银河策略 · 点评报告 中央城市工作会议利好 A 股市场哪些板块? -2025 年中央城市工作会议内容解读 核心观点: 2025 年 07 月 15 日 分析师 杨超 ☎：010-8092-7696 極: yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码: S0130522030004 周美丽 网: zhoumeili_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525070002 王雪莹 网: wangxueying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S01305250600003 相关研究 2025-06-27, 2025 年大类资产中期投资展望:驭变 谋势 2025-06-22, 2025 年港股中期投资展望: 时移世易, 见机而作 2025-06-21, 2025 年 A 股中期投资展望: 筑基行稳, 重塑鼎新 2025-06-10,稳定币概念股投资展望 2025-05-29，上市公司并购重组迎来哪些新变化? 2025-05-07,关键时间节点的发布会:一揽子金融政 策稳市场稳预期 2025-04-25,4月中央政治局会议解读: ...

Group 1: Small-cap Fund Investment Opportunities - The long-term returns of small-cap stocks primarily stem from valuation improvements rather than dividends or buybacks, indicating a persistent pricing error in the market that provides alpha opportunities [8] - Small-cap stocks exhibit a longer right tail in excess return distribution compared to large-cap stocks, suggesting higher potential for extreme positive returns during bullish market cycles [8] - In a credit expansion phase, small-cap stocks tend to perform better due to a favorable monetary environment and recovering credit conditions [8] Group 2: Economic Insights - The second quarter GDP growth rate was reported at 5.2%, indicating resilience in the economy, particularly in industrial output, despite a decline in fixed asset investment growth [13] - Economic data for June showed a mixed trend, with external demand and production rebounding while consumption and investment weakened [9] - The overall economic outlook suggests a potential GDP growth rate of around 5% for the year, with ongoing challenges in domestic demand and export pressures [9] Group 3: Industry Performance - The coal industry is experiencing a decline in imports while thermal power generation continues to grow, leading to price increases as demand rises [22] - The antimony market is showing signs of recovery with potential upward price adjustments due to easing export policies and a focus on quality resource companies [23][24] - The textile and apparel sector, particularly companies like Anta Sports and 361 Degrees, is demonstrating strong sales growth, supported by effective multi-brand strategies [28][38]

Macro Strategy - The "urban renewal" initiative is expected to achieve a total investment of at least 4.48 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, averaging nearly 900 billion yuan annually. The main sources of potential demand will come from the renovation of urban villages, old residential areas, and urban infrastructure upgrades [1][18] - The renovation of old residential areas and urban infrastructure is projected to contribute at least 2.35 trillion yuan in new investment during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, supported by over 470 billion yuan in central budget investments and special bonds [1][18] - The urban village renovation is estimated to contribute 2.13 trillion yuan in new investment during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, assuming a "half-demolition, half-renovation" approach for the remaining self-built houses [1][18] Economic Data - The actual GDP growth rate for Q2 was 5.2%, with a cumulative growth of 5.3% for the first half of the year, indicating a strong performance compared to the previous year. However, the nominal GDP growth rate was lower at 3.9% [2][20] - Consumer spending showed a year-on-year increase of 5.0% in the first half, driven by the "old-for-new" policy, while real estate sales showed resilience compared to the previous year [2][20] - Industrial production in June saw a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, supported by strong external demand, particularly in the equipment manufacturing sector [2][21] Company Analysis - Zhongkuang Resources (002738) has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027 due to pressure from falling lithium prices and temporary losses in copper smelting, projecting net profits of 4.0/9.6/19.3 billion yuan [10] - Li Ning (02331.HK) anticipates challenges in sales due to deepening discounts and increased expenses, with revised net profit forecasts of 23.1/26.0/29.3 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [10] - 361 Degrees (01361.HK) is expanding its superstore network and maintaining industry-leading growth, with net profit forecasts of 13.0/14.6/16.2 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [11] - Zhongrong Electric (301031) expects continued high growth in its electric vehicle-related products, projecting net profits of 3.4/4.8/6.3 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [12] - Huanxin Cement (600801) reported a significant increase in Q2 profits, driven by improvements in domestic cement profitability and overseas operations, with revised net profit forecasts of 28.8/32.2/35.6 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [15]

Meeting Information - The second extraordinary general meeting of shareholders for 2025 will be held on August 5, 2025, at 14:30 [1] - The meeting will take place at 45th Floor, Building E-06, Suning Ruicheng Huigu, 270 Jiqingmen Street, Gulou District, Nanjing [1] - Voting will be conducted through both on-site and online methods using the Shanghai Stock Exchange's network voting system [1][2] Voting Procedures - Online voting will be available from 9:15 to 15:00 on the day of the meeting, with specific trading hours for the voting platform [2] - Shareholders can vote through designated trading terminals or the internet voting platform [3] - Shareholders with multiple accounts can aggregate their voting rights across all accounts [4] Agenda Items - The meeting will discuss several proposals related to the issuance of A-shares to specific targets for the year 2025, including feasibility analyses and related transactions [2][3] - Proposals include the authorization for the board to handle matters related to the issuance of A-shares and the formulation of a shareholder return plan for 2025-2027 [3][6] Attendance and Registration - Shareholders registered by the close of trading on July 29, 2025, are eligible to attend the meeting [4] - Registration procedures for both corporate and individual shareholders are outlined, requiring identification and proof of shareholding [4][5] Contact Information - The company’s board office contact for meeting inquiries is Jiang Kun, with provided phone and fax numbers [5]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - As of July 15, 2025, a total of 1,489 listed companies in A-shares have disclosed their half-year performance forecasts, with 645 companies expecting positive results, indicating a pre-announcement ratio of 43.32% [1] Group 1: Performance Highlights - Among the companies with positive performance forecasts, 33 companies expect a net profit increase of over 1,000% [5][10] - The company with the highest expected net profit increase is Southern Precision, forecasting a net profit of 200 million to 250 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 28,647% to 35,784% [6][7] - Huayin Power ranks second with an expected net profit of 180 million to 220 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3,600% to 4,423% due to increased power generation and reduced fuel costs [8] Group 2: Industry Performance - Notable performance is observed in the basic chemical, machinery, electronics, and pharmaceutical industries, with many companies reporting significant growth [3][10] - In the basic chemical sector, companies like Xianda Co. expect a net profit of 130 million to 150 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2,443.43% to 2,834.73% [11] - The electronics industry is also thriving, with Industrial Fulian projecting a net profit of 11.958 billion to 12.158 billion yuan, a growth of 36.84% to 39.12% driven by AI-related business [11] Group 3: Declining Performance - Among the companies that have disclosed performance forecasts, 613 companies reported a decline in performance, with 42 companies expecting a net profit decrease of over 1,000% [14] - ST Nanzhi is expected to report a net loss of 800 million to 1.1 billion yuan, a decline of 18,396.17% to 25,257.23% compared to the previous year [15][16] - Companies like Seli Medical, which saw a significant stock price increase earlier, are now forecasting a net loss of 55 million to 66 million yuan, a decline of 1,052% to 1,283% [17][18]

Group 1: Central Urban Work Conference Insights - The conference marked a shift in urbanization from rapid growth to stable development, emphasizing quality over quantity in urban expansion[2] - Seven key tasks were outlined, focusing on optimizing urban systems, fostering innovation, enhancing livability, promoting green cities, ensuring safety, cultivating cultural values, and developing smart cities[2][6] Group 2: Impact on A-Share Market - The shift towards stock quality improvement and urban renewal is expected to boost investment in municipal infrastructure, green technology, and smart city initiatives, positively impacting related A-share sectors[17] - From January to July 14, 2025, the real estate sector fell by 2.72%, while the environmental sector rose by 11.54%, indicating a divergence in sector performance[22] - Current price-to-book (PB) ratios for urban renewal-related industries are at historically low levels, suggesting high long-term investment value[22] Group 3: Real Estate Sector Analysis - In the first half of 2025, real estate development investment dropped by 11.2%, with new housing starts down by 20%[27][40] - The market remains under pressure, with a significant decline in both sales area and sales value, reflecting ongoing weak demand[27][35] - The conference's directives aim to reshape the real estate sector towards a model focused on quality and sustainability, potentially benefiting firms with strong operational capabilities[40]

Group 1 - The company expects significant growth in its performance, with a projected net profit of 0.63-0.78 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 62%-100% [3] - The growth is primarily driven by the successful launch and expansion of its own brands, Zhanjia and Feicui, which are expected to continue gaining market traction [4] - Zhanjia's strategic product, the scented laundry detergent, is anticipated to enhance brand recognition and drive further sales growth in the laundry segment [4] Group 2 - The brand management business is experiencing healthy growth, leveraging operational efficiencies and introducing new brand partnerships to stimulate growth [4] - The company is focusing on optimizing internal management through talent development, technology application, and cross-department collaboration, leading to improved operational efficiency [4] - The acquisition of Yufeng Environmental is expected to enhance the company's operational capabilities and expand its market presence in waste incineration [9] Group 3 - The company reported a projected net profit of 9.67 billion yuan for H1 2025, marking a 9% increase year-on-year, with a more substantial increase of approximately 28% when excluding one-time gains from the previous year [9] - The company has successfully completed the acquisition of Yufeng Environmental, which is expected to create synergies in operations and enhance its competitive advantage in the waste management sector [9][10] - The company is actively expanding its heating business, having signed agreements for four new projects in H1 2025, contributing to its growth strategy [10]

Core Viewpoint - Jinan Hengyu Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd. announced a correction to its 2024 annual report, stating that the corrections will not impact the company's financial status or operating results for the year [1][6]. Correction Details - The correction pertains to data entry errors found in the "Management Discussion and Analysis" section, specifically in the "Revenue and Cost Analysis" subsection [1]. - The corrected figures include a total cost of 90,093,027.47 yuan for the current period, which represents a 20.43% increase compared to the previous year's total cost of 74,811,359.24 yuan [5]. Cost Structure Analysis - Direct materials accounted for 72.27% of total costs in the current period, down from 80.97% in the previous year [6]. - Direct labor constituted 3.99% of total costs, an increase from 2.77% year-on-year [6]. - Manufacturing expenses represented 21.56% of total costs, compared to 15.29% in the previous year [6]. Product Cost Breakdown - For the waste tire pyrolysis production line, total costs were 46,611,417.59 yuan, which is a 5.17% increase from 44,318,135.37 yuan in the previous year [5]. - The cost of direct materials for the waste tire pyrolysis line decreased by 14.14% year-on-year [5]. - The total cost for the waste plastic pyrolysis line was 9,443,301.74 yuan, reflecting a 47.21% decrease from the previous year's 17,888,683.79 yuan [5]. Other Notes - The company emphasized that aside from the corrections, all other contents of the 2024 annual report remain unchanged and will not affect the total equity of the owners or the company's profitability [6]. - The updated report is available on the Shanghai Stock Exchange website, and the company expressed apologies for any inconvenience caused to investors [6].

Group 1: Strategic Overview - Dongguan Qiangsheng Group is focusing on multiple markets including liquor, health and beauty, finance and taxation, music IP, and agricultural environmental protection, aiming to create a comprehensive future layout [2][4][6] - The core of this diversified strategy is resource integration, striving for resource circulation and internal financial flow to inject strong momentum for sustainable development [2] Group 2: Liquor Market - The liquor market, particularly the sauce-flavored liquor segment, is experiencing a surge in popularity due to its cultural significance and large consumer base [2] - Qiangsheng Group plans to leverage its resources to integrate quality brewing enterprises, ensuring quality control while innovating marketing strategies to expand the consumer market [2] Group 3: Health and Beauty Market - The health and beauty market is witnessing explosive growth driven by rising living standards and increasing consumer demand for health and beauty services [4] - Qiangsheng Group aims to create a one-stop service platform by integrating resources in medical beauty and health maintenance, utilizing its financial advantages to introduce advanced equipment and professionals [4] Group 4: Finance and Taxation Market - The finance and taxation market is crucial for business operations, and Qiangsheng Group is providing precise financial services to various enterprises [4] - By integrating industry resources and building a comprehensive service system, the group aims to optimize financial structures and facilitate efficient capital turnover within its ecosystem [4] Group 5: Music IP Market - The music IP market is vibrant and creative, and Qiangsheng Group can integrate resources in music creation, copyright operation, and artist management to establish a full industry chain model [4] - The group plans to invest in talented music teams and monetize through diverse channels such as performances, advertisements, and film scoring [4] Group 6: Agricultural Environmental Protection Market - The agricultural environmental protection market holds significant potential, and Qiangsheng Group can integrate resources in agricultural production, processing, and ecological protection [6] - The group aims to develop sustainable agricultural models by utilizing advanced technologies to enhance production efficiency and reduce environmental pollution [6] Group 7: Interconnected Market Strategy - Qiangsheng Group will leverage its resource integration capabilities to create tight connections between various market segments [6] - For example, financial services can support other business segments, while customer resources from the health and beauty sector can be linked with events in the music IP and liquor markets [6]

Core Viewpoint - Jin Yuan Co., Ltd. (000546.SZ) is expected to report a significant loss in the first half of 2025, transitioning from profit to loss primarily due to the absence of one-time investment gains from the previous year [1] Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net loss attributable to shareholders of between 30 million to 50 million yuan, compared to a profit of approximately 173.83 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - The non-recurring net profit is expected to be a loss of 110 million to 150 million yuan, compared to a loss of about 79.37 million yuan in the previous year [1] - Basic earnings per share are projected to be a loss of 0.04 to 0.06 yuan per share, down from a profit of 0.23 yuan per share last year [1] Business Transformation - The company is currently in a transitional phase, focusing on environmental protection and new energy materials as its main business lines [2] - In 2022, Jin Yuan Co. sold its cement business and acquired a 66% stake in Ali Lithium Source, marking a strategic shift towards "environmental protection + new energy materials" [2] - The environmental business, which focuses on resource utilization, accounts for over 95% of the company's operations [2] Growth Drivers - The subsidiary Jiangxi Huiying has seen significant increases in sales and production, contributing to a 105.85% growth in net profit [2] - Despite rising prices for electrolytic copper and gold-containing materials, the overall profitability remains limited due to the market dynamics [2] - The company is advancing its new lithium extraction technology, which is currently in the testing phase at the Qiangcang Salt Lake project, representing a global first [3] Future Outlook - Jin Yuan Co. aims to solidify its environmental business while expanding into the upstream new materials sector of the energy industry [3] - The company is expected to gradually release growth potential in its new materials business as operational experience accumulates [3]