in the company's total share capital due to bond conversions [1][2][4] - The company issued 20 million convertible bonds with a total fundraising amount of RMB 2 billion, with a face value of RMB 100 per bond, approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission [1][2] - The convertible bonds, named "Kangtai Zhuan 2," were listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on August 5, 2021, and the current conversion price is RMB 15.82 per share [2][4] Group 2 - As of March 31, 2025, the total number of convertible bonds remaining is 19,990,146, with a remaining convertible bond amount of RMB 1,999,014,600 [2] - The company's share capital structure shows a decrease in restricted shares from 235,537,028 to 231,096,718, while unrestricted shares increased from 881,390,709 to 885,831,169, resulting in a total share capital of 1,116,927,887 shares [2][4] - The changes in share capital are attributed to the recalculation of executive lock-up shares and the automatic lock-up of shares held by newly appointed directors and executives [2][4]