Core Insights - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" is significantly stronger than market expectations, with a baseline tariff of 10% and additional tariffs based on the perceived tariff levels of trading partners, leading to potential increases in average import tariffs in the U.S. by approximately 17 percentage points to around 22% [2][4] - The tariffs are particularly high for countries with significant trade surpluses with the U.S., such as China (34%), Vietnam (46%), and Japan (24%), indicating a strategic aim to reduce trade deficits and promote domestic manufacturing [3][4] - The unexpected introduction of these tariffs may serve as a starting point for new trade negotiations, with a more lenient approach towards Canada and Mexico, suggesting that countries willing to negotiate may avoid the highest tariffs [3] Industry Implications - The new tariff measures are likely to accelerate the risk of "stagflation" in the U.S., with inflationary pressures and economic growth risks expected to be more pronounced than during previous trade disputes [4] - The broader scope and magnitude of the tariffs could lead to retaliatory measures from trade partners, further exacerbating negative economic impacts on the U.S. economy [4] - The U.S. stock market is anticipated to enter a comprehensive downward trend, influenced by the global trade disruptions and the potential for an economic recession [4]

Trade Data Summary - In January-February 2025, China's total goods trade value was 6.54 trillion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%[8] - Exports amounted to 3.88 trillion RMB, growing by 3.4%, while imports fell to 2.66 trillion RMB, down by 7.3%[8] - The trade surplus reached 1,226.06 billion RMB (170.52 billion USD), maintaining a high level despite the decline in trade volume[19] Export and Import Trends - Exports to the EU and the US saw significant declines, while exports to Japan increased slightly[9] - Major export products, except for mobile phones, experienced a downturn, particularly labor-intensive goods and automotive exports[14] - Import growth was weaker overall, with declines in most major imported goods except for soybeans and crude oil[18] Policy and Economic Outlook - The external trade environment is impacted by rising uncertainties, including increased tariffs from the US[4] - Domestic policies are expected to focus on boosting consumption and investment to expand domestic demand and support economic recovery[24] - The report highlights the importance of China's manufacturing position in the global economy, which contributes to the sustained trade surplus[4] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include worsening geopolitical events, changes in international financial conditions, and unexpected shifts in US-China policies[25]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights a dual contraction in both export and import growth rates due to high base effects, with exports growing by 2.3% and imports declining by 8.4% in January-February 2025 compared to the previous year [8][19] - The external environment is described as complex and variable, suggesting that foreign trade growth may experience fluctuations in the future [22] Summary by Sections Export Analysis - In January-February 2025, China's total export value reached 539.94 billion USD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.3%, which is a decrease of 3.6 percentage points from 2024 [8][10] - High base effects from 2024, where exports grew by 7.1%, are identified as the primary reason for the decline in growth rate [10][12] - Traditional export categories such as bags and footwear saw significant declines, with footwear exports down by 18.3% [16] - Exports of mechanical and electrical products accounted for 60% of total exports, growing by 4.2% [16][18] Import Analysis - The total import value for January-February 2025 was 369.43 billion USD, with a year-on-year decline of 8.4%, marking a 9.5 percentage point drop from 2024 [19][21] - The report attributes the decline in import growth to high base effects and ongoing domestic economic structural adjustments, particularly a reduced demand for traditional bulk commodities [19][21] - Specific imports from major trading partners showed varied growth rates, with imports from the US increasing by 2.7% while those from the EU and Japan decreased [19][21] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the external environment will remain complex, with both risks and opportunities for exports in 2025, influenced by political changes in major trading partners [22] - For imports, a gradual recovery is expected due to domestic economic stabilization policies, although challenges remain from the real estate market and global trade barriers [24]

宏观经济研究 | 中国宏观经济点评 证券研究报告 报告日期 2025 年 03 月 07 日 分析师：段超 研究助理：谢智勇 xiezhiyong@xyzq.com.cn 相关研究 【兴证宏观】从投资于物到投资于人 — —2025 年政府工作报告解读-2025.03.05 【兴证宏观】PMI 缘何超预期？基数与 基数之外 ——2 月 PMI 数据点评- 2025.03.01 【兴证宏观】科技与内需的天平 —— 2025 年两会前瞻-2025.02.26 如何解读开年外需形势和内需格局？ ——2025 年 1-2 月进出口数据点评 投资要点： 美元计价下，中国 2025 年 1-2 月出口累计同比 2.3%，低于万得一致预期的 3.3%，前值 10.7%；进口 1-2 月累计同比-8.4%，低于万得一致预期的-2.9%，前值 1.0%；贸易顺差 1705.2 亿美元，较去年同期增长 458.8 亿美元。我们认为： 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1/9 ⚫ 如何评估开年出口表现：外需实际动能不弱。如果从同比读数来看，开年出口表现不及 市场预期。同比读数低受多重因素影响：一是去年同期基数偏高，2024 年开年出口增 ...

美国东部时间3月3日，美国宣布自3月4日对从墨西哥和加拿大进口的商品加征25%的关税，涉及钢铁、 铝制品及部分工业制成品。美国总统特朗普称，对墨西哥和加拿大的关税没有达成共识的空间。此举直接 引发三国贸易关系剧变。加拿大随即启动报复机制，宣布对300亿加元美国商品（含食品、纺织品及家 具）加征25%关税，并计划21天后扩大至1250亿加元商品，覆盖美国对加出口总额的41%（2024年美国 对加出口额3758亿加元）。墨西哥总统辛鲍姆宣布于3月9日公布反制措施，具体细节尚未披露。 那么此次加征关税对中美经济有何影响？根据民生银行的报告，在中国层面，如果不考虑其他变量的变化 或对冲政策，从静态的出口弹性来计算，美国对中国的20%关税，大致拖累中国名义GDP 0.69个百分 点，对实际GDP增长的拖累或在0.49个百分点左右，这可以看作损失的上限，没有考虑对非美国家的出口 转移、汇率贬值对冲等。 对于美国来说，美对加墨施加的25%的关税给美国带来经济的冲击较大。若加墨不反制，关税对美国中长 期实际GDP增速拖累0.2-0.3个百分点，对2025年通胀推升0.4个百分点；若加墨反制，对通胀推升高达 0.7-0.9个百 ...

上周有两大故事。第一个是美国联储公布上月联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议纪要，表达了不急于重 回降息的立场，但同时暗示可能调整量化紧缩政策，暂缓乃至停止缩表。第二个故事是最新调查显示美 国消费者信心出现下滑，对长期通胀的担忧更达到1995年以来的新高。美股周五出现了今年以来最大的 单日下跌，而对政策利率敏感的两年期国债收益率上周从高位下滑10个基点，债市走强。 重要提示：本材料不构成任何形式的要约、承诺或其他法律文件，亦非任何投资、法律或财务等方面的专业建议。过往业绩不预示 未来表现。投资须谨慎。 特朗普入主白宫刚满一个月，这是火力全开、拳打四方的一个月。期间他签署了73份总统行政命令，比 奥巴马两任、特朗普第一任期和拜登执政最初一个月所签署的行政命令的总和还要多。拜登政府曾经标 榜最初一百日的雷厉风行，而他在第一个月也只签署到28份行政命令。特朗普行政命令中包括了建立政 府效率部、推出重大关税措施、打击非法移民等一系列具有深远意义的政策举措。 同时，特朗普政府在乌克兰停火、与欧盟关系、中东和平计划等地缘政治上也表达出强硬的立场，并在 加拿大、格陵兰岛和巴拿马运河问题上表现强势。他展示出的"美国优先主义"策 ...

以下文章来源于南风窗 ，作者邢初 微光 南风窗 . 冷静地思考，热情地生活。 短暂出现后又消失。 2024年12月底，南风窗记者走进南方某城市一家商场，发现一楼内新搭建起了一家"俄 罗斯商品直营馆"，无穹顶，占地约十几平方米。货架上的商品大多中外文混杂，包括但 不限于"大列巴""牛筋肠""格瓦斯"等等符合国人对俄罗斯刻板印象的食品。 陈列酒品的货架上，有一款1.5升塑料装的"白熊大塑"啤酒，标价39元，商品标签的显 示产地为"俄罗斯"。但在电商软件上以照片识别商品，包装与规格一模一样，三瓶打包 售价只要38.8元，产地为黑龙江哈尔滨。 作者 | 邢初 微光 来源 | 南风窗 （ID：shangyejingxiang） 城市里的"蓝白熊"，来了又走了。 过去几个月内，号称售卖俄罗斯商品的"俄货店""俄罗斯商品馆""俄罗斯国家馆"，如雨 后春笋般，在各城市冒头。这类门面往往风格鲜明且统一，多以高饱和度的蓝色为主， 蓝白色大熊为主要标志，店内装修也大多简易，有的只是临时的棚搭。 仅从外表看，就不像要久留的样子。 果然，就在1月17日，俄罗斯驻华大使馆通过官方账号发出提醒：目前，俄罗斯国家馆 在中国的官方地址仅限于在 ...