中国神华(01088)跌超4%，截至发稿，跌4.6%，报41.04港元，成交额2.75亿港元。 消息面上，1月30日晚，中国神华公布，预计集团2025年度的归属于公司所有者的本年利润为人民币508 亿元至人民币558亿元，与上年披露数据相比，下降18.6%至10.6%；与经重述的上年数据相比下降 14.7%至6.3%。公告指，2025年，集团生产经营态势保持平稳，一体化运营核心优势持续巩固，能源安 全稳定供应得到有力保障。但受行业供需形势变化影响，集团煤炭销售量及平均销售价格下降，导致经 营业绩同比下降。 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Shenhua (601088) shares fell over 4%, currently down 4.6% at HKD 41.04, with a trading volume of HKD 275 million [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - China Shenhua expects its profit attributable to shareholders for the fiscal year 2025 to be between RMB 50.8 billion and RMB 55.8 billion, representing a decline of 18.6% to 10.6% compared to the previous year's disclosed data [1] - Compared to the restated figures from the previous year, the expected profit decline is between 14.7% to 6.3% [1] Group 2: Operational Insights - The company indicates that its production and operational situation will remain stable in 2025, with core advantages of integrated operations continuing to be reinforced [1] - Energy security and stable supply are effectively guaranteed, despite the challenges faced [1] Group 3: Market Conditions - The decline in performance is attributed to changes in industry supply and demand dynamics, leading to a decrease in coal sales volume and average selling prices [1]

2月2日，中煤能源跌5.12%，截至发稿，报12.98元/股，成交3.61亿元，换手率0.30%，总市值1720.97亿 元。 资料显示，中国中煤能源股份有限公司位于北京市朝阳区黄寺大街1号，成立日期2006年8月22日，上市 日期2008年2月1日，公司主营业务涉及煤炭业务、煤化工业务及煤矿装备制造业务等。主营业务收入构 成为：煤炭业务81.03%，煤化工业务12.48%，煤矿装备业务6.24%，其他业务6.00%，金融业务1.57%， 其他(补充)0.63%。 从中煤能源十大流通股东角度 数据显示，国泰基金旗下1只基金位居中煤能源十大流通股东。国泰中证煤炭ETF（515220）三季度增 持4410.11万股，持有股数7250.71万股，占流通股的比例为0.55%。根据测算，今日浮亏损失约5075.5万 元。 国泰中证煤炭ETF（515220）成立日期2020年1月20日，最新规模86.4亿。今年以来收益9.98%，同类排 名1241/5579；近一年收益11.24%，同类排名3774/4285；成立以来收益164.17%。 数据显示，国泰基金旗下1只基金重仓中煤能源。国泰中证煤炭ETF（515220）四季 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.01 持仓略有提升，焦炭第一轮提价 [Table_Industry] 煤炭 煤炭行业周报 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄涛(分析师) | 021-38674879 | huangtao@gtht.com | S0880515090001 | | 王楠瑀(分析师) | 021-38032030 | wangnanyu@gtht.com | S0880525070029 | | 邓铖琦(分析师) | 010-83939825 | dengchengqi@gtht.com | S0880523050003 | 本报告导读： 我们认为煤炭板块周期底部已经确认在 25Q2，供需格局已经显现了逆转拐点，下行 风险充分释放。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 煤炭《Q4 基金持仓持续回升，板块拐点确认》 2026.01.30 煤炭《地产政策多部门联动稳预期，非电需求有 望修复》2026.01.25 煤炭《国泰海通煤炭行业基本面数据库大全 20260 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Coking Coal**: The current production of coking enterprises is still below expectations, and the actual demand for raw coal has not significantly improved. With the decline in hot metal production this week and weak rigid demand, the downstream market mainly replenishes inventory as needed. Considering the general demand for downstream finished products and the decline in steel mill profits, the downstream market has insufficient support for coking coal prices. It is expected that coking coal prices may remain stable in the short term [2]. - **Coke**: After the first round of coke price increase was finally implemented after a long - term game, the profit per ton of coke in coking plants has slightly increased. Most coking enterprises have maintained their previous operating rates, and coke supply is relatively stable. Under the background of weak demand, traders and steel mills are relatively cautious in purchasing, but the current transportation and shipment are smooth, and there is no obvious inventory pressure in the plants. It is expected that coke prices may remain stable and slightly strengthen in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Domestic coal mines maintain a stable production rhythm before the Spring Festival. Downstream winter storage and inventory replenishment are nearing completion, the purchase volume of coking coal is gradually decreasing, and the willingness of intermediate links to sell has increased. The market sentiment has slightly weakened. Recently, the online auction transactions have been average, with more price drops than increases. Coal mines with high prices have difficulty in selling, and some coal mines with slow price cuts still have price - make - up drops. However, since most coal mines have pre - sold orders and no inventory pressure, they have a strong willingness to hold prices. The evaluation is neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1180, and the basis is 24.5. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price. The evaluation is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 801000 tons, port inventory is 295000 tons, independent coking enterprise inventory is 861000 tons, and the total sample inventory is 1957000 tons, a decrease of 21000 tons from last week. The evaluation is bullish [2]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day moving average. The evaluation is neutral [3]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coking coal is net short, and the short position is decreasing. The evaluation is bearish [3]. Coke - **Fundamentals**: After the first round of coke price increase was implemented, the profit per ton of coke in coking plants has slightly increased. Most coking enterprises have maintained their previous operating rates, and coke supply is relatively stable. Under the background of weak demand, traders and steel mills are relatively cautious in purchasing, but the current transportation and shipment are smooth, and there is no obvious inventory pressure in the plants. The evaluation is bullish [7]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1620, and the basis is - 101.5. The spot price is at a discount to the futures price. The evaluation is bearish [7]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 626000 tons, port inventory is 187000 tons, independent coking enterprise inventory is 45000 tons, and the total sample inventory is 858000 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons from last week. The evaluation is bullish [7]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day moving average. The evaluation is bullish [7]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coke is net long, and the long position is increasing. The evaluation is bullish [7]. 3.2 Price Coking Coal - On January 30 (17:30), the price of imported Russian coking coal at various ports is provided, such as the price of K4 main coking coal at Caofeidian Port, Jingtang Port, and Rizhao Port is 1300. The price of imported Australian coking coal at various ports is also provided, like the price of Heishui 1/3 coking coal at Caofeidian Port and Rizhao Port is 1230 [10]. Coke - On January 30 (17:30), the port metallurgical coke price index shows that the prices of various grades of metallurgical coke at different ports have different changes, such as the price of secondary metallurgical coke from Inner Mongolia at a certain port increased by 50 [11]. 3.3 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 295000 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1000 tons from last week [19]. - **Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory**: Independent coking enterprise coking coal inventory is 819300 tons, a decrease of 69200 tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons from last week [23]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 803800 tons, an increase of 4300 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626700 tons, a decrease of 13300 tons from last week [28]. 3.4 Other Indicators - **Coking Plant Capacity Utilization Rate**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprise samples nationwide is 74.48% [41]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [45].

Summary of Conference Call on Coal Industry and Key Companies Industry Overview - The coal market is experiencing a new cycle with decreasing inventories and rising expectations for prices, driven by rising crude oil prices and geopolitical risks, indicating that coal is currently undervalued and has significant upside potential [1][3] - The overall performance of the coal industry in 2026 is expected to be optimistic, with a slight increase in coal prices leading to significant improvements in production and sales [6] Key Companies and Performance China Shenhua - Expected to achieve a profit of 49.5 to 54.5 billion yuan in 2025, with a quarterly profit of 12.95 billion yuan in Q4, aligning with market expectations [4][5] - Anticipated 10% growth in 2026 post-asset injection, potentially reaching 57 to 58 billion yuan, with a possible increase to 60 billion yuan if prices rise slightly [5] - Projected market capitalization could reach 1 trillion yuan, with dividend yields of 4.4% and 4.7% in A-shares and H-shares respectively [5] Shanxi Coking Coal - Forecasted profit for 2025 is between 970 million to 1.358 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 56.3% to 68.75% [5] - Expected to see a price increase in coking coal in 2026, indicating a potential turning point for performance [5] Panjiang Coal and Electricity - Projected profit for 2025 is between 318 million to 380 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 205.3% to 264.83% [5] - Q4 profit approached 400 million yuan, exceeding market expectations, indicating strong future growth potential [5] Huai Bei Mining - Expected to see significant growth in 2026, with total production capacity projected to reach 42.25 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 23.36% [15][18] - The company is also expected to benefit from its electricity business and sand and gravel aggregate operations, contributing to overall profitability [17][18] Market Dynamics - Recent trends show a divergence in prices: crude oil prices increased by 15.7%, natural gas by 9.4%, while coal prices decreased by 7.8% [3] - The demand for coal is expected to remain strong due to high consumption levels in power plants, with coal inventories at power plants decreasing by 2.4% week-on-week [9] - The cold wave in February is expected to maintain high daily consumption levels in power plants, further tightening supply and demand dynamics, which is favorable for coal prices [12] Investment Opportunities - The coal sector is viewed positively for investment, with recommendations for China Shenhua and Yanzhou Coal Mining as key stocks to watch [2][13] - Other companies with strong growth potential include Huai Bei Mining, which is expected to benefit from market trends and management initiatives [19] - The overall sentiment is optimistic, with expectations of price increases and improved performance across the coal sector in 2026 [14][19] Additional Insights - The geopolitical landscape, particularly tensions involving the U.S. and Iran, could further elevate crude oil prices, which historically correlate with coal prices [3] - The coal market is currently seen as undervalued, presenting a compelling investment opportunity as prices are expected to align with rising crude oil prices [3]

煤炭行业的边际利多因素正在逐渐累积 20260130 摘要 煤炭板块估值逻辑正从红利类债向包含看涨期权价值转变，市场预期潜 在上涨空间，前期调整已释放上半年基本面压力，配置窗口期显现。 政府设定的 570-770 元/吨煤价合理区间被市场认可，但进口煤价上涨、 国际局势紧张可能减少海运贸易量，影响国内供需。 沿海八省和内陆十七省电煤日耗大幅上升至同期新高，较历史同期最高 水平高 8%，极端天气下新能源出力减弱，煤炭需求增强。 港口库存从同期高位下降至低位，全行业库存不高，资源品价格上涨可 能引发下游企业恐慌补库，加剧供需紧张。 中期煤价上涨驱动力主要来自海外，海外原油、天然气价格大涨可能带 动海外煤价上涨，导致国内进口量萎缩，类似 2022 年俄乌冲突期间的 情况。 政府限价 770 元上限效果有限，限制下限相对容易，通过控制开工率和 优先采购国内资源即可实现，市场对未来几年盈利水平预期乐观。 若未来煤价维持在 770 元以上，看涨期权价值将提供显著收益，部分企 业股息率可达 6.5%以上甚至 20%以上，建议关注并适时配置相关标的。 中期来看，这轮煤价上涨主要驱动因素在于海外。如果海外原油、天然气价格 大涨 ...

兖矿能源 20260201 摘要 兖矿能源拟出售文峪煤矿，该矿竞拍最高报价达 30.5 亿元，远高于账 面净资产和评估值，预计将显著提升公司 2026 年第一季度利润，但具 体贡献需待 2025 年底审计数据确认。 文峪煤矿竞价溢价主要源于市场对内蒙古煤炭价格的乐观预期（洗精煤 发热量 5,500 大卡以上），以及潜在受让方（托管方和相邻矿井控股公 司）的协同效应考量，但最终受让方尚未披露。 出售文峪煤矿是公司资产结构调整战略的一部分，旨在集中资源于更大 规模、效益更好的大型四型矿井项目，而非自行管理小规模矿井。 兖矿能源 2025 年商品煤产量创历史新高，达 1.82 亿吨，同时控本降费 成效显著，预计全年销售成本同比下降至少 3%。公司判断 2025 年为 行业底部，2026 年市场价格中枢将上升。 2026 年 1 月，兖矿能源生产保持稳定，预计新疆五彩湾将投产，新增 原煤产量 1,000 万吨。陕蒙区域矿井生产组织优化，产量或略有增长。 公司山东和西北矿业区域长协保供合同定价机制与 2025 年相同，执行 区间高位。陕蒙区域长协基准价格预计下降，吨量减少 300 多万吨。 公司维持扣除法定储备后净利润 ...

期货研究报告 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2026 年 2 月 2 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 | 多空博弈，焦煤区间运行 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 基本面变化不大，焦炭维持低位 运行 | 备注： 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：强势 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：根据钢联统计，1 月 30 日当周，全国 523 家 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 2 日 动力煤：供需弱平衡，节前煤价窄幅波动 | 樊园园 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023682 | | fanyuanyuan@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 1. | | | | | | | 动力煤基本面数据 | | | | | | | | 指 标 | 单 位 | 本 期 | 环 比 | 同比去年 | | | 山西大同5500 | 元/吨 | 568.0 | 0.0 | -56.0 | | 产地价格 | 山西大同5500 | 元/吨 | 568.0 | 0.0 | -56.0 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 内蒙古鄂尔多斯5500 | 元/吨 | 532.0 | 0.0 | -36.0 | | | 陕西榆林5800 | 元/吨 | 596.0 | 0.0 | -57.0 | | 港口价格 | 秦港山西产Q5500 | 元/吨 | 609.0 | 0.0 | -61.0 | | | 秦港山西产Q5000 | 元/吨 | ...