Morning session notice 重要事项: 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 黑色建材 | 钢材 | 震 荡 偏 多 | 钢材: 【行情复盘】 周四螺纹热卷收涨。夜盘收跌。 【重要资讯】 1、邯郸市、保定市自 12 月 26 日 12 时起，启动重污染天气Ⅱ级应急响应；邢台市 自 12 月 25 日 18 时启动Ⅰ级应急响应；西安市 12 月 26 日 16 时执行重污染天气Ⅱ 级应急响应；安徽省发布重污染天气省级橙色预警。 2、本周，五大钢材品种供应 796.82 万吨，周环比降幅 0.1%，五大钢材总库存 1257.99 万吨，周环比降 2.8%，五大品种周消费量为 833.61 万吨，其中建材消费环比降 3.2%， 板材消费环比增 1.4%。 【市场逻辑】 目前多数钢厂并未出台冬储政策，仅少数东北、华北钢厂推出政策。期钢厂效益略 有改善，但盈利率依然较低，产量继续低位运行。本周钢材产量下降，继续去库， | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 消费端分化，建材消费下降，板材消 ...

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 26 日星期五 Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 ，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周四国债期货主力合约多数大致平开，全天多数横向窄幅波动，TL 品种震荡回落， 截至收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2603 下跌 0.24%，10 年期 T2603 下跌 0.02%， 5 年期 TF2603 下跌 0.03%，2 年期 TS2603 下跌 0.02%。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周四央行开展了 1771 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当天有 883 亿元逆回 购到期，周四央行还开展 ...

（原标题：碳酸锂期货主力合约月内已涨近3成，广期所发布风控措施） 有机构在肯定中长期供需格局的同时，也提示了碳酸锂期货价格的短期回调风险。有观点指出，当前价 格上涨已部分包含对未来供给的预期，但国内碳酸锂月度产量实际保持环比增长，供需并未出现实质性 失衡。光大期货等机构提示，需警惕期货持仓扰动以及价格快速上涨后，现货成交跟进乏力可能带来的 波动。 近日，碳酸锂期货市场延续强劲上涨态势，成为市场关注的焦点。 本文系观察者网独家稿件，未经授权，不得转载。 12月24日，广期所碳酸锂期货主力合约强势突破12万元/吨关口，盘中一度涨超7%。尽管25日盘中出现 震荡，但最终主力合约LC2605仍收报123520元/吨，维持在高位。自12月以来，该合约价格已从9万元/ 吨附近累计上涨约29%。 《华夏时报》、《证券时报》等媒体普遍分析认为，本轮上涨是供应端预期扰动与下游需求支撑共同作 用的结果。一方面，江西宜春拟注销部分过期锂矿采矿权，以及市场对大型矿山复产时间可能延后的担 忧，引发了供应收缩的预期。另一方面，下游电池材料厂春节前的备货需求、储能领域订单的饱满排 产，共同支撑了市场情绪，推动库存持续去化。 面对价格的快速 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report The report provides a daily morning observation of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It analyzes the market trends, important news, and investment strategies for each sector based on the latest data and market conditions. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The market continued to rise on Thursday, with all stock index futures closing higher. The market sentiment is optimistic, and it is expected that the stock index will continue to rise in the future. The recommended trading strategy is to go long on a single - side basis and wait for the spread to widen for IM/IC futures - ETF arbitrage [21][22]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The main contracts of treasury bond futures closed lower on Thursday. The stock - bond seesaw effect is obvious, and it is recommended to short TS and TF contracts on a single - side basis [24]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The supply is generally loose, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to place a small number of long orders, narrow the MRM spread, and sell a wide - straddle option [27][28]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are rising, and domestic sugar prices are following. It is expected that the international sugar price will bottom - oscillate slightly stronger, and the domestic sugar price will rise in the short term. It is recommended to sell put options [30][32]. - **Oils and Fats**: There is a technical rebound in the oils and fats sector. It is recommended to go long on palm oil after it stabilizes, and the direction is to short after the rebound. The core issue of rapeseed oil lies in policy changes [34][35]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is bottom - oscillating. It is recommended to go long on the 03 and 07 contracts on a single - side basis [36][37]. - **Hogs**: The supply is generally loose, and the spot price has slightly declined. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on a single - side basis and sell a wide - straddle option [38][39]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is weakly oscillating. It is recommended to short the pk603 - C - 8200 option [41][42]. - **Eggs**: The demand is average, and the egg price has declined. It is recommended to go long on the far - month contracts on a single - side basis [44][46]. - **Apples**: The demand is average, and the fruit price is mainly stable. It is recommended to go long on the 1 - month contract and short the 10 - month contract [48][50]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The sales of new cotton are good, and the cotton price is oscillating strongly. It is recommended to go long on a single - side basis [51][54]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The restocking expectation remains to be fulfilled, and the steel price is oscillating within a range. It is recommended to maintain an oscillating position on a single - side basis, short the coil - coal ratio, and hold the short position of the coil - screw spread [57][59]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices are oscillating widely. It is recommended to wait and see [60][62]. - **Iron Ore**: The market expectation is fluctuating, and the ore price is weakly operating. It is recommended to short on a single - side basis [64][65]. - **Ferroalloys**: Supported by cost and the anti - involution expectation, the prices are rebounding in the short term. It is recommended to sell a virtual - value straddle option [66][67]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Domestic silver is independently strengthening, and gold is moderately rising. It is recommended to hold long positions in Shanghai gold and silver based on the 5 - day moving average [69][70]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The prices are in a wide - range oscillating period of capital game. It is recommended to go long on platinum and short on palladium for arbitrage and pay attention to position management [72][75]. - **Copper**: The short - term fluctuation is intensifying, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to go long on a single - side basis and pay attention to the inter - period positive arbitrage opportunity [76][77]. - **Alumina**: The price is oscillating. It is recommended to short on a single - side basis in the medium term [79][80]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The overseas market is on holiday, and the Shanghai aluminum price is oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to go long on a single - side basis in the medium term [82][84]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is still tight, and the alloy price is oscillating at a high level with the aluminum price. It is recommended to pay attention to the narrowing of the AL - AD spread when the aluminum price corrects [84][85]. - **Zinc**: The price is oscillating widely due to the interweaving of long and short factors. It is recommended to wait and see [87][88]. - **Lead**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is oscillating within a range. It is recommended to take partial profit on long positions and pay attention to the production of secondary lead smelters [89][90]. - **Nickel**: As a weak variety in the strong sector, it is experiencing a supplementary rise. It is recommended to pay attention to the sustainability of the rise [93]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is following the nickel price and operating strongly. It is recommended to pay attention to the sustainability of the nickel price rise [94]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is rebounding in the short term and recommended to short on a single - side basis in the medium term [96][97]. - **Polysilicon**: It is expected to be strong in the long term, and it is recommended to go long on a single - side basis with risk control [98][100]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is at a high level, and it is recommended to operate with caution [101][102]. - **Tin**: There is an expectation of marginal improvement in raw material shortage, and the price is adjusting at a high level. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of price correction [104][106]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: There is still a divergence on the January high point, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to take profit on most of the long positions in the EC2602 contract and hold the rest lightly [107][111]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The year - end market is quiet, and geopolitical disturbances are frequent. It is recommended to expect a narrow - range oscillation [113][114]. - **Asphalt**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the raw material contradiction affects the rhythm. It is recommended to expect an oscillation [115][119]. - **Fuel Oil**: The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are both weakly oscillating. It is recommended to short on a single - side basis [121][125]. - **Natural Gas**: LNG is oscillating at a low level, and HH has rebounded significantly. It is recommended to hold long positions in the HH2602 contract [126][127]. - **LPG**: The price is consolidating at a low level. It is recommended to short on a single - side basis for far - month contracts [129][130]. - **PX & PTA**: The polyester filament production cut is gradually implemented, and the upward price drive is weakening. It is recommended to expect a high - level oscillation and conduct positive arbitrage on the 3 - 5 contracts [131][133]. - **BZ & EB**: The pure benzene port inventory continues to rise, and the unexpected maintenance of styrene boosts sentiment. It is recommended to expect an interval oscillation and short pure benzene and long styrene for arbitrage [133][138]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The Taiwanese plant has stopped production due to poor profitability, boosting market buying sentiment. It is recommended to expect a wide - range oscillation [139][141]. - **Short - Fiber**: The raw material price is rising, and the processing fee is under pressure. It is recommended to expect a price oscillation with a strong bias [142][143]. - **Bottle - Grade PET**: It follows the cost - end fluctuation, and the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. It is recommended to expect a price oscillation with a strong bias [145][146]. - **Propylene**: The supply pressure is increasing. It is recommended to expect a wide - range oscillation [147][148]. - **Plastic PP**: PE and PP production has decreased month - on - month. It is recommended to wait and see for the L 2605 and PP 2605 contracts [149][152]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price is oscillating. It is recommended to expect an oscillation [153][157]. - **PVC**: The price is continuously rebounding. It is recommended to go long on a single - side basis [158][161]. - **Soda Ash**: The futures price is oscillating. It is recommended to expect a short - term oscillation and sell virtual - value call options on far - month contracts [160][163]. - **Glass**: The futures price is oscillating. It is recommended to expect a short - term oscillation [164][165]. - **Methanol**: It lacks upward momentum. It is recommended to go long on the 05 contract at a low price without chasing the rise [166][167]. - **Urea**: The price is oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of price correction [169]. - **Pulp**: The pulp price is oscillating widely at a high level. It is recommended to short on a single - side basis [170][175]. - **Logs**: The spot market is stable, and attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt registration. It is recommended to wait and see or place a small number of long orders [177][180]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The inventory is high, and the implementation of the price increase notice remains to be observed. It is recommended to sell the OP2602 - C - 4100 option [181][183]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - Rubber**: The production and sales of natural rubber are expected to decline in November. It is recommended to go long on the RU 05 and NR 02 contracts on a single - side basis [184][187]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The inventory accumulation rate of cis - butadiene rubber has slowed down. It is recommended to wait and see for the BR 02 contract and pay attention to the pressure at the recent high point [188][191].

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多因素主导，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多因素主导，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-12-26 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 ---------------------------------- ...

格隆汇12月26日｜早盘贵金属期货走势强劲，铂期货封涨停板，沪银一度暴涨8%，南华期货研报显 示，贵金属市场继续交易供给端受限，库存蓄水池浅且全球争夺定价与库存，而投资与配置端需求强劲 的逻辑。此外，地缘侧的复杂性对贵金属避险以及通过油价传导的抗通胀需求亦提振贵金属。相较之 下，白银因市场规模更小，且工业需求刚性以及现货市场偏紧，价格对投资需求与投机需求增加极其敏 感。接下来，继续关注新一任美联储主席的任命与经济数据对美联储货币政策预期的影响。 短期看黄 金突破前高后仍处于偏强状态；但白银高波动下价格风险仍大。 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information about the report's investment rating for the industry is provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On December 25, 2025, all four major index futures contracts for the current month rose. The overall sentiment is positive, with the market expected to be volatile but on an upward trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Index Futures Data Tracking - **Price and Change**: The closing prices of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all increased, with gains of 0.18%, 0.25%, 0.80%, and 0.97% respectively. The corresponding index futures contracts also showed varying degrees of increase [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The total trading volume of index futures decreased, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased by 11,854, 7,004, 12,456, and 14,596 lots respectively. In terms of open interest, IF and IC decreased by 563 and 3,891 lots respectively, IH increased by 197 lots, and IM decreased by 3,977 lots [1][2]. - **Basis**: The basis data for different index futures contracts are presented, showing the differences between the futures prices and the spot prices [1]. 3.2 Top 20 Member Positions in Index Futures - The data shows the changes in long and short positions of the top 20 members in different index futures contracts. For example, in the IF2601 contract, long positions decreased by 1,522 lots, and short positions decreased by 2,499 lots [5]. 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1, indicating a relatively neutral - to - slightly bullish trend [6]. 3.4 Important Drivers - The offshore RMB against the US dollar broke through the 7.0 mark during intraday trading for the first time since September 2024. Most views believe that the RMB against the US dollar has the basis for continued appreciation in 2026 [6]. - From January to November this year, 25,800 urban old residential areas were newly started for renovation across the country, and 22 regions and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps have completed their annual renovation plans [6]. 3.5 Market Conditions - The Politburo held a meeting to study and deploy the work of improving Party conduct, building a clean government, and combating corruption in 2026 [7]. - The A - share market continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index recording seven consecutive positive days. The trading volume reached 1.94 trillion yuan, slightly higher than the previous day. Some sectors such as commercial aerospace and paper - making performed strongly, while others like Hainan Free Trade Zone and precious metals weakened [7].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 股指： 周四沪指全天震荡走强，录得7连阳，深成指、创业板指探底回升。个股涨多跌少，沪深京三市超3700 股飘红，今日成交1.94万亿。截止收盘沪指涨0.47%，深成指涨0.33%，创业板指涨0.3%。近期，股指期 货市场围绕10月以来的中枢下沿持续震荡，大小盘指数分化有限，板块间轮动频繁，市场情绪相对温 和。12月政治局会议与中央经济工作会议相继召开，短期内政策对市场的影响有望增强。从政策表述来 看，重要会议提到"实现'十五五'良好开局"，预计明年5%的GDP增长目标不会改变。政策发力方向仍主 要集中在"稳内需"和"促进新质生产力快速发展"。会议提到，"必须坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密结 合"，提振居民收入水平和消费能力是宏观通胀预期回升的重要条件。同时强调"保持必要财政赤字、债 务总规模和支出总量"，表明明年财政政策与货币政策组合发力的政策不会改变，规模可能较今年小幅 提升。海外方面，尽管美联储如期降息25bp，且重启扩表计划，但点阵图显示2026年降息预期存在分 化，美股科技股出现震荡。同时，日本央行也将于近期召开议息会议，关注加息对套息交易 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Fundamental - based Judgments - **Trend空头**: Carbonate lithium, zinc, caustic soda, plastic, ferromanganese - silicon, live pigs, ferrosilicon, SSE 50 stock index futures, five - year treasury bond futures, CSI 300 stock index futures, CSI 1000 index futures, CSI 500 stock index futures, corn, eggs, urea, methanol, pulp, logs, offset printing paper, red dates, coking coal, soda ash, glass, apples, coke [2] - **Oscillating偏空**: Ethylene glycol, crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, industrial silicon, thirty - year treasury bond futures, ten - year treasury bond futures, two - year treasury bond futures, synthetic rubber [2] - **Oscillating**: Lead, zinc, aluminum, tin, copper, palm oil, plastic, rebar, corn, glass, PVC, soybean No.1, asphalt, gold, coking coal, polypropylene, ferromanganese - silicon, silver, Zhengzhou cotton [2][4] - **Oscillating偏多**: Rubber, polysilicon, bottle chips, PTA, staple fiber, p - xylene, fuel oil, cotton, cotton yarn [2] - **Trend多头**: None Quant - based Judgments - **偏空**: Rapeseed meal, sugar, PTA, methanol, lead, rubber, coke [4] - **Oscillating**: Zinc, palm oil, plastic, aluminum, rebar, tin, copper, soybean No.2, glass, PVC, soybean No.1, asphalt, gold, coking coal, polypropylene, ferromanganese - silicon, silver, Zhengzhou cotton [4] - **偏多**: Soybean meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, iron ore, eggs, corn starch, hot - rolled coil [4] 3. Key Points by Directory Macro News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to study and deploy the work on improving Party conduct, building a clean government and combating corruption in 2026, emphasizing anti - corruption and enhancing the comprehensive effectiveness of corruption governance [6] - On December 25, the offshore RMB against the US dollar rose above the "7" mark, and the on - shore RMB approached "7". The RMB is expected to appreciate in 2026 without a unilateral trend [6] - JD announced its 2025 year - end bonus plan, with 92% of employees getting full or excess bonuses, and the total bonus input increasing by over 70% year - on - year. There are also rumors of salary increases at BYD, ByteDance, and CATL [6] - The Ministry of Commerce opposed the US imposing 301 tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products, promoted compliant rare - earth magnet exports, and hoped for a balanced solution for TikTok's agreement with investors [7] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange approved the IPO application of Dapu Micro, the first unprofitable company on the Growth Enterprise Market to pass the review [7] - Israeli officials signaled a possible military conflict with Iran over Iran's efforts to rebuild its ballistic missile arsenal [7] - Morgan Stanley strategists pointed out three potential "surprises" in the US stock market in 2026: "job - less productivity improvement", the return of the inverse relationship between stocks and bonds, and a sharp rise in commodity and energy prices [7] Macro - finance Stock Index Futures - The A - share market continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.47%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.33%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.3%. The market turnover was 1.94 trillion yuan [9] - The central bank's MLF operation had a net injection of 100 billion yuan, and if bond purchases reached 350 billion yuan this month, it would be the largest - scale operation. The urgency for interest - rate cuts is low [9] - Pay attention to the sustainability of liquidity repair and structure. If the conditions are met, the index may strengthen, and focus on IH [9] Treasury Bond Futures - The short - and medium - term bonds may oscillate strongly, but the odds are more important than the direction. The capital is balanced and loose, and the capital interest rates are stable [10] - The central bank's MLF operation had a net injection of 100 billion yuan. Without interest - rate cuts, the market sentiment may decline, and bonds within 10 years will oscillate [10] Black Commodities Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may oscillate and rise in the short term. Pay attention to the production at coal mines, safety inspections, downstream raw - material winter storage, and changes in hot - metal production [12] - The production of coal mines has decreased slightly, and the third round of coke price cuts has been implemented. The demand for raw materials from steel mills has declined in the short term [12] - Due to "anti - involution" and "over - production inspection" policies, the supply of coking coal is expected to shrink, but the potential negative feedback from the steel industry may limit the price increase [12] Ferroalloys - For ferrosilicon, the end - of - session rally may stimulate hedging, and the sustainability of high prices needs attention. Manganese - silicon is weak, and focus on the new capacity launch before the end of January. In the medium term, both are bearish on rallies [13] - On December 25, the auction price of Hongliulin lump coal increased, with a decrease in the auction volume [13] Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, wait and see; for glass, try to go long after the market sentiment stabilizes [14] - Soda ash supply is at a low level due to some enterprises' maintenance, and cost increases have weakened the upstream's willingness to start production. Glass supply reduction expectations have less impact, and spot sentiment is weak [14] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - As of December 25, the domestic zinc inventory decreased. Tianjin and Guangdong saw inventory declines. After the fading of macro - positive factors, the price is expected to oscillate downward. Hold short positions [16] - In November 2025, the import of zinc concentrates increased significantly, with a year - on - year increase of 13.84% and a cumulative increase of 33.74% from January to November [16][17] Lead - As of December 25, the social inventory of lead decreased. The trading activity in the lead spot market declined. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. Wait and see, and aggressive investors can enter short positions at high prices [18][19] Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals are showing signs of weakening in the short term, but the long - term demand is positive. Look for buying opportunities after the price correction [20] Industrial Silicon - Environmental disturbances in Xinjiang and strong coking - coal prices have provided some valuation - repair space, but the rebound is under pressure. Consider selling out - of - the - money call options on rallies [21] Polysilicon - Exchange risk - control measures have tightened, and the trading volume may cool down. The expected price increase of downstream silicon wafers will support the spot price of polysilicon, and the price is expected to be strong [22] Agricultural Products Cotton - The short - term supply is loose, but the long - term supply is expected to shrink. The pre - festival restocking demand has boosted the cotton price. The US cotton production and inventory have increased, while the global production has slightly decreased [23][24] - The domestic commercial and port inventories are accumulating, but the low industrial inventory of textile enterprises and policy expectations support the price [24] Sugar - The domestic sugar market is in a season of high supply and demand, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures are undervalued, with a technical rebound. Wait and see [25] - The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus in 2025/26, but some institutions have lowered the surplus forecast. The domestic supply pressure is increasing, and the demand for pre - holiday stocking will start [26][27] Eggs - The commodity market sentiment is strong, and the pre - January festival stocking demand may increase, leading to short - covering in the near - term contracts and a price rebound. The supply - demand pattern is still loose, and the price increase space is limited before the Spring Festival [28] - The far - term contracts are supported by the expectation of a possible decline in the laying - hen inventory, but this expectation cannot be verified or falsified for now. Wait and see [28][29] Apples - The apple futures price may oscillate. The apple出库 is slightly lower than the same period last year, and the sales in the distribution areas are slow. The good - quality apple price is firm [30][31] - The national cold - storage inventory ratio is 53.31%, and the inventory is 7.021 million tons, lower than the same period last year. Citrus fruits are on the market, affecting apple sales [31] Corn - The corn price may oscillate in the short term. Wait and see and pay attention to farmers' selling sentiment [33] - The domestic corn spot price is mixed. The supply - demand mismatch is easing, but the far - term contracts face pressure from supply [33] Red Dates - The market is in a stage of concentrated new - product arrival, with supply pressure. The price may oscillate in the short term. Pay attention to the sales progress in the distribution areas and downstream purchasing sentiment [34] Live Pigs - The supply - demand pattern is still supply - strong and demand - weak. The expectation of a sharp price increase during the Winter Solstice was false, and the price is expected to oscillate downward. Go short on the near - term contracts on rallies [34][35] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The escalating situation in Venezuela has led to a rapid rebound in oil prices, but the impact is limited. In the medium term, the oil price may decline due to oversupply and the easing of geopolitical tensions [37] - The Chinese INE crude oil futures 2602 contract rose to 444.7 yuan/barrel at night [37] Fuel Oil - Geopolitical and macro - factors dominate the oil price. The supply of fuel oil is loose, and the demand is weak. The price will follow the oil price, and the inventory is increasing [38] Plastics - Polyolefins have high supply pressure and weak downstream demand, but the upstream losses may provide some support. The price is expected to oscillate [39] Synthetic Rubber - Continue to focus on the strategy of buying RU and selling BR. The butadiene inventory has increased, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term but may not maintain high prices [40] Methanol - The current supply - demand situation of methanol has improved slightly, and the inventory is gradually decreasing. Do not be overly bearish in the short term. Consider a slightly long - biased allocation for the far - term contracts after the inventory reduction is smooth [41][42] Caustic Soda - The near - term contracts of caustic soda are close to the real - world situation and are relatively weak, while the far - term contracts have many macro - positive expectations. Keep a bearish view on the main 03 contract [43] Asphalt - The asphalt price is expected to have a larger fluctuation range. The focus is on the price bottom after the winter - storage game [44] Polyester Industry Chain - The market benefits have been gradually realized, and the downstream negative feedback is increasing. Consider reducing long positions on rallies [44] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The LPG futures price has entered the delivery logic. The supply is abundant globally, and the demand has both supporting and constraining factors. The price is expected to oscillate [47] Pulp - The pulp port inventory has decreased continuously, and the spot price is firm. The market sentiment has improved, but there may be hedging pressure. Wait and see in the short term [48] Logs - The log market fundamentals are oscillating, and the spot price has stabilized. The market is expected to maintain a weak supply - demand balance [49] Urea - The urea market is expected to oscillate. The upstream production reduction is positive for the market. Pay attention to the basis pressure when the futures expectations are too strong [50]

客服产品系列•日评 焦炭：港口焦炭现货市场报价下跌，日照港准一级冶金焦现货价格 1460 元/吨，较上期价格跌 20 元/吨。供 应方面，原料焦煤价格继续下跌，给焦企仍留有一定的利润，区域内焦企开工积极性尚可，焦企多维持前期开工 水平，供给端稳中有升。需求端，部分钢厂进入检修期，钢厂高炉日耗被明显压制，钢厂对原料采购持谨慎态度， 钢厂盈利能力一般，多有控制到货现象。 焦煤：山西临汾地区主焦煤（A11、S3.5、G92）上调 7 元至出厂价 1097 元/吨，甘其毛都口岸蒙 5#原煤 996 元/吨，价格涨 31；蒙 3#精煤 1050 元/吨，较上期价格不变。供应端，部分矿井已经完成了年度任务，逐渐有矿 井限产、停产中间贸易环节以对后市持观望态度，个别地区部分煤种出货有所放缓。（数据来源：东方财富网） 【郑糖】受假期因素影响空头平仓推动美糖周三震荡走高。因上一个交易日涨幅较大受技术面影响郑糖 2605 月合约周四震荡休整。夜盘。郑糖 2605 月合约波动不大延续震荡整理走势。农业咨询机构 Safras & Mercado 表示，巴西中南部地区 2026/27 年度糖产量料达到 3,800 万吨，较上一榨季减少 ...