势银研究： 势银产业研究服务 势银数据： 势银数据产品服务 势银咨询： 势银咨询顾问服务 重要会议： 2025势银绿氢产业大会（7月16-17日，江苏·无锡） 点此报名 "宁波膜智信息科技有限公司"为势银（TrendBank）唯一工商注册实体及收款账户 添加文末微信，加 燃料电池 群 在燃气领域，天然气因具有高安全性、高热值、成本优势等特点，已得到广泛应用。然而，天然气燃 烧会排放大量CO₂，难以契合低碳发展趋势，因此亟需在燃气领域找到降低碳排放的替代方案。 掺氢 天然气融合了天然气与氢气的优势，能够优化燃料的燃烧特性和排放性能，成为燃气领域实现 "双碳" 目标的有效途径。 目前，掺氢天然气已在民用燃气、工业燃气轮机、车用发动机等领域开展试验示范 应用。 据了解，我国天然气掺氢正从技术验证阶段转向规模化示范阶段。尽管发展前景广阔，但仍面临 技术 瓶颈突破、政策体系完善、经济性竞争力提升以及全产业链协同生态构建 等挑战。短期内，可推进低 比例掺氢（如5%-30%）试点验证；长期则需依托绿氢规模化制备与终端设备适应性改造，逐步向更高 比例掺氢或纯氢管网过渡。 进入 2025 年以来， 东德氢能、华电集团、武汉市燃 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [6] Core Viewpoints - The public utility market reform is progressing, which is beneficial for industry profitability and cash flow improvement. The report highlights a valuation recovery logic and is optimistic about quality targets in the waste incineration, water, and gas sectors [2][9] Summary by Sections Event Description - On April 29, 2025, the Guangzhou Development and Reform Commission announced a water price reform, effective June 1, with the first, second, and third tier prices set at 2.55, 3.82, and 7.65 yuan per cubic meter respectively [4] Event Commentary - The report emphasizes the necessity of price adjustments due to rising operational costs for water supply companies, which have seen losses increase from -447 million yuan in 2020 to -653 million yuan in 2022. The price adjustments reflect a balance between profitability and public affordability, with increases of 28.8%, 28.6%, and 93.2% for the respective tiers [9] - Shenzhen is also moving forward with water price adjustments, indicating a broader trend in public utility reforms [9] Market Trends - The report notes that major cities are implementing or considering water price adjustments, which will enhance the profitability of water companies. The waste incineration sector is also expected to benefit from new revenue models and fee structures, while gas pricing reforms are anticipated to improve margins for city gas companies [9] - The report recommends several companies in the waste incineration, water, and gas sectors, including Hanlan Environment, Weiming Environmental, and China Gas, as quality investment targets [9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, New Energy (2688 HK), with a target price of HKD 74.60, indicating a potential upside of 21.4% from the current price of HKD 61.45 [4][9]. Core Insights - The first quarter of 2025 saw gas sales remain stable, influenced by a warm winter, with retail gas volume showing a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, outperforming the mainland's natural gas apparent consumption decline of 2.2% [2][7]. - The management indicated that the warm winter impacted gas sales by approximately 2-3 percentage points, with residential gas sales increasing by 1.1% year-on-year [2][7]. - The privatization plan is progressing steadily, with expectations to seek shareholder approval in the fourth quarter of this year [7][8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 113,858 million - 2024: RMB 109,853 million - 2025E: RMB 116,552 million (6.1% YoY growth) - 2026E: RMB 122,701 million - 2027E: RMB 129,239 million [3][11]. - Net profit estimates are: - 2023: RMB 6,816 million - 2024: RMB 5,987 million - 2025E: RMB 7,174 million (3.2% YoY growth) - 2026E: RMB 7,782 million - 2027E: RMB 8,098 million [3][11]. - The company is expected to maintain moderate profit growth over the next three years, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5% from 2024 to 2027 [7][8]. Operational Performance - The company’s retail gas sales volume is projected to grow as follows: - 2023: 25,145 million cubic meters - 2024: 26,200 million cubic meters - 2025E: 26,782 million cubic meters (2.2% growth) - 2026E: 27,588 million cubic meters - 2027E: 28,421 million cubic meters [8]. - The company has also seen a 9.9% year-on-year increase in its diversified energy sales volume, reaching 100 billion kWh in the first quarter [7][8]. Market Position - The company’s market capitalization is approximately HKD 68,286.31 million, with a 52-week high of HKD 79.30 and a low of HKD 45.25 [6][9]. - The stock has shown a year-to-date change of 10.03% [6].

Financial Performance - The company reported a basic earnings per share of 0.8900 yuan for Q1 2025, an increase of 14.1% compared to 0.7800 yuan in Q1 2024, and significantly higher than 0.3500 yuan in Q1 2023 [1] - The net profit for Q1 2025 was 3.77 billion yuan, reflecting a 13.55% increase from 3.32 billion yuan in Q1 2024 and a substantial rise from 1.46 billion yuan in Q1 2023 [1] - The company's operating revenue for Q1 2025 was 10.64 billion yuan, down 5.92% from 11.31 billion yuan in Q1 2024, but up from 10.18 billion yuan in Q1 2023 [1] - The return on equity (ROE) for Q1 2025 was 4.53%, slightly up from 4.43% in Q1 2024 and significantly higher than 2.77% in Q1 2023 [1] Shareholder Structure - The top ten unrestricted shareholders collectively hold 23,875.79 million shares, accounting for 56.51% of the circulating shares, with an increase of 580.91 million shares compared to the previous period [1] - The largest shareholder, Ming Zai Yuan, holds 17,409.04 million shares, representing 41.20% of the total share capital, with no change in holdings [2] - The second-largest shareholder, Yin Xian Feng, holds 1,468.35 million shares (3.48%), also unchanged [2] - The National Social Security Fund's 503 combination saw a significant decrease of 49.99% in holdings, while the 406 combination entered the top ten shareholders for the first time [2] Dividend Policy - The company has decided not to distribute dividends or transfer shares in the current period [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, New Energy (2688 HK), with a target price of HKD 74.60, indicating a potential upside of 21.4% from the current closing price of HKD 61.45 [4][9]. Core Insights - The first quarter of 2025 saw gas sales remain stable, influenced by a warm winter, with retail gas volume growing by 0.3% year-on-year, outperforming the mainland's natural gas apparent consumption decline of 2.2% [2][7]. - The management indicated that the warm winter impacted gas sales by approximately 2-3 percentage points, with residential gas sales increasing by 1.1% year-on-year [2][7]. - The privatization plan is progressing steadily, with expectations for shareholder approval in the fourth quarter of this year [7][8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 113,858 million - 2024: RMB 109,853 million - 2025E: RMB 116,552 million (6.1% growth) - 2026E: RMB 122,701 million (5.3% growth) - 2027E: RMB 129,239 million (5.3% growth) [3][11]. - Net profit estimates are: - 2023: RMB 6,816 million - 2024: RMB 5,987 million - 2025E: RMB 7,174 million (3.2% growth) - 2026E: RMB 7,782 million (8.5% growth) - 2027E: RMB 8,098 million (4.1% growth) [3][11]. - The company maintains a dividend yield of 4.6% in 2023, projected to increase to 7.0% by 2027 [3][11]. Operational Performance - The company expects retail gas volume and energy sales to grow by 2.2% and 12% respectively in 2025, despite the warm winter's impact [7][8]. - The number of new residential connections decreased by 16% year-on-year to 287,000, with a ratio of new to old homes at 3:1 [7][8]. - The energy business saw a sales volume increase of 9.9% year-on-year to 10 billion kWh, with 14 new projects becoming operational [7][8]. Market Position - The company's market capitalization stands at approximately HKD 68,286.31 million, with a 52-week high of HKD 79.30 and a low of HKD 45.25 [6][9]. - The stock has shown a year-to-date change of 10.03% [6].

Group 1: Hydropower - The hydropower sector is supported by a series of policies aimed at promoting green and low-carbon energy transitions, with significant emphasis on the development of hydropower projects [11][12][13] - China's hydropower installed capacity is projected to grow from 370 million kilowatts at the end of 2020 to 436 million kilowatts by the end of 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 4% [12][15] - Major hydropower companies such as Yangtze Power, Huaneng Hydropower, and Yalong River Company have plans for new installations, indicating future growth potential in hydropower capacity [15][19] - The hydropower sector has maintained profitability, with a revenue of 178.7 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 22.51%, and a net profit of 47.9 billion yuan, up 20.18% [19][21] - Nine out of eleven listed hydropower companies have returned profits to shareholders through cash dividends, with significant payout ratios, indicating a commitment to sharing development results with investors [19][21] Group 2: Coal Power - The establishment of a coal power capacity price mechanism is expected to assist in the recovery of fixed costs for compliant coal power plants, with a standard fixed cost of 330 yuan per kilowatt per year [24][26] - The capacity price mechanism will allow coal power companies to recover a portion of their fixed costs, with most regions set to recover around 30% to 50% of these costs in 2024-2025 [26][27] - The auxiliary service market is being continuously improved, with policies in place to enhance the compensation mechanisms for various types of power auxiliary services [29][30] - The average price of thermal coal has decreased by 6.28% year-on-year, which is expected to positively impact the performance of coal power companies [38][39] Group 3: Natural Gas - The development of the industrial economy is anticipated to boost natural gas demand, with a projected consumption of 426.05 billion cubic meters in 2024, reflecting an 8% year-on-year increase [51][53] - A series of policies aimed at stimulating industrial growth are expected to enhance natural gas demand, with the 2025 government work report emphasizing the need to expand domestic demand [53][65] - The orderly advancement of the natural gas price linkage mechanism is expected to help gas companies manage procurement costs effectively, promoting healthy development in the gas sector [57][60]

Financial Performance - The company reported a basic earnings per share of 0.1400 yuan for Q1 2025, representing a 27.27% increase compared to 0.1100 yuan in Q1 2024 [1] - The net profit for Q1 2025 was 0.27 billion yuan, a 35% increase from 0.20 billion yuan in Q1 2024 [1] - The operating revenue for Q1 2025 reached 2.45 billion yuan, marking a 16.67% increase from 2.1 billion yuan in Q1 2024 [1] - The return on equity (ROE) improved to 2.02% in Q1 2025, up from 1.52% in Q1 2024, reflecting a 32.89% increase [1] Shareholder Structure - The top ten unrestricted shareholders collectively hold 483.14 million shares, accounting for 9.44% of the circulating shares, with an increase of 13.33 million shares compared to the previous period [1] - Notable shareholders include Beijing Jiebo Energy Technology Co., Ltd. with 150.38 million shares (2.93% of total shares) and Guotiao No.1 Private Securities Investment Fund with 50.00 million shares (0.98% of total shares) [2] - Several shareholders exited the top ten list, including Beijing Xinhong Tianhe Asset Management Center, which had 52.76 million shares [2] Dividend Policy - The company has decided not to distribute dividends or transfer shares in the current period [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a seasonal decline in demand and potential relaxation of European storage targets, leading to a global price drop in gas [1][10] - It emphasizes the need to monitor the impact of increased tariffs on US LNG imports, particularly for companies with US gas sources [48] Price Tracking - As of April 25, 2025, global gas prices have decreased week-on-week: US HH by 7.2%, European TTF by 8.6%, East Asia JKM by 6.7%, and China's LNG ex-factory price by 0.6% [10][11] - The average total supply of natural gas in the US decreased by 0.9% week-on-week to 1,113 billion cubic feet per day, while total demand fell by 6.9% to 957 billion cubic feet per day [16][22] Supply and Demand Analysis - The report notes a weak seasonal demand, with US natural gas prices dropping significantly [16] - European gas consumption in 2025M1 was 605 billion cubic meters, up 1.8% year-on-year, but overall consumption has been reduced due to the search for alternative energy sources [18] - Domestic gas prices in China decreased by 0.6% week-on-week, with a year-on-year apparent consumption decline of 1.8% [22][27] Pricing Progress - The report indicates that 61% of cities have implemented residential pricing adjustments, with a price increase of 0.20 yuan per cubic meter [37] Important Events - The EU Commission voted to introduce more flexible natural gas storage filling targets, alleviating downstream replenishment pressure and improving market sentiment [18][44] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from a more favorable pricing mechanism, such as Xin'ao Energy and China Gas [48] - It suggests monitoring companies with quality long-term contracts and flexible scheduling, like Jiufeng Energy and Xin'ao [48]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower and fluctuated, with the CSI 300 Utilities Index reported at 2638.18 points, reflecting a 3.14% increase over the past month, a 4.64% increase over the past three months, and a 2.53% decline year-to-date [1] Group 1: Index Performance - The CSI 300 Utilities Index is categorized into 11 primary industries, 35 secondary industries, over 90 tertiary industries, and more than 200 quaternary industries, providing a comprehensive analysis tool for investors [1] - The index is based on a sample of 300 stocks from the CSI 300, with a base date of December 31, 2004, and a base point of 1000.0 [1] Group 2: Index Holdings - The top ten weights in the CSI 300 Utilities Index are: - Changjiang Electric Power (48.17%) - China Nuclear Power (10.24%) - Three Gorges Energy (8.19%) - Guodian Power (5.45%) - State Power Investment (4.79%) - Sichuan Investment Energy (4.38%) - Huaneng International (4.21%) - China General Nuclear Power (3.7%) - Zhejiang Energy Power (3.12%) - Huadian International (2.67%) [1] Group 3: Market Composition - The market composition of the CSI 300 Utilities Index shows that the Shanghai Stock Exchange accounts for 95.94%, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange accounts for 4.06% [2] - In terms of industry composition, hydropower constitutes 59.60%, thermal power 15.45%, nuclear power 13.94%, wind power 8.55%, and gas power 2.46% [2] Group 4: Sample Adjustment - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December each year [2] - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with temporary adjustments made in response to changes in the CSI 300 Index samples or special events affecting sample companies [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a seasonal decline in demand and potential relaxation of European storage targets, leading to a global price drop for gas [1][10] - It emphasizes the need for companies to adapt to increased tariffs on US LNG imports, which may impact their cost structures and pricing strategies [49] Price Tracking - As of April 25, 2025, global gas prices have decreased week-on-week: US HH by 7.2%, European TTF by 8.6%, East Asia JKM by 6.7%, and China's LNG ex-factory price by 0.6% [10][11] - The average total supply of natural gas in the US decreased by 0.9% week-on-week to 1,113 billion cubic feet per day, while total demand fell by 6.9% to 957 billion cubic feet per day [16][23] Supply and Demand Analysis - The report notes a significant drop in residential and commercial gas consumption in the US, with a 31.7% week-on-week decline in the residential sector [16] - In Europe, the gas consumption for April 2025 is projected at 605 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, despite ongoing efforts to reduce consumption due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict [18] Pricing Mechanism Progress - The report indicates that 61% of cities in China have implemented residential pricing adjustments, with a proposed increase of 0.20 yuan per cubic meter [38] - The pricing gap for major city gas companies is expected to continue to narrow, indicating a potential for further price adjustments [38] Important Events - The EU has voted to introduce more flexible natural gas storage filling targets, which may alleviate market pressures and improve sentiment [48] - The report discusses the increase of tariffs on US LNG to 140%, noting that the impact on supply will be limited due to the small proportion of US LNG in China's total imports [45] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can optimize costs and adapt to the evolving pricing mechanisms, such as Xin'ao Energy and China Gas, which have attractive dividend yields [49] - It also suggests monitoring companies with strong long-term contracts and flexible operations, such as Jiufeng Energy and Xin'ao Shares, for potential investment opportunities [49]