文 ｜ 陈聪 张全国 李俊波 刘河维 2 0 2 4年，华润万象生活、龙湖集团和新城控股的购物中心同店销售额跑赢社零，同店租金跑赢行 业。优质购物中心的抗风险能力显著，购物中心的先发优势显著。我们认为，随着金融市场的发 展，资金不会成为限制商业地产公司发展的要素，商业地产公司（无论轻重）价值取决于稀缺地段 +运营能力。我们看好中国核心商业地产企业的全面向上重估，包括轻资产平台的价值发现，和重 资产公司如的估值提升。 ▍ 外部不确定性增大，提振消费利好购物中心价值。 目前，外需存在较大不确定性，提振内需是构建新发展格局的战略基点。购物中心是承载居民消 费，娱乐，体验，休闲的重要物理载体，我们预计将受益于内需提振。近期，财政部、住建部要 求加强消费基础设施建设，改造城市空间以满足文化、旅游、餐饮、休闲娱乐需求，以中央财政 支持以刺激内需。 ▍ 头部品牌购物中心同店销售额跑赢社零，租金增长跑赢行业。 我们基于公司公告数据测算，三大上市公司华润万象生活、龙湖集团、新城控股2 0 2 4年在营购物 中心销售额平均增长1 6 . 4%，同店销售额平均增长6 . 2%，租金及管理费收入平均增长1 6 . 6%，同 店租金平 ...

Group 1: Real Estate - The new phase of real estate has begun, but a policy push is needed to stabilize housing prices, with a critical window expected around April-May 2025 for potential policy measures [1] - Anticipated policies include lowering housing financing costs, meeting improvement housing demands, increasing land reserves, and enhancing liquidity support for real estate companies [1] - Long-term bottoming of housing prices is expected, favoring developers and service platforms that excel in construction, asset management, and service provision [1] Group 2: Consumer Sector - 2025 may mark a turning point as internal demand becomes a focus due to ongoing external pressures, with fiscal policies aimed at boosting consumption becoming clearer [2] - Three main trends in the consumer sector are identified: rational consumption, emotional spending for satisfaction, and new consumption opportunities driven by technological advancements [2] - The consumer sector is expected to stabilize, with Q2 2025 likely being a bottoming point for many industries, suggesting a shift towards a balanced investment strategy [2] Group 3: Financial Products - New regulations for bank distribution of financial products are set to enhance professionalism and protect investor interests, potentially leading to a reshuffling in the industry [5] - Stricter standards for private fund access will benefit top-tier managers, while public fund managers face challenges due to increased competition [5] Group 4: Infrastructure and Urban Renewal - The central government is expected to support urban renewal initiatives, which will stimulate investment and consumption, creating new opportunities for sustainable growth [10] - The focus on urban renewal is anticipated to generate physical work and expand spending in leisure and entertainment, contributing to stable internal demand [10] Group 5: Environmental and Energy Sector - The development of virtual power plants is expected to accelerate, with significant capacity growth projected by 2027 and 2030, benefiting from the rise of renewable energy [11] - The industry is likely to overcome current barriers in technology standards and market mechanisms, paving the way for rapid growth [11] Group 6: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing sector faces challenges from U.S. tariffs but has significant potential for growth in non-U.S. export markets and domestic demand [14] - Companies with strong competitive advantages and those benefiting from internal circulation are recommended for investment [14] Group 7: Corporate Behavior - A surge in share buybacks and increases in corporate holdings is observed, with total planned amounts exceeding 73 billion [12] - The support from state-owned enterprises for buybacks indicates a positive outlook for market management and potential future increases in corporate actions [12]

"商业运营是一个可以穿越周期的行业，每一个成功的运营者都有其成功的关键要素、价值主张、经营 理念，它让企业形成统一的管理语言，并最终指引企业将核心优势转化为持续的经营业绩。" 近日，新城控股发布2024年年度报告，公司实现营业收入890亿元，归属于上市公司股东的净利润7.52 亿元，同比增长2.07%；扣非归母净利润8.70亿元，同比增长183.07%。 报告期内，公司实现商业运营总收入128.08亿元，同比增长13.10%，不仅超额完成125亿元的年度目 标，而且对整体业绩的贡献比例进一步提升；物业出租及管理毛利率达70.17%，为公司利润提供有力 支撑。 面对行业挑战，新城控股凭借"地产开发+商业运营"双轮驱动战略，发挥运营优势，正展现出良好的生 长韧性。 净利润水平稳步提升 报告期内，新城控股实现营业收入889.99亿元，其中主营业务收入中，房地产开发销售本期实现营业收 入760.41亿元，物业出租及管理实现营业收入120.29亿元；归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的 净利润8.70亿元，较去年同期增长183.07%。 针对市场的变化，公司通过制定合理的经营战略，把握市场窗口，进行营销推广，提升货值 ...

深圳市皇庭国际企业股份有限公司是一家以商业地产开发和商业经营为主的企业，公司的主营业务是商 业不动产运营管理业务、资产管理业务以及各配套服务业务。公司的主要产品及服务有商业运营服务、 金融服务、融资租赁服务。 最新一期业绩显示，2024年三季报，公司实现营业收入5.23亿元，同比-48.41%；净利润-261575350.07 元，同比48.84%，销售毛利率59.88%。 4月7日，皇庭国际今日收盘3.0元，下跌9.91%，最新市净率4.95，总市值36.30亿元。 序号股票简称PE(TTM)PE(静)市净率总市值(元)8皇庭国际-4.14-3.224.9536.30亿行业平均 59.4658.242.9543.75亿行业中值66.7254.311.9239.56亿1群兴玩具-379.88573.246.3752.57亿2市北高 新-36.54-44.691.2679.43亿3云南城投-20.53-49.762.7237.73亿4世联行-14.12-14.431.4142.65亿5我爱我 家-8.51-7.750.6965.72亿6电子城-6.10-23.350.6141.39亿7阳光股份-5.12-4.8 ...

Core Viewpoint - China International Trade reported a stable performance in 2024 with a slight decrease in revenue and a modest increase in net profit, indicating resilience in its operations despite market challenges [1][2]. Revenue and Profit Summary - The company achieved a revenue of 3.912 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 1.05% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.262 billion yuan, showing a year-over-year increase of 0.25% [1]. Rental Income and Cost Management - Total rental income remained stable at 2.88 billion yuan, with a year-over-year decrease of 1.14% [1]. - Breakdown of rental income by property type: - Office buildings: 1.48 billion yuan (yoy -3.3%) - Shopping malls: 1.22 billion yuan (yoy +1.0%) - Apartments: 190 million yuan (yoy +2.2%) [1]. - The company maintained a gross profit margin of 58.14%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points year-over-year, contributing to the slight rise in net profit [1]. Rental Rates and Occupancy - Rental rates and occupancy remained stable across different property types: - Office buildings: Average rent of 639 yuan/sqm/month (yoy +0.2%), occupancy rate of 93.1% (yoy -2.8pct) - Shopping malls: Average rent of 1,309 yuan/sqm/month (yoy +2.3%), occupancy rate of 96.5% (yoy -1.7pct) - Apartments: Average rent of 367 yuan/sqm/month (yoy -1.0%), occupancy rate of 88.9% (yoy +3.0pct) [2]. Dividend and Debt Structure - The company proposed a cash dividend of 11.00 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 1.108 billion yuan, resulting in a high dividend payout ratio of 88% [2]. - The total borrowings decreased to 1.09 billion yuan, a year-over-year reduction of 31.1%, with the debt-to-asset ratio declining to 21.6% [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 4.0 billion yuan, 4.06 billion yuan, and 4.12 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profits of 1.3 billion yuan, 1.33 billion yuan, and 1.35 billion yuan respectively [3]. - Corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected at 17.9x, 17.5x, and 17.1x for the same period [3].

2024年，龙湖商业出租率稳步提升至97%，收入同步稳增，租金收入109.8亿元，同比增7%。 销售及客流量双位数增长，营业额超730亿元，同比增长16%，日均客流超320万人次/天，同比增长 25%。 2024年，龙湖商业轻重并举，以重带轻、以轻促重，全年新开业11座天街，截至期末，合并分期商场 后，累计运营商场达89座。 2024年，随着购物中心存量规模的扩大,同质化竞争加剧,业态趋同、空间同质化成为行业痛点。行业分 化显著，头部聚集效应明显，收入前十的企业收入总额约占总体的45%,显示出行业集中度进一步提 高。 在空置率高企、租金下行、开发放缓的大势之下，消费需求升级推动业态创新，政策支持与数字化赋能 加速存量改造。2024年，存量改造成为增长点。部分企业通过轻资产输出方式拓展管理规模,头部企业 更聚焦于经济发达、消费市场活力强的高能级城市。 创新无止境 独辟蹊径与一份崭新的成绩单 这是一个创新无止境的年代，当人均收入迈过一万美元之后，从物质到精神的需求跃升，带来是空间 的"富氧"需求，走过看过，满目清新，心神愉悦。对于年轻的一代来说，新的商业、新的空间，已成为 必不可少的生活方式。 这是一份崭新的成绩 ...

Group 1 - Hualian Co., Ltd. has experienced a continuous decline in stock price for five consecutive trading days, with a cumulative drop of -8.33% [1] - The company underwent a business restructuring in 2007, shifting its main operations from department store retail to commercial real estate investment, development, leasing, and management of shopping centers [1] - Southern Fund's Southern CSI Real Estate ETF has entered the top ten shareholders of Hualian Co., Ltd., marking its new entry in the fourth quarter of last year [1] Group 2 - The Southern CSI Real Estate ETF has reported a year-to-date return of -5.30%, ranking 3323 out of 3442 in its category [2] - The ETF's performance over various periods shows a decline: -1.30% over the past week, -4.43% over the past month, and -5.30% year-to-date [2] - The average performance of similar funds has been better, with a year-to-date average return of 2.84% [2] Group 3 - The fund manager of the Southern CSI Real Estate ETF is Ms. Luo Wenjie, who holds a master's degree in Mathematical Finance from the University of Southern California and a master's in Computer Science from the University of California [3] - Ms. Luo has extensive experience in quantitative analysis, having previously worked at Morgan Stanley Investment Bank before joining Southern Fund in 2008 [3][4] - She has managed various funds over her career, including the Southern CSI Real Estate ETF since its inception [4]

中国国际贸易中心股份有限公司 中国国际贸易中心股份有限公司全体股东： 根据《企业内部控制基本规范》及其配套指引的规定和其他内部控制监管要求（以下简称企业内部 控制规范体系），结合本公司（以下简称公司）内部控制制度和评价办法，在内部控制日常监督和专项 监督的基础上，我们对公司2024年12月31日（内部控制评价报告基准日）的内部控制有效性进行了评 价。 一. 重要声明 按照企业内部控制规范体系的规定，建立健全和有效实施内部控制，评价其有效性，并如实披露内 部控制评价报告是公司董事会的责任。监事会对董事会建立和实施内部控制进行监督。经理层负责组织 领导企业内部控制的日常运行。公司董事会、监事会及董事、监事、高级管理人员保证本报告内容不存 在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏，并对报告内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带法 律责任。 公司内部控制的目标是合理保证经营管理合法合规、资产安全、财务报告及相关信息真实完整，提 高经营效率和效果，促进实现发展战略。由于内部控制存在的固有局限性，故仅能为实现上述目标提供 合理保证。此外，由于情况的变化可能导致内部控制变得不恰当，或对控制政策和程序遵循的程度降 低， 根据 ...

Core Points - The Supervisory Board of China International Trade Center Co., Ltd. has actively fulfilled its responsibilities and conducted work to protect the legitimate rights and interests of all shareholders during the reporting period [1][2] - The Supervisory Board reviewed and approved several key resolutions, including the 2023 annual financial settlement and profit distribution plan [1][2] Group 1 - The Supervisory Board approved the 2023 annual work report and financial settlement [1] - The profit distribution and special dividend plan for 2023 was also approved [1] - The internal control evaluation report for 2023 was reviewed and approved [1] Group 2 - The Supervisory Board confirmed that the company’s decision-making processes complied with relevant laws and regulations [2] - A standard unqualified audit report was issued, indicating that the financial statements accurately reflect the company's financial status and operating results [2] - The Supervisory Board expressed appreciation for the diligent work of the board of directors and senior management, encouraging continued adherence to legal regulations and improvement in management practices [2]

中国国贸独立董事 2024 年度述职报告 中国国际贸易中心股份有限公司 独立董事2024年度述职报告 致股东： 年度内，本人严格按照《公司法》《上市公司治理准则》《上市公司独立董事管 理办法》《上海证券交易所股票上市规则》等有关法律法规和公司章程的规定，积极 履行职责，恪尽职守，认真审议公司董事会各项议案，从客观、公正立场出发，作出 独立判断。现将2024年度的履职情况报告如下： 一、独立董事的基本情况 作为公司的独立董事，本人拥有专业资质及能力，在从事的专业领域积累了丰富 的经验，不存在影响独立性的情况。 本人简历：香港会计师公会会员，毕业于香港理工学院（现为香港理工大学）， 同年加入安永会计师事务所工作，1994年成为合伙人，2020年6月退休。1994年至 的企业重组及上市经验，现担任东风汽车集团股份有限公司（于香港上市之公司）、 Ding Dong（Cayman） Limited"叮咚买菜"（于纽约上市之公司）、上海化学工业区 工业气体有限公司及浙江网商银行股份有限公司之独立非执行董事；本公司第九届董 事会独立董事、审计委员会委员、薪酬委员会委员。 报告期内，本人认真审阅了公司年度内部审计工作计划，督 ...