农产品种植

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加纳薯蓣价格暴跌
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-08-15 16:01
(原标题:加纳薯蓣价格暴跌) 据"加纳新闻网"8月13日报道,加纳东部地区的薯蓣(山药)正遭受有史以来最严重的价格暴跌, 农场交货价已从最近几季的每百块茎6000多塞地暴跌至400塞地,许多种植户因无法收回成本陷入财务 危机。 跌价原因在于产销对接不畅、收获期供应过剩以及运输成本高昂,由于储存方式有限,农民们争相 在薯蓣变质前仓促出售。这场危机如今威胁着以薯蓣种植为经济支柱的地区的粮食安全和就业。如果政 府不加以干预,随着农民放弃种植薯蓣,加纳作为全球最大薯蓣出口国的地位可能会逐渐丧失。 ...
NASS vs. FSA —— 再论8月USDA报告
对冲研投· 2025-08-15 12:39
Core Viewpoint - The article focuses on the adjustments made in the August USDA report regarding the new crop soybean balance sheet, emphasizing the flexibility of yield adjustments compared to planting area estimates, and the potential impact of weather conditions on soybean production [4][14]. Group 1: Yield Adjustments - The USDA report indicates that soybean yields in most major producing states have been revised upwards, with some states reaching historical highs due to favorable weather conditions in July [5]. - Historical data shows that there has been no significant bias in the August yield estimates compared to final yields over the past 20 years, suggesting that yield adjustments can be substantial [7]. - Weather forecasts indicate ongoing risks, with dry conditions in early August potentially affecting soybean yields during critical growth stages [10]. Group 2: Planting Area Estimates - The article discusses the differences in planting area estimates between NASS and FSA, with NASS estimating 8.09 million acres and FSA estimating 7.976 million acres for soybean planting in 2025, a difference of approximately 1 million acres [15]. - NASS uses a comprehensive data collection method, while FSA relies on producer reports, leading to differences in data coverage and classification [16][17]. - The article suggests that the FSA's preliminary planting area can be used to estimate NASS's final planting area, with projections indicating a potential reduction of about 1.5 million acres from the June report [27]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The soybean market outlook indicates that if the U.S. and China reach an agreement on tariff reductions, soybean exports could increase, potentially tightening the soybean balance sheet further [14]. - Conversely, if significant yield losses occur, the USDA may reduce export and crushing estimates to stabilize ending stocks [14]. - The pricing dynamics for soybean meal are influenced by U.S.-China trade relations, with potential upward price pressure if trade agreements are reached, despite possible short-term supply pressures [28].
美国农业部(USDA)月度供需报告数据分析专题:中国再度下调2026年牛肉产量,牛价景气预计向上-20250815
Guoxin Securities· 2025-08-15 08:38
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [6] Core Insights - The agricultural sector is expected to experience upward trends in beef prices due to a reduction in U.S. beef production forecasts for 2026 [4] - The report highlights a tightening supply-demand balance for corn, with prices expected to maintain a moderate upward trend [2] - The soybean market is influenced by U.S. trade policies and weather conditions, with a positive long-term outlook [2] - Wheat supply remains ample, with prices expected to stabilize at lower levels [3] - Sugar prices are anticipated to fluctuate due to increased imports and oil price volatility [3] - Cotton prices are expected to remain weak until demand shows positive changes [3] - The dairy sector is projected to see a rebound in raw milk prices driven by a reduction in supply and increased demand [5] Summary by Sections Corn - The USDA report indicates a global corn production increase of 24.92 million tons (approximately +1.97%) for the 2025/26 season, with a slight increase in global ending stocks [17] - China's corn ending stocks are projected to decrease by 0.31 percentage points to 55.50% [19] - Domestic corn prices are currently at a historical low, with a strong support expected for future price recovery [20] Soybeans - The USDA report forecasts a reduction in global soybean production by 1.29 million tons for the 2025/26 season, with ending stocks decreasing by 1.17 million tons [32] - The soybean market is sensitive to U.S. trade policies and weather, with a strong price support expected in Q4 2025 [34] Wheat - The USDA report predicts a decrease in global wheat production by 1.65 million tons for the 2025/26 season, with a slight reduction in the ending stocks-to-use ratio [49] - Overall supply remains sufficient, with prices expected to stabilize [3] Sugar - The market anticipates a good harvest for the 2025/26 season, but prices may remain weak due to increased imports and fluctuating oil prices [3] Cotton - The USDA report indicates a reduction in global cotton production forecasts, with a stable supply-demand balance expected [3] Beef - The USDA has lowered its forecast for U.S. beef production in 2026, leading to an expected increase in beef prices [4] - The domestic beef market is showing resilience, with prices expected to trend upwards in 2025 [4] Dairy - The USDA forecasts an increase in U.S. milk production and consumption for 2026, with a slight increase in ending stocks [5] - Domestic raw milk prices are expected to rebound in the second half of 2025 due to supply reductions and increased demand [5] Pork - The USDA projects a slight increase in U.S. pork consumption in 2026, with domestic production expected to remain stable [8] Poultry - The U.S. poultry market is expected to recover, with increased consumption predicted for 2026 [8]
新疆产区减产有限 红枣供大于求格局难改
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-08-14 01:27
整体看,阿克苏地区枣树坐果情况分化,预计红枣产量较正常年份减少15%。 兵团第一师:预计减产20% 今年5—6月,新疆南疆地区沙尘天气较多,靠近沙漠的红枣产区头茬果坐果不佳,部分地区二茬果坐果 也受到一定影响。不过,红枣产量主要看二茬果、三茬果坐果情况,加上今年减产是区域性的,并非 2021年、2023年的全面减产,属于较正常年份略有减产的小年。 阿克苏:枣园坐果情况分化 正常年份阿克苏地区(不含兵团)红枣总产量在9万吨左右。其中,阿克苏市、温宿县红枣产量各4万 吨。 阿克苏枣园主要分布在实验林场、南工业园区以及拜什吐格曼乡、喀拉塔勒镇(空台里克农场)。实验 林场南部枣园坐果情况不好、北部枣园坐果情况较好。南工业园区、拜什吐格曼乡枣园整体坐果情况良 好。喀拉塔勒镇(空台里克农场)枣园外部坐果情况良好,内部由于矮化密植导致坐果不佳,有减产迹 象。 温宿县枣园主要分布在依希来木其乡、克孜勒镇、佳木镇、柯柯牙镇、共青团镇。依希来木其乡气温偏 低,枣果生长期滞后。笔者进行第二轮调研时发现当地枣果个头较小,坐果情况存在较大不确定性。第 三轮调研时,依希来木其乡枣果已长到花生米大小,数量较多。克孜勒镇整体坐果情况一般,部 ...
北虫草“闯”世界
Liao Ning Ri Bao· 2025-08-13 01:06
为推动更多的北虫草走出国门,为种植户带来收益,沈阳海关所属辽阳海关成立专项服务组,创 新"备案+监管+通关"三位一体机制,将多项出口资质办理时限压缩60%,并举办十余场"云端课堂",为 企业传授覆盖农药使用、疫病监测和有害物质控制的全链条质控知识。同时,海关精准回应鲜活产 品"抢鲜"所需,开辟农食"绿色通道",构建"全链条护航"模式。针对海外订单小批量、高频次特点,灵 活运用"优先查验+预约查验",实现北虫草"即报即检、快速验放"。 小小北虫草,已成为当地致富的宝贝。如今在灯塔市,400余栋虫草大棚铺展开来,从菌种培育、 精深加工到全球贸易,一条完整的产业链已经形成,年产值超千万元。更为可喜的是,产业兴旺直接惠 及农民,带动周边4个村庄300余户增收致富。 在辽阳灯塔市柳条寨镇金康农业合作社的无菌车间里,中央控制系统精密调节着温度、湿度和光 线,立体栽培架上的北虫草如金色细浪般整齐铺展。同时,工人们正将一批两吨重的虫草小心地装箱, 准备发往新加坡。 灯塔市富产的小麦等绿色原料,为北虫草的培育提供了天然材料。北虫草富含虫草素、多糖等活性 成分,可以增强免疫力,而且价格亲民,不仅风靡国内市场,更日益赢得欧美、日韩 ...
【环球财经】芝加哥农产品期价12日涨跌互现
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-12 23:01
Group 1: Corn Market Analysis - The Chicago futures market saw mixed price movements for corn, with December contracts closing at $3.9450 per bushel, down 13.25 cents or 3.25% from the previous trading day [1] - The USDA's August crop report indicated a corn production of 16.7 billion bushels, an increase of 1.875 billion bushels from last year, with a record yield of 188.8 bushels per acre [1] - The report also highlighted a significant increase in corn planting area to 97 million acres, exceeding the USDA's June estimate by 2.1 million acres, contributing to an oversupply in the corn market [1] Group 2: Soybean Market Analysis - The USDA reported a decrease in soybean planting area by 2.9 million acres to 80.9 million acres, while the yield reached a historical high of 53.6 bushels per acre, resulting in a total production of 4.292 billion bushels, which is 74 million bushels lower than last year [2] - The forecast for U.S. soybean exports was revised down by 40 million bushels to 1.705 billion bushels, with ending stocks adjusted to 290 million bushels [2][3] - Global soybean ending stocks for the 2025-2026 period were lowered to 12.49 million tons [3] Group 3: Wheat Market Analysis - The USDA's report indicated stable wheat production, with a slight downward adjustment of 2 million bushels, while exports were increased by 25 million bushels, leading to a reduction in ending stocks to 869 million bushels, which is still 18 million bushels higher than last year [3] - Global wheat ending stocks for the 2025-2026 period are projected at 26.01 million tons [4] - The report suggests that the oversupply in the corn market will overshadow the wheat market dynamics, with potential increases in wheat production from major exporting countries [3][4]
四川丹棱:“幸福山货”出山 产业“赋能加码”
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2025-08-12 14:42
Core Insights - The event "Happiness Mountain Goods Festival: Li Xiang Shunlong Season" in Danling County showcased local agricultural products and cultural heritage, attracting guests and merchants to promote rural development [1][2][3] Group 1: Agricultural Products - The high-altitude crispy red plums, known as "red agate," are cultivated in a 12,000-acre orchard, yielding an annual output of 15,000 tons, characterized by a sweet and slightly sour taste [2] - The region also features over 300 acres of Dendrobium cultivation, producing various tea products, and an 8,400-acre high-altitude tea garden that offers refreshing green tea [2] - Local specialties include traditionally smoked cured meats, free-range chickens, and honey made from wildflowers, reflecting the community's agricultural richness [2] Group 2: Cultural Heritage - The event highlighted traditional tea culture through tea ceremonies and showcased the craftsmanship of woodblock printing, allowing attendees to experience the depth of local cultural heritage [2] - The festival served as a platform for promoting local intangible cultural heritage, enhancing community engagement and cultural appreciation [2] Group 3: Tourism and Investment - The event facilitated investment in local homestays, with potential for transforming idle farmhouses into operational accommodations, enhancing rural tourism [3] - Collaborations were established between local villages and homestay operators to develop boutique accommodations, contributing to the preservation of local culture and heritage [3] - Future plans include ongoing seasonal agricultural product events to attract more visitors to Danling and promote the integration of agriculture, culture, and tourism [4]
土特产有了“科技范” 江西瑞昌推动特色农产品转型升级
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-08-12 12:42
中新网江西瑞昌8月12日电(卢梦梦 张玉周 刘懿格)初秋时节,江西省瑞昌市黑芝麻科技小院的种植基地 内一派生机,连片的黑芝麻长势喜人。"基地采取'油芝轮作'模式,收割完油菜后,就立即栽种黑芝 麻,提高土地利用效率。"瑞昌市黑芝麻科技小院种植基地负责人李兴介绍。 得益于得天独厚的生长环境优势,瑞昌黑芝麻皮薄、黑亮、饱满,气味清香,回味甘甜,具有明显的地 域特征。近年来,瑞昌市通过创建黑芝麻标准化种植和生产基地,不断加强生产技术规程制定,创建农 产品区域公共品牌,带动农业增效、农民增收。前不久,"瑞昌黑芝麻"已正式认定为国家地理标志保护 产品。 江西省瑞昌市黑芝麻科技小院种植基地。 瑞昌市融媒体中心供图 "芝麻浑身都是宝,芝麻籽可以榨油,芝麻叶可以做鲜菜,芝麻秆还是培育食用菌的好原料。"李兴介 绍,为了提高基地黑芝麻品种的丰产性和抗病性,增加黑芝麻产量,基地与江西多家科研机构和高校合 作,开展瑞昌市芝麻品种对比研究,助力黑芝麻产业提质增效。 "基地目前主要种植抗病虫害能力强的瑞昌黑芝麻老品种和赣芝14号,目前头批栽种的黑芝麻已经开 花,预计下个月就能收割。此外,由于芝麻种植不连片且秆纤细、韧性强,不便于机械收割, ...
兴业期货日度策略-20250812
Xing Ye Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 10:53
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the financial futures market, the market sentiment is positive, and the profit - making effect persists. The long position in the CSI 300 Index IF2509 can be held. In the commodity futures market, lithium carbonate and polysilicon are likely to rise in the short term[1]. - The stock index may continue to fluctuate upward in August under the influence of policy support, the recovery of corporate earnings from the bottom, and abundant liquidity. The bond market is in a volatile pattern with potential upward pressure and significant long - term risks[1]. - Gold prices have strong support, and silver maintains a long - position pattern. Copper, aluminum, nickel, and other non - ferrous metals are in a volatile pattern. Lithium carbonate is bullish, and polysilicon has support at the bottom[1][4][5][6]. - Steel products such as rebar, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore are in a volatile pattern. Coke and coking coal are cautiously bullish. Soda ash and float glass are in a volatile pattern[5][6][7]. - Crude oil is in a short - term bearish pattern. Methanol, polyolefin are in a volatile pattern. Cotton is in a bearish pattern, and rubber is cautiously bullish[9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Futures 3.1.1 Stock Index - The market sentiment is positive, with the ChiNext Index leading the rise on Monday. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets expanded to 1.85 trillion yuan. Industries such as computers, communications, and electronics led the gains, while the banking, petrochemical, and coal sectors declined slightly. The stock index futures rose with the spot market, and the basis discount of each contract was repaired. With policy support, the recovery of corporate earnings from the bottom, and abundant liquidity, the stock index may continue to fluctuate upward in August. It is advisable to hold a long - position mindset and pay attention to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the effect of anti - involution policies[1]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond - The bond market sentiment is weak, and the long - end pressure continues. The inflation performance is average, the real estate expectation has improved, and the anti - involution expectation persists. The overseas trade relationship is still volatile, and there is uncertainty. The central bank has a net withdrawal in the open market, and the cost of funds has slightly recovered but remains at a low level. The bond market has support under the liquidity support, but the potential positive factors are limited, and the negative factors are increasing. The market sentiment is fragile, and the valuation is high, so there is still pressure above the bond futures, especially for long - term bonds[1]. 3.2 Commodity Futures 3.2.1 Precious Metals - Gold prices are supported by factors such as the risk of stagflation in the United States, interest - rate cut expectations, the debt cycle, and the US dollar credit. Although the gold price encountered resistance and pulled back when testing the pressure level again, the support below is still strong. The gold - silver ratio still has room for repair, and the long - position pattern of silver is clear. It is recommended to continue holding the short - position of out - of - the - money put options on the 10 - contract of gold and silver, and patiently hold the long - position of silver[4]. 3.2.2 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price is affected by factors such as general inflation performance, improved real estate expectations, and volatile overseas trade relations. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is strong, but the inflation impact persists, and the US dollar index has risen slightly. The supply and demand situation is complex, with some copper mines in Chile resuming production while others near the accident site remaining closed. The domestic demand in the peak season has optimistic expectations, but the US copper import demand may be weak. The copper price may continue to fluctuate[4]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: The macro - environment is similar to that of copper. The alumina supply is expected to be in surplus, and the inventory of Shanghai aluminum is accumulating, but the seasonal pressure may gradually decrease. The supply increase is limited due to capacity constraints. The aluminum alloy is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be in a volatile range[4]. - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel ore is relatively abundant, the price of nickel iron has strengthened slightly, the intermediate product capacity is still sufficient, and the refined nickel is in a clear surplus with high inventory. Affected by positive factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, the extension of the Sino - US tariff truce, and the promotion of anti - involution policies, the nickel price has rebounded from a low level, but the surplus fundamentals limit the upside. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and the short - option strategy is relatively advantageous[6]. 3.2.3 Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: The shutdown of the Jiaxiaowo Mine has boosted market sentiment, and the lithium price is likely to rise in the short term. However, the probability of all 7 lithium - related mines in Yichun shutting down is low, and the high - price lithium salt has stimulated the production enthusiasm of the smelting sector, leading to the accumulation of inventory. Attention should be paid to the impact of the shutdown cycle of the Jiaxiaowo Mine on market expectations[6]. - **Silicon - related Products**: The supply of industrial silicon has recovered, and the supply and demand of polysilicon are relatively balanced in the short term. The price of polysilicon has been pushed up by downstream replenishment inquiries, and the market has support at the bottom[6]. - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors such as the US sanctions on India for importing Russian oil and China's reduction in Saudi crude oil purchases have affected the market. The market's expectation of oil prices has further cooled, and the oil price is likely to be weak in the short term under the background of increasing supply[9]. - **Methanol**: The supply pressure in coastal areas is increasing, with the expected increase in imports in August and September. If the coastal methanol can flow inland, the supply pressure will be relieved, and the futures price is expected not to fall below 2300 yuan/ton. The price will rise again as the import volume decreases in the fourth quarter[9]. - **Polyolefin**: The suspension of Sino - US tariffs may be extended, which is beneficial to the market sentiment. However, the supply is expected to be loose with the restart of some maintenance devices and the launch of new devices, which limits the significant rise of prices[9]. 3.2.4 Steel and Minerals - **Rebar**: The spot price of rebar is strong, but the marginal pressure has emerged. The anti - involution long - term logic still holds. The support of coking coal prices and the high enthusiasm of blast - furnace production support the steel - making cost. The rebar futures price is expected to run in the range of [3150, 3300]. It is recommended to hold the short - position of out - of - the - money put options on RB2510P3000 and consider the arbitrage opportunity of going long on 01 iron ore/coking coal and shorting 01 rebar[5][6][7]. - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: The spot price of hot - rolled coils is strong, but the marginal pressure has emerged. The anti - involution long - term logic still holds. After the end of the phased environmental protection restrictions, the steel mills will actively resume production, which is conducive to supporting the price of furnace materials and the steel - making cost. The hot - rolled coil futures price is expected to run in the range of [3350, 3500]. It is recommended to wait for the further accumulation of fundamental contradictions or the clarification of policy, and consider the arbitrage opportunity of going long on 01 iron ore/coking coal and shorting 01 hot - rolled coils[5][6][7]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand structure of imported iron ore has weakened marginally, but the current steel mills' profits are good. Once the phased environmental protection restrictions end, the steel mills will increase production, which will support the demand for iron ore. The price of the 01 - contract of iron ore is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term. It is recommended to participate in the arbitrage opportunity of going long on iron ore and shorting rebar in the 01 - contract[7]. 3.2.5 Coke and Coking Coal - **Coking Coal**: The self - inspection of coal mine production by the Energy Bureau will last until August 15, and there is an expectation of production suspension for over - producing mines. The supply of raw coal is expected to be tightened, which supports the coal price. However, the enthusiasm for pithead auction quotes has weakened marginally, and there is a risk of short - term over - rise in the expectation - driven market[7]. - **Coke**: The spot price of coke has increased for the sixth time, and the coking profit has continued to repair. However, most coking enterprises are still at the break - even point, and the enthusiasm for further increasing production is limited. The in - furnace demand for coke still has support, but there is an expectation of production restrictions in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region in the middle and late of this month, and the spot market may stabilize[7]. 3.2.6 Soda Ash and Float Glass - **Soda Ash**: The fundamental driving force is downward, with the daily production of soda ash rising to 108,500 tons, and the demand being weaker than the supply. The alkali plant's inventory has continued to accumulate. However, the anti - involution long - term logic still holds, and the short - term price decline has slowed down. It is recommended to exit the short - position of the 09 - contract opportunistically[7]. - **Float Glass**: The rigid demand for glass has not improved significantly, and the speculative demand is weak. The production - sales ratio of float glass in four major regions has been below 100% since August, and the glass factory is expected to continue to accumulate inventory. However, the anti - involution long - term logic still holds, and there is an expectation of policy support. It is recommended to exit the short - position of the 9 - contract opportunistically and be relatively optimistic about the 01 - contract[7]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The new cotton in the main producing areas is growing well, and the probability of a bumper harvest has increased. However, the downstream replenishment is cautious, and the market expectation is pessimistic. Whether the开机率 can return to a high level in the peak season from September to October remains to be seen. The cotton price is in a weak trend[9]. - **Rubber**: The inventory in Qingdao bonded areas and general trade has decreased rapidly, the tire enterprises' production is active, and the terminal automobile market consumption is stimulated by policies. The demand expectation is turning positive. Although the main producing countries are in the traditional production - increasing season, the raw material output rate is lower than expected, and the natural rubber fundamentals are continuously improving. The rubber price is expected to maintain a volatile rebound pattern this week[9].
被印度拒绝后,特朗普转身找中国:希望帮帮美农,增加三倍进口量
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-12 06:57
然而,这种"交易"背后有一个重要前提,那就是美国必须放弃当前的关税政策。一方面对中国实施高额关税,另一方面又希望中国加大对美农产品的进口, 这显然是不现实的。中国的立场非常明确,只有当中美双方都能以理性的态度对待贸易差异时,才能实现互利共赢。在特朗普的第一个任期内,中美曾经交 锋过一次,现阶段中国不太可能再做出让步。特朗普需要意识到,关税政策对美国农业造成的短期痛苦与长期结构性损害是极为严峻的。尽管政府通过补贴 方式缓解了部分压力,但成本上涨、出口萎缩、市场份额流失以及国际反制等问题依然存在,难以根治。 在美国当地时间8月10日,特朗普在自己创立的社交媒体"真相社交"上发布了相关信息,他提到:"中国对大豆的短缺问题表示担忧。我们的农民生产出了最 优质的大豆。"特朗普还呼吁中国迅速将大豆的采购订单增加三倍,他认为这是减少中美贸易逆差的有效方式。为显示他的诚意,特朗普强调美国农民的高 效生产能力,保证能够快速满足订单需求。 这一声明深刻反映了当前美国农民的困境,他们的农产品因关税政策而面临滞销,难以寻找到合适的买家。印 度不愿意对美国开放市场,根本原因在于印度总理莫迪不敢得罪当地农民,因为这可能会使他面临下台的风 ...