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Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Copper Futures Daily Report [2] - Date: January 29, 2026 [3] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [4] Group 2: Core Views - Copper prices rebounded after hitting the bottom. Trump's statement on the US dollar intensified the market's bearish sentiment towards the US dollar, and the market's bullish sentiment increased during the day, causing Shanghai copper to recover its overnight losses. The spot price rose by 290 to 101,660, and the discount narrowed by 25 to 240. The spot import loss narrowed to around 430. The LME 0 - 3 contango widened to 93.8. The continuous inventory build - up in the LME market led to the collapse of the local price difference structure. The C - L spread was - 6, and there was further pressure on LME inventory build - up. COMEX inventory was also rising continuously. It is expected that the pressure on the domestic and foreign spot markets will increase in the short term. However, current copper prices are more affected by macro factors. With the Fed's interest - rate meeting approaching, it is widely expected that the Fed will pause rate cuts. Trump's statement on the US dollar and the change of the Fed chairman are putting pressure on the US dollar. It is expected that copper prices are likely to rise rather than fall under the background of a weak US dollar [11] Group 3: Industry News - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced that it agreed to register the "Jiangtong" brand Grade A copper produced by Jiangtong Guoxing (Yantai) Copper Co., Ltd. on the exchange. The registered production capacity is 180,000 tons, and the standard price is implemented. As of the announcement date, the above products can be used for the performance and delivery of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper futures contracts [11] - A report released by Bain & Company shows that mining companies are using mergers and acquisitions (M&A) as a core growth strategy, which is driving the transaction market in Canada to reach its highest level in more than a decade. This strategic shift is due to multiple pressures faced by enterprises: continuously rising capital costs, lengthening development cycles of mining projects, and increasingly fierce market competition for high - quality mining assets. These three factors are reshaping the way mining enterprises achieve growth and improve operational efficiency. Bain & Company estimates that the number of global mining transactions with a scale of over $500 million in 2025 will increase by about 45% compared to 2024. Mining enterprises are choosing to achieve scale expansion and enhance operational resilience through mergers and acquisitions rather than investing in new greenfield development projects. The report also predicts that the next round of mining M&A transactions will be larger in scale and more complex in structure, and the success or failure of M&A operations will be a key factor in determining whether an enterprise can gain an advantage in the long - term in the industry [11]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily focus on the copper industry, discussing market dynamics, supply-demand factors, and price movements related to copper [1][2][3][4][5]. Key Points and Arguments Market Disturbances - Recent market disturbances affecting copper fundamentals include: - Nvidia's reduction in copper usage for AI applications [1] - The U.S. postponement of tariffs on critical minerals, which has put pressure on copper fundamentals and contributed to weaker copper prices compared to other metals [1][2]. Price Discrepancies - There is a notable divergence in copper prices between COMEX and LME markets: - COMEX prices weakened due to the U.S. tariff postponement [1]. - LME experienced significant warehouse congestion, with the near-term TOMORROW and NEXT contract price spread soaring to $100, marking the highest increase since 1998 [1]. Inventory Dynamics - North America has seen a hidden inventory of 20,000 tons returned to M1 due to high prices, with New Orleans inventory exceeding 10,000 tons, alleviating LME's low inventory concerns [2]. - The near-term copper price remains weak, while the long-term structure appears healthy, indicating a potential price advantage for U.S. electrolytic copper imports [2]. Supply and Demand Forecast - Short-term copper supply disruptions are expected to support prices, particularly due to a strike at the Capstone copper-gold mine in northern Chile, which has reduced capacity to about 30% [2]. - Current global copper mine production disruption rates are between 5%-6%, affecting profit transmission to capital expenditures and supply [2]. Price Trends and Economic Indicators - Copper prices are anticipated to remain stable before the Spring Festival, potentially underperforming compared to zinc and aluminum, but with limited downside [3]. - The gold-to-copper ratio has recently surged, indicating optimistic market expectations for economic recovery and potential copper price appreciation [3]. Structural Demand Growth - Copper demand is closely tied to electricity consumption, with historical trends showing a correlation between U.S. copper usage and GDP growth [3]. - The anticipated rise in AI-related expenditures is expected to drive infrastructure development, similar to the internet boom from 1990-2000, potentially increasing copper demand [4]. Long-term Supply Constraints - Long-term supply challenges include: - Low capital expenditures in copper mining over the past decade, with insufficient initial investments [4]. - Increased labor tensions and resource protection policies in producing countries, leading to higher production disruption rates [4]. Investment Opportunities - The structural tightness in copper supply and demand suggests a continued bullish outlook for copper prices [5]. - Key resource stocks to consider include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Nonferrous Mining, with a focus on companies improving copper self-sufficiency [5]. Recent Developments in Core Assets - Luoyang Molybdenum is set to complete the acquisition of three gold mines in Brazil, with an estimated contribution of approximately 2.5 billion yuan [6]. - Zijin Mining's acquisition of three gold mining areas in Côte d'Ivoire is expected to significantly increase production and reduce costs [6]. - The copper self-sufficiency improvement projects are projected to yield substantial performance growth, benefiting from macroeconomic recovery expectations [6].

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The copper market is expected to experience short - term high - level oscillations. The significant decline in the US dollar index boosts the non - ferrous metal market, but the downstream acceptance remains unknown. Attention should be paid to the callback opportunities caused by insufficient spot follow - up. The supply side may improve marginally as the inventory structure imbalance caused by copper tariffs globally may be alleviated [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply Side - On Thursday, Capstone Copper's Mantoverde copper mine in Chile was shut down due to a strike. The mine's expected cathode copper output in 2025 is 29,000 - 32,000 tons. TC/RC fees are weakly stable with a further downward trend, and the market's view on supply - side tightness remains unchanged. SMM predicts that the domestic electrolytic copper output in January will decrease by 14,500 tons (a 1.23% decline) month - on - month and increase by 156,300 tons (a 14.78% increase) year - on - year [1] - As of January 26, the spot smelting fee (TC) is - 50 dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 5.18 cents per pound [8] 3.2 Demand Side - As of December 2025, the apparent copper consumption was 1.3188 million tons, a 4.00% increase from the previous month. Near the Spring Festival and with high copper prices, most small and medium - sized enterprises have started their holidays, resulting in low procurement willingness for raw materials. The new - energy vehicle sector has shown poor performance, while traditional industries such as refrigerators and air - conditioners have seen a slight increase [1] 3.3 Market Conditions - **Futures**: Shanghai copper opened lower and closed higher, showing strength during the day [3] - **Spot**: The spot premium in East China is - 260 yuan/ton, and in South China is - 235 yuan/ton. On January 27, 2026, the LME official price is 13,038 dollars/ton, and the spot premium is - 58 dollars/ton [3] 3.4 Inventory - SHFE copper inventory is 148,000 tons, an increase of 3,130 tons from the previous period. As of January 26, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 100,300 tons, a decrease of 7,300 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 172,400 tons, an increase of 1,825 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 568,900 short tons, an increase of 3,040 short tons from the previous period [12]

Group 1 - The target price for Southern Copper Corporation has been raised from $92 to $125 by Bank of Nova Scotia, while maintaining a "underperform" rating [1]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's long position in Jiangxi Copper Company Limited - H shares increased from 4.93% to 5.15% on January 23, 2026 [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides daily analysis and forecasts for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. It assesses the market trends, fundamental data, and news events of each commodity, and gives corresponding trend intensities and trading suggestions [2]. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to reach new highs. The Comex gold 2602 contract rose 2.11% to 4938.40. The trend intensity is 1 [6]. - **Silver**: Aiming to reach 100. The Comex silver 2602 contract rose 3.51% to 96.215. The trend intensity is 1 [6]. - **Platinum**: Expected to oscillate upwards. The trend intensity is 0 [31]. - **Palladium**: Slowly rising. The trend intensity is 0 [31]. Base Metals - **Copper**: With the dollar falling, the price is expected to be strong. The沪铜主力合约 rose 0.71% to 102,600. The trend intensity is 1 [13]. - **Zinc**: Expected to oscillate at a high level. The沪锌主力收盘价 rose 0.91% to 24950. The trend intensity is 0 [16]. - **Lead**: With the decrease in LME inventory, the price is supported. The沪铅主力收盘价 fell 0.41% to 17000. The trend intensity is 0 [19]. - **Tin**: Expected to oscillate at a high level. The沪锡主力合约 rose 6.07% to 451,160. The trend intensity is 0 [23]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to run strongly. The沪铝主力合约收盘价 rose 90 to 24305. The trend intensity is 1 [26]. - **Nickel**: The situation in Indonesia is undetermined, with a game between hedging and speculative positions. The沪镍主力收盘价 rose 730 to 146,110. The trend intensity is 0 [35]. - **Stainless Steel**: Concerns about nickel ore in Indonesia have intensified, and the rise in nickel iron prices supports the center of gravity. The不锈钢主力收盘价 fell 105 to 14,540. The trend intensity is 0 [35]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: Not specifically mentioned in the report. - **Natural Gas**: Not specifically mentioned in the report. - **Coal**: - **Coking Coal**: Expected to oscillate within a range, with industry and capital cooperation. The JM2605 contract fell 3.7% to 1116.5. The trend intensity is 0 [58]. - **Coke**: Expected to oscillate within a range, with industry and capital cooperation. The J2605 contract fell 3.0% to 1668. The trend intensity is 0 [58]. - **Steam Coal**: Supply and demand are expected to weaken, and coal prices are expected to stabilize and rise slightly. The产地 price of Datong南郊动力 coal Q5500 rose 2 to 564.0. The trend intensity is not provided [62]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: With the weak dollar and rising US soybean prices, the Dalian soybean meal may rebound and oscillate. The DCE豆粕2605 contract rose 0.14% to 2770. The trend intensity is 0 [159]. - **Soybean**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is expected to rebound and oscillate. The DCE豆一2605 contract fell 0.71% to 4364. The trend intensity is 0 [159]. - **Corn**: Expected to oscillate strongly. The C2605 contract fell 0.44% to 2,282. The trend intensity is 1 [162]. - **Sugar**: Expected to trade in a narrow range. The futures主力价格 fell 4 to 5168. The trend intensity is 0 [165]. - **Cotton**: Expected to maintain a strong oscillation. The CF2605 contract fell 0.58% to 14,565. The trend intensity is 1 [170]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is expected to be strong during the pre - holiday peak season. The鸡蛋2602 contract fell 0.49% to 3,050. The trend intensity is 0 [177]. - **Hogs**: The demand performance is lower than expected, and attention should be paid to supply contradictions. The生猪2603 contract fell 1.57% to 11285. The trend intensity is - 1 [180]. - **Peanuts**: Expected to oscillate. The PK603 contract rose 0.60% to 8,062. The trend intensity is 0 [183]. Chemicals - **PTA**: The unilateral trend is expected to be strong. The PTA主力合约 fell 3.31% to 5258. The trend intensity is 1 [67]. - **MEG**: The trend is still expected to be strong. The MEG主力合约 fell 1.40% to 3938. The trend intensity is 1 [67]. - **Rubber**: Expected to oscillate. The trend intensity is 0 [72]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to fall from a high level. The顺丁橡胶主力日盘收盘价 fell 220 to 13,045. The trend intensity is 0 [75]. - **LLDPE**: The US dollar offer is temporarily scarce, and the upstream quotation is firm. The L2605 contract fell 0.52% to 6899. The trend intensity is - 1 [78]. - **PP**: The C3 raw material is strong, but the profit repair is limited. The PP2605 contract fell 0.42% to 6709. The trend intensity is - 1 [81]. - **Caustic Soda**: Expected to oscillate at a low level. The 03合约期货价格 is 1951. The trend intensity is 0 [84]. - **Paper Pulp**: Expected to oscillate. The纸浆主力日盘收盘价 fell 32 to 5.342. The trend intensity is 0 [91]. - **Glass**: The original sheet price is stable. The FG605 contract fell 0.93% to 1066. The trend intensity is - 1 [95]. - **Methanol**: Expected to oscillate with support. The甲醇主力收盘价 fell 43 to 2,304. The trend intensity is 1 [98]. - **Urea**: Expected to oscillate with support. The尿素主力收盘价 fell 1 to 1,790. The trend intensity is 0 [103]. - **Styrene**: Expected to oscillate strongly. The苯乙烯2603 contract fell 53 to 7,649. The trend intensity is 0 [106]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The SA2605 contract fell 0.25% to 1,194. The trend intensity is - 1 [110]. - **LPG**: The short - term geopolitical disturbance is strong. The PG2602 contract fell 1.67% to 4,291. The trend intensity is 0 [113]. - **Propylene**: The demand support is strong, and the spot price is rising strongly. The PL2603 contract fell 1.14% to 6,248. The trend intensity is 1 [113]. - **PVC**: Expected to oscillate within a range. The 05合约期货价格 is 4911. The trend intensity is - 1 [121]. - **Fuel Oil**: The night session oscillates, and the high - volatility trend continues. The FU2602 contract fell 2.67% to 2,702. The trend intensity is 0 [124]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Narrowly adjusted, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market rebounded slightly. The LU2602 contract rose 7.00% to 3,349. The trend intensity is 0 [124]. Others - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: Expected to be in an oscillating market, and beware of repeated geopolitical speculation. The EC2604 contract fell 0.11% to 1,193.9. The trend intensity is 0 [126]. - **Short - Fiber**: Expected to have a short - term correction and oscillate at a high level. The短纤2603 contract fell 164 to 6662. The trend intensity is 0 [142]. - **Bottle Chip**: Expected to have a short - term correction and oscillate at a high level. The瓶片2603 contract fell 174 to 6262. The trend intensity is 0 [142]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Suggested to sell on rallies and conduct a 3 - 4 reverse spread. The OP2603.SHF contract rose 4 to 4148. The trend intensity is 0 [145]. - **Pure Benzene**: Expected to oscillate strongly. The BZ2603 contract fell 88 to 5990. The trend intensity is 0 [149]. - **Palm Oil**: The high - level volatility intensifies, and attention should be paid to the previous high pressure. The棕榈油主力收盘价 rose 1.61% to 9,238. The trend intensity is 0 [154]. - **Soybean Oil**: The trading idea of the oil - meal ratio is maintained. The豆油主力收盘价 rose 0.39% to 8,258. The trend intensity is 0 [154].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The copper market is expected to experience short - term high - level oscillations. In the second half of the year, as the mining end resumes production and supply becomes looser, the market may cool down. Currently, due to dollar support and supply tightness, copper prices are strong, but the upside is limited by demand [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened high and closed low, with a decline on the day. The supply side is affected by the strike at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile, and the TC/RC fees are weakly stable with a downward trend. SMM predicts that the domestic electrolytic copper production in January will decrease by 1.45 tons month - on - month (a 1.23% decline) and increase by 15.63 tons year - on - year (a 14.78% increase). The demand side shows that as of December 2025, the apparent copper consumption was 131.88 tons, a 4.00% increase from the previous month. Near the Spring Festival and with high copper prices, most small and medium - sized enterprises have started their holidays, and the procurement willingness for raw materials is low. The performance of new energy vehicles is poor, while traditional industries such as refrigerators and air conditioners have a slight increase. After the weakening of the US copper tariff collection expectation, the C - L spread has converged, and the US copper inventory may overflow, which may ease the inventory structure imbalance caused by copper tariffs [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened high and closed low, with a decline on the day. Spot: The spot premium in East China is - 250 yuan/ton, and in South China is - 235 yuan/ton. On January 26, 2026, the LME official price is 13245 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium is - 50 US dollars/ton [3] 3. Supply Side - As of January 26, the spot smelting fee (TC) is - 50 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 5.18 cents/pound [8] 4. Inventory - SHFE copper inventory is 14.49 tons, a decrease of 406 tons from the previous period. As of January 26, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 10.03 tons, a decrease of 0.73 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 17.05 tons, a decrease of 1175 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 56.56 thousand short tons, an increase of 3257 short tons from the previous period [12]