Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Minfa Aluminum's stock has experienced fluctuations, with a recent decline in price and significant changes in trading volume and shareholder structure [1][2]. - As of January 7, Minfa Aluminum's stock price was 4.58 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 4.299 billion yuan and a trading volume of 94.6516 million yuan [1]. - The company has seen a year-to-date stock price increase of 2.00%, but a decline of 1.72% over the last five trading days and a significant drop of 16.12% over the last 20 days [2]. Group 2 - Minfa Aluminum's main business includes the research, production, and sales of architectural aluminum profiles, industrial aluminum profiles, and aluminum templates, with 97.02% of revenue coming from aluminum profile sales [2]. - For the period from January to September 2025, Minfa Aluminum reported a revenue of 1.283 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.37%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -8.1134 million yuan, a decrease of 128.51% [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 163 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 37.5452 million yuan distributed in the last three years [3].

Fixed Income Research - The core viewpoint indicates a divergence in the issuance guidance rates for credit bonds, with medium to high ratings increasing and low ratings decreasing, resulting in an overall change of -6BP to 4BP [2] - In December, the issuance scale of credit bonds decreased month-on-month, with only short-term financing bonds seeing an increase; net financing for credit bonds decreased while company bonds saw an increase [2] - The secondary market saw an increase in transaction volume for credit bonds in December, with yields showing low volatility; the overall credit spread widened, with most varieties at historical low levels [2] - The report suggests that the supply shortage and strong demand for allocation will continue to drive a recovery in credit bonds, with a long-term downward trend in yields expected [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of adjusting strategies in response to market fluctuations and highlights the need to focus on the trends in interest rate bonds while considering the value of individual bonds [2] Financial Engineering Research - The report notes that all major indices rose, with the margin balance continuing to increase, indicating a recovery in valuations and trading opportunities [4] - For the week of December 24-30, all major A-share indices increased, with the CSI 500 showing the largest rise of 2.79% [5] - The margin balance in the two markets reached 25,472.93 billion yuan, an increase of 236.17 billion yuan from the previous week, with the average daily number of investors participating in margin trading rising by 17.70% [5][6] Industry Research - Pharmaceutical and Biological Industry - The report highlights the ongoing trend in the innovative drug industry, with significant developments in regulatory frameworks and a notable increase in the number of approved innovative drugs [12] - In November, the medical care CPI was 101.6, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, while the pharmaceutical manufacturing PPI was 96.1, down 3.9% year-on-year [12] - The report indicates that the innovative drug industry in China is expected to continue its long-term growth trajectory, with a focus on strategic developments in related sectors [12][13] Industry Research - Metals Industry - The report outlines that the steel industry is expected to continue facing weak demand in January 2026, with prices likely to remain low [16] - For copper, the supply is expected to be sufficient, but high prices may suppress downstream demand, leading to a phase of high price fluctuations [16] - The report suggests that the aluminum industry may see improved profitability due to low prices of alumina and strong demand from sectors like new energy vehicles [18] - The report emphasizes the strategic value of rare earth resources and suggests that the industry is poised for future growth, particularly in new energy and robotics sectors [20]

Core Viewpoint - The social security fund has made significant investments in three companies, indicating a strategic interest in these firms' potential growth and stability [1] Group 1: Company Investments - The social security fund's 114 combination is the fifth largest shareholder in Nanshan Aluminum, holding 164.34 million shares, which represents 1.43% of the circulating shares [1] - The social security fund's 404 combination is the ninth largest shareholder in Jiazha Energy, with a holding of 19.45 million shares, accounting for 0.80% of the circulating shares [1] - The social security fund's 416 combination is the tenth largest shareholder in Kelun Pharmaceutical, possessing 13.94 million shares, which constitutes 1.07% of the circulating shares [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Report Core Views Copper - The medium - to long - term fundamentals of copper are still good, with capital expenditure constraints on the supply side supporting a gradual upward shift in the bottom center. However, in the short term, the sharp rise in prices has significantly suppressed real terminal demand, and the current copper price is overvalued to some extent. But in a macro - environment with high speculative sentiment and risk appetite, the short - term price may remain strong. The volatility of Shanghai copper options remains high, and short - term price fluctuations may intensify, with the main focus on the 99,000 - 100,000 support level [2]. Zinc - Affected by the Venezuela event, the zinc price continued to be strong. Domestic zinc concentrate production is in a reduction season, and the supply of domestic zinc ore is tight. The import window for zinc ore has opened, which may relieve the short - term supply pressure. The supply pressure of refined zinc has eased, and downstream demand has shown good performance. In the future, the price will be supported by tight domestic zinc ore and low zinc ingot inventory, and pressured by the expected supply of imported ore. The short - term price will fluctuate strongly in a warm macro - atmosphere, and attention should be paid to import profit and loss, TC inflection points, and refined zinc inventory changes [6]. Nickel - Due to the resonance of supply - side contraction expectations and geopolitical risks, the nickel price rose sharply. The spot of Jinchuan nickel resources is still tight, and the spot premium remains high. The price of nickel iron has a stronger bottom support, but the terminal demand is weak. Overall, the short - term disk is expected to remain strong, with the main contract expected to run in the 142,000 - 152,000 range [8]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel disk was affected by raw - material disturbances and rose. The spot resources are generally tight, and the market sentiment is boosted by the expected tightening of the nickel ore market. The supply - side pressure has eased slightly, but the demand in the off - season is still insufficient. The short - term disk is expected to remain strong, with the main contract expected to run in the 13,500 - 14,200 range [9]. Tin - The tin price rose strongly. On the supply side, the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is expected to accelerate, and the export of tin ingots from Indonesia has basically completed the annual target. The safety situation in Congo (Kinshasa) may affect tin production. On the demand side, the tin - soldering enterprises in South China show certain resilience, while those in East China are more restricted. The short - term price is mainly affected by macro factors [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate disk continued to rise rapidly. The market's expectation of supply disturbances has been strengthened, and the supply is expected to increase slightly. Downstream demand maintains a certain resilience, but the orders in the power market have declined. The short - term disk is expected to be strong, and attention should be paid to liquidity risks and regulatory possibilities [16]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy price followed the aluminum price and continued to reach new highs, but the spot - market trading was light. The cost is the main driving factor, and the market is in a tight - balance state with both supply and demand weak. The ADC12 price is expected to continue to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 22,600 - 23,600 yuan/ton [18]. Aluminum - The aluminum oxide disk fluctuated widely, and the spot trading was light at the end of the year. The policy has stimulated the supply - side contraction expectation, but the supply - demand fundamentals have not changed. The aluminum oxide price is expected to fluctuate widely around the industry's cash - cost line and may follow the aluminum price to rise emotionally in the future. The aluminum price is expected to maintain a high - level wide - range shock in the short term, with the main contract of Shanghai aluminum expected to run in the 23,800 - 24,800 yuan/ton range [21]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial - silicon price was affected by the news of the organic - silicon monomer factory meeting. The 1 - month industrial silicon is expected to maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand. The demand may decline, and the export may increase. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with the main price fluctuation range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton [22]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon is firm, and the futures price rose and then fell. The upstream hopes to drive the price increase of the entire industry chain by holding up the price, but the downstream demand is weak. In January, the demand has no bright spots, and the price may rise while the volume falls. The polysilicon price will remain in a high - level shock, and attention should be paid to the production - reduction efforts or price - decline pressure [24]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 3.07% to 103,665 yuan/ton, and the price of SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper increased by 3.58% to 103,815 yuan/ton. The premium and discount of various copper types and related indicators such as refined - scrap spread, LME 0 - 3, and import profit and loss have changed to varying degrees [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the electrolytic copper production was 117.81 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.80%. In November, the electrolytic copper import volume was 27.11 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.90%. The inventory of various types has also changed [2]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 1.54% to 23,970 yuan/ton, and the premium and discount and other indicators have changed [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the refined zinc production was 55.21 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.24%. In November, the refined zinc import volume was 1.82 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.22%, and the export volume increased significantly. The operating rates of related industries and inventory levels have also changed [6]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 3.84% to 143,450 yuan/ton, and the premium and discount of various nickel products and other indicators have changed [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, China's refined nickel production was 33,342 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.38%. In November, the refined nickel import volume was 12,671 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.08%. The inventory of various types has also changed [8]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) increased by 0.76% to 13,300 yuan/ton, and the prices of raw materials and month - to - month spreads have changed [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China was 178.70 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72%. The import and export volumes of stainless steel have also changed, and the social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel has decreased slightly [9]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 tin increased by 2.85% to 341,050 yuan/ton, and the premium and discount, import profit and loss, and month - to - month spreads have changed [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, the tin ore import volume was 15,099 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.81%. In December, the SMM refined tin production was 15,950 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06%. The inventory of various types has decreased to varying degrees [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 6.69% to 127,500 yuan/ton, and the prices of related lithium products and spreads have changed [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the lithium carbonate production was 99,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.04%. The demand decreased by 2.50%, and the inventory of various types has decreased [16]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased by 1.73% to 23,500 yuan/ton, and the price differences between refined and scrap aluminum and month - to - month spreads have changed [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 68.20 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.74%. The operating rates of related industries and inventory levels have also changed [18]. Aluminum - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 2.57% to 23,910 yuan/ton, and the prices of alumina and related indicators such as import profit and loss and month - to - month spreads have changed [21]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the alumina production was 751.96 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.08%. The production of domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum increased, and the inventory of various types has changed [21]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,250 yuan/ton, and the month - to - month spreads have changed significantly [22]. - **Fundamental Data**: The national industrial silicon production was 39.71 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.15%. The production and operating rates in different regions and the production of related downstream products have changed, and the inventory has increased slightly [22]. Polysilicon - **Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type re -投料 increased by 0.47% to 53,500 yuan/kg, and the futures price and month - to - month spreads have changed [24]. - **Fundamental Data**: The weekly and monthly production of polysilicon and silicon wafers, import and export volumes, and inventory levels have all changed [24].

Copper - Copper prices have risen significantly, with LME copper closing at a historical high, while domestic refined copper imports remain unprofitable [3][12] - The Federal Reserve shows internal disagreement on interest rate cuts, with Richmond Fed President Barkin stating rates are at neutral levels, while others suggest cuts could exceed 100 basis points this year [3][12] - LME copper inventory increased by 3,525 tons to 146,075 tons, Comex inventory rose by 4,996 tons to 461,654 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 2,989 tons to 93,271 tons [3][12] - Demand for copper is slowing due to high prices, but there remains a rigid purchasing demand in the market [3][12] - Despite the current unfavorable fundamentals for copper, there is strong market expectation for economic recovery in 2026, leading to a bullish sentiment in the short term [3][12] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel rose by 6.59% to $18,430 per ton, while SHFE nickel reached a limit-up at 147,720 yuan per ton [4][14] - LME nickel inventory increased by 192 tons to 255,546 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts rose by 964 tons to 39,388 tons [4][14] - The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association reported a significant decrease in nickel ore production targets for 2026, down to 250 million tons from 379 million tons in 2025 [4][14] - Domestic social inventory of primary nickel saw a slight increase last week, while both LME and SHFE inventories experienced a decrease [4][14] Aluminum & Aluminum Alloys - Alumina prices showed a strong upward trend, with AO2605 closing at 2,915 yuan per ton, a 4.14% increase [6][15] - SHFE aluminum also saw a rise, with AL2602 closing at 24,695 yuan per ton, up 2.58% [6][15] - Current aluminum ingot spot prices are under pressure due to increased inventory and reduced outflow from major sales areas [6][15] - The market is experiencing a bullish sentiment driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which is supporting aluminum prices [6][15] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a slight increase, with the main contract closing at 8,900 yuan per ton, up 1.37% [7][16] - Polysilicon prices also rose, with the main contract closing at 59,365 yuan per ton, a 1.69% increase [7][16] - The production of industrial silicon is shifting northward, but demand is declining, leading to a potential oversupply situation [7][16] - The industry is expected to see a reduction in polysilicon supply due to self-regulation and coordinated production cuts [7][16] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures reached a limit-up at 137,940 yuan per ton, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices rising by 8,000 yuan to 127,500 yuan per ton [8][17] - Weekly production of lithium increased by 259 tons to 22,420 tons, with various sources contributing to the increase [8][17] - Forecasts indicate a slight decrease in lithium carbonate production for January 2026, with expected declines in several categories [8][17] - Market sentiment is sensitive to geopolitical and policy factors affecting lithium supply, with expectations for price increases to be transmitted downstream [8][17]

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The 2026 China People's Bank Work Conference emphasized promoting high - quality economic development and reasonable price recovery, and planned to use various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts [8][22][28][30]. - Multiple factors drive the copper price to be strong. Supply - side concerns and long - term copper consumption recovery expectations, especially from emerging industries like AI computing centers,新能源 industries, and grid transformation, may lead to a continuous firm or rising copper price [9][10]. - For the Container Freight Index (European Line), the 2602 contract may make up the water price, and the far - month contracts should focus on the water - making up and the fermentation of geopolitical events [11][12][144]. - The silicon iron market is driven by emotions and medium - term expectations, and the price may rise, but the sustainability needs further confirmation [13]. Summary by Related Catalogs Metals Copper - **Supply - side**: Global geopolitical turmoil raises concerns about copper mine supply. The 2026 Chinese imported copper concentrate long - term TC is $0/ton, lower than in 2025. Some copper mines face potential labor disputes and production changes [9][24][26]. - **Demand - side**: Long - term copper consumption recovery expectations are strong. AI computing centers and other emerging industries, as well as the new energy industry and grid transformation, drive copper demand [9][10]. - **Price trend**: Based on the long - term positive fundamentals, the copper price may remain firm or rise [10]. Zinc - **Market performance**: The zinc price is running strongly. The prices of domestic and foreign zinc futures and spot have increased, and the trading volume and open interest have also changed [27]. - **News influence**: Policy changes and geopolitical events may affect the zinc market [28]. Lead - **Market situation**: The LME lead inventory decrease supports the lead price. The prices of domestic and foreign lead futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and open interest have also shown corresponding trends [31]. - **News background**: Geopolitical events and corporate data influence the lead market [31]. Tin - **Market trend**: The tin price is in a range - bound oscillation. The prices of domestic and foreign tin futures and spot have increased, and the inventory has changed [34]. - **News impact**: Macroeconomic policies and corporate news affect the tin market [35]. Aluminum - **Market performance**: The aluminum price is oscillating strongly. The prices of domestic and foreign aluminum futures and spot, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and inventory, have all changed [37]. - **News influence**: Fed policy differences and geopolitical events affect the aluminum market [38]. Platinum and Palladium - **Market trend**: Platinum shows a recovery in sentiment and runs strongly, and palladium follows platinum. The prices of platinum and palladium futures and spot have increased, and the trading volume, open interest, and inventory have changed [39]. - **News background**: Geopolitical events and corporate news influence the market [42]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market situation**: Nickel is in a wide - range oscillation, and stainless steel is affected by the fundamentals and Indonesian policies. The prices, trading volume, and open interest of nickel - related products have changed, and the Indonesian government has introduced relevant policies [43][44][46]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market performance**: The market sentiment of carbonate lithium is strong. The prices of carbonate lithium futures and spot have increased, and the trading volume and open interest have changed [47]. - **News influence**: The price negotiation of lithium iron phosphate and the release of new battery products affect the market [48][49]. Energy and Chemicals Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market trend**: Industrial silicon is affected by news and shows a strong performance, and polysilicon needs to pay attention to market news. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of industrial silicon and polysilicon have changed [50]. - **News background**: The proposed implementation of differential electricity prices in Shaanxi affects the industrial silicon market [51]. Iron Ore - **Market situation**: The iron ore price is fluctuating at a high level. The prices of iron ore futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume, open interest, and inventory have also shown corresponding trends [54][55]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market performance**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil are affected by market sentiment and are in a wide - range oscillation. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil have changed, and relevant policies have been introduced [58][59][60]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Market trend**: The prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon are oscillating upwards. The prices of futures and spot, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and inventory, have changed. The market is affected by potential electricity price increases and other factors [63][64][65]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Market situation**: Coke and coking coal are in a wide - range oscillation with accumulating contradictions. The prices of futures and spot, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and inventory, have changed [67]. Logs - **Market performance**: The log price is oscillating at a low level. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of log futures and spot have changed [70][71][73]. p - Xylene, PTA, and MEG - **Market trend**: p - Xylene is in a short - term high - level oscillation, PTA is in a high - level oscillation, and MEG has limited upward space and medium - term pressure. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of relevant products have changed, and market news affects the market [74][75][76]. Rubber - **Market situation**: The rubber price is oscillating strongly. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of rubber futures and spot have changed, and the rubber cost support is strengthening [79][80][81]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market performance**: The short - term center of synthetic rubber moves upwards. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of synthetic rubber futures and spot have changed, and it is affected by the cost of butadiene [82][83][84]. LLDPE - **Market trend**: The LLDPE price is firm, and the standard product production decreases. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of LLDPE futures and spot have changed, and the market is affected by raw material prices and supply - demand relationships [85][86]. PP - **Market situation**: The PP price is weak. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of PP futures and spot have changed, and it is affected by cost and demand [88][89]. Caustic Soda - **Market performance**: Caustic soda is strong in the short - term and oscillating in the medium - term. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of caustic soda futures and spot have changed, and it is affected by factors such as delivery and supply - demand [90][91][92]. Pulp - **Market trend**: The pulp price is oscillating strongly. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of pulp futures and spot have changed, and the market is affected by raw material prices and demand [95][97][98]. Glass - **Market situation**: The glass price is stable. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of glass futures and spot have changed, and the market is affected by the holiday atmosphere and demand [100][101]. Methanol - **Market performance**: Methanol is strong in the short - term. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of methanol futures and spot have changed, and it is affected by geopolitical events and supply - demand expectations [103][104][106]. Urea - **Market situation**: The urea price center moves upwards. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of urea futures and spot have changed, and it is affected by factors such as demand expectations and inventory [108][109][110]. Styrene - **Market trend**: Styrene is in a short - term oscillation. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of styrene futures and spot have changed, and it is affected by factors such as valuation and supply - demand [113][114][115]. Soda Ash - **Market situation**: The soda ash market changes little. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of soda ash futures and spot have changed [117][119]. LPG and Propylene - **Market performance**: The LPG import cost is firm, and propylene demand is stable with a slight price increase. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of LPG and propylene futures and spot have changed, and relevant industry data have also been updated [121]. PVC - **Market trend**: PVC is strong in the short - term but has limited upward space. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of PVC futures and spot have changed, and it is affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and inventory [129][130][131]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market situation**: Fuel oil turns strong and is easy to rise and difficult to fall, and low - sulfur fuel oil follows the upward trend. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures and spot have changed [134]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Market performance**: The 2602 contract may make up the water price, and the far - month contracts should focus on the water - making up and geopolitical events. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of relevant contracts have changed, and the shipping capacity and freight rates have also been affected [136][142][143]. Agricultural Products Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Market situation**: Short - fiber and bottle chip are in a short - term oscillation. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of short - fiber and bottle - chip futures and spot have changed [146][147]. Offset Printing Paper - **Market performance**: It is advisable to wait and see for offset printing paper. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of offset printing paper futures and spot have changed, and the market demand is weak [149][150][152]. Pure Benzene - **Market situation**: Pure benzene is in a short - term oscillation. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of pure benzene futures and spot have changed, and the port inventory has increased [153][154]. Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil - **Market performance**: Palm oil is affected by macro - emotions, soybean oil is in a range - bound operation, and rapeseed oil shows corresponding price changes. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of relevant futures and spot have changed, and relevant industry data have also been updated [157][158][159]. Soybean Meal and Soybeans - **Market situation**: Soybean meal may oscillate, and soybeans are in an oscillation. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of soybean meal and soybean futures and spot have changed, and the market is affected by factors such as Chinese purchases and USDA reports [162][163][164]. Corn - **Market performance**: Attention should be paid to the corn spot. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of corn futures and spot have changed, and the market is affected by factors such as spot prices and import information [165][166][167]. Sugar - **Market situation**: Sugar is in a low - level consolidation. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of sugar futures and spot have changed, and the market is affected by factors such as production and import [169][170][171]. Cotton - **Market performance**: Cotton remains strong. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of cotton futures and spot have changed, and the market is affected by factors such as spot trading and textile enterprise operations [174][175]. Eggs - **Market situation**: The far - month sentiment of eggs weakens. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of egg futures and spot have changed, and relevant industry data have also been updated [178]. Hogs - **Market performance**: There is still inventory accumulation for hogs. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of hog futures and spot have changed, and relevant industry data have also been updated [181][183][184]. Peanuts - **Market situation**: Peanuts are in an oscillating operation. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of peanut futures and spot have changed, and the spot market price is relatively stable [187][188].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the fundamental situation may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and stable demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamental situation may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and off - season demand. The aluminum price remains high - oscillating due to positive macro expectations. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - long trading on dips and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamental situation may be in a stage of converging supply and weakening demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 24,335.00 yuan/ton, up 690.00 yuan; the main contract position of Shanghai Aluminum was 253,076.00 hands, down 8056.00 hands. The closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,818.00 yuan/ton, up 48.00 yuan; the main contract position of alumina was 429,905.00 hands, up 19,914.00 hands. The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 22,995.00 yuan/ton, up 475.00 yuan; the main contract position of cast aluminum alloy was 20,162.00 hands, up 1,863.00 hands [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The spread between the main and the second - consecutive contracts of Shanghai Aluminum was - 110.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan; the spread between the main and the second - consecutive contracts of alumina was - 130.00 yuan/ton, down 15.00 yuan; the spread between the main and the second - consecutive contracts of cast aluminum alloy was - 250.00 yuan/ton, down 140.00 yuan. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation was 3,085.50 US dollars/ton, up 64.50 US dollars; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.89, up 0.06 [2]. - **Inventories**: LME aluminum cancelled warrants were 59,275.00 tons, unchanged; LME aluminum inventories were 506,750.00 tons, down 2,500.00 tons; Shanghai Aluminum SHFE inventories were 129,818.00 tons, up 1,310.00 tons; cast aluminum alloy SHFE inventories were 73,793.00 tons, up 553.00 tons; Shanghai Aluminum SHFE warrants were 84,204.00 tons, up 1,408.00 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum was 23,910.00 yuan/ton, up 600.00 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 23,100.00 yuan/ton, up 650.00 yuan; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum was 23,340.00 yuan/ton, up 610.00 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 505.00 yuan/ton, down 205.00 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 425.00 yuan/ton, down 90.00 yuan; the basis of alumina was - 208.00 yuan/ton, down 48.00 yuan [2]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: The Shanghai Wuma Aluminum premium/discount was - 220.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount was - 27.69 US dollars/ton, down 2.75 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Prices and Quantities**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 18,200.00 yuan/ton, up 700.00 yuan; the average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal scrap was 17,450.00 yuan/ton, up 400.00 yuan. China's import quantity of aluminum scrap and fragments was 162,756.17 tons, up 4,396.16 tons; the export quantity was 71.53 tons, up 39.07 tons [2]. - **Production and Utilization**: Alumina production was 813.80 million tons, up 27.30 million tons; the national alumina start - up rate was 83.32%, down 1.05%; the alumina capacity utilization rate was 86.51%, down 0.45% [2]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance was - 10.87 million tons, up 8.34 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 66.20 million tons, up 7.30 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Production and Capacity**: The production of aluminum products was 593.10 million tons, up 23.70 million tons; the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 70.00 million tons, up 9.17 million tons. The total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,524.20 million tons, up 1.00 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum start - up rate was 98.21%, down 0.03% [2]. - **Import and Export**: The import quantity of primary aluminum was 146,109.72 tons, down 101,652.54 tons; the export quantity of primary aluminum was 53,047.69 tons, up 28,474.13 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Production**: The production of aluminum alloy was 173.90 million tons, unchanged; the production of automobiles was 351.90 million vehicles, up 24.00 million vehicles [2]. - **Index**: The National Housing Prosperity Index was 91.90, down 0.52 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 19.03%, up 1.98%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 15.44%, up 1.49% [2]. - **Implied Volatility and Ratio**: The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 25.26%, up 0.0366; the call - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options was 1.64, down 0.0467 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The US ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 slightly decreased from 48.2 to 47.9, remaining below 50 for 10 consecutive months and reaching a new low since October 2024 [2]. - Premier Li Qiang conducted research in Guangdong, emphasizing the improvement of the industrial ecosystem, cultivation of application scenarios, and exploration of business models for new technologies and products such as robots and drones [2]. - Nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued a document to implement the green consumption promotion action, with 20 specific measures in 7 aspects [2]. - The preliminary estimate of the new - energy vehicle wholesale volume of national passenger car manufacturers in December 2025 was 1.57 million, a 4% year - on - year increase and an 8% month - on - month decrease. The cumulative wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in 2025 was 15.33 million, a 25% year - on - year increase [2]. - Gree Electric Appliance promised not to raise the price of household air - conditioners and had no plan for "aluminum instead of copper" [2].

格隆汇1月6日｜高盛发表中国商品报告，预期今年中国大宗商品需求将进入较稳定阶段，年增率大多介 于负1.3%至正2%之间，并从去年下半年起逐季缓步回升。下游需求面临减速压力，主要因为以旧换新 刺激政策转变产品焦点，但房地产行业影响及关税不确定性带来的风险亦已减轻。对大多数大宗商品而 言，供需平衡基本面稳健，宏观环境看来有利。但鉴于去年现货价格强劲及相关股份表现优异，预期供 应前景边际变化，将决定未来价格与利润率方向，并将由供应纪律与应对、反内卷及与并购及资产注入 三大关键主题主导。在个别商品方面，对水泥和煤炭看法逐步转向更乐观，对钢铁和铝则更趋审慎，并 维持对铜和黄金的正面看法，以及对锂和纸类包装的审慎立场。 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.06 地缘局势增加供给不确定性 [Table_Industry] 有色金属 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 李鹏飞(分析师) | 010-83939783 | lipengfei2@gtht.com | S0880519080003 | | 魏雨迪(分析师) | 021-38674763 | weiyudi@gtht.com | S0880520010002 | | 刘小华(分析师) | 021-38038434 | liuxiaohua@gtht.com | S0880523120003 | | 王宏玉(分析师) | 021-38038343 | wanghongyu@gtht.com | S0880523060005 | | 梁琳(分析师) | 021-23185845 | lianglin@gtht.com | S0880525070014 | | 李阳(分析师) | 021-23185618 | liyang7@gtht.com | S088052 ...

Industry Overview Upstream - Energy: The price of liquefied natural gas has declined [2] - Agriculture: The price of pork has slightly rebounded [2] - Non-ferrous metals: The prices of aluminum, nickel, copper, and zinc have significantly rebounded [2] Midstream - Chemical industry: The PX operating rate reached a seasonal high yesterday, while other chemical products were at a low level [2] - Energy: The coal consumption of power plants was at a seasonal low [2] Downstream - Real estate: The sales of commercial housing in first- and second-tier cities continued to recover [2] - Services: The number of domestic flights increased [2] Key Industry Price Indicators Agriculture - Spot price of corn: 2,248.6 yuan/ton, -0.06% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of eggs: 6.4 yuan/kg, 0.63% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of palm oil: 8,480.0 yuan/ton, -0.98% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of cotton: 15,602.8 yuan/ton, 0.35% year-on-year [34] - Average wholesale price of pork: 18.0 yuan/kg, 2.10% year-on-year [34] Non-ferrous Metals - Spot price of copper: 100,653.3 yuan/ton, 6.06% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of zinc: 23,952.0 yuan/ton, 3.87% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of aluminum: 23,323.3 yuan/ton, 5.98% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of nickel: 139,250.0 yuan/ton, 6.66% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of aluminum: 17,343.8 yuan/ton, 0.40% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of rebar: 3,228.0 yuan/ton, -0.09% year-on-year [34] Ferrous Metals - Spot price of iron ore: 817.1 yuan/ton, 1.02% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of wire rod: 3,492.5 yuan/ton, 0.72% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of glass: 12.8 yuan/square meter, -0.23% year-on-year [34] Non-metals - Spot price of natural rubber: 15,575.0 yuan/ton, 1.08% year-on-year [34] - China Plastic City Price Index: 752.7, 0.30% year-on-year [34] Energy - Spot price of WTI crude oil: 57.3 US dollars/barrel, 1.02% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of Brent crude oil: 60.8 US dollars/barrel, 0.25% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of liquefied natural gas: 3,238.0 yuan/ton, -2.18% year-on-year [34] - Coal price: 795.0 yuan/ton, -0.75% year-on-year [34] Chemical Industry - Spot price of PTA: 5,079.1 yuan/ton, 0.45% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of polyethylene : 6,410.0 yuan/ton, 0.52% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of urea: 1,725.0 yuan/ton, -1.85% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of soda ash: 1,208.6 yuan/ton, -1.40% year-on-year [34] - National cement price index: 135.3, -0.57% year-on-year [34] Real Estate - Building materials composite index: 115.3 points, -0.09% year-on-year [34] - National concrete price index: 90.4 points, 0.00% year-on-year [34] Other Information Production Industry - On the afternoon of January 5th, Chinese President Xi Jinping held talks with South Korean President Lee Jae-myung in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. The two sides emphasized strengthening cooperation in emerging fields such as artificial intelligence, green industries, and the silver economy [1] Service Industry - The application for the child-raising subsidy in 2026 has been fully open since January 5th. As of 12:00 on the 5th, the child-raising subsidy information management system was operating smoothly. The biggest change in the online application for the 2026 child-raising subsidy is the addition of a renewal function. As of now, all 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in China have issued the 2025 child-raising subsidy, with a cumulative number of over 24 million people, and the issuance rate in 2025 reached about 80% [1]