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2026年“AI牛市叙事”的暗雷:美国科技巨头们的“折旧把戏”
智通财经网· 2025-12-23 12:11
这种恶劣的会计舞弊——事实上也是刑事欺诈,曾经引发了美股市场的重大变革,其中最著名的就是 《萨班斯—奥克斯利法案》(Sarbanes-Oxley Act)。它使得美国上市公司中的赤裸造假在很大程度上成为 过去式。 通常来说,当一个会计性质的问题在华尔街成为一段时间内的热门话题时,对于股票市场而言绝对不是 一个好兆头。这就是为什么,近期围绕美国科技巨头们AI算力基础设施"折旧年限"安排与计划的相关热 门讨论,应当让那些深度沉醉于AI投资热潮的投资者们在迈向2026年之际保持警惕。 一般来说,金融市场上的由那些编制公司财务报表的人所争论的事项过于晦涩——而且坦率地说,也过 于乏味,因此在本世纪初期以前几乎没有引起股票投资者们的积极探索兴趣。 然而,自本世纪初期以来,会计造假问题在安然(Enron)、世通(WorldCom)以及阿德尔菲亚通信公司 (Adelphia Communications)等曾经在资本市场上红极一时的热门公司被揭露使用欺骗性会计做法之 后,"会计造假"这一长时间以来在资本市场沉积的词条时不时就能够登上新闻头条,且往往引起热议后 不久,股票市场可能迎来一波极速下坠。 这些公司迅速从看似辉煌的" ...
英伟达真正的对手是谁
经济观察报· 2025-12-23 11:22
Core Viewpoint - NVIDIA currently holds a near-monopoly in the AI training and inference chip market, driven by advanced technology and an unmatched ecosystem, making it the highest-valued public company globally with a market capitalization of approximately $4.5 trillion as of November 2025, and a year-over-year revenue growth of about 62% in Q3 2025 [2]. Competitive Landscape - NVIDIA faces competition from traditional chip giants like AMD and Intel, as well as tech companies like Google and Amazon with their custom chips, and emerging players like Cerebras and Groq. However, none have significantly challenged NVIDIA's leadership position so far [2]. - The AI compute chip market has two main applications: training and inference, with training being the core bottleneck in the early and mid-stages of large model development [4][5]. Training Dominance - NVIDIA's dominance in training compute stems from advanced technology and a monopolistic ecosystem. The training of large models requires massive computational power, necessitating large-scale chip clusters and a comprehensive software system to connect engineers, chips, and models [6]. - Key requirements for training chips include single-chip performance, interconnect capabilities, and software ecosystem [6]. - NVIDIA excels in single-chip performance, but competitors like AMD are closing the gap. However, this alone does not threaten NVIDIA's lead in AI training [7]. - Interconnect capabilities are crucial for large model training, with NVIDIA's proprietary NVLink and NVSwitch enabling efficient interconnectivity at a scale of tens of thousands of chips, while competitors struggle to achieve similar scales [7]. Ecosystem Advantage - NVIDIA's ecosystem advantage is primarily software-based, with CUDA being a well-established programming platform that fosters a strong developer community and extensive resources, enhancing user stickiness [8][9]. - The ecosystem's network effects mean that as more developers engage with CUDA, its value increases, creating a significant barrier to entry for competitors [10]. Inference Market Dynamics - Inference requires significantly fewer chips than training, leading to reduced interconnect demands. Consequently, NVIDIA's ecosystem advantage is less pronounced in inference compared to training [12]. - Despite this, NVIDIA still holds over 70% of the inference market share due to its competitive performance, price, and development costs [13]. Challenges to NVIDIA - Competitors must overcome both technical and ecosystem challenges to compete with NVIDIA. If they cannot avoid ecosystem disadvantages, they must achieve significant technological advancements [15]. - In the U.S., challengers are focusing on custom AI chips (ASICs), with Google's TPU showing promising results. However, the ecological disadvantage remains a significant hurdle [16]. - In China, U.S. export restrictions on advanced chips have created a protected market, limiting NVIDIA's ecosystem influence and presenting opportunities for local chip manufacturers [17][18]. Strategic Considerations - The geopolitical landscape has led to a potential rise of strong domestic competitors in China, as developers begin to adapt to local ecosystems like CANN, despite initial challenges [19]. - The U.S. government's recent policy shift allowing NVIDIA to sell advanced chips to China under specific conditions reflects a recognition of the need to maintain NVIDIA's competitive edge while managing technological disparities [19]. - A balanced approach is necessary for China to foster its AI chip industry while allowing for essential imports to support core AI projects [19].
摩尔线程张建中和他的伙伴们
YOUNG财经 漾财经· 2025-12-23 11:19
Core Viewpoint - Moore Threads is a comprehensive GPU chip developer and AI computing solution provider that aims to become the domestic alternative to NVIDIA, achieving a strong market presence with a significant valuation and rapid growth in revenue [4][18]. Group 1: Company Overview - Moore Threads was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's Sci-Tech Innovation Board on December 5, achieving a remarkable closing increase of 425.46%, with a total market capitalization of 282.25 billion [4]. - The company aims to capitalize on the booming AI sector, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 208.44% in revenue from 2022 to 2024 [4]. - As of 2025, Moore Threads is ranked 212th on the Hurun Global Unicorn List with a valuation of 31 billion yuan [4]. Group 2: Leadership and Founders - Zhang Jianzhong, the founder and chairman, holds 11.06% of the company's shares and controls 36.36% through various holding platforms, with his stake valued at over 4.3 billion USD (approximately 304 billion yuan) [6][7]. - Zhang has a strong background in the GPU industry, having previously served as NVIDIA's Vice President and General Manager for Greater China, where he significantly increased NVIDIA's market share in China from under 50% to nearly 80% [7][10]. - The founding team includes several key figures from NVIDIA and other tech companies, contributing to the rapid growth and success of Moore Threads [13][14]. Group 3: Product and Market Strategy - Moore Threads aims to develop a "fully functional GPU" that supports graphics rendering, scientific computing (including AI), and multimedia encoding, distinguishing itself from other domestic chip companies [17][18]. - The company has successfully produced five GPU chips and has maintained a rhythm of releasing one new GPU architecture annually from 2021 to 2024, with significant milestones in product development [19]. - The Chinese GPU market is projected to exceed 120 billion yuan by 2025, indicating a substantial growth opportunity for Moore Threads [18]. Group 4: Financial Performance and Challenges - In 2024, Moore Threads reported a revenue of 438 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 253%, despite a high R&D expense ratio of 310% [20]. - The company is currently in discussions for orders exceeding 2 billion yuan, covering various sectors including AI computing and professional graphics acceleration [20]. - Moore Threads is positioned to achieve significant performance growth by 2027, with a potential for profitability in the same year [20].
贝仕达克拟参与投资深圳力合算芯二号创业投资企业
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-23 11:10
智通财经APP讯,贝仕达克(300822.SZ)发布公告,为促进公司长远发展,充分借助专业投资机构的专业 资源与投资管理优势,公司拟与专业投资机构力合中科私募股权基金管理(深圳)有限公司(以下简称"力 合中科")及公司实际控制人、董事长兼总经理肖萍先生之子肖龙涛先生等投资人共同投资深圳力合算芯 二号创业投资企业(有限合伙)(以下简称"合伙企业"、"基金"),并签署《深圳力合算芯二号创业投资企 业(有限合伙)合伙协议》(以下简称"合伙协议")。公司拟使用自有资金认缴出资不超过2000万元(含),认 缴出资比例为12.8452%。合伙企业的投资方向为GPU算力芯片及相关领域的未上市企业。 ...
港股“国产GPU第一股”来了!
Jin Rong Shi Bao· 2025-12-23 11:10
Core Viewpoint - The successful listing of Wallen Technology on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange marks a significant milestone for the domestic GPU industry, positioning it as the first domestic GPU stock in Hong Kong and the first company to be listed in 2026 [1][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - Wallen Technology, established in 2019, focuses on the design of GPU chips and the development of general-purpose graphics processing units (GPGPU) and intelligent computing solutions for AI [4]. - The company has entered the first tier of domestic GPU manufacturers, alongside other notable firms such as Moer Technology and Muxi Technology [1][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Wallen Technology's revenue is projected to grow rapidly, increasing from 499,000 yuan in 2022 to 337 million yuan in 2024, with a 50% year-on-year growth in the first half of 2025 [4]. - Despite this growth, the company has not yet achieved profitability, with expected net losses of 1.538 billion yuan in 2024 and 1.6 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [4]. Group 3: IPO Details - Wallen Technology plans to issue approximately 247.69 million H-shares, with 95% allocated for international offering and 5% for public offering, potentially raising up to 6.42 billion HKD if the overallotment option is fully exercised [3]. - The IPO will utilize the 18C mechanism, allowing companies with significant investments and long development cycles to list even if they are not yet profitable [4]. Group 4: Market Context - The domestic GPU industry is experiencing a surge in interest and investment, with multiple companies like Moer Technology and Muxi Technology also entering the capital markets [5]. - The demand for computing power is rapidly increasing, driven by the early stages of AI technology development, with significant growth expected in semiconductor equipment sales [5]. Group 5: Industry Trends - The market penetration of domestic AI chips has been rising due to the U.S.-China tech rivalry and domestic substitution policies, although the industry is still in its early development stage [6]. - Domestic GPU manufacturers face challenges in performance and software ecosystem compared to international giants but have advantages in localized services and cost control [6].
贝仕达克:拟不超2000万元投资深圳力合算芯二号创投企业
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-12-23 11:08
人民财讯12月23日电,贝仕达克(300822)12月23日公告,公司拟与专业投资机构力合中科私募股权基 金管理(深圳)有限公司及公司实控人、董事长兼总经理肖萍之子肖龙涛等共同投资深圳力合算芯二号创 业投资企业(有限合伙)。公司拟认缴出资不超过2000万元(含),认缴出资比例为12.8452%。该合伙企业 的投资方向为GPU算力芯片及相关领域的未上市企业。 ...
艰难五连阳,到底是去是留?
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-12-23 11:07
Group 1 - The market is likely to face a correction after five consecutive days of gains, but the adjustment may not be significant due to some short sellers exiting their positions [1] - Investors holding stocks are advised to consider high sell-low buy strategies, while those without positions should look to enter around the 20-day moving average during the correction [1] - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing divergence due to the failure of the Long March 12 rocket recovery, with some stocks hitting the limit down, but the overall market sentiment remains cautious about the sector's future performance [1] Group 2 - The chip and liquid cooling sectors showed good performance, with expectations of a rebound following a previous correlation with the index, but there is a need to monitor which stocks can unify after initial divergence [2] - Consumer stocks were expected to perform well during the market pullback, but key stocks experienced a high-to-low reversal, raising concerns if they do not recover soon [2] - Other sectors like lithium batteries, chemicals, and resource stocks were influenced by news but did not exhibit strong sector effects, indicating a lack of significant momentum [2]
贝仕达克(300822.SZ)拟参与投资深圳力合算芯二号创业投资企业
智通财经网· 2025-12-23 11:06
智通财经APP讯,贝仕达克(300822.SZ)发布公告,为促进公司长远发展,充分借助专业投资机构的专业 资源与投资管理优势,公司拟与专业投资机构力合中科私募股权基金管理(深圳)有限公司(以下简称"力 合中科")及公司实际控制人、董事长兼总经理肖萍先生之子肖龙涛先生等投资人共同投资深圳力合算芯 二号创业投资企业(有限合伙)(以下简称"合伙企业"、"基金"),并签署《深圳力合算芯二号创业投资企 业(有限合伙)合伙协议》(以下简称"合伙协议")。公司拟使用自有资金认缴出资不超过2000万元(含),认 缴出资比例为12.8452%。合伙企业的投资方向为GPU算力芯片及相关领域的未上市企业。 ...
贝仕达克:拟与专业投资机构共同投资合伙企业 投资方向为GPU算力芯片及相关领域的未上市企业
Ge Long Hui· 2025-12-23 10:49
格隆汇12月23日丨贝仕达克(300822.SZ)公布,为促进公司长远发展,充分借助专业投资机构的专业资 源与投资管理优势,公司拟与专业投资机构力合中科私募股权基金管理(深圳)有限公司(简称"力合 中科")及公司实际控制人、董事长兼总经理肖萍先生之子肖龙涛先生;罗辑先生;陈文宏先生;上海 朗临电气有限公司(简称"朗临电气");深圳市昊天林新能源科技有限公司(简称"昊天林");海南裕 宝通科技有限公司(简称"裕宝通");六安名家汇光电科技有限公司(简称"名家汇光电")共同投资深 圳力合算芯二号创业投资企业(有限合伙)(简称"合伙企业"、"基金"),并签署《深圳力合算芯二号 创业投资企业(有限合伙)合伙协议》。公司拟使用自有资金认缴出资不超过2,000万元(含),认缴 出资比例为12.8452%。合伙企业的投资方向为GPU算力芯片及相关领域的未上市企业。 ...
贝仕达克(300822.SZ):拟与专业投资机构共同投资合伙企业 投资方向为GPU算力芯片及相关领域的未上市企业
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-23 10:48
格隆汇12月23日丨贝仕达克(300822.SZ)公布,为促进公司长远发展,充分借助专业投资机构的专业资 源与投资管理优势,公司拟与专业投资机构力合中科私募股权基金管理(深圳)有限公司(简称"力合 中科")及公司实际控制人、董事长兼总经理肖萍先生之子肖龙涛先生;罗辑先生;陈文宏先生;上海 朗临电气有限公司(简称"朗临电气");深圳市昊天林新能源科技有限公司(简称"昊天林");海南裕 宝通科技有限公司(简称"裕宝通");六安名家汇光电科技有限公司(简称"名家汇光电")共同投资深 圳力合算芯二号创业投资企业(有限合伙)(简称"合伙企业"、"基金"),并签署《深圳力合算芯二号 创业投资企业(有限合伙)合伙协议》。公司拟使用自有资金认缴出资不超过2,000万元(含),认缴 出资比例为12.8452%。合伙企业的投资方向为GPU算力芯片及相关领域的未上市企业。 ...