Group 1 - The article highlights four major signals that are expected to support the market as it opens for the Year of the Horse, including continuous policy support, strong consumer recovery, clear industry trends, and favorable external market conditions [4][6][9] - Policy measures are focused on equipment upgrades, consumer goods exchange programs, and significant support for new infrastructure, digital economy, and renewable energy sectors, which are expected to boost economic recovery [4] - Consumer spending has shown remarkable resilience, with record box office revenues during the Spring Festival, a doubling in travel bookings, and a nearly 500% increase in duty-free shopping in Hainan, alongside over 20% growth in dining and accommodation transactions [4] Group 2 - The article notes that the global market has been performing well, with significant gains in indices such as the Hang Seng Index and the Nikkei 225, which rose over 4%, creating a positive environment for the A-share market [6][7] - Commodity markets have also seen increases, with LME copper up 4%, London silver up 3%, and Brent crude oil rising 2.3%, providing support for cyclical sectors [7] Group 3 - The investment strategy for the Year of the Horse emphasizes a cautious approach, focusing on structural opportunities rather than broad market gains, with a prediction of a stable opening and active sector performance [9][10] - Four main investment themes are identified: the AI industry chain, semiconductors and advanced manufacturing, consumer recovery sectors, and cyclical resources, with AI being the strongest focus due to its recent performance [10][11][12] - The article advises against high-risk strategies, recommending a focus on core stocks within the identified themes and careful monitoring of key indicators such as trading volume and foreign capital inflows [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that global stock markets showed strong performance during the Spring Festival, with no significant risk events, and current market sentiment remains high, suggesting that A-shares are likely to enter a new upward phase post-holiday [1] Industry Allocation - The industry allocation continues to focus on a dual mainline strategy of "Technology + Resource Products" [1] - The technology mainline centers on AI, humanoid robots (core stocks), new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1] - The resource products mainline focuses on precious metals (core stocks), oil and petrochemicals, and basic chemicals (core stocks) [1] Key Sectors to Watch - Key sectors to pay attention to include: - Semiconductors - AI (optical communication, liquid cooling, electronic fabrics, high-end copper foil, etc.) - Machinery - Non-ferrous metals - Oil and petrochemicals - Basic chemicals - Power equipment (energy storage, ultra-high voltage, photovoltaics, solid-state batteries, etc.) - Innovative pharmaceuticals [1]

债 券 研 春节期间不可错过的事情 [Table_Authors] 唐元懋(分析师) 国内篇 本报告导读： 经济复苏节奏延续温和，呵护债市偏多环境，但需关注海外风险偏好回升带来的扰 动。 投资要点： 风险提示：流动性超预期收紧；经济修复大幅加速；债券供给放量。 | | | | | 0755-23976753 | | --- | --- | | | tangyuanmao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | | | 孙越(分析师) | | | 021-38031033 | | | sunyue6@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525080004 | | | 汤志宇(分析师) | | | 021-38031036 | | | tangzhiyu@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525070031 | | | 杜润琛(分析师) | | | 021-38031034 | | | durunchen@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525110004 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 央行视角下的货币财政协同与存款搬 ...

市场策略丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 春节后如何"抄作业"？——解析春晚亮点、AI 疑虑、关税和地缘风波 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 大类资产层面，美股止跌回升，黄金、石油强劲反弹。美国最高法院裁定关键关税措施无效， 显著提振全球风险偏好，推动美股反弹、韩股领涨；美伊等地缘局势紧张与政策转向预期推动 黄金与原油等大宗商品价格显著上涨。中国股市层面，春节期间，富时中国 A50 指数期货录得 上涨，而港股恒生科技指数走低。或受美联储偏鹰派纪要及互联网巨头"红包大战"影响，恒 生科技指数整体走低，但 AI、机器人等主题概念股逆市走高。期间，富时中国 A50 指数期货走 高，或意味着全球资本对中国权益市场节后行情保持乐观。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 戴清 李巍东 SAC：S0490524010002 SFC：BTR264 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 24 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_Summary2] 大类资产：美股止跌回升，黄金 ...

（原标题：美股前瞻 | 三大股指期货齐跌 特朗普关税不确定性席卷市场） 1. 2月23日(周一)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐跌。截至发稿，纳指期货现跌0.66%，标普500指数期 货跌0.46%，道指期货跌0.49%。 被美国最高法院裁定"非法"的关税完结在即! 15%全球新税无缝接棒。美国海关与边境保护局(CBP)表 示，将于周二美国东部时间凌晨12:01停止征收依据《国际紧急经济权力法》(IEEPA)实施的美国政府对 等关税举措——此举距美国最高法院宣告这些关税为"非法"性质征收已过去三天多。该政府机构在其货 物系统消息服务(CSMS)向托运人发布的消息中称，将自美东时间周二起停用与美国总统特朗普此前 IEEPA相关行政命令有关的所有关税政策代码。尽管在最高法院关税裁决公布之后，美国总统特朗普告 诉记者，美国政府不久后将在《1974年贸易法》第122条款下对全球征收15%的关税，但尚不清楚美国 政府是否需要退还已经征收的关税款项。 存储芯片巨头SK海力士：将扩大AI存储芯片产能以应对需求激增。在股价过去一年飙升逾四倍、创下 盈利纪录之际，SK海力士母公司SK集团董事长崔泰源承诺将显著扩大AI存储芯片产能， ...

Group 1: Macro Economy - The U.S. economy is projected to maintain a nominal growth rate of approximately 5% in 2025, with inflation contributing more than actual output growth, mirroring the 2024 landscape [3][13] - Capital expenditures by companies pursuing "super intelligence" are expected to strongly drive economic activity, supported by high-income asset holders and an aging population sustaining service-oriented consumer spending [3][13] - Corporate earnings are experiencing double-digit growth for the fifth consecutive quarter, a steady but unexciting growth rate that has been fully anticipated by investors [4][14] Group 2: Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve is expected to remain inactive throughout the first half of 2026, indicating a balanced economic state that does not require urgent adjustments [5][15] - Despite the resilience of the job market and inflation hovering above 2.5%, the Fed's stance reflects a clear "wait-and-see" approach [5][15] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The S&P 500 index is experiencing unprecedented stagnation, with over 40% of trading days in the past two months hovering around 6900 points, a level first reached on October 28, 2025 [2][12] - Approximately 60% of individual stocks have outperformed the S&P 500, indicating a healthy market breadth, although historically, such a pattern does not typically accompany significant index gains [7][16] - The equal-weighted S&P 500 has risen by 6.4% this year, while the "Magnificent 7" tech giants have collectively declined by 5% [16][18] Group 4: Diversification and Investment Strategies - Diversification is currently providing excess returns for investors as the S&P 500 seeks direction [18] - The narrow trading range is seen as beneficial, weakening the conviction of both bulls and bears, prompting a reassessment of assumptions [18] Group 5: Key Catalysts - Nvidia's earnings report, being the last major tech earnings release of the quarter, could serve as a catalyst for market direction, potentially acting as a "clearinghouse" for market sentiment [18]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a strong performance on February 23, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.53% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 3.34%, indicating a significant recovery in market sentiment [2][3] - There was a clear divergence in sector performance, with technology and semiconductor stocks generally rising, while the commodity sector, particularly gold and oil stocks, showed remarkable strength, with several gold stocks rising over 6% [2][3] - The recent surge in the commodity sector is attributed to strong international commodity prices, with gold futures increasing by 1.66% from February 16 to 20, and Brent crude oil futures rising by 5.62% during the same period [3][4] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the fluctuations in commodity-related stocks during the Spring Festival are closely linked to recent geopolitical developments, particularly the tensions between the U.S. and Iran, which have historically led to better oil price performance [4] - The performance of the Hong Kong market may serve as a reference for the upcoming A-share market, as there is a close correlation in capital flow and market sentiment between the two markets [5][6] - Historical data indicates a significant "Spring Festival effect" in the A-share market, with an 80% probability of the Shanghai Composite Index rising in the five trading days before the festival and a 75% probability in the five days after [5] Group 3 - From a funding perspective, the market shows support, with a net inflow into existing equity ETFs and a potential halt in major fund reductions, suggesting that the current market trend may continue [6][7] - Analysts expect that sectors such as technology manufacturing, resource products, and infrastructure chains will perform well post-Spring Festival, driven by increased risk appetite and seasonal demand [7] - The market may see a blend of growth and dividend strategies post-festival, rather than a simple switch in investment style, as both growth and high-dividend assets remain attractive [7]

1月非银存款同比多增2.56万亿元 央行发布的1月金融统计数据显示，1月住户存款增加2.13万亿元，非金融企业存款增加2.61万亿元，非 银行业金融机构存款增加1.45万亿元。相对2025年同期，非银存款同比多增2.56万亿元，而住户存款同 比少增3.39万亿元。综合券商分析师观点，这背后除受春节错月影响外，也反映了居民存款搬家正在加 速。 高市早苗当选日本第105任首相 日本自民党总裁高市早苗2月18日经国会众议院和参议院首相指名选举当选日本第105任首相。高市早苗 18日晚组建新内阁，上一届高市内阁的阁僚全部留任。高市于去年10月4日当选自民党总裁，10月21日 当选日本第104任首相。今年1月23日，高市和全体阁僚举行内阁会议，通过众议院解散决议书，随后众 议院解散。 苏翊鸣夺得米兰冬奥会中国代表团首金 意大利当地时间2月18日，米兰冬奥会男子单板滑雪坡面障碍技巧决赛在利维尼奥雪上公园展开，中国 队选手苏翊鸣凭借第一轮比赛得到的82.41分获得金牌，这也是中国体育代表团在本届冬奥会上获得的 第一枚金牌。 美联储官员对货币政策走向分歧明显 美联储2月18日公布的1月货币政策会议纪要显示，尽管几乎所有美联储 ...

We were being ripped off by almost every single country in the world. Had massive some massive surpluses. China had hundreds of billions of dollars in surpluses with the United States.They rebuilt China. They rebuilt the army. We built China's army by allowing that to happen.I have a great relationship with President Xi, but he respects our country. Now >> that's President Trump reacting after the Supreme Court struck down his emergency use of tariffs on Friday. He announced initially a 10% global tariff wh ...

一、宏观政策：美联储"加息放缓"预期，是港股流动性的最大催化剂。 如果你今天刷盘面，看到恒指一路往上冲，科技股更是集体起飞，估计第一反应都是：行情又起飞了？ 别急，这波上涨不是"心血来潮"，而是宏观政策、资金流向、板块轮动三股力量一起发力的结果。尤其是半导体板块的爆发，背后有更深层的逻辑。 下面我带你把这三条线捋顺，看懂这波行情到底在涨什么。 港股的命门是什么？流动性。 而流动性的总闸门在美国手里。 过去两年美联储持续高利率，让全球资金都缩着头。但最近市场普遍预期——美联储加息周期接近尾声，甚至可能在年内进入降息窗口。 这对港股意味着什么？ 美联储松口气，港股就能喘大气。 而恒指本身估值已经压到历史低位，一旦流动性改善，反弹力度往往比其他市场更猛。 - 美元强势减弱，资金压力缓解。 - 港元利率下行空间打开。 - 风险偏好回升，资金更愿意流向低估值市场。 一句话： 二、资金流向：南向资金稳定加仓，外资态度从"观望"转向"试探性回流" 从公开市场评论与资金流向趋势可以看到： 过去三个月，南向资金持续净流入，而外资持仓从低位开始回升。 这说明两件事： 1. 南向资金：越跌越买的坚定派。 南向资金对港股的态度一直很 ...