华鑫证券近日发布有色金属行业周报：价格方面，周内伦敦黄金价格为3974.50美元/盎 司，环比10月3日上涨88.80美元/盎司，涨幅为2.29%。周内伦敦白银价格为50.76美元/盎 司，环比10月3日上涨3.16美元/盎司，涨幅为6.63%。根据最新公布的会议纪要，美联储官 员们大体同意，近期就业增长放缓的重要性超过了对持续高企通胀的担忧，因此在9月将基 准利率下调0.25个百分点至4%至4.25%的区间。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点 贵金属：风险资产大跌，避险情绪将推升贵金属价格 价格方面，周内伦敦黄金价格为3974.50美元/盎司，环比10月3日上涨88.80美元/盎司， 涨幅为2.29%。周内伦敦白银价格为50.76美元/盎司，环比10月3日上涨3.16美元/盎司，涨幅 为6.63%。 美联储本周发布9月议息会议纪要，多数官员称今年继续宽松可能适宜。根据最新公布 的会议纪要，美联储官员们大体同意，近期就业增长放缓的重要性超过了对持续高企通胀的 担忧，因此在9月将基准利率下调0.25个百分点至4%至4.25%的区间。大多数官员认为，在 今年剩余时间内进一步放松政策可能是合适的。对于就业和通胀，尽管 ...

Group 1 - Tianshan Aluminum (002532) executed a large block trade at a discount of 127 million yuan, with a transaction price of 11.58 yuan per share, compared to the closing price of 11.69 yuan today [1] - The buyer of the block trade was an institutional special seat, while the seller was Changjiang Securities Shenzhen Fuhua Road branch [1]

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the gold industry, copper industry, aluminum industry, tin industry, and antimony industry [12]. Core Views - The report indicates that the decline in risk assets and the resulting increase in risk aversion will drive up precious metal prices, particularly gold and silver [4][5]. - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower interest rates is expected to support the upward trend in gold prices [5]. - Supply disruptions in copper mining are anticipated to strengthen copper prices as the peak demand season approaches [6][8]. - The aluminum market is expected to experience tight supply conditions, although demand recovery post-holiday is still uncertain [9]. - Tin prices are supported by tightening supply due to issues in refining and mining operations [10]. - Antimony prices are expected to remain weak in the short term due to weak demand, but long-term supply constraints may support prices [12]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices increased to $3974.50 per ounce, up by $88.80 from October 3, reflecting a 2.29% rise. Silver prices rose to $50.76 per ounce, up by $3.16, a 6.63% increase [4][32]. - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 70,000 ounces to 32.7 million ounces, while SLV Silver ETF holdings rose by 11.35 million ounces to 497 million ounces [32]. Copper - LME copper closed at $10,765 per ton, up by $200 from October 3, a 1.89% increase. SHFE copper closed at 85,900 yuan per ton, up by 2,550 yuan, a 3.06% increase [6]. - Supply disruptions from major mines are expected to support copper prices, with Freeport-McMoran and Teck Resources reducing their production forecasts significantly [8]. Aluminum - Domestic aluminum prices reached 21,020 yuan per ton, up by 290 yuan. LME aluminum inventory decreased to 508,825 tons [9]. - The report notes that while supply remains rigid, demand recovery is still weak, leading to potential inventory accumulation [9]. Tin - Domestic refined tin prices rose to 288,830 yuan per ton, an increase of 10,370 yuan, or 5.16% [10]. - Supply issues are exacerbated by slow recovery in mining operations, particularly in Myanmar and Indonesia [10]. Antimony - Antimony prices fell to 167,500 yuan per ton, down by 1,000 yuan, reflecting a 0.59% decrease. The report highlights weak demand and ongoing supply issues [11].

Core Viewpoint - Jiyuan Wanfang's stock price has shown significant growth this year, with a notable increase in both revenue and net profit, indicating strong financial performance and investor interest [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of October 13, Jiyuan Wanfang's stock price increased by 2.00%, reaching 9.16 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 4.93 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 4.60%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 109.21 billion CNY [1]. - The stock has risen by 45.63% year-to-date, with a 14.36% increase over the last five trading days, 5.17% over the last 20 days, and 13.51% over the last 60 days [1]. - The company has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" once this year, with the most recent occurrence on March 18 [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Jiyuan Wanfang reported a revenue of 3.309 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 536 million CNY, which is a 49.06% increase compared to the previous year [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 1.759 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 405 million CNY distributed over the last three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, the number of shareholders for Jiyuan Wanfang was 70,600, a slight decrease of 0.09% from the previous period, while the average number of circulating shares per person increased by 0.09% to 16,885 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Shenwan Hongyuan Securities Co., Ltd. holds 23.8445 million shares, a decrease of 19,300 shares from the previous period, while the Southern CSI 1000 ETF is a new shareholder with 8.8403 million shares [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content was found in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Near the Sino - US tariff extension deadline, tariff negotiation rhythm may drive short - term trading. The weak US employment data leads to expectations of further monetary easing by the Fed. The widening COMEX - LME spread attracts non - US copper to the US. In the long - term, copper supply shortage will support the price bottom, but short - term price is affected by demand changes and tariff negotiations [1]. Aluminum - After the holiday, the alumina futures price is under pressure, and the aluminum price fluctuates. The alumina supply is in excess, and the demand is weak. The aluminum market is in a tight balance, with high - price suppressing procurement and low inventory levels. The short - term prices of alumina and aluminum are expected to be range - bound [3]. Aluminum Alloy - After the holiday, the casting aluminum alloy futures price strengthens. The cost is supported, but the supply is restricted by raw materials and policies. The demand recovers moderately, and the inventory increase slows down. The short - term ADC12 price is expected to remain high and volatile [5]. Zinc - The supply of zinc is loose, and the demand is not outstanding. The short - term zinc price may be driven by the macro - environment, but the upward elasticity is limited. It may maintain a range - bound movement unless there are significant changes in demand or supply [8]. Tin - The supply of tin is tight, and the demand is weak. After the sharp decline of the outer - plate metal, the tin price may fall, but considering the strong fundamentals, it can be considered to buy at low prices after the risk is released. The future price depends on the supply recovery in Myanmar [10]. Nickel - The nickel price fluctuates widely. The macro - environment is uncertain, and the policy expectations of the Indonesian ore end are increasing. The cost is supported, but the medium - term supply is loose. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel price fluctuates narrowly. The macro - environment is uncertain, the raw material price is firm, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand improvement is not obvious, and the inventory reduction is slow. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuates. The supply path is becoming clear, but the news may bring variables. The demand is optimistic, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound [14]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 86,680 yuan/ton, up 1.10% [1]. - SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 20 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [1]. Fundamental Data - September electrolytic copper production is 112.10 million tons, down 4.31% [1]. - August electrolytic copper import is 26.43 million tons, down 10.99% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,980 yuan/ton, up 0.10% [3]. - SMM A00 aluminum premium is - 50 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [3]. Fundamental Data - September alumina production is 760.37 million tons, down 1.74% [3]. - September electrolytic aluminum production is 361.48 million tons, down 3.16% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 21,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - The scrap - refined price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum is 1,524 yuan/ton, up 1.33% [5]. Fundamental Data - August recycled aluminum alloy ingot production is 66.10 million tons, up 7.48% [5]. - August primary aluminum alloy ingot production is 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,300 yuan/ton, up 0.72% [8]. - The import profit and loss is - 3,968 yuan/ton, up 199.94 yuan [8]. Fundamental Data - September refined zinc production is 60.01 million tons, down 4.17% [8]. - August refined zinc import is 2.57 million tons, up 43.30% [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price is 287,400 yuan/ton, up 1.13% [10]. - SMM 1 tin premium is 300 yuan/ton, unchanged [10]. Fundamental Data - August tin ore import is 10,267 tons, down 0.11% [10]. - September SMM refined tin production is 10,510 tons, down 31.71% [10]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 123,850 yuan/ton, up 0.20% [12]. - 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 2,300 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [12]. Supply and Inventory - China's refined nickel production is 32,200 tons, up 1.26% [12]. - Refined nickel import is 17,010 tons, down 3.00% [12]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price is 13,050 yuan/ton, down 0.38% [13]. - The spot - futures price difference is 13,220 yuan/ton, up 2597.96% [13]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) is 187.48 million tons, up 4.42% [13]. - Stainless steel import is 11.72 million tons, up 60.48% [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 73,550 yuan/ton, unchanged [14]. - SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 71,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [14]. Fundamental Data - September lithium carbonate production is 87,260 tons, up 2.37% [14]. - September lithium carbonate demand is 116,801 tons, up 12.28% [14].

Macro and Strategy Research - The U.S. government is in a shutdown due to a lack of agreement on a temporary funding bill, leading to a focus on private sector data as official reports are absent. The ADP employment numbers for September showed a larger-than-expected decline, indicating a continued weakening trend in employment. Manufacturing PMI has unexpectedly rebounded but remains in contraction territory, with new orders reflecting weak demand in the manufacturing sector. Non-manufacturing PMI is also not optimistic, with price components slightly rising due to tariff cost transmission [2][3] - In Europe and Japan, political instability is evident with the resignation of the French Prime Minister and the election of a right-leaning leader in Japan, creating uncertainty in the political landscape. The European Central Bank has no immediate plans for rate cuts, while the Bank of Japan's rate hike process may slow down due to policy direction [3] - Domestic consumption has been boosted by the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, with service consumption growing faster than goods consumption. However, the real estate market shows signs of weakness, particularly in first-tier cities, and the central bank is expected to adopt a more flexible and anticipatory policy approach in the fourth quarter [2][3] Fixed Income Research - In Q3 2025, the central bank maintained support for the market with significant net injections through reverse repos and MLF, keeping funding prices low. The issuance of government bonds decreased, but net financing remained high due to reduced maturity volumes. The bond market showed a bear steepening trend, with investor confidence in buying bonds remaining low [5][6] - Looking ahead to Q4, the bond market is expected to remain under pressure, but the situation is anticipated to improve compared to Q3. The key indicators to watch include PPI, which will influence bond pricing. The central bank's continued support and potential resumption of bond purchases are expected to stabilize interest rates [6][7] Industry Research Metal Industry - The steel industry is expected to see a gradual recovery in demand post-holiday, but supply may also increase, making significant improvements in the fundamentals unlikely. The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee is a key event to monitor for industry developments [8] - For copper, global supply remains tight, providing support for prices, but general demand and high prices may pressure future price increases. Aluminum prices are expected to face limitations due to high costs affecting purchasing sentiment [8][9] - Gold prices are influenced by the U.S. entering a rate cut cycle and political risks from the government shutdown. If the shutdown is resolved and economic data remains strong, gold may face short-term corrections [9][10] - Lithium supply concerns have eased with approvals for resource reports, but short-term oversupply pressures may affect prices. Rare earth prices are expected to remain volatile, influenced by domestic export policies and overseas demand [9][10] Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology Industry - The recent World Lung Cancer Conference highlighted the R&D capabilities of Chinese pharmaceutical companies. The National Medical Products Administration has initiated the 11th round of centralized drug procurement [12][13] - The medical care CPI for August showed a 0.9% year-on-year increase, while the pharmaceutical manufacturing PPI decreased by 2.9%. Cumulative revenue and profit in the pharmaceutical manufacturing sector have declined by 2.0% and 3.9%, respectively, in the first eight months of 2025 [13] - The pharmaceutical sector experienced a pullback in September, with a focus on the upcoming ESMO conference and third-quarter earnings reports. There is potential for improvement in fundamentals, particularly in innovative drugs and medical devices [14][15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4][5] Core Views - The report highlights that the recent drop in copper and aluminum prices is a short-term liquidity shock due to renewed U.S. tariff threats, but the long-term upward trend for copper remains intact [5] - The report suggests that the supply-demand balance for copper may shift from tight to shortage due to frequent supply disruptions and the U.S. entering a monetary easing cycle [5] - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jiangxi Copper among others for potential investment opportunities [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The U.S. has threatened to impose a 100% tariff on all goods imported from China starting November 1, 2025, which has raised market risk aversion [9] 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 4.44% compared to the index's 0.37% [11][12] - The report notes that copper, magnetic materials, and rare earths performed well, while copper materials and cobalt lagged behind [11] 3. Valuation Changes - The TTM PE for the non-ferrous metals sector is 27.81, with a weekly change of 2.98 [21] - The PB for the sector is 3.33, reflecting a change of 0.36 [21] 4. Copper - London copper prices increased by 1.89%, while Shanghai copper prices rose by 3.37% [26] - The report indicates that copper smelting margins are negative, with a loss of 2738 yuan/ton [26] 5. Aluminum - London aluminum prices rose by 3.09%, and Shanghai aluminum prices increased by 1.61% [38] - The report notes that aluminum smelting margins improved to 5133 yuan/ton [38] 6. Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices remained stable at 73550 yuan/ton, while lithium spodumene prices fell by 2.21% to 839 USD/ton [74] - The report indicates that lithium smelting margins are negative, with losses reported [74] 7. Cobalt - The price of MB cobalt increased by 4.19% to 19.90 USD/pound, and domestic cobalt prices rose by 2.87% to 359000 yuan/ton [87] - The report highlights that cobalt supply may tighten due to new export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo [87]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Leading the Market - A" with a maintained rating [4]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the impact of recent geopolitical events, including the U.S. government shutdown and potential tariffs on Chinese imports, which have led to increased prices for precious and industrial metals [1][2]. - There is a focus on the strategic attributes of rare earth metals and the safe-haven properties of gold in the short term, while maintaining a long-term outlook on the fundamentals of copper, aluminum, tin, cobalt, and tantalum [1]. - The report suggests that the recent announcements from the U.S. and China regarding rare earths indicate a shift towards dual control of technology and supply chains, which may lead to a new round of price increases in the rare earth sector [7]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have seen increases of 3.6% and 3.0% respectively, with COMEX gold closing at $3986.2 per ounce and silver at $47.4 per ounce [2]. - The market is expected to continue favoring gold due to policy uncertainties and rising demand for silver, which has been included in the U.S. critical minerals list [2]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices have increased, with LME copper closing at $10,374 per ton, reflecting a 0.86% rise [3]. - Supply constraints from major producers and a slight recovery in demand post-holiday are expected to support copper prices [3]. - Aluminum prices have also risen, with LME aluminum at $2,746 per ton, although recent geopolitical tensions have caused some volatility [3][7]. Strategic Metals - The report emphasizes the growing anxiety in the U.S. and Europe regarding the supply of rare earth materials, particularly for AI and military applications [8]. - Recent policy changes in China regarding rare earth management are expected to influence market dynamics positively, with potential price increases anticipated [8]. - Cobalt prices are on the rise due to limited supply and strong demand, particularly in the context of the upcoming export quota regulations from the Democratic Republic of Congo [8].

Core Conclusions - The overall valuation of A-shares has expanded this week, with the non-ferrous metals industry continuing to lead the market [1] - During the National Day holiday, favorable factors for the non-ferrous industry have emerged, contributing to its ongoing leadership [1] - The current overall PB (LF) of the non-ferrous metals industry is at the historical 87.8 percentile, with specific sectors like copper, aluminum, lithium, and gold at 92.1%, 96.3%, 40.7%, and 83.6% percentiles respectively, indicating greater valuation upside potential for lithium [1] A-share Valuation Overview - The overall PE (TTM) of A-shares increased from 22.36 times last week to 22.78 times this week, while PB (LF) rose from 2.17 times to 2.21 times [10] - The PE (TTM) of the ChiNext board increased from 81.61 times to 82.22 times, while its PB (LF) remained stable at 4.88 times [19] - The PE (TTM) of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board rose from 272.77 times to 276.66 times, with PB (LF) increasing from 6.72 times to 6.81 times [21] Industry Valuation Levels - From a static PE (TTM) perspective, major industries such as consumer discretionary, midstream manufacturing, and cyclical sectors have absolute and relative valuations above historical medians, with consumer discretionary and midstream manufacturing exceeding the 90th percentile [27] - In terms of PB (LF), TMT, midstream manufacturing, and consumer discretionary also show absolute and relative valuations above historical medians, while financial services and consumer staples are below historical medians [29] - The overall valuation of key companies in A-shares based on dynamic PE increased from 15.17 times to 15.19 times this week [14] Relative Valuation Expansion - The relative PE (TTM) for computing infrastructure, excluding operators and resource categories, decreased from 5.80 times to 5.66 times, while relative PB (LF) fell from 5.69 times to 5.54 times [23] - The current comparison of odds (PB historical percentiles) and win rates (ROE historical percentiles) indicates that industries like oil and petrochemicals, as well as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, exhibit characteristics of low valuation and high profitability [2] ERP and Equity-Debt Yield Spread - The non-financial ERP of A-shares decreased from 0.80% to 0.76%, while the equity-debt yield spread fell from -0.19% to -0.24% [60] - The dynamic ERP of key non-financial companies in A-shares increased from 2.76% to 2.77% this week [64]

证券日报网讯 10月10日晚间，中国铝业发布2025年半年度权益分派实施公告称，公司2025年半年度利 润分配方案为A股每股现金红利人民币0.123元（含税），股权登记日为2025年10月16日，除权（息）日 及现金红利发放日均为2025年10月17日。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...