Market Performance - The stock indices in the two markets rose again, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up and the ChiNext Index increasing by nearly 1%, reaching a new high for the phase [1] - The North Securities 50 Index surged nearly 3%, breaking through 1600 points and setting a new historical high [1] Sector Performance - Sectors such as pharmaceuticals, liquor, agriculture, retail, and real estate saw significant gains, while brokerage, banking, and insurance sectors experienced slight declines [1] Trading Activity - Dongguan Securities noted that the market continued to show an expanding trading trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index opening high and achieving a new high on increased trading volume, indicating strong upward momentum [1] - The trading volume reached 2.8 trillion yuan on the 18th, ranking as the third highest in history, showcasing significant market profitability [1] Market Outlook - Despite the rapid rise in indices, there may be some differentiation at high levels, and investors are advised to adjust their strategies accordingly [1] - The core logic supporting the positive outlook for A-shares remains unchanged, with multiple positive factors expected to sustain an upward trend in the market [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on price fluctuations in the upstream of the black and agricultural industries, and also takes note of mid - level events in the production and service industries [1]. - It emphasizes the need to pay attention to the implementation of real - estate new policies and the development of artificial intelligence technology requirements [1]. 3. Summary by Industry Segment Upstream - In the black industry, the glass price has declined significantly year - on - year [2]. - In the agricultural industry, the prices of eggs and palm oil are rising. Specifically, the spot price of eggs on August 18 was 6.7 yuan/kg, with a year - on - year increase of 5.02%, and the spot price of palm oil was 9626.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 6.39% [2][47]. Midstream - In the chemical industry, the PX operating rate is increasing [3]. Downstream - In the real - estate industry, the sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have declined [4]. - In the service industry, the increase in the number of domestic flights has moderated [4]. 4. Key Data Charts - The report includes data charts on coal consumption, inventory, operating rates of various industries (such as PTA, PX, polyester, etc.), peak congestion indices of major cities, movie box office, flight execution, and real - estate transaction data [6]. 5. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - The report tracks the prices of various industries including agriculture, non - ferrous metals, black metals, non - metals, energy, chemicals, and real - estate. For example, in the agricultural industry, the spot price of corn on August 18 was 2317.1 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.18%; in the black metal industry, the spot price of glass on August 18 was 14.3 yuan/square meter, with a year - on - year decrease of 5.12% [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, the report presents a comprehensive analysis of various financial and commodity markets, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, container shipping futures, non - ferrous metals, black metals, and agricultural products. Different markets show diverse trends and are influenced by a variety of factors such as policy, supply - demand relationships, and international events. For example, the stock index futures market is boosted by TMT sectors and policy expectations; the treasury bond futures market is under pressure due to multiple negative factors; the precious metals market fluctuates with geopolitical events; and various commodity markets are affected by their own supply - demand fundamentals [2][5][8] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share major indices rose significantly on Monday, with TMT sectors leading the gain. The four major stock index futures contracts also increased, and their basis was further repaired. Policy expectations and market sentiment are positive, but near the interim report performance period, profit improvement needs data verification. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2509 at the strike price of around 6600 with a mild bullish view [2][3][4] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and bond yields rose significantly. Affected by multiple negative factors such as the central bank's monetary policy report, the rising stock market, and tax - period capital convergence, the bond market sentiment weakened. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short term and focus on market sentiment and key interest rate support levels [5][7] Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices fluctuated. The meeting of leaders from the US, Ukraine, and Europe brought hope for easing the Russia - Ukraine conflict, increasing risk appetite. Gold prices closed slightly down, and silver prices closed slightly up. It is recommended to build a bullish spread strategy through gold call options when the price corrects, and maintain a low - buying strategy for silver or build a bullish spread option strategy [8][9][10] Container Shipping Futures (EC) - The spot prices of major shipping companies vary, and the container shipping index shows a mixed trend. The market is in a weak - shock state. Due to high container growth and weak European demand, it is expected that the price of the October off - season contract will be lower than last year. It is recommended to hold short positions in the 10 - contract [11][12] Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of copper is high, suppressing downstream procurement. The short - term trading focus is on interest - rate cut expectations. The supply of copper concentrate is slightly relaxed, and domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decline slightly in August. The inventory shows a mixed trend. It is expected that the copper price will fluctuate in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 78000 - 79500 [13][15][16] - **Alumina**: The spot price shows a north - south differentiation. The production capacity is expected to increase slightly in August. The inventory of ports decreases, and the registered warehouse receipts increase. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely between 3000 - 3300 in the short term, and it is recommended to short at high prices in the medium term [17][18] - **Aluminum**: The spot price of aluminum decreases. The production capacity is stable, and the proportion of molten aluminum decreases, leading to an increase in inventory. Affected by the expansion of US import tariffs, the price is under pressure. It is expected that the price will be under high - level pressure in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 20000 - 21000 [20][21] - **Aluminum Alloy**: In the off - season, terminal consumption is weak, and the social inventory in major consumption areas is close to full. The supply is affected by the shortage of scrap aluminum, and the demand is suppressed by the off - season. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely, and the main contract is expected to trade between 19600 - 20400 [22][23] - **Zinc**: The spot price of zinc decreases. The supply of zinc ore is in a loose cycle, and the production of refined zinc increases. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory shows a mixed trend. It is expected that the zinc price will fluctuate, and the main contract is expected to trade between 22000 - 23000 [23][24][26] - **Tin**: The spot price of tin decreases. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the import volume is low. The demand is weak after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush and the entry of the electronics off - season. It is recommended to wait and see, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to the import situation of Burmese tin ore [27][28][29] - **Nickel**: The spot price of nickel increases slightly. The production of refined nickel is at a high level, and the demand is generally stable. The overseas inventory is high, and the domestic inventory increases slightly. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 118000 - 126000 [29][30][31] - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price of stainless steel increases slightly. The cost is supported, but the demand is weak. The production is expected to increase in August, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. It is expected that the price will fluctuate strongly in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 12800 - 13500 [32][33][35] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price of lithium carbonate increases. The supply is affected by disturbances, and the demand is optimistic. The inventory decreases slightly. It is expected that the price will be strong in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 86000 - 92000. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously and try to go long lightly at low prices [36][37][39] Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel futures price fell, and the basis strengthened. The cost increased, and the steel mill's profit improved. The supply increased, and the demand decreased, with inventory accumulating mainly in traders. Considering the expected production restrictions in the middle and late August, it is expected that the price will remain high and fluctuate, and the support levels for hot - rolled coils and rebar are around 3400 and 3150 respectively [40][41][42] - **Iron Ore**: The spot price of iron ore decreased slightly. The global shipment increased, and the port arrival volume decreased. The demand from steel mills was high, and the inventory increased slightly. Considering the production restrictions of Hebei steel mills in the late period, it is recommended to short at high prices [43][44] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures price fell. The supply from domestic mines decreased slightly, and the import of Mongolian coal was stable. The demand from downstream industries was high but slowed down. The inventory was at a medium level. It is recommended to short at high prices for speculation and conduct a 9 - 1 reverse spread for arbitrage [45][47][48] - **Coke**: The sixth round of price increase for coke was implemented, and the seventh round was initiated. The supply increased slightly, and the demand was still resilient. The inventory decreased. It is recommended to short at high prices for the 2601 contract and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread for arbitrage [49][50] Agricultural Products - **Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal)**: The spot price of soybean meal increased slightly, and the trading volume increased. The开机 rate of oil mills decreased slightly. The fundamental news shows that the US soybean crushing volume increased, and the EU's oilseed import decreased. The USDA report supported the US soybean price, but there was still upward pressure. It is recommended to take long - term long positions at low prices [51][52][53] - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs fluctuated at a low level. The profit of pig farming varied, and the average weight of pigs increased slightly. With the expected increase in group - farmed pig sales in August and the need for small - scale farmers to sell large - weight pigs, the future pig price is not optimistic. It is not recommended to short blindly for far - month contracts [54][55] - **Corn**: The spot price of corn was mixed. The supply pressure was obvious, and the demand was weak. The inventory in Guangzhou ports decreased. It is expected that the corn price will be weak and fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the growth of new - season corn [56][57][58] - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price oscillated at the bottom, and the domestic sugar price oscillated at a high level. The Brazilian sugar production increased, and the Indian sugar production was expected to increase. The domestic sugar import in July was expected to be much higher than last year. It is recommended to maintain a short - on - rebound strategy [59] - **Cotton**: After the cotton price stabilized in early August, the industrial downstream improved slightly. The inventory of cotton yarn decreased slightly, and the spinning mill's operation rate remained stable. The cotton price has support at low levels, and it is expected to oscillate, paying attention to the traditional peak - season demand [60]

Group 1: Financial Futures Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - Domestic economic growth is showing a marginal slowdown, but there's no need for excessive anxiety as a package of economic - stabilizing policies are taking effect, and more policies may be introduced if economic data continues to decline. Overseas, the possibility of a September interest - rate cut is uncertain, and attention should be paid to US economic data and Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting [1]. - In the context of weakening consumption momentum and inflation concerns, the US economic downturn risk has significantly increased. The Jackson Hole meeting will be an important window to observe policy trends. The US dollar index may maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, and the USD/CNY exchange rate is likely to trade in the 7.15 - 7.23 range [2]. - The stock index was extremely active yesterday, but risk management is necessary. The market's short - term upward trend is driven by funds, sentiment, and a structural market, but it should not deviate from the economic fundamentals in the long term [3][4][5]. Summary by Directory - **Macro**: Track domestic high - frequency economic data. Pay attention to US economic data changes and policy signals from Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The stock - exchange linkage has not been achieved. The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1792 at 16:30, up 31 basis points from the previous trading day [1]. - **Stock Index**: Yesterday, the stock index rose significantly with large trading volume, and the market index reached a new high again. The trading volume of the two markets increased by 5195.51 billion yuan [3]. Group 2: Commodities Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - **Precious Metals**: Focus on the global central bank meeting. Precious metals are in a narrow - range shock. The medium - to - long - term trend may be bullish, and the short - term is in an overall shock adjustment [8][9][10]. - **Copper**: The price dropped slightly on Monday, and it may continue to fluctuate or be slightly stronger in the short term [11]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be in a strong - shock state; alumina is in a weak - shock state; cast aluminum alloy is in a strong - shock state [12][13]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals remain unchanged, and it is in a weak - shock state [13]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The short - term trend may continue to fluctuate [14][15]. - **Tin**: It is mainly in a shock state, relatively strong [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The upside is limited, and profit - taking is recommended [17][18]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is in a narrow - range shock in the short term and is expected to enter a shock - strengthening state in the long term. Polysilicon's supply is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the component tender on Friday [19][20]. - **Lead**: It is in a narrow - range shock [20][21]. Summary by Directory - **Gold & Silver**: The market was in a narrow - range shock on Monday. The market is focusing on the global central bank meeting's guidance on the Fed's future interest - rate cut prospects. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3378 per ounce, down 0.14% [8]. - **Copper**: In July 2025, China's exports of unwrought copper and copper products increased by 35.4% year - on - year, and imports increased by 10.0% year - on - year [11]. - **Aluminum**: On August 15, the US expanded the scope of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports. Aluminum prices are expected to be in a strong - shock state, with a price range of 20300 - 20800 [12]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price was in a weak - shock state on the previous trading day. The supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and the demand is weak [13]. Group 3: Black Metals Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The macro - drive has weakened, and the fundamentals are showing signs of deterioration. However, the supply contraction expectation still exists, and the price decline is limited. The rebar 10 contract is expected to have support around 3100, and the hot - rolled coil around 3350 [24]. - **Iron Ore**: The shipment has increased significantly. The price is expected to fluctuate, and the downside is limited [25]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term market speculation sentiment has cooled down. In the long - term, the market may fluctuate widely with emotions. The subsequent focus is on the changes in the finished product inventory [26][27]. Summary by Directory - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The supply of steel products is increasing while the demand is decreasing, and the inventory is accumulating faster than the seasonality. However, the absolute value of the total steel inventory is not high, and the cost support still exists [24]. - **Iron Ore**: The global iron ore shipment has increased significantly, and the price is oscillating downward. The price is expected to fluctuate, and the downside is not very pessimistic [25]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal supply is in a tight - balance state, and the coke supply is still tight in the short term. The market may fluctuate widely with emotions [26][27]. Group 4: Energy and Chemicals Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - **Crude Oil**: The overnight market rebounded slightly and continued to adjust weakly. The geopolitical risk has decreased, and the medium - term risk of a downward break has increased [29][30]. - **LPG**: The fundamentals have not changed much, and it maintains a loose situation [31][32]. - **PTA - PX**: In the short - term, follow the cost - end fluctuations and delivery logic. In the medium - term, do long the PTA processing fee at low levels [33][34]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: The peak - season expectation is emerging. Ethylene glycol is recommended to be bought at low levels, and the bottle - chip processing fee can be traded in a range [35][36][37]. - **Methanol**: Wait for the opportunity to go long. Consider closing 09 short positions near the reverse - flow window, and wait for the best buying point for the 01 contract [37]. - **PP**: It will continue to be in a shock pattern. Focus on the demand side and cost - end changes [38][39][40]. - **PE**: It will be in a shock pattern in the short term, and the subsequent trend depends on the recovery of downstream demand [40][41]. - **PVC**: The situation remains weak, and it is recommended to be short - allocated [41][42]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: They are in a range - shock state. For styrene, consider shorting the spread between pure benzene and styrene at high levels [43][44]. - **Fuel Oil**: It is still weak, and the short - term drive is downward [45]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The short - term is recommended to be on the sidelines [46]. - **Asphalt**: It follows the cost - end and is in a weak - shock state [47]. - **Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber**: The upside is under pressure, and it is expected to oscillate in the 15700 - 16100 range [47][48][49]. - **Urea**: It is in a range - shock state, and the 09 contract is expected to oscillate between 1650 and 1850 [49][50]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: They follow the shock. Pay attention to the cost - end price fluctuations for soda ash, policy guidance for glass, and downstream demand for caustic soda [50][51][52][53]. - **Pulp**: The upward momentum is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [53]. Summary by Directory - **Crude Oil**: The overnight market rebounded slightly. The geopolitical situation is cooling down, and the potential support for crude oil is weakening [29][30]. - **LPG**: The supply is still loose, and the demand has slightly improved. The inventory is at a high level [31]. - **PTA - PX**: The PX supply is expected to increase, and the PTA processing fee is at a historical low. Do long the PTA processing fee at low levels [33][34].

Core Points - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions between Canada and China, primarily triggered by Canada's steel tariff quota policy introduced by Prime Minister Carney in June 2025, which imposes a 50% additional tax on steel products exceeding a 2.6 million ton import quota from non-free trade agreement partners [1][4][8] - China's swift response included filing a lawsuit with the WTO on August 15, 2025, accusing Canada of violating non-discrimination principles and market access obligations [4][6] - The article highlights the broader implications of Canada's trade protectionism, which has led to significant economic repercussions, including job losses and a decline in agricultural exports [20][21] Trade War Dynamics - Canada's additional 25% tariff on products containing Chinese steel is seen as a direct attack on China's steel industry, prompting a strong reaction from China [4][6] - The U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, which were raised to 50% in March 2025, have already reduced Canadian steel exports to the U.S., creating a challenging environment for Canada [6][8] - The article emphasizes that Canada's strategy of targeting China has backfired, placing it in a difficult position between U.S. and Chinese tariffs [8] Agricultural Sector Impact - Prior to the steel dispute, China had already taken action against Canadian agricultural products, specifically imposing a 75.8% deposit on Canadian canola due to dumping practices [10][12] - The increase in Canadian canola exports to China from 2.4376 million tons in 2021 to 5.0502 million tons in 2023, while maintaining lower prices than the international market, raised concerns about market distortion [12][14] - The measures taken by China are framed as necessary to protect its agricultural sector and counteract Canadian trade protectionism [14][16] Economic Consequences - The article outlines the severe economic consequences for Canada, including a loss of 40,800 manufacturing jobs in July 2025 and an estimated annual loss exceeding 1.5 billion Canadian dollars in canola exports [20][21] - The unemployment rate in Canada has reached an eight-month high, indicating the broader economic strain caused by the trade disputes [21] - The article suggests that Canada could mitigate these issues by diversifying its markets and engaging in cooperative initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative [23] Legal and Multilateral Trade Considerations - China's legal actions are framed as a defense of its rights and a commitment to multilateral trade rules, with support from various international economic entities [25][27] - The article notes that China's adherence to international rules during the anti-dumping investigation showcases its commitment to procedural justice and enhances its standing within the WTO [25][27] - The ongoing trade disputes serve as a warning to global trade participants about the risks of unilateral actions in an interconnected economy [27]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the consumer sector, indicating a "recommended" investment rating for the industry based on favorable fundamentals and expected outperformance against market benchmarks [32]. Core Insights - The consumer sector is showing signs of recovery, with a notable increase in market performance over the past year, with absolute performance at 43.6% over 12 months [5]. - The report highlights the importance of various consumer segments, including beverages, health products, and traditional consumer leaders, suggesting a focus on companies with strong growth potential and market positioning [10][11][13][14]. Industry Size - The industry comprises 1,212 listed companies, with a total market capitalization of 17,950.8 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 16,373.6 billion [3]. Consumer Trends - Retail sales growth in July was below expectations, with a year-on-year increase of only 3.7%, indicating challenges in consumer spending [8]. - The report notes that the introduction of new consumer subsidies may take time to impact sales positively, particularly in sectors like home appliances and furniture [8]. Beverage Sector - The beverage segment is highlighted as a growth area, with companies like Nongfu Spring and Uni-President showing strong performance, particularly in bottled water and health drinks [10]. - The report emphasizes the potential for market share growth for brands like Dongpeng and the positive impact of cost management on profitability for companies like Uni-President [10]. Health Products - The health product sector is also noted for its resilience, with companies like H&H International showing stable growth and an upward revision of annual guidance [10]. Traditional Consumer Leaders - Companies such as Haitian Flavoring and Zhenjiu Li Du are recommended for their strong market positions and potential for recovery in profitability as market conditions improve [11]. Jewelry and Cosmetics - The jewelry sector, particularly Chow Tai Fook, is positioned for growth due to strategic reforms and product upgrades, while the cosmetics sector shows promise with companies like Shiseido and Maogeping reporting strong mid-year performance [13][14]. Textile and Apparel - The report identifies leading sportswear brands like Anta and Li Ning as key players in the textile sector, with a focus on innovation and market expansion [15]. E-commerce and Food Delivery - The report discusses the competitive landscape in the food delivery sector, with expectations for continued growth in tea and fast-food brands due to ongoing subsidies and market dynamics [21][22]. Pharmaceutical Sector - The report highlights the innovation in the pharmaceutical industry, particularly for companies like Heptares Therapeutics, which are positioned to benefit from global demand for innovative drug solutions [26][27].

Group 1 - Indonesia officially became a member of BRICS at the beginning of 2025, with a total of 20 member and partner countries by the end of June [1] - In the first half of the year, China's trade with other BRICS countries reached 6.11 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, accounting for 28.1% of China's total trade [1] - The expansion of the BRICS cooperation mechanism is seen as a significant step for the Global South, promoting industrial transformation and trade growth [1] Group 2 - BRICS countries are leveraging their comparative advantages in various sectors, achieving notable results in trade cooperation in industrial, agricultural, and infrastructure fields [2] - In agriculture, China imported palm oil and rapeseed oil from other BRICS countries, with a year-on-year increase of 13.7%, and exports of agricultural machinery grew by 34.7% [2] - The cooperation in the infrastructure sector is accelerating, with significant increases in China's exports of road rollers and concrete mixers to other BRICS countries [3] Group 3 - The "Smart Customs" demonstration center for BRICS countries was launched on June 30, providing a platform for sharing customs experiences and facilitating trade policy understanding [4] - The center offers resources in multiple languages and includes sections on trade data, customs news, and enterprise services, enhancing communication among BRICS customs [4] - A dual-language curriculum has been established to support capacity building and cooperation among BRICS customs, showcasing China's smart customs practices [4] Group 4 - Future efforts will focus on accelerating customs capacity building and cooperation among BRICS countries, supporting trade exchanges effectively [5]

Group 1 - India is facing significant economic challenges due to a 50% total tariff imposed by the US, which includes a 25% tariff on negotiations and an additional 25% tariff for purchasing energy from Russia [1][5][11] - Prime Minister Modi expressed helplessness in protecting key sectors like agriculture and steel, while initially hoping for successful negotiations with the US in late July [3][5] - The cancellation of the US trade delegation's visit to India in late August further diminished India's hopes for a resolution, leaving the country in a precarious position [8][11] Group 2 - The situation has led India to reconsider its foreign policy, with Modi planning to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in China, indicating a shift towards closer ties with China [11][19] - India's reliance on Russian energy imports has drawn US ire, as it challenges US interests in the region, highlighting India's vulnerability in international relations [11][21] - The need for India to engage more actively in organizations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS is emphasized as a strategy to mitigate the loss of cooperation with the US [19][21]

Group 1 - The opening of the fishing season in the South China Sea marks a busy period for fishing ports, with numerous fishing boats setting out to sea [33] - In Jiangmen, nearly 1,800 fishing boats departed from various ports, with the first catch hitting the market the same evening [34] - The seafood promotion event in Zhanjiang aims to enhance brand building and market presence for local seafood products through media collaboration [16][18] Group 2 - The "Xinjiang products southbound, Guangdong products northbound" event showcases the strength of Guangdong's textile and apparel industry in Xinjiang [9][10] - The event features representatives from key garment regions in Guangdong promoting their products, highlighting the synergy between Guangdong's manufacturing and Xinjiang's cotton [11] - The event is part of broader efforts to strengthen economic ties and promote regional products [9][10] Group 3 - The "Jiyue Agricultural Shared Economy and Quality Specialty Agricultural Products Promotion Conference" was held during the Changchun International Agricultural and Food Expo, focusing on enhancing agricultural cooperation between Guangdong and Jilin [39][41] - The conference emphasizes the importance of media collaboration in building market systems for agricultural products [42] - The event aims to explore new pathways for cooperation and shared development in agriculture [40][41]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic economic data fell short of expectations, leading to an increased expectation of policy stimulus. The overall risk appetite in the domestic market has increased, with short - term bullish sentiment for stocks and cautious optimism for commodities [2]. - The long - term outlook for precious metals remains positive, but short - term support has weakened. Black metals are expected to be weak in the short term, while non - ferrous metals and new energy metals show mixed trends. Energy and chemical products are likely to remain in a weak or narrow - range oscillation pattern. Agricultural products present complex supply - demand relationships and price trends [4][6][14][17]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the US President announced significant progress with Russia, reducing global risk - aversion sentiment. US retail sales in July met expectations, but the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation decreased. Domestically, July economic data slowed down and missed expectations. Policies such as the personal consumption loan fiscal subsidy plan and the extension of the China - US tariff truce may boost consumption and reduce short - term tariff uncertainties [2]. - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors like batteries, securities, and banks, the domestic stock market rose. With economic data underperforming and policy support, the short - term upward momentum has increased. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended, but beware of high - level corrections [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Last week, precious metals oscillated weakly. Inflation data fluctuations and Fed policy uncertainties restricted the upside. Long - term prospects are positive due to monetary easing and central bank gold - buying demand [4]. Commodity Research Black Metals - **Steel**: The US expansion of steel and aluminum tariff scope is negative for steel billets and hot - rolled coils. Real - world demand is weakening, inventory is rising, and supply may decline further. A short - term weak - oscillation approach is recommended [6]. - **Iron Ore**: Last Friday, prices rebounded slightly. With approaching important events, iron - water production may decline. Supply is under pressure, and prices may weaken [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. Manganese ore prices are rising, and some silicon - iron enterprises are profitable and eager to resume production [7]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is excessive, demand is weak, and inventory is high. The upside is limited [8]. - **Glass**: Supply is stable, demand is hard to increase significantly, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term. Consider long positions in far - month contracts [8][9]. Non - ferrous and New Energy Metals - **Copper**: US PPI data exceeded expectations. Copper supply is expected to be stable, and domestic demand may weaken. The strong price trend may not last [10]. - **Aluminum**: The US expansion of aluminum tariffs affects global exports. Aluminum fundamentals are weakening, and mid - term upside is limited [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Scrap aluminum supply is tight, and demand is in the off - season. Prices may oscillate strongly in the short term but have limited upside [11]. - **Tin**: Supply may increase, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited rebound space [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Production is at a new high, raw - material support is strengthening, and inventory is shifting downstream. Prices are expected to oscillate strongly [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Production is increasing, inventory is high, and prices are expected to oscillate strongly [12][13]. - **Polysilicon**: Production is expected to increase in August. Inventory is decreasing slightly, and attention should be paid to the August 19th photovoltaic enterprise symposium [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US - Russia talks had no substantial results. The oil market may face an oversupply situation in 2026. Short - term short positions are recommended, but beware of geopolitical risks [14]. - **Asphalt**: Crude - oil prices are weakening, and asphalt prices are under pressure. It is expected to remain weakly oscillating [14]. - **PX**: It remains in a tight supply situation in the short term and will oscillate until PTA device changes [14]. - **PTA**: Supply is restricted, demand is slightly increasing, and prices are supported but have limited upside [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply and demand may both increase slightly, maintaining an oscillating pattern [15]. - **Short - fiber**: Prices are driven down by sector resonance. Observe terminal orders for de - stocking [15]. - **Methanol**: The inland market is strong, while the port market is weak. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [16]. - **PP**: Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is slightly rising. The 09 contract may be weakly oscillating, and the 01 contract should be watched for peak - season restocking [16]. - **LLDPE**: Supply pressure persists, and demand shows signs of recovery. The 09 contract may be weakly oscillating, and the 01 contract should be monitored for demand and restocking [16]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The net short position of funds in the CBOT soybean market is increasing. A bumper harvest may be realized, but the export situation is uncertain. The price of 1000 cents per bushel is temporarily supported [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The cost of soybean meal is rising in the short term, but the spot market is not following. The cost - driven logic may weaken [17]. - **Oils and Fats**: Vegetable oil inventory is high and difficult to deplete, while soybean oil and palm oil show different trends. Consider the buy - soybean - sell - palm oil arbitrage strategy [18]. - **Corn**: Northeast corn prices are weak, with low trading activity and sufficient inventory in downstream enterprises. The futures market is sluggish [18]. - **Pigs**: Weekend spot prices were weak, but the decline has narrowed. Observe the performance during the late - August consumption peak [18][19].