Investment Rating - The textile and apparel industry maintains a rating of "In line with the market" [1] Core Insights - Puma disclosed its 2024 performance, expecting revenue growth in 2025 to be in the low to mid-single digits [3][7] - In 2024, Puma's sales grew by 4.4% to €8.817 billion, while net profit decreased by 7.6% to €282 million due to increased net financial expenses and minority interests [4][16] - The Americas region saw a growth of 7.0%, Asia-Pacific 3.8%, and EMEA 2.1% [4][16] - Direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales grew by 16.6%, increasing its share from 24.8% in 2023 to 27.5% in 2024 [4][16] - The overall market performance of the textile and apparel sector showed a 3.95% increase this week, outperforming the broader market [19][20] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The textile and apparel sector's stock index increased by 3.95%, while the light industry manufacturing sector rose by 1.76% [19] - The SW textile manufacturing PE-TTM is at 21.47, which is in the 44.08% percentile over the past three years [23] - The SW apparel and home textiles PE-TTM is at 23.58, in the 73.68% percentile over the past three years [23] Company Performance - Puma's Q4 2024 sales grew by 9.8% to €2.289 billion, with net profit increasing by 2897.6% to €24.5 million [5][17] - The DTC business in Q4 2024 grew by 16.1%, with its share rising from 31.6% in Q4 2023 to 33.4% [5][17] - The top five companies in the textile and apparel sector this week included Mingpai Jewelry (+47.93%) and Diya Co. (+28.5%) [27] Market Data Tracking - In January-February 2025, the export value of textiles and clothing decreased by 2.0% and 6.9%, respectively [36] - The retail sales of clothing in major retail enterprises fell by 7.9% year-on-year [49] - The consumer confidence index in January was 87.5, indicating a weak recovery in the domestic consumption market [12]

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Outperform the Market" rating for both Blue Moon Group and CATL, indicating expected performance above the market average [6][27][31]. Core Insights - The jewelry sector is transitioning from channel-driven to brand-driven, with a focus on product structure upgrades leading to improved gross margins [8][9]. - The pet consumption market is expanding, driven by an increase in pet ownership and a demand for higher quality products [21]. - CATL is expected to maintain strong performance with a projected net profit growth from 645 billion to 932 billion CNY over the next three years [31]. Summary by Sections Jewelry Sector - The jewelry industry is seeing a shift towards brand-driven strategies, enhancing product offerings and improving profitability [8][9]. - The report highlights that the retail sales of gold and silver jewelry have shown a year-on-year increase of 5.4% in early 2025, indicating a recovery in demand [10]. - Companies like Chow Tai Fook and Zhou Dasheng are focusing on high-quality expansion and product structure improvements to capture market share [11][12]. Pet Consumption - The pet food sector is recommended due to the growing consumer interest and spending on pet-related products, with leading companies expected to outperform the market [21]. - The report notes a significant increase in online sales and engagement in the pet product category, with a 71% year-on-year growth in pet-related live commerce [21]. Blue Moon Group - The company is projected to recover from losses in 2024, with expected net profits turning positive by 2025, supported by a strong brand presence in the cleaning products market [27]. - The report anticipates a revenue growth of 16% in 2024, driven by increased sales across all product categories [25]. CATL - CATL is projected to maintain its leadership in the global battery market, with a significant increase in production capacity and a strong pipeline of new products [31]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 645 billion CNY in 2025, with a favorable valuation range of 337.12 to 366.43 CNY per share [31].

行 华福证券 食品饮料 2025 年 03 月 16 日 业 研 究 食品饮料 复苏预期持续强化，白酒进入估值修复阶段 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 【白酒】春节整体基本面或处于底部待反转区间，同时节后白酒企业密集 停止发货，预计停货对价格的支撑在短期内即可显现，后续价格预期积极， 需求端复苏或缓释销售端压力。白酒作为顺周期板块，预期带动估值修复 往往先于基本面，估值具备较强安全边际和配置属性。建议关注可攻可守 的山西汾酒，保价控量、具备降维打击、市占率提升能力的茅台、五粮液 以及受益于婚宴回补的古井贡酒、今世缘、迎驾贡酒。 【啤酒】重点推荐高端化核心标的青岛啤酒、提效改革叠加大单品逻辑的 燕京啤酒。 【软饮料】建议关注：1）功能饮料赛道龙头且逐步探索出第二增长曲线的 东鹏饮料；2）基本面具备积极预期的香飘飘。 【预调酒】百润股份作为预调酒行业龙头企业，公司历史行情通常为大单 品所驱动的 PE 扩张，行情较快，操作上更适合左侧布局，目前公司威士忌 已正式上市，当前公司 25 年 PE 为 37 倍上下，我们认为具备较大赔率。 【乳制品】重点推荐利润导向明显的全国乳企巨头伊利股份，关注其产品 结构优化带来 ...

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 03 月 16 日 [Table_Title] 呼和浩特发布育儿补贴细则，金价再创新高 [Table_Title2] 社服零售行业周报 [Table_Summary] ► 呼和浩特发布育儿补贴细则，利好母婴消费品 3 月 13 日，内蒙古呼和浩特卫健委发布落实《关于促进人口 集聚推动人口高质量发展的实施意见》育儿补贴项目实施细 则及服务流程。发放育儿补贴实施细则如下：生育一孩一次 性发放育儿补贴 10000 元；生育二孩发放育儿补贴 50000 元， 按照每年 10000 元发放，直至孩子 5 周岁；生育三孩及以上发 放育儿补贴 100000 元，按照每年 10000 元发放，直至孩子 10 周岁。 据中国政府网、财联社，2025 年政府工作报告中明确提出， 制定促进生育政策，发放育儿补贴；3 月 7 日，国家卫健委主 任雷海潮指出，今年将发放育儿补贴，国家卫健委正在会同 有关部门，起草相关的育儿补贴的操作方案。育儿补贴政策 的出台是提振生育率的重要举措，我们认为未来地方育儿补 贴政策有望持续出台，利好母婴消费品，相关受益标的包括 孩子王、爱 ...

国际金价再次刷屏！ 3月14日，记者走访深圳水贝和多个品牌金饰店，发现金价均突破"重要关口"。 "这么强势的表现还真少见" "没想到价格跌了一两周时间，这么快就涨回去了。"在深圳水贝从事黄金饰品的陈经理表示："虽然我们对金价的跌跌涨涨已经习以为常，但这么强势的表现还真的 少见！" "春节假期前来这边逛了逛，当时金价是650元，当时想着金价要跌一跌，没想到现在却涨到这么高的水平。"现场一位消费者对记者说。也有外地游客表示，深圳水 贝这边的价格比较实惠，所以前来"跨城"买金，水贝已经成为来深旅游打卡地之一。 （水贝金饰店 吴家明/摄） 黄金珠宝消费企业如何抢占先机 陈经理也表示，最近的金价震荡幅度加大，买卖时请以实时金价为准。"金价持续走高，对零售生意的影响也越来越大，与去年同期相比，今年的销售额减少了20% 左右。" 此外，黄金珠宝消费企业的业绩正在承受压力。市场数据显示，黄金珠宝行业多数公司2024年的业绩，都面临营收利润双降的压力。 有黄金消费行业人士表示，在高金价背景中，黄金珠宝消费企业需通过工艺创新提升产品附加值，以及通过渠道布局优化成本结构，尽量在存量市场中抢占先机。 对于贵金属市场而言，3月13日是 ...

Investment Ratings - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Xiangxin Technology (002965) and other companies such as Baoshan (03998) and Haotaitai (603848) [20][38][40] Core Insights - The report highlights the robust growth potential in the new energy vehicle sector, with Xiangxin Technology's clients like Geely and BYD targeting significant sales increases by 2025 [35][36] - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic partnerships in enhancing technological capabilities, particularly in robotics and smart manufacturing [36][37] - The report notes the ongoing transformation in the real estate market towards higher quality and sustainability, indicating a shift from quantity expansion to quality improvement [27][28] Summary by Sections Economic Environment - The government continues a "moderately loose" monetary policy, with potential adjustments in reserve requirements and interest rates based on economic conditions [24] - Fiscal policies are becoming more proactive, with a target deficit rate of around 4%, indicating a willingness to leverage debt for economic growth [25] Industry Trends - The wind power sector is experiencing a positive demand outlook, with significant growth expected in both onshore and offshore wind installations globally [3][7] - The report indicates a recovery in the wind turbine industry, with price stabilization and profitability improvements expected from 2024 onwards [7] Company-Specific Insights - Xiangxin Technology is positioned well in the new energy vehicle supply chain, with a focus on structural components and battery technology [35][36] - Baoshan is launching new outdoor apparel lines that balance fashion and functionality, targeting diverse consumer needs [10][32] - Haotaitai is forming a joint venture to enhance its smart home ecosystem, leveraging partnerships to drive innovation in digital living solutions [40][41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the retail sector [2][4][40]. Core Insights - The domestic beauty and cosmetics brands performed exceptionally well during the March 8 promotional event, with a GMV exceeding 9.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.5% year-on-year growth [1][11]. - The gold and jewelry industry is expected to reach a turning point, with improved terminal demand anticipated in Q2 2025 after a bottoming out in Q1 2025 [2][14]. - The report highlights a shift in the gold and jewelry sector's driving factors from price and store openings to product strength and craftsmanship [2][14]. Summary by Sections Beauty and Cosmetics - The March 8 promotional event saw 380 beauty products from 141 brands, with local brands accounting for approximately 41.7% of the total GMV [1][11]. - Notable local brands like Perleya and Mao Geping have shown significant improvements in rankings compared to previous years [1][11]. Gold and Jewelry - The industry is expected to recover from previous price fluctuations, with a focus on craftsmanship and brand strength driving future growth [2][14]. - The report suggests that consumer preferences are shifting towards unique designs and personal expression rather than just investment value [14]. Investment Recommendations - High-growth new consumer stocks are expected to maintain premium valuations, with companies like Laopu Gold and Mao Geping recommended for attention [2][41]. - The gold and jewelry sector is projected to improve gradually starting Q2 2025, with companies like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang highlighted as potential investments [2][43]. - Retail companies are actively transforming their business models, with recommendations for companies like Bailian and Yonghui Superstores [2][43]. - The integration of AI in business operations is anticipated to enhance efficiency and open new growth avenues, with companies like Xiaoshangpin City and Anke Innovation recommended [2][43].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the textile and apparel sector, including Anta Sports, Huayi Group, Weixing Co., and others, with projected PE ratios for 2025 ranging from 14 to 23 times [11][29]. Core Insights - Adidas reported a 12% revenue growth in 2024, achieving €23.683 billion, with a significant increase in operating profit to €1.337 billion from €268 million in 2023 [1][15]. - The company expects high single-digit revenue growth for 2025, with double-digit growth anticipated for the Adidas brand across North America, Greater China, emerging markets, and Latin America [2][16]. - The textile and apparel sector is expected to see a recovery in demand in 2024, with leading companies benefiting from improved inventory management and a healthy discount environment [4][27]. Summary by Sections Adidas Performance - In 2024, Adidas' revenue reached €23.683 billion, with a 12% year-on-year increase on a currency-neutral basis, and a 19% increase in Q4 alone [1][15]. - The gross margin improved by 3.3 percentage points to 50.8%, and operating profit surged to €1.337 billion [1][15]. - Yeezy contributed approximately €650 million in revenue for 2024, down from €750 million in 2023, with inventory cleared by Q4 2024 [1][15]. Regional Performance - Europe and North America showed strong growth, with European revenue increasing by 19.8% to €7.551 billion, while North America saw a slight decline of 1.8% to €5.128 billion [2][19]. - Greater China revenue grew by 8.4% to €3.459 billion, maintaining high-quality growth and becoming Adidas' third-largest market globally [3][22]. - Emerging markets and Latin America experienced robust growth, with revenues increasing by 16.2% and 21% respectively [3][23]. Industry Outlook - The textile and apparel sector is projected to recover in 2024, with leading companies expected to outperform the industry due to improved demand and inventory management [4][27]. - Recommendations include Anta Sports, Huayi Group, and Weixing Co., with expected PE ratios for 2025 indicating strong growth potential [4][27]. - The report highlights the importance of maintaining a healthy discount environment and manageable inventory levels for sustained growth in 2025 [4][27].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive outlook for the gold jewelry industry starting from Q2 2025, indicating a potential recovery due to low base effects and strong brand positioning in the market [4]. Core Insights - Global gold demand is projected to increase from 4,406 tons in 2012 to 4,554 tons in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 1.6% [4][8]. - China and India together account for over 50% of global gold consumption, with their combined demand expected to remain robust despite fluctuations in gold prices [4][39]. - The jewelry segment constitutes 44% of global gold demand in 2024, while investment in gold bars and coins accounts for 26% [4][12]. Summary by Sections Global Gold Demand Overview - Global gold demand has remained stable, with a slight increase expected in 2024 driven by central bank purchases and investment demand [8][12]. - The jewelry segment has consistently held the highest share of gold demand, remaining above 40% since 2022 [12][15]. Country and Region-Specific Gold Demand - In 2024, China and India are projected to consume 27% and 26% of global gold, respectively, with a notable increase in gold jewelry consumption in both markets [39][42]. - The demand for gold jewelry in China and India has risen significantly, with their combined share reaching nearly 60% since 2021 [4][42]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests investing in established jewelry brands such as Lao Feng Xiang, Chao Hong Ji, and Chow Tai Fook, which are expected to benefit from strong brand loyalty and market stability [4]. Gold Supply Overview - Global gold supply is expected to reach 4,974.5 tons in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 0.58%, primarily driven by an increase in recycled gold production [25][28]. - The share of recycled gold in total supply has increased significantly due to rising gold prices, with a projected 1,370 tons of recycled gold in 2024, reflecting an 11% increase [34][31].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the remarkable rise of Laopu Gold, which has seen its stock price soar despite a general downturn in the gold jewelry market, highlighting its unique positioning and marketing strategy [2][3][10]. Group 1: Company Performance - Laopu Gold's stock price increased by 11.73% to 600 HKD, surpassing Tencent to become the highest-priced stock in the Hong Kong market [3]. - The stock has risen over 13 times since its IPO at 40.5 HKD, achieving a market capitalization exceeding 100 billion HKD [3]. - The company forecasts a net profit of 1.4 to 1.5 billion RMB for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 236% to 260% [10]. Group 2: Market Context - Despite rising gold prices, the overall demand for gold jewelry in China has declined, with a reported 24.69% drop in consumption volume to 532.02 tons in 2024 [15]. - Major competitors like Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook have reported significant revenue declines, with Chow Tai Fook's revenue down 20.43% and net profit down 44.4% [17]. Group 3: Unique Positioning - Laopu Gold differentiates itself by offering high-priced products based on "ancient craftsmanship," with average prices exceeding 1,000 RMB per gram, positioning itself as the "Hermès of gold" [19][20]. - The company operates a luxury retail model, providing high-end customer service and amenities, which has contributed to its strong sales performance [21][22]. Group 4: Financial Metrics - Laopu Gold achieved nearly 200% net profit growth in the first half of the year, contrasting sharply with the declines seen by other brands [18]. - The company reported a gross margin consistently above 40%, significantly higher than competitors whose margins range from 20% to 30% [25][26]. Group 5: Challenges and Concerns - Laopu Gold's market share in the ancient gold segment is only 2%, with larger competitors capturing 46.1% of the market [45]. - The company relies heavily on outsourced production, with 41% of its output coming from external sources, raising concerns about quality and stability [48]. - Rising accounts receivable and inventory levels indicate potential future challenges, with accounts receivable increasing by 124.25% and inventory by 119% [53][55].