证券研究报告|2025年12月22日 资配跨年展望 春季躁动，你想知道的一切 资产配置研究·深度报告 证券分析师：陈凯畅 021-60375429 chengkaichang@guosen.com.cn S0980523090002 证券分析师：王开 021-60933132 wangkai8@guosen.com.cn S0980521030001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 01 全球资产 02 AH大势 03 风格 04 行业规律 05 技术实操 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 全球权益资产的"跨年行情"或"春季躁动"是否成立 核心观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 全球资产的"跨年红包"与"春季行情"。1）季节效应上看，历年Q4全球主要市场股指涨幅更高，海外央行年末释放鸽派信号、外企 "岁末双薪"入市，圣诞假风偏提升驱动全球权益资产的"跨年红包"行情；2）大宗商品方面，Q1季节性偏强，黄金Q1强于Q4，银、 铜Q4强于Q1，布油四个季度表现逐季递减，受 OPEC 配额调整、冬季取暖和春季出行预期影响，一季度弹性偏大；3）全球资产如何共 振，中国"春季 ...

Macro Research - Commodity performance shows copper and gold are strong, while developed markets outperform emerging markets [1][2] - The US job market remains weak but stable, with inflation growth below expectations, leading the Federal Reserve to potentially pause interest rate cuts [1][3] - The Bank of Japan raised rates by 25 basis points as expected, with future gradual increases anticipated [1][4] - The European Central Bank's rate cut cycle may be nearing its end [1][4] Food and Beverage Research - Dongpeng Beverage is enhancing management efficiency, allowing the company to save significant profits to return to channels and consumers, aligning with the trend of consumers valuing high cost-performance in the beverage industry [1][5] - The company is expected to exceed market expectations in product category expansion, particularly in energy drinks, sports drinks, and coffee [5][6] Nuclear Power Equipment Research - The controllable nuclear fusion sector is seeing significant acceleration in bidding, with major contracts awarded for components like magnets and power supplies [1][8] - Trump Media Technology announced a merger with TAE Technologies, aiming to build large fusion power plants to meet energy demands driven by AI [9][10] - The US Department of Energy is investing $87 million to accelerate AI applications in fusion energy research [9][10]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.61% as of 10:28 AM, with a trading volume of 569.38 million shares and a transaction value of 882.9 billion yuan, representing a 0.05% increase from the previous trading day [1]. Industry Performance - The top-performing sectors included: - **Communication**: Up by 3.03%, with a transaction value of 810.58 billion yuan, and leading stock Longxin Bochuang rising by 13.79% [1]. - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Increased by 2.20%, with a transaction value of 585.13 billion yuan, and leading stock Silver Nonferrous rising by 9.85% [1]. - **Comprehensive**: Rose by 2.19%, with a transaction value of 26.43 billion yuan, and leading stock Zhangzhou Development increasing by 10.05% [1]. - **Electronics**: Gained 2.15%, with a transaction value of 1,465.99 billion yuan, and leading stock Kema Technology up by 20.00% [1]. - The sectors with the largest declines included: - **Coal**: Decreased by 0.65%, with a transaction value of 36.19 billion yuan, and leading stock China Coal Energy down by 1.68% [2]. - **Beauty Care**: Fell by 0.43%, with a transaction value of 17.89 billion yuan, and leading stock Jiaheng Home Care down by 4.96% [2]. - **Media**: Also down by 0.43%, with a transaction value of 160.88 billion yuan, and leading stock Bona Film down by 10.03% [2]. Summary of Key Stocks - Leading stocks in the top-performing sectors showed significant gains, such as: - Longxin Bochuang in Communication with a rise of 13.79% [1]. - Kema Technology in Electronics with a rise of 20.00% [1]. - Zhangzhou Development in Comprehensive with a rise of 10.05% [1]. - Conversely, leading stocks in declining sectors experienced notable losses, including: - Bona Film in Media with a drop of 10.03% [2]. - Jiaheng Home Care in Beauty Care with a drop of 4.96% [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the social services industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the activation of cross-border trade and duty-free consumption in Hainan following the official launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port on December 18, 2025, which is expected to enhance the investment environment for high-end manufacturing and biomedicine sectors [14][21] - The short drama market is experiencing significant growth, with overseas short drama in-app purchases projected to reach $3.8 billion in 2025, reflecting a 153% year-on-year increase, indicating a shift in content consumption patterns [22][25] - The fashion consumption sector is evolving, with professional sports brands like Lululemon becoming new benchmarks for the middle class, driven by the integration of functionality, fashion expression, and lifestyle [32][33] - The "oil skincare" segment is witnessing high growth, with Lin Qingxuan emerging as the leading brand, achieving a 212% growth in GMV across three platforms in 2025 [40][41] Summary by Sections Hainan Free Trade Port - The Hainan Free Trade Port's launch has led to a direct increase in cross-border trade, with zero tariff policies driving significant growth in imports, particularly in high-end manufacturing and biomedicine [14][15] - Duty-free sales have surged, with a 61% year-on-year increase in shopping amounts on the first day of the port's operation, indicating strong consumer demand [15][18] Short Drama Market - The overseas short drama market is projected to exceed traditional film box office revenues, with a notable increase in demand from the Middle East, which is becoming a new market for Chinese short dramas [22][27] - The platform DramaBite, under Chi Zi Cheng Technology, has seen significant user engagement, with 3.46 million downloads in the past year [30] Fashion Consumption - The report identifies three key trends in fashion consumption: the integration of sports into daily life, the rise of outdoor brands as fashion symbols, and the awakening of specific consumer needs for tailored products [32] - Online sales for professional sports brands have shown remarkable growth, with Lululemon achieving over 5 billion yuan in online sales and maintaining a 51% growth rate [33][36] Oil Skincare Segment - The "oil skincare" market is projected to grow significantly, with the market size for facial and eye oils expected to exceed 11 billion yuan by 2025, driven by changing consumer perceptions [40][42] - Lin Qingxuan leads the market with a 12.4% share, supported by a robust supply chain and innovative product development [41][60]

Group 1 - The core view of the report emphasizes that the market is in a phase of stabilization, with expectations for market stability strengthening, but this does not determine the height of the market, indicating a continuation of the oscillating pattern [2][38] - The report notes that the A-share index remains near the levels before the significant drop on November 21, suggesting that there is a buildup of profit-taking pressure at this point [2][38] - The report highlights that the recent market fluctuations have led to a significant net inflow into broad-based ETFs, particularly those tracking the CSI A500, which indicates a positive response to stabilization policies [17][19] Group 2 - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in sectors such as new energy, consumer goods, and dividend stocks, with new energy being a strong sector this year, although it has not fully recovered since the drop on November 21 [3][40] - The technology sector is noted to have a foundation for rebound, as structural risks have eased significantly, with indicators showing a decrease in concentration and high-priced stocks [44][46] - The report discusses the challenges faced by convertible bonds, particularly those nearing maturity, which are experiencing pressure due to time value decay and market aging, suggesting a need for cautious investment strategies [50][54][65]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market is currently in a high-level oscillation state, with the index needing to transition from a liquidity-driven bull market to a fundamentals-driven bull market to stabilize above 4000 points [1][2] - The report assesses that most core A-share indices have a PE valuation percentile above 70%, indicating limited room for a cross-year rally due to the lack of further liquidity easing [1][2] - The report highlights that the current market structure is characterized by rapid sector rotation, with retail and social services sectors performing well, while the overall market lacks a clear mainline [1][2] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining a relaxed investment mindset strategically, as only about 60% of the time in a year has a clear mainline, while the remaining 40% is often characterized by chaotic sector rotation [1][2] - The report suggests that tactical identification of clues is crucial, as new mainlines often emerge amidst confusion, and investors should avoid hasty decisions that could lead to losses [2] - The report notes that the current high-low switching market is nearing its end, and a new mainline is likely to form, with potential scenarios including tightening liquidity or new capital inflows [2] Group 3 - The report states that the A-share market's pricing structure is shifting from "new winning over old" to "new and old dancing together," indicating a focus on structural changes in technology and traditional industries [3] - It highlights that the technology sector is currently sensitive to positive news but more reactive to negative news, with AI applications being a key area for potential investment [3] - The report mentions that traditional industries are recovering from the negative impacts of the real estate sector, with profit growth expected in Q3 2025, suggesting a positive outlook for 2026 [3] Group 4 - The report indicates that the current market is experiencing a high degree of sector rotation, with the mainline clarity index at 48%, suggesting that the market is still in a chaotic state [1][2][3] - It emphasizes that the end of the high-low market phase is normal, and historical patterns suggest that such phases last about 3-4 weeks, with a focus on cross-year market positioning [1][2][3] - The report also notes that the technology sector is expected to regain its leading position in the market, particularly in the context of global AI trends and the performance of US tech stocks [3][4]

Group 1 - The Shenzhen Shui Bei market has removed the display of "investment gold" following the new tax policy on gold, indicating stricter market management [2] - Elon Musk commented on a report highlighting severe issues within the U.S. welfare system, noting that federal welfare spending has surged by 765%, costing $1.4 trillion annually [3] - The online reporting system for foreign entry cards in Shanghai has seen over 260,000 foreign travelers use it within the first month of implementation, accounting for 50% of eligible travelers [3] Group 2 - Musk praised China's significant progress in solar power generation, with an increase of over 500 TWh in total power generation, including a rise of approximately 350 TWh in solar energy [4] - Xiaomi has distributed over 100 million yuan in subsidies to national car dealers, with specific conditions for new store constructions, aiming to expand its automotive service network [6] - NASA has lost contact with the MAVEN Mars orbiter, which has been operational for about 10 years, and efforts are underway to re-establish communication [7] Group 3 - CITIC Securities' chief economist emphasized the need for the capital market to shift from "valuation enhancement" to "profit support" to achieve sustainable growth [8] - Tencent's chief scientist discussed the importance of integrating physical and cognitive capabilities in robotics to develop true embodied intelligence [9] - Micro Light Co. has established partnerships with several robotics companies, although specific client details remain undisclosed [10] Group 4 - GD Helicopter Finance announced the acquisition of NHV Group, with the deal expected to close in the first quarter of 2026, pending regulatory approvals [11] - The film "Avatar 3" has surpassed 200 million yuan in box office revenue in mainland China [12] - Mixue Ice City has opened its first store in the U.S., located in Hollywood, Los Angeles, marking a significant step in its international expansion [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the media industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the significant growth potential of the AI sector, particularly through the case of Zhipu, which is set to submit its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The revenue projections for Zhipu from 2022 to 2024 show a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 130%, with revenues expected to reach 3.12 billion RMB by 2024 [4] - The report emphasizes the strategic partnerships and collaborations within the media industry, particularly between Zhipu and Huace Film & TV, which aims to leverage AI for content generation and review processes [6][8] - The report outlines the expected growth of the Chinese large language model market, predicting it will reach 101.1 billion RMB by 2030, driven primarily by institutional clients [4] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The media sector has shown mixed performance over different time frames, with a 1-month performance of 0.3%, a 3-month decline of 6.7%, and a 12-month increase of 11.9% compared to the CSI 300 index [1] Financial Projections - Zhipu's revenue forecasts indicate a growth trajectory from 0.57 billion RMB in 2022 to 3.12 billion RMB in 2024, while net profits are projected to be negative due to high R&D and computing costs [4] - The gross margin for Zhipu is expected to fluctuate, with estimates of 54.6% in 2022, 64.6% in 2023, and 56.3% in 2024, reflecting the company's focus on high-value services [4] Strategic Partnerships - Huace Film & TV has invested 100 million RMB in Zhipu and is collaborating on AI-driven content generation and review systems, aiming to set industry standards [6][8] - The partnership is expected to enhance Zhipu's brand influence and technological capabilities within the media sector [8] Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the IPO of Zhipu will catalyze a new phase of capital investment in the AI large model sector, potentially accelerating commercialization across the industry [10] - The report also notes that the growth of Zhipu could serve as a benchmark for other emerging AI companies in China [9]

Regulatory Updates - The National Development and Reform Commission, the State Administration for Market Regulation, and the National Internet Information Office have established rules to regulate pricing behavior on internet platforms, aiming to protect consumer rights and promote healthy development of the platform economy [1] Company Performance - ByteDance is reported to potentially achieve a net profit of approximately $500 million for the year after accumulating about $400 million in the first three quarters of 2025, although insiders claim these figures are inaccurate [3] - Xiaomi has distributed over 100 million yuan in subsidies to national car dealers, with conditions for new store constructions in 2024 and 2025, indicating a strategic move to support its automotive business [3] Market Developments - Meituan's drone delivery service has completed 740,000 commercial orders, highlighting the competitive landscape in instant retail and the expected market growth in low-altitude delivery services [10] - The launch of the first store of Mixue Ice Cream in Los Angeles, with prices significantly lower than local competitors, marks the brand's entry into the American market [10] Technological Innovations - Apple is reportedly working on its first foldable iPhone, aiming for a "visual no crease" design, with a potential launch in September 2024 [12] - The release of the first AI laptop by Moore Threads, featuring a 2D digital human, showcases advancements in AI integration within consumer electronics [18][19] Financial Milestones - Elon Musk's net worth surged to $749 billion following the reinstatement of a previously canceled $139 billion Tesla stock option plan by the Delaware Supreme Court, making him the first person to exceed $700 billion in wealth [9][15]

Core Points - The national cultural talent work symposium and the commendation conference for advanced collectives and individuals in the national publicity system were held in Beijing on December 20 [1] - Seven collectives and eighteen individuals from the province were recognized as advanced collectives and individuals in the national publicity system [1] Group 1 - The commendation was jointly conducted by the Central Propaganda Department, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, and the National Radio and Television Administration [1] - The recognized collectives include the Liaoning Provincial Propaganda Department's Literary and Art Division, Liaoning Broadcasting and Television Group's News Center, and others [1] - The recognized individuals include Zhang Ping, the temporary head of the "Remember" working group at the Dandong Media Center, among others [1] Group 2 - The recognition of these collectives and individuals showcases the positive spirit of the province's publicity and cultural front [1] - The publicity and cultural workers are encouraged to take these individuals as role models and to undertake new cultural missions [1] - The aim is to create a new situation in publicity and cultural work, contributing to the construction of a culturally strong province and supporting the modernization of Liaoning [1]