电新行业 24 年报及 25 年一季报业绩总结 20250507 摘要 • 2025 年一季度新能源行业营收小幅增长，但盈利能力持续下滑，主要受 光伏板块拖累，需关注光伏行业产能过剩及政策调控对市场的影响。 • 新能源车板块复苏势头良好，一季度营收和净利润均实现显著增长，其中 电池子行业表现稳健，但三元正极材料和电解液子行业盈利承压。 • 风电行业迎来拐点，产能利用率上升，订单充足，但主机厂盈利修复滞后， 需关注二三季度主机厂制造业务盈利拐点。 • 储能板块需求良好，一季度收入和利润均实现正增长，是新能源发电板块 中表现相对较好的子行业。 • 电力设备行业整体稳健增长，特高压和智能化是主要驱动力，出海业务潜 力巨大，相关公司值得关注。 • 工控领域业绩显著提升，人形机器人领域展现良好市场潜力，但各子行业 发展不平衡，需关注特斯拉供应商及国内迭代速度快的企业。 • 风电产业链价格趋稳，海上风电装机预计翻倍，海外需求旺盛，长期逻辑 明确，关注头部企业及海缆管桩相关公司。 Q&A 请介绍一下去年（2024 年）和今年（2025 年）一季度新能源行业的整体业 绩情况。 去年（2024 年），新能源行业整体营收同比下滑 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tesla is facing significant challenges in both the Chinese and European markets, with declining sales and market share due to intensified competition and external factors affecting its performance [1][4][8]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In April, Tesla's delivery volume in China reached 58,459 units, marking a 6% year-over-year decline and a 25.8% decrease from March's 78,828 units [4][5]. - Tesla's global delivery volume for Q1 fell 13% year-over-year to 336,700 units, the lowest quarterly delivery since Q2 2022 [8]. - In Europe, Tesla's sales have plummeted, with the UK experiencing a 62% year-over-year drop and Germany seeing a 45.9% decline [8]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Tesla's revenue for Q1 was $19.335 billion, down 9% year-over-year, while net profit fell 71% to $409 million [8]. - The company's market capitalization has decreased significantly, currently standing at $886.246 billion, reflecting a year-to-date decline of over 31% in stock price [2]. Group 3: Market Competition - In the Chinese market, BYD has solidified its position as the leader, with April sales of 372,600 units, a 19.4% increase year-over-year [5]. - Other domestic competitors like Leap Motor, Xpeng, NIO, and Li Auto have also shown substantial growth, with year-over-year increases of 173%, 273%, 53%, and 31.6% respectively [5]. Group 4: Management and Strategic Response - Elon Musk is reportedly planning to refocus on Tesla, announcing that he will dedicate more time to the company starting in May [9]. - Despite the challenges, Goldman Sachs has maintained a "neutral" rating on Tesla, with a target price of $235, emphasizing the importance of Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) software for its future [10][11].

『产品运作』 积极调整持仓，增配港股 Q：泉果思源整体运作情况如何？ 2025年一季度，产品整体维持高仓位运作，股票仓位占基金资产净值的比例为84.83%，其中港股占比19.09%。在行业分布上，秉持均衡分散的思路，选择 质地较好、产业逻辑通顺、未来两到三年内确定性较高的公司进行投资，主要布局在消费电子、互联网、新能源、地产、家电、周期等。 一季度，产品根据市场表现做出了部分调整，减仓了部分涨幅达到预期的AI应用、金融等，加仓了出口业务预喜的摩托车公司，以及供给侧出清、需求提 升、有成本优势的电解铝公司。 产品最新前十大持仓如下： | 股票名称 | 占基金净值比(%) | | --- | --- | | 立讯精密 | 9.19 | | 腾讯控股 | 9.08 | | 宁德时代 | 9.07 | | 快手－W | 5.27 | | 保利发展 | 3.89 | | 招商蛇口 | 3.74 | | 美的集团 | 3.64 | | 太阳纸业 | 3.26 | | 九号公司 | 3.18 | | 天山铝业 | 3.05 | 注：持仓及比例信息来自2025年一季报。前十大重仓股采用申万二级行业分类，不代表当前和未来持仓以 ...

Group 1 - The recent monetary policy adjustments, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, have significantly benefited the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets, particularly the technology sector [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index experienced a 17% increase in 2025, matching its performance from 2024, while the Hong Kong technology sector rose by 23% year-to-date, outperforming both the Hang Seng Technology Index and last year's 21% annual return [1][2] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange's technology-focused ETF, the Hong Kong Technology 50 ETF, saw a remarkable 24% increase in 2025, with a trading volume turnover rate of 25% on May 7, indicating strong investor interest [2][3] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Technology 50 ETF has recorded a 66% increase over the past six months, suggesting a robust liquidity-driven bull market, with potential for a repeat of the 2020 bull market in the technology sector [3] - The earnings recovery for the Hong Kong stock market in the second half of 2024 is projected to show a 12.6% year-on-year increase for the Hang Seng Index and a 57.2% increase for the Hang Seng Technology Index, indicating significant performance improvement in the technology sector [3] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for Hong Kong technology stocks stands at 22.69, which is at the 20% historical percentile, suggesting that valuations are relatively low compared to U.S. technology stocks, which often exceed a P/E of 40 [4][5]

Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a strong opening on May 6, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing above 3300 points, up by 1.13% to 3316.11 points [1][2] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.84% to 10082.34 points, while the ChiNext Index increased by 1.97% to 1986.41 points [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 166.8 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - Key sectors that saw significant gains included controllable nuclear fusion, rare earth permanent magnets, Hongmeng, and CPO, while a few sectors like banking experienced declines [1] International Market Overview - The U.S. stock market saw declines on May 6, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 0.95% to 40829.00 points, the S&P 500 down by 0.77% to 5606.91 points, and the Nasdaq Composite decreasing by 0.87% to 17689.66 points [2][4] - In Europe, the FTSE 100 index in the UK rose slightly by 0.01%, while the CAC40 in France and the DAX in Germany fell by 0.40% and 0.41%, respectively [2] Commodity Prices - International oil prices saw a notable increase, with light crude oil futures for June rising by $1.96 to $59.09 per barrel, a 3.43% increase, and Brent crude for July up by $1.92 to $62.15 per barrel, a 3.19% increase [3][4] Aviation Industry Insights - During the "May Day" holiday, China's civil aviation transported over 11.15 million passengers, averaging 2.23 million per day, marking an 11.8% increase compared to 2024 [8] - The demand for travel was strong, particularly between major urban clusters, with some regional airports experiencing passenger throughput growth exceeding 100% [8] Automotive Industry Trends - In April, BYD led the domestic new energy vehicle sales with 380,100 units, followed by Geely with 125,600 units, reflecting a 144% year-on-year increase [9] - The market is expected to see a surge in demand as new models are launched, supported by government incentives for vehicle trade-ins [9] Semiconductor and Technology Sector - The focus remains on intelligent driving chips within the new energy vehicle and smart driving sectors, with expectations for growth driven by increased industry penetration and improved profitability [10]

2025 年 5 月 6 日 电力设备与新能源行业研究 买入（维持评级） 行业月报 证券研究报告 新能源与电力设备组 分析师：姚遥（执业 S1130512080001） yaoy＠gjzq.com.cn 锂电 4 月洞察：电车储能销量持续走高，钴价止涨正极盈利企稳 本月行业重要变化： 1）锂电：4 月 30 日，碳酸锂报价 7.0 万元/吨，较上月下降 4.8%；氢氧化锂报价 7.0 万元/吨，较上月下降 0.4%。 2）整车：2025 年 3 月国内新能源乘用车批发销量达 113 万辆，同比+35.5%，环比+35.9%；1～3 月累计批发 285 万辆， 同比+43%。 行情回顾： 2025 年 4 月以来，锂电关联板块中除新能源车环节外，均有不同幅度的下跌，磷酸铁锂正极、锂电铜箔和柴发产业链 等环节跌幅较大，相对沪深 300 的涨跌幅超额分别为-8%、-7%和-5%。多数环节月度成交额较上月大幅下跌，只有新 能源车的月度成交额环比提升，市场关注度不减。锂电关联版块多数环节 3 年历史估值分位处于低值，锂电电解液、 负极和智能驾驶的 3 年历史估值分位仅个位数区间，未来存在估值修复的空间。 本月研究专题： ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the photovoltaic and wind energy sectors, highlighting a recovery in profitability and growth potential in these industries [2][8]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies in promoting the use of advanced photovoltaic components, which is seen as a viable solution to address the issue of excess production capacity in the solar industry [7][8]. - The wind energy sector is experiencing a significant uptick in construction activity, with the first offshore wind project in Shandong officially commencing, indicating a positive trend in the industry [2][8]. - The report notes that the performance of the photovoltaic and storage sectors is stabilizing, with signs of a turning point in profitability expected in the near future [2][7]. Summary by Relevant Sections Photovoltaic & Energy Storage - The National Energy Administration has issued a notice to encourage the use of advanced photovoltaic components in large-scale projects, which is expected to enhance the competitiveness of the domestic photovoltaic manufacturing industry [7][8]. - The photovoltaic sector is projected to maintain high demand in 2024, with an expected 277 GW of new installations, representing a 28% year-on-year increase [7][8]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a significant increase in new installations, with 60 GW added, marking a 31% year-on-year growth [7][8]. Wind Energy - The Shandong Peninsula North L offshore wind project has officially started construction, contributing to the acceleration of offshore wind development in China [2][8]. - The wind energy sector reported a net profit of 12.5 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, marking the first year-on-year profit increase in three years [2][8]. - The report highlights three main investment themes in the wind energy sector: improvement in profitability of turbine manufacturers, rising demand for offshore wind, and the release of profit elasticity in component prices [2][8]. Power Grid - The State Grid's second batch of bidding results for transmission and transformation equipment reached 17.64 billion yuan, a 13% year-on-year increase, indicating accelerated main grid construction [3][9]. - The report mentions the release of new bidding projects for distribution transformers and integrated products, with an estimated total bidding amount exceeding 6.5 billion yuan [3][9]. - The introduction of the basic rules for the auxiliary service market marks a significant step towards the market-oriented reform of power services in China [9][10]. New Energy Vehicles - The launch of the Lynk & Co 900, a six-seat plug-in hybrid SUV, has exceeded market expectations with a competitive pricing strategy [14][16]. - The report notes a significant increase in the sales of new energy vehicles, with a retail penetration rate of 52.3% in April 2025 [14][16]. Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cells - The report indicates that hydrogen energy policies are expected to continue, with a focus on quality development and the promotion of the entire hydrogen industry chain [12][15]. - The hydrogen production capacity is projected to reach 120,000 tons per year by 2025, with significant growth in fuel cell vehicle production [12][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for key companies in the electric new energy sector, including 宁德时代 (CATL), 科达利 (Kodali), and 中科电气 (Zhongke Electric) among others [3][24]. Core Insights - The overall fund holding ratio in the electric new energy sector has decreased, with a fund holding ratio of 9.20% as of Q1 2025, down by 1.35 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1][7]. - The electric new energy sector's market capitalization accounted for 5.29% of the total market capitalization, reflecting a slight increase of 0.18 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1][7]. - The report highlights a shift in fund holdings towards the electric vehicle and power equipment sectors, while the renewable energy generation sector has seen a deeper adjustment [2][14]. Summary by Sections Overall Sector Analysis - As of Q1 2025, the fund holding ratio for the electric new energy sector is 11.87%, down by 0.56 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1][7]. - The market capitalization of electric new energy stocks in the A-share market is 7.78%, up by 0.61 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1][7]. Subsector Analysis - The fund holding ratio for the electric vehicle sector is 8.65%, up by 0.11 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, while the renewable energy generation sector's holding ratio is 1.82%, down by 0.67 percentage points [2][14]. - The power equipment and industrial control sector has a fund holding ratio of 1.50%, up by 0.06 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2][14]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the electric vehicle sector include 宁德时代 (CATL), 科达利 (Kodali), and 中科电气 (Zhongke Electric) [2][24]. - For the power equipment and industrial control sector, recommended stocks include 许继电气 (XJ Electric), 平高电气 (Pinggao Electric), and 思源电气 (Siyuan Electric) [2][24]. - In the renewable energy sector, recommended stocks include 东方电缆 (Oriental Cable), 海力风电 (Haili Wind Power), and 阳光电源 (Sungrow Power) [2][24]. Key Company Forecasts - 宁德时代 (CATL) is projected to have an EPS of 11.58 yuan in 2024, with a PE ratio of 20, and is rated as a "Buy" [3][24]. - 科达利 (Kodali) is expected to have an EPS of 5.44 yuan in 2024, with a PE ratio of 24, and is also rated as a "Buy" [3][24]. - 中科电气 (Zhongke Electric) is forecasted to have an EPS of 0.44 yuan in 2024, with a PE ratio of 34, and is rated as a "Buy" [3][24].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown strong performance with significant increases in major indices, driven by sectors such as new energy vehicles and artificial intelligence, while the overall market sentiment remains optimistic due to supportive policies and capital inflows [2][5][8]. Market Performance - The A-share market opened strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index recovering above 3300 points, reaching a new high in nearly a month, while the Shenzhen Component Index surpassed 10000 points. The total market turnover increased to 1.36 trillion yuan, with over 5000 stocks rising [2][4]. - Key indices and their performance include: - Shanghai Composite Index: 3316.11, up 1.13%, turnover of 551.83 billion yuan - Shenzhen Component Index: 10082.34, up 1.84%, turnover of 784.37 billion yuan - ChiNext Index: 1986.41, up 1.97%, turnover of 362.53 billion yuan - CSI 300: 3808.54, up 1.01%, turnover of 267.94 billion yuan [4]. Sector Performance - Sectors such as controllable nuclear fusion, rare earth permanent magnets, new energy vehicles, and artificial intelligence saw significant gains, while only a few sectors like leisure food, banking, and medical beauty experienced slight declines [3][5]. - Notable capital inflows were observed in electronics and computers, with over 10 billion yuan net inflow, while banks and oil sectors saw net outflows [4]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the A-share market will continue to focus on domestic demand policies and tariff developments, with a potential for a volatile market environment. The main investment themes are expected to revolve around domestic demand and self-sufficiency [5]. - The new energy vehicle sector is experiencing a surge, with companies like BYD reporting a 21.33% year-on-year increase in April sales, while other manufacturers like Li Auto and Xpeng also reported significant growth [8]. - The artificial intelligence sector is witnessing a resurgence, with major stocks in the sector experiencing substantial gains, indicating a new wave of innovation driven by advancements in AI technology [10].

毫无悬念的是，4月，比亚迪以38.01万辆的成绩继续稳坐国内新能源车销量榜第一。其中，王朝网和海洋网累计销量为34.71万辆，腾势汽 车售出新车1.54万辆，方程豹月销超过1万辆，同比增长375.8%。 紧随其后的吉利汽车4月新能源（包含吉利、领克、极氪）销量为12.56万辆，同比增长144%。从销量占比来看，新能源销量已占吉利汽车 4月总销量的54%。吉利银河成为吉利新能源车的销量主力，4月销量逼近10万辆，同比增长281%。 在4月新能源销量的比拼上，奇瑞集团与长安汽车"不相上下"。其中长安汽车新能源车零售7.13万辆，同比增长46.7%。长安旗下三大新能 源品牌中深蓝汽车销量2.01万辆，同比增长58%；阿维塔销量1.17万辆，同比增长122.6%；启源销量也超过1万辆。 奇瑞集团销售新能源汽车6.12万辆，同比增长85.5%。其中旗下新能源车品牌iCAR销售汽车6947辆，智界品牌销售汽车4461辆。 相较之下，长城汽车4月的新能源车销量虽同比增长了28.42%，但总量仅为2.88万辆，不及多个造车新势力企业。零跑汽车继3月之后继续 摘得4月造车新势力销冠，其4月交付量为4.1万辆，同比增长173%。 ...