作者 | 周智宇 编辑 | 张晓玲 二季度市场会"退一步进两步"，若三季度贸易谈判取得实质性进展，港股有望突破当前区间。摩根大通 首席亚洲及中国股票策略师刘鸣镝在5月21日的"摩根大通全球中国峰会媒体见面会"上，就接下来的市 场走势给出如是判断。 短期来看，4月初贸易摩擦升温导致港股大幅回调，但随后市场逐步消化利空并反弹，当前处于区间震 荡。 此外，她也认为国资委及证监会对兼并重组的政策支持，有望推动材料、工业等板块的供给侧改革，这 一主题类似2016年的供给侧改革，但执行难度更大。对投资者而言，A股的机会在于从"估值博弈"转 向"盈利增长"，关注具备内生扩张或并购潜力的企业，而非单纯依赖流动性驱动的中小盘标的。 刘鸣镝特别强调港股的独特优势。港股对上市公司业绩敏感度高，盈利增长明确的企业易获资金认可， 流动性虽不及A股但估值体系更趋理性；随着中概股回归及内地企业赴港上市，港股成为连接内地与全 球资本的桥梁。南下资金（港股通）交易量占比已达20%-25%，边际定价权显著提升，央行外管对港股 的政策倾斜进一步强化其地位。 此外，港股红利股对应美元资产收益，相比内地国债利率更具吸引力，成为稳健型资金的优选。 从全 ...

当前推行的分级审批制度已形成动态调节机制：中国商务部在2025年5月暂停对28家美企的出口限制，但要求其在90天内补交"技术应用白皮书"。这种弹性 管控正在催生新的产业适应模式——德国博世集团已组建专门的"合规应答团队"，其成员包括材料科学家和国际贸易法律师，专门处理稀土采购中的技术性 问询。 2025年5月，波士顿动力公司研发实验室的工程日志里新增了一条特殊记录：Atlas X人形机器人项目的关键测试因"外部不可抗力"中断。这个价值数十亿美 元的产学研合作项目并未遭遇技术瓶颈，而是被一张来自东半球的出口审批表按下了暂停键——中国海关要求对某批次钕铁硼磁材的最终用途作出详细说 明。 这一事件并非孤立案例。早在2024年第四季度，特斯拉Optimus团队就因同样问题遭遇研发延迟。据彭博社披露，马斯克曾试图通过外交渠道加速审批，但 中方提出的"磁体安装定位图谱""技术迭代路线验证"等专业质询，让这个以颠覆传统著称的科技巨头不得不重新审视其供应链管理流程。这种转变标志着全 球技术供应链正经历从"自由流通"到"知情授权"的范式转换。 追溯产业史可以发现，美国在1986年颁布的《战略资源管理法案》早已确立类似机制。该法 ...

Group 1: Industry Performance - The healthcare ETF rose by 2.02%, while the biotechnology index ETF increased by 1.61% [1][3] - The global airline industry ETF saw a gain of 1.07%, and the consumer discretionary ETF rose by 0.95% [1][3] - The technology sector ETF and banking sector ETF had minimal increases, with gains of up to 0.19% [1][3] Group 2: ETF Specifics - The healthcare ETF closed at $133.09, with a change of +2.63 (+2.02%) and a total market value of $254.69 billion, down 2.88% year-to-date [3] - The biotechnology index ETF closed at $121.16, with a change of +1.92 (+1.61%) and a total market value of $96.20 billion, down 8.28% year-to-date [3] - The global airline ETF closed at $22.74, with a change of +0.24 (+1.07%) and a total market value of $716.31 million, down 10.30% year-to-date [3] Group 3: Sector Trends - The energy sector ETF decreased by 0.15%, while the semiconductor ETF fell by 0.29% [2][3] - The utilities sector ETF increased by 1.47%, closing at $82.18, with a total market value of $119.30 billion, up 9.35% year-to-date [3] - The consumer staples ETF rose by 1.15%, closing at $82.07, with a total market value of $138.88 billion, up 4.95% year-to-date [3]

Group 1 - The event highlighted the significant role of Generation Z in leading transformative changes driven by new technologies [1] - The discussion emphasized that disruptive innovations have historically reshaped society, with the printing press in 1450 being a pivotal moment [2] - The rapid diffusion of innovations has accelerated, with technologies like Pokémon Go achieving widespread adoption in just 19 days [2] Group 2 - 3D printing is expanding beyond small plastic parts to applications in medical prosthetics and construction, with advancements like the first 3D-printed jet engine [3] - Autonomous driving technology is maturing, with commercial trials underway in multiple countries, potentially reshaping transportation and urban design [3] - Renewable energy sources, particularly wind and solar, are becoming mainstream, with significant advancements in nuclear fusion technology expected in the next 20 years [4] Group 3 - Advanced materials such as graphene are being explored for their potential applications in solar energy and desalination, despite high costs hindering widespread adoption [5] - The digital transformation is leading to an unprecedented explosion of information, with global data expected to reach 200 zettabytes by 2025 [6] - The integration of social media into business activities exemplifies the merging of technology and commerce, with platforms like LinkedIn and Zoom playing crucial roles [6][7] Group 4 - Blockchain technology, while currently associated with cryptocurrencies, holds significant potential for various applications beyond financial transactions [7] - The emergence of a "zero marginal cost" business model is changing traditional economic theories, allowing for scalable growth without proportional increases in costs [7] - Generation Z is positioned to be the key practitioners of these transformative trends, witnessing and driving exponential changes in the future [9]

淡水泉投资表示，中国科技企业具有基本面持续成长潜力，以及抵御国际基本面风险的实力，具体来 看：一是企业与材料、高端制造紧密相关的产业，未来两三年有望广泛受益于AI应用、算力链、汽车 智能化等行业的发展，且深度参与到上下游的产品创新和价值创造。二是国产替代、自主可控方向产 业，例如国产算力和设备供应商，主要靠内需驱动，受宏观经济影响比较小，可能会受益。三是继续看 好电力设备领域，未来有望受益于行业需求回暖、企业产能利用率提高，甚至扩产等景气周期向上的机 会。"后续将持续关注企业中期盈利、市场风险偏好等因素，做好投资评估和预案。" （文章来源：证券日报） 本报讯 （记者王宁）近期，国际贸易形势引发全球股票市场动荡，受此影响，A股和港股整体保持宽幅 震荡态势。近日，淡水泉（北京）投资管理有限公司（以下简称"淡水泉投资"）发布最新研报表示，近 期A股市场呈现出两个特征：一是内需与自主可控类资产获得资金青睐，公用事业、农林牧渔等防御性 品种表现好于大盘。二是多数上市公司股价得到修复，反映出市场已在理性区分"情绪影响"与"基本面 实质影响"的差异。 淡水泉投资认为，当前中国完备的工业体系与高效的供应链，不仅具备成本优势， ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government's tariff policy has caused global market turmoil, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks showing signs of a rebound after initial declines, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.7% and the Hang Seng Index dropped by 4.33% [1] - The core factor affecting the market in April was the U.S. tariff policy, particularly aimed at China, with President Trump attempting to achieve multiple goals through comprehensive tariff increases, but facing significant uncertainty due to conflicting objectives [1] - The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions have led to a stalemate, with both sides likely to seek negotiation opportunities in the near future, especially given the upcoming inflation pressures and debt maturities in the U.S. [1] Group 2 - China's robust industrial system and efficient supply chain provide cost advantages and a strong defense against decoupling risks, as highlighted in the recent political bureau meeting emphasizing long-term strategies and economic stability measures [2] - In response to tariff impacts, the market has shown a preference for domestic demand and self-sufficient assets, with defensive sectors like utilities and agriculture performing better than the broader market [2] - Companies with exposure to U.S. or global markets have experienced indiscriminate declines but have largely recovered, indicating a market differentiation between emotional impacts and fundamental realities [2] Group 3 - There are significant investment opportunities in the technology sector, particularly for quality leaders with reasonable valuations that are either irreplaceable in global supply chains or strong in self-sufficiency [3] - Companies closely related to materials and high-end manufacturing are expected to benefit from developments in AI applications and automotive intelligence over the next two to three years, provided that extreme confrontations in U.S.-China tariffs do not occur [3] - The domestic demand-driven companies, especially in the computing power and equipment supply sectors, are likely to be less affected by the economic environment and may even benefit from external tariff pressures [3]

Group 1: Market Overview - The total repurchase amount for the week was HKD 2.24 billion, a significant improvement from HKD 1.44 billion the previous week[12] - The number of companies repurchasing shares this week was 64, a slight decrease from 66 last week[12] - HSBC Holdings (0005.HK) led the repurchase with an amount of HKD 556.15 million[12] Group 2: Top Repurchasing Companies - The top three companies by repurchase amount were HSBC Holdings (0005.HK) at HKD 556.15 million, China Hongqiao (1378.HK) at HKD 521.97 million, and AIA Group (1299.HK) at HKD 398.19 million[12] - China Hongqiao's repurchase accounted for 0.40% of its total share capital, while AIA Group's accounted for 0.06%[11] Group 3: Industry Distribution - The repurchase amounts were primarily concentrated in the financial, industrial, and materials sectors, driven by major repurchases from HSBC, AIA, and China Hongqiao[15] - The information technology sector had the highest number of repurchasing companies, with 14 firms participating[15]

Group 1: Market Overview - The total repurchase amount for the week was HKD 1.44 billion, a decrease from HKD 1.53 billion the previous week[9] - The number of companies repurchasing shares increased to 66 from 62 in the previous week[9] - The top three companies by repurchase amount were AIA (1299.HK) at HKD 575.81 million, China Hongqiao (1378.HK) at HKD 304.73 million, and COSCO Shipping Holdings (1919.HK) at HKD 162.60 million[9] Group 2: Industry Distribution - The repurchase amounts were primarily concentrated in the financial, industrial, and materials sectors, driven by significant repurchases from AIA, China Hongqiao, and COSCO Shipping[12] - The information technology and healthcare sectors had the highest number of companies initiating repurchases, with 13 companies each[12] - The industrial sector followed with 10 companies, while the consumer discretionary sector had 9 companies participating in repurchases[12] Group 3: Company-Specific Data - AIA (1299.HK) accounted for 0.10% of its total share capital with a repurchase of 1,031.02 thousand shares[8] - China Hongqiao (1378.HK) represented 0.23% of its total share capital with a repurchase of 2,197.05 thousand shares[8] - The repurchase by Green Bamboo Bio-B (2480.HK) was notable at 0.87% of its total share capital, with 175.92 thousand shares repurchased[8] Group 4: Significance of Share Buybacks - Share buybacks are defined as companies using liquid cash to repurchase a certain amount of their outstanding shares from the secondary market[22] - Large-scale buyback trends often occur during bear markets, signaling that companies believe their stock prices are undervalued[22] - Historical data indicates that the Hong Kong market has experienced five waves of buyback trends since 2008, all occurring during bear markets followed by subsequent rallies[22]

Company Updates - Caocao Travel has submitted an IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1] - Luckin Coffee has appointed Li Hui as the new chairman, replacing Guo Jinyi, who will continue as CEO [6] - Douyu has been enforced to pay approximately 3.5 million RMB due to a court ruling [5] - The first quarter financial results of major companies show varied performance, with Gree Electric achieving a net profit of 32.185 billion RMB, a 10.91% increase year-on-year, despite a 7.26% decline in revenue [3] Financial Performance - Adidas reported a net profit of 428 million euros in Q1, exceeding market expectations of 376.4 million euros [14] - China Petroleum's Q1 net profit was 46.81 billion RMB, a 2.3% increase year-on-year, with revenue down 7.3% [15] - China Life's Q1 net profit reached 28.802 billion RMB, up 39.5% year-on-year, despite an 8.9% decline in revenue [16] - Guizhou Moutai reported a Q1 revenue of 50.601 billion RMB, a 10.54% increase year-on-year [17] Market Trends - The Long Triangle Railway expects a 6% increase in passenger volume during the May Day holiday, with an estimated 2.88 million passengers over the holiday period [7] - The cultural industry in China saw a 6.2% year-on-year increase in revenue in Q1 2025, with new business models growing by 12.5% [8] - The U.S. stock market saw all three major indices rise, with notable performances from Tesla and Netflix [9] Investment and Financing - Anhui Wanzhi Construction Engineering Co., Ltd. completed a 26 million RMB Pre-A round financing to advance smart construction technology [28] - "Yinshi Robot" completed nearly 100 million RMB in B3 round financing to enhance technology development and market expansion [29] - "Zhiyuan Gold Chain" secured angel round financing to develop distributed computing resources using blockchain technology [30]

Group 1: Market Overview - The total repurchase amount for the week was HKD 1.53 billion, down from HKD 1.99 billion the previous week[10] - The number of companies engaging in repurchases decreased to 62 from 78 in the previous week[10] - AIA Group (1299.HK) led the repurchase with an amount of HKD 913.65 million[10] Group 2: Industry Insights - The financial sector dominated repurchase amounts, primarily driven by AIA Group and HSBC Holdings[13] - The technology sector had the highest number of companies engaging in repurchases, totaling 12[13] - The industrial sector followed with 11 companies participating in repurchases[13] Group 3: Company-Specific Data - AIA Group (1299.HK) accounted for 0.15% of its total share capital with a repurchase of 1,648.10 million shares[9] - HSBC Holdings (0005.HK) repurchased 179.52 million shares, representing 0.01% of its total share capital[9] - China Hongqiao (1378.HK) repurchased 1,095.60 million shares, which is 0.12% of its total share capital[9] Group 4: Market Trends - Large-scale repurchase trends often occur during bear markets, indicating companies believe their stock prices are undervalued[23] - Historical data shows that repurchase waves in the Hong Kong market since 2008 have been followed by subsequent price increases[23]