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单日大跌超7000元/吨!一则宜春锂矿复产消息干崩碳酸锂期货!浇灭资金做多热情,各大合约牢牢封住跌停板,碳酸锂反内卷行情如何演绎?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-20 09:22
金融界8月20日消息 单日暴跌8%,碳酸锂期货各大合约牢牢封住跌停板,A股江特电机旗下的宜春锂矿复 产消息直接干崩碳酸锂期货, 20日开盘,碳酸锂合约全线大幅低开,随后不断走低,在多头资金挣扎了1个小时后,选择放弃抵抗。上 午10点,碳酸锂主力合约被空头摁在跌停板上,大跌8%,报80980元/吨,单日每吨碳酸锂价格大跌超过 7000元,其他月份合约也纷纷跌停。午后一度有资金进场试图撬板反攻,碳酸锂期货一度打开跌停,但是 最终以失败而告终,截至收盘,碳酸锂期货各月合约全线跌停。 此外,A股锂矿板块也逆市下挫,天齐锂业、赣锋锂业、盛新锂能、永兴材料等纷纷下跌。 | | 碳酸锂主连 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | lc9999 | | | | | 80980 | 08858 | 振幅 | 5.57% | # 83.897 | | 80980 | | 昨结 | 88020 | 持仓 39.517 | | -7040 -8.009 | 85680 | ਦੇ ਜੋੜ | 82900 | 日增 -1899! | | 相关ETF O | | | | 有色ETF 1.69 ...
瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20250820
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 09:10
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate futures main contract hit the daily limit down, with a decrease of 8% at the close. The trading volume decreased month - on - month, the spot was at a premium, and the basis strengthened [2]. - Fundamentally, due to domestic mining incidents, the spot price of lithium carbonate raw materials has risen significantly, driving up the lithium ore quotation. Supply may continue to increase as smelters are more active in hedging. Demand has also improved as downstream buyers are more proactive in advance stocking with the approaching peak season. Overall, the lithium carbonate market may see a situation of increasing supply and demand, but the inventory is still at a relatively high level [2]. - In the options market, the put - call ratio of open interest is 101.57%, a month - on - month increase of 7.764%. The call open interest in the options market has an advantage, and the sentiment in the options market has turned bearish, with the implied volatility slightly decreasing [2]. - Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD chart, the double lines are above the 0 - axis and the green bars are expanding. - The operation suggestion is to short lightly on rallies and pay attention to trading rhythm to control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 80,980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6,560 yuan [2]. - The net position of the top 20 is - 139,458 lots, an increase of 10,387 lots [2]. - The open interest of the main contract is 395,102 lots, a decrease of 18,995 lots [2]. - The spread between near - and far - month contracts is 160 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The warehouse receipts of GME are 23,615 lots, an increase of 60 lots [2]. Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 85,700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 83,400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 4,720 yuan/ton, an increase of 6,560 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 980 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 US dollars [2]. - The average price of amblygonite is 8,525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 415 yuan [2]. - The price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 2,645 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly production of lithium carbonate is 44,600 tons, an increase of 500 tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate is 17,697.62 tons, a decrease of 3,448.16 tons [2]. - The monthly export volume of lithium carbonate is 429.65 tons, an increase of 142.92 tons [2]. - The monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 48%, a decrease of 4 percentage points [2]. - The monthly production of power batteries is 133,800 MWh, an increase of 4,600 MWh [2]. - The price of lithium manganate is 34,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 55,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan [2]. - The price of lithium cobaltate is 235,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of ternary material (811 type): China is 148,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of ternary material (622 power type): China is 124,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 130,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 52%, an increase of 1 percentage point [2]. - The price of lithium iron phosphate is 34,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 51%, a decrease of 1 percentage point [2]. - The monthly production of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,243,000 vehicles, a decrease of 25,000 vehicles [2]. - The monthly sales of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,262,000 vehicles, a decrease of 67,000 vehicles [2]. - The cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 44.99%, an increase of 0.68 percentage points [2]. - The cumulative sales of new energy vehicles is 8,220,000 vehicles, an increase of 2,286,000 vehicles [2]. - The monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 225,000 vehicles, an increase of 20,000 vehicles [2]. - The cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles is 1,308,000 vehicles, an increase of 600,000 vehicles [2]. - The 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 73.17%, an increase of 3.84 percentage points [2]. - The 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 55.24%, an increase of 4.50 percentage points [2]. Option Situation - The total call open interest is 145,340 contracts, a decrease of 2,807 contracts [2]. - The total put open interest is 147,624 contracts, an increase of 8,651 contracts [2]. - The put - call ratio of total open interest is 101.57%, an increase of 7.764 percentage points [2]. - The at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.43%, a decrease of 0.0279 percentage points [2]. Industry News - A national conference on promoting the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones was held in Beijing, emphasizing the need to optimize policies steadily, implement policies to increase consumption, and cultivate new growth points in the consumer market [2]. - Xiaomi Group's total revenue in the second quarter reached 116 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 30.5%. The revenue of the "Mobile × AIoT" segment was 94.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.8%, and the revenue of the "Intelligent Electric Vehicles and AI and other innovative businesses" segment was 21.3 billion yuan, both hitting record highs [2]. - Yichun Yinli, a wholly - owned subsidiary of Jiangte Motor, which had suspended production for equipment maintenance, will resume production soon [2]. - Heilongjiang has adjusted its subsidy policy for replacing old consumer goods with new ones. Starting from August 23, subsidies for car replacement are divided into three levels. The subsidy standards for fuel vehicles are 5,000 yuan, 8,000 yuan, and 11,000 yuan respectively, and the subsidy for each level of new energy vehicles is 2,000 yuan more [2].
智利矿业化工(SQM.US)Q2盈利因锂价下滑而猛降28% 预期价格将回升
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-20 08:49
近几周来,锂价大幅上涨——尽管仍远低于其峰值水平的 80%——原因是市场参与者正在应对宁德时 代(300750)江西宜春"枧下窝"锂矿的关闭问题。近年来,由于新矿投产以及需求增长放缓,全球锂供 应过剩的局面一直使价格处于低迷状态。 SQM公司目前预计,其在智利的业务在 2025 年的销售量将较去年增长约 10%。该公司还上调了在澳大 利亚的销售预期。不过,由于市场价格低迷,该公司第二季度的销售量较第一季度有所下降。 该公司首席执行官里Ricardo Ramos在声明中表示:"我们部分已签订的合同已达到其中设定的最低限 额,这影响了双方所商定的产量。"该公司预测,今年下半年其在澳大利亚的产量将"大幅增加",并将 其国际锂业务部门 2025 年的销售预期上调至约2万吨锂碳酸盐等量。 全球顶尖的锂矿生产商之一智利矿业化工(SQM.US)第二季度的核心盈利出现下滑,原因是用于电池生 产的这种材料的价格跌至多年来的最低点。扣除特定项目后的调整后盈利较上年同期下降了 28%,至 3.079 亿美元。该公司表示,锂行业一直受到全球供应过剩的严重影响,这导致价格大幅下跌,不过中 国减少产量的举措近期推动了价格的回升。 该公司 ...
市场快讯:复产叠加改运消息缓解供应紧张预期,碳酸锂价格大幅下调
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 07:17
> 碳酸锂 2025年8月20日 消息一:江特电机(002176.SZ)公告称,公司全资下属公司宜春 银锂新能源有限责任公司(简称"宜春银锂")于前期停产进行了 设备检修。近日,公司接到宜春银锂通知,宜春银锂将于近日正式 复工复产。 消息二:Pilbara原7月下旬计划8月中旬发往韩国的1船锂精矿3.6 万吨,因价格原因,目前已改为去中国,原计划延至9月,因此9月 中国澳矿到货有所增加。 宜春银锂目前拥有碳酸锂产能3.5万吨,复产带来约2500吨/月 碳酸锂产量,皮尔巴拉澳矿本批到港折合碳酸锂总量约4500吨;与 宁德视下窝碳酸锂月产量约5000-6000 吨比较,已很大程度覆盖视 下窝供给减量,缓解市场供应紧张预期。碳酸锂期货早盘低开后, 随着利空情绪及多头集中平仓, 市场快讯 -- 复产叠加改运消息缓解供应紧张预期,碳酸锂价格大幅下调 宜春银锂产线已进行多项技术改造以实现绿色化升级,复产属 计划之内。然皮尔巴拉锂精矿改运提醒了市场:价格上涨必会引起 供给增长,对国内矿端受新矿产资源法影响而进行供给缩减预期的 同时,也要与闲置产能复产、进口量增加的预期进行平衡。 联系方式:wangchen@greendh. ...
雅化集团:上半年净利润同比增长32.87%
Zhong Zheng Wang· 2025-08-20 07:06
中证报中证网讯(王珞)8月20日,雅化集团(002497)发布的2025年半年报显示,公司实现营业收入 34.23亿元,归属于上市公司股东的净利润1.36亿元,同比增长32.87%。其中民爆业务实现营业收入 14.65亿元,同比增长3.7%,归母净利润2.53亿元,同比增长2.4%,好于行业总体水平;锂业务实现营 业收入17.64亿元。 公司主营业务包括锂业务和民爆业务两大板块。锂业务方面,公司目前拥有四川李家沟锂矿和津巴布韦 卡玛蒂维锂矿,雅安锂业、国理公司、兴晟锂业三个锂盐产品生产基地。民爆业务方面,公司拥有炸药 生产许可产能26余万吨、工业雷管许可产能近9000万发、工业导爆索和塑料导爆管许可产能1亿余米, 产能规模处于行业前列,品种、规格齐全,产能优势突出。 公司是锂盐产品尤其是电池级氢氧化锂的主要生产商,是全球知名车企、电池厂商、正极材料企业等行 业头部企业的核心供应商,与TESLA、SKON、LGES、LGC、松下、宁德时代(300750)、振华、厦 钨、容百、长远锂科等头部企业建立了长期合作关系,在产品品质、产能规模、产业链完整性等方面已 发展成为行业的优势企业。今年上半年,公司锂业务头部企业营 ...
供应缩减预期生变?碳酸锂全线跌停
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-20 06:13
Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement of Jiangte Electric's subsidiary resuming production has eased concerns about tight lithium carbonate supply, leading to a significant drop in lithium carbonate futures prices, with a daily decline of 8% on August 20 [1][3]. Supply Dynamics - The expectation of supply reduction had previously driven lithium carbonate prices higher, particularly after news of the suspension of lithium mining operations in Yichun by CATL on August 11, which led to a surge in prices [3]. - Jiangte Electric's announcement on August 19 regarding the resumption of production at Yichun Yinli New Energy has shifted market sentiment, causing prices to drop and nearly erase gains made since August 11 [3][4]. - Despite the recent price drop, uncertainties regarding domestic lithium resource supply remain, as stricter government regulations on mining rights compliance could impact future production [5][6]. Market Sentiment and Price Volatility - The short-term volatility in lithium carbonate prices is largely driven by market sentiment and speculative trading rather than fundamental changes in supply and demand [4][5]. - Recent data indicates a scenario of increasing production alongside decreasing inventory levels, which supports bullish expectations for lithium prices [5][6]. Demand Outlook - The upcoming demand peak in September and October is expected to bolster market sentiment, with strong orders in energy storage and power sectors contributing to a positive outlook for demand [6][7]. - The expectation of replenishing inventory in anticipation of rising prices may further support the upward trend in lithium carbonate prices [6][7]. Long-term Perspective - While short-term price fluctuations are influenced by market sentiment, the long-term price movements are expected to revert to fundamental supply-demand dynamics [6]. - The overall market is likely to experience a supply surplus, which may limit the potential for sustained price increases despite temporary bullish sentiment [6][7].
新能源及有色金属日报:现货价格继续上涨,需关注供应端扰动-20250820
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 05:20
Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to tighten, and downstream procurement demand has increased during the peak demand season, so the spot price of lithium carbonate is expected to continue to rise, and the price center will move up in the short term [1] - Affected by the disturbance of the mining end, lithium carbonate is expected to run strongly, but the short - term market fluctuates greatly and is easily affected by capital sentiment and news [3] Market Analysis - On August 19, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 opened at 89,500 yuan/ton and closed at 87,540 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.79% compared to the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 734,929 lots, and the open interest was 414,097 lots, compared with 421,106 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis was - 2,220 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 23,615 lots, a change of 60 lots from the previous trading day [1] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 84,300 - 87,100 yuan/ton, a change of 1,100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 82,700 - 84,100 yuan/ton, also a change of 1,100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 1,040 US dollars/ton, a change of 5 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1] - Due to the decline in futures prices, downstream purchasing and price - setting behaviors increased significantly, pushing up the spot price of lithium carbonate [1] Company News - Jiangte Motor's wholly - owned subsidiary, Yichun Yinli New Energy Co., Ltd., which had previously stopped production for equipment maintenance, will resume production soon [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term investors can buy on dips for hedging - No strategies provided for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]
【财经分析】供应缩减预期生变?碳酸锂全线跌停
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-20 05:13
截至20日早盘收盘时,碳酸锂期货所有合约全线跌停,日跌幅8%。主力合约期价也重新回落到81000元 /吨关口下方。 新华财经北京8月20日电(吴郑思) 伴随着江特电机全资下属公司将于近日复产的消息传出,碳酸锂市 场供应趋紧的担忧情绪出现些许缓和,直接促使碳酸锂期货价格在20日早盘时段大幅下挫。 不过,从机构分析来看,碳酸锂价格维持反弹并延续强势仍有基础。这主要体现在: | 序号 | 合约名称 | 最新 现手 | 采价 | | 卖价 买量 卖量 | 成交量 涨跌 涨幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 29 | 碳酸锂加权。 | 80720 | 1 | | | 928254 -7020 -8.00% | | 30 | 碳酸锂主连 | 80980 | 5 | 80980 | --- 42668 | 638352 -7040 -8.00% | | 31 | 碳酸锂2509 | 81040 | 1 | 81040 | 3962 | 39896 -7040 -7.99% | | 32 | 碳酸锂2510 | 81000 | 6 | 81000 | 4320 ...
反内卷全面来袭,到底意味着什么?
Hu Xiu· 2025-08-20 03:16
反内卷风暴席卷中国,锂矿、水泥、钢铁到猪肉、汽车纷纷限产,连挖矿都被叫停。宁德时代的锂矿停 产只是开始...... ...
生意社:近期碳酸锂价格偏强震荡运行 基本面供大于求格局未改变
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-20 02:44
碳酸锂在经历宁德时代矿端停产带动下价格飙升后,回归震荡态势,近期小幅上涨。截至8月19日,电 池级碳酸锂生意社基准价82733元/吨,较月初上涨16%,环比上涨28.27%;工业级碳酸锂生意社基准价 81166元/吨,较月初上涨15.46%,环比上涨28.5%。上周,受宁德时代江西枧下窝矿区采矿证到期全面 停产消息影响,引发市场供应收紧担忧,碳酸锂价格大幅上涨。叠加周内全球锂业巨头雅宝(Albemarle) 位于智利Antofagasta的La Negra锂加工厂因含酸管道爆裂事故,部分产线临时停产。进一步刺激价格上 涨。生意社碳酸锂数据师认为:短期内受供应端消息扰动,碳酸锂价格剧烈波动,但长期来看基本面供 大于求格局未改变,碳酸锂价格进一步上涨动力有限,具体仍需关注市场供需变化。 ...