Core Insights - The article discusses a recent initiative by the Central South Market Department to enhance the efficiency of cigarette retail operations through a "Utilization Improvement Special Action" aimed at optimizing supply structure and improving retail profitability [1][2] Group 1: Precision Guidance - Customer managers are conducting "one-on-one" operational diagnostics based on historical sales data and local consumption characteristics to address issues like "hesitant ordering" and "lack of knowledge in ordering" [1] - A "Cigarette Scientific Ordering Guide" has been developed to help customers understand methods for "demand-based ordering and dynamic adjustments," effectively reducing instances of unsold stock and stockouts [1] Group 2: Precision Analysis - Utilizing a big data platform, customer managers monitor key indicators such as ordering behavior, sales rates, and inventory turnover to identify low-utilization customer groups [1] - Tailored brand cultivation strategies are being implemented based on the differing needs of various business districts and customer types, such as promoting high-end cigarette brands in specific commercial areas and recommending mid-range and pocket cigarettes in community convenience stores [1] Group 3: Precision Service - A "regular follow-up + dynamic support" mechanism has been established to reinforce the effectiveness of the utilization improvement efforts, including daily communications with customers experiencing significant utilization fluctuations [2] - Monthly "benchmark customer experience sharing sessions" are held to promote successful ordering models, and digital tools like WeChat and store management systems are used to provide real-time supply information and market trends [2] - Since the launch of the initiative, the cigarette utilization rate in the Central South Market Department's jurisdiction has increased by 8% year-on-year, with improved inventory turnover efficiency and steady profit growth [2]

Core Insights - The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) has launched the ICBC CSI All-Share Free Cash Flow ETF (code: 159236) on May 16, 2025, on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, which closely tracks the CSI Free Cash Flow Index [1] - The ETF focuses on high free cash flow rate companies with stable operating cash flow over five years, targeting cyclical sectors like coal and oil, as well as consumer and growth sectors such as home appliances and pharmaceuticals, characterized by high profitability, low valuation, and high dividends [1] - As of May 12, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index include Midea Group, China Shenhua, CNOOC, Wuliangye, and COSCO Shipping, accounting for a total of 65.55% of the index [1] Index Composition - The top ten stocks in the CSI Free Cash Flow Index are as follows: - Midea Group: 10.61% - China Shenhua: 10.52% - CNOOC: 9.89% - Wuliangye: 9.51% - COSCO Shipping: 7.39% - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry: 6.28% - China Coal Energy: 3.77% - Aluminum Corporation of China: 3.63% - China Power: 2.13% - Yuntianhua: 1.82% [2] Comparison with Dividend Index - The CSI Free Cash Flow Index differs from the Dividend Index in stock selection criteria, industry distribution, rebalancing frequency, and stock concentration [4] - The Free Cash Flow Index excludes financial and real estate sectors, focusing more on financial quality and being more sensitive to fundamental changes, while the Dividend Index has a higher distribution in banking and real estate, which has negatively impacted its performance since 2015 [4] - The Free Cash Flow Index uses free cash flow for weighting rather than free cash flow rate, resulting in higher stock concentration with the top ten stocks accounting for over 65% of the index [4]

Core Viewpoint - The city of Jingxi in Guangxi has been facing severe drought conditions since November 2024, with rainfall decreasing by 70-80%, leading to significant challenges in tobacco cultivation [1] Group 1: Emergency Response - The Jingxi Tobacco Monopoly Bureau initiated a level I emergency response to the drought, establishing a command center led by key officials to address the situation promptly [2] - The local government has actively engaged in on-site investigations and secured special drought relief funding [2] - A total of 12 teams were formed to conduct thorough assessments of over 50,000 acres of tobacco fields to gather accurate drought data [2] Group 2: Interdepartmental Coordination - The Jingxi Tobacco sector has coordinated with various departments, including water resources and agriculture, to form a drought relief alliance [3] - Five medium-sized reservoirs have been managed for staggered water supply, and fire trucks have delivered water to remote tobacco fields on 126 occasions [3] Group 3: Community Support - A mutual aid mechanism among tobacco farmers has been established, facilitating equipment sharing and technical assistance [5] - Stories of community support have emerged, such as farmers responding to each other's urgent needs for irrigation equipment [5] Group 4: Technological Empowerment - The introduction of "drip irrigation + micro-spray" systems has improved water-saving efficiency by over 35% [6] - The establishment of a long-term drought management mechanism has been emphasized, transitioning from emergency response to sustainable management [6] - Continuous monitoring of weather changes and preparedness for future droughts are prioritized to safeguard farmers' harvests [6]

Core Viewpoint - The tobacco industry in Ji'an, Jiangxi Province, is transitioning from traditional coal-based drying methods to a green biomass energy approach, significantly improving both ecological and economic outcomes for local farmers [1][2][3] Group 1: Industry Challenges - Traditional coal-fired drying methods have high energy consumption, pollution, and inefficiency, with over 60% of high-quality tobacco leaves produced [2] - Thousands of coal-fired drying houses consume over tens of thousands of tons of coal annually, leading to significant emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides [2] Group 2: Innovative Solutions - In 2019, Ji'an Tobacco prioritized "green drying" and initiated a pilot project using biomass pellet fuel made from agricultural waste, which has a 15% higher calorific value than coal and nearly zero sulfur content [2] - The first two pilot drying houses showed a significant reduction in costs and a 90% decrease in pollutant emissions, prompting farmers to adopt the new technology [2] Group 3: Technological Advancements - The use of biomass fuel allows for stable combustion and precise temperature control within ±1°C, enhancing the quality of tobacco leaves [2] - Collaboration with research institutions has led to breakthroughs in drying technology, with plans for 100% conversion of drying houses to the new system by 2024 [2] Group 4: Ecological and Economic Benefits - The shift to green drying is expected to replace approximately 15,000 tons of coal annually, reducing carbon dioxide emissions by about 40,000 tons, equivalent to planting 2 million trees [3] - By 2024, the proportion of high-quality tobacco is projected to reach over 75%, with average farmer income exceeding 5,000 yuan per mu, marking a significant increase from traditional methods [3] - The improved quality of tobacco leaves has made them highly sought after in high-end markets, contributing to an annual output value close to 200 million yuan [3]

Group 1: Financial Performance and Strategies - The company has experienced a decline in revenue and net profit for three consecutive years and is implementing measures to reverse this trend [1] - Plans to enhance core competitiveness and establish differentiated competitive barriers in three key industries: premium paper packaging, new materials, and new tobacco [1] - The company aims to create a clear second and third growth curve through strategic positioning in the global market [1] Group 2: Market Expansion and Opportunities - The company is cautiously expanding its new tobacco business into potential markets, including Europe and the Americas, based on local market characteristics and consumer preferences [2] - Plans to enhance competitiveness in the high-end packaging market by improving R&D capabilities and optimizing production processes [3] Group 3: Challenges and Adjustments - The decline in the premium paper packaging business is attributed to changing market demands and reduced customer orders, prompting a strategic adjustment to enhance product development and market outreach [4] - The company is considering restructuring or integrating loss-making subsidiaries to improve overall profitability and market competitiveness [6] Group 4: Future Development Plans - The company is focused on building a diversified development framework in the new tobacco sector, emphasizing customized services and standardized production management [5] - Plans to advance the electronic materials business by overcoming technical barriers and enhancing product performance for scale production [5]

三、多部门联动形成监管合力 节假日前江汉烟草联合区市场监管局、区公安分局、区城管开展专项整治行动，突击检查夜市摊点、礼 品回收店等特殊场所12处，查扣非法流通卷烟17.6条，集中整治了江汉路步行街、解放公园等位置无证 经营、销售假私烟的行为，极大地打击了违法烟贩的嚣张气焰，保障了消费者权益，维护了市场秩序。 江汉烟草针对节日期间人流量大、卷烟消费需求旺盛的特点，启动假日市场监管应急预案，实行"领导 带班+双岗值守"制度，确保专卖稽查部门24小时响应。通过APCD工作法精准筛查重点监管区域，对旅 游景区、商业综合体、交通枢纽等8处重点场所实施每日2次动态巡查，利用"双随机一公开"系统抽查许 可证使用情况，严防真烟异常流动。 二、多渠道响应守护消费权益 江汉烟草确保节假日期间畅通"12313"烟草监管热线与"楚天烟草"微信公众号双轨投诉渠道，同时建立 了30分钟响应机制。如5月2日接群众举报称自己买到假冒卷烟，执法人员15分钟内抵达现场，现场为消 费者进行卷烟真伪鉴定，及时化解了矛盾。节假日期间共提供真伪鉴别服务5次，现场化解消费纠纷2 起。 下一步，江汉烟草专卖执法队伍将继续延续"监管不打烊、服务不断档"的工作 ...

Market Overview - On May 13, Hong Kong's three major indices collectively declined, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 1.87%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down by 2.02%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index decreasing by 3.26% [1] Sector Performance - The Apple-related stocks experienced significant declines, including: - Highway Electronics (01415.HK) down 7.69% - Sunny Optical Technology (02382.HK) down 7.64% - BYD Electronics (00285.HK) down 7.11% - AAC Technologies (02018.HK) down 3.07% - Q Tech (01478.HK) down 3.41% [1] - The automotive supply chain, including lithium batteries and Tesla-related stocks, also saw declines: - Jinli Permanent Magnet (06680.HK) down 4.88% - Xpeng Motors-W (09868.HK) down 5.35% - NIO-SW (09866.HK) down 5.17% - Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK) down 3.85% - Li Auto-W (02015.HK) down 3.05% [1] - Semiconductor stocks faced notable declines: - Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347.HK) down 4.24% - SMIC (00981.HK) down 4.05% - Beike Micro (02149.HK) down 2.86% - Shanghai Fudan (01385.HK) also declined [1] Technology Sector - Technology-related stocks, including short video concepts, cloud office, and cloud computing, mostly weakened: - Weimob Group (02013.HK) down 5.52% - Kuaishou-W (01024.HK) down 4.62% - Bilibili-W (09626.HK) down 3.14% - Alibaba-W (09988.HK) down 3.89% - NetEase-S (09999.HK) down 2.96% - Kingsoft Cloud (03896.HK) down 5.91% [2] - Other consumer sectors, including holiday concepts, sports goods, home appliances, and beer, also saw declines: - Meituan-W (03690.HK) down 4.91% - China Resources Beer (00291.HK) down 4.63% - Hisense Home Appliances (00921.HK) down 2.33% [2] Biopharmaceutical Sector - The biopharmaceutical and medical aesthetics sectors showed resilience, with notable gains: - Kintor Pharmaceutical-B (02171.HK) up 14.94% - Peijia Medical-B (09996.HK) up 9.2% - Yiming Oncology-B (01541.HK) up 7.77% - Genscript Biotech (02367.HK) up 5.64% [2] Gold Sector - The gold sector saw gains in the afternoon, with significant increases: - Tongguan Gold (00340.HK) up 15.79% - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693.HK) up 5.19% - Lingbao Gold (03330.HK) up 5.37% - Shandong Gold (01787.HK) up 4.75% - China Gold International (02099.HK) up 4.26% - Zhaojin Mining (01818.HK) up 3.45% [3] - The international gold price rebounded, influenced by uncertainties in U.S. macroeconomic policies and inflation concerns, which may support gold prices throughout the year [3]

基本结论 全球情况概览：根据欧睿统计，2024 年全球新型烟草产品市场规模达 869.6 亿美元，同比增长 13.1%，其中无烟烟 草/雾化电子烟/加热烟草/无烟口服尼古丁产品全球市场规模分别为 138.2/230.4/388.5/112.5 亿美元，分别同比- 0.1%/+8.9%/+12.7%/+51.0%，口服尼古丁产品加速增长，而雾化电子烟与加热烟草产品也均延续增长态势。根据欧 睿预测，2025 年全球新型烟草市场仍将维持稳健增长，2025 年无烟烟草/雾化电子烟/加热烟草/无烟口服尼古丁产 品全球市场规模预计分别同比+0.6%/+0.9%/+12.9%/+36.1%至 139.1/232.4/438.8 /153.0 亿美元。 口含烟：全球尼古丁袋市场保持高扩容速度，烟草巨头优势明显。根据欧睿统计，2024 年全球尼古丁袋市场规模为 212 亿袋，同比增长 37%，2019-2024 年 CAGR 为 65%。2025 年初美国 FDA 首次批准尼古丁袋风味型产品，后续该品 类美国市场成长值得期待，欧洲多数国家监管仍待完善，静待后续政策信号。从格局上看，烟草巨头优势明显， PMI/BAT/Altri ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】 关税战下的美国库存"倒计时"——海外周 报第 89 期 ❖ 核心观点：美国库存可能形成关税到进口成本到终端消费价格传导的"缓冲 带"，那么美国库存能维持缓冲多久？ 1、从实际库销比来看，目前美国库存可能尚未反映其近期进口高增，仅以截 至 2 月库存水平来看，美国制造和贸易环节整体实际库销比约为 1.5 个月，若 考虑极端假设，制造、批发、零售商的库存均供给终端零售销售，则库存可覆 盖约 4.2 个月销售。 分行业来看，相对最易先受关税冲击（实际库销比相对偏低）的可能是家电等 电气设备类产品，相对不易先受关税冲击（实际库销比相对偏高）的可能是机 械设备，纺织原料及其制品等。 2、从 ISM 制造业 PMI 调查来看，截至 4 月，美国 ISM 制造业 PMI 自有库存 指数冲高回落，或反映企业在关税落地前"抢囤货"逐步降温。与此同时，客 户库存指数仍处于偏低区间，或指向整体制造业库存水平可持续时间堪忧。 分行业来看，4 月仍在增加进口量的行业、库存却均有所下滑，主要包括 1） 纺织品，2）金属加工制品，3）计算机及电子产品，4）运输设备。可能反映 库存水平相对 ...

受重要会谈影响，A股今日放量飘红，大消费表现平平。规模最大的消费ETF（159928）震荡走平，成交额已超3亿元，交投高度活跃。近60日以来，资 金持续流入消费，净流入总额超15亿元！ 消费ETF（159928）热门成分股中，五粮液、伊利股份、山西汾酒涨超1%，贵州茅台、珀莱雅微涨。下跌方面，东鹏饮料跌超4%，牧原股份、泸州老 窖、北大荒微跌。 【哪些白酒企业正加速分红？】 中邮证券表示，白酒主动降速减压，提高分红率。2025年高端酒整体营收利润符合预期，从年度规划来看茅台25年营收目标增长9%左右；五粮液25年 营业总收入目标与宏观经济指标保持一致，预计在5%左右；泸州老窖25年经营目标为全年营业收入稳中求进。从分红率的角度来看，2024年白酒公司 普遍提高分红率，进一步加强对投资者的回报。 浙商证券认为，2025年一季度酒企业绩企稳，顺利度过压力测试，头部酒企韧性强。白酒板块当前仍处低位，或为此轮调整周期底部区间，当前位置持 续推荐，优选品牌势能较强、库存更早出清、目标增速合理的酒企。 【消费ETF（159928）成分股一季报大公开！】 消息面上，重要会谈在瑞士日内瓦举行，有关人士称此次高层会谈坦诚、深入 ...