来源丨国际财闻汇 一份信息量高于以往的就业报告预计将揭示美国劳动力市场近年来放缓的程度，甚至可能表明其增长已完全停滞。 除常规月度就业人数和失业率数据外，定于周三发布的1月就业报告还将包含备受关注的年度就业数据修正值。此前初步估计显示，截至2025年3月 的年度就业数据可能出现创纪录的91.1万人的下修，预计此次修正将显著下调招聘速度。 BMO Capital Markets首席美国经济学家Scott Anderson表示："今年的年度基准修正将比往常更具影响。当前劳动力市场确实处于净就业增长与可 能出现就业流失的刀锋边缘。" 这份由美国劳工统计局编制的报告原定于2月6日发布，但因政府部分停摆而推迟。 "零。一点都没有。完全没有，"沃勒在声明中表示，"这根本不像一个健康的劳动力市场。" 富国银行经济学家在报告中指出："1月就业报告可能使疲软的劳动力市场格局基本维持不变。" 每年1月就业报告发布时，劳工统计局会将就业数据与更精准但不够及时的季度就业与工资普查数据进行基准校准。该数据基于各州失业保险税记 录，覆盖美国大部分就业岗位。 除2025年3月经调整的就业水平外，劳工统计局还将发布去年全年经修订的月度就业人 ...

春节临近，首都农产品消费迎来高峰。为保障节日期间市场供应平稳、价格稳定，北京农投公司所属北京市农业融资担保有限公司（简称"北京农担"）近 日正式启动"春节金融保供专项服务行动"，通过高效、精准的普惠金融服务，全力保障农产品流通链条畅通，守护市民"菜篮子"。 针对节前商户备货资金需求急、周转频的特点，北京农担携手北京农商银行、工商银行北京分行等合作银行，依托银担"总对总"合作机制，进一步优化审 批流程，对民生保障类融资需求开通"绿色通道"，实现快速审批、及时放款。在材料齐全的情况下，项目审批可缩短至3-5天，有力保障了节日市场供应 稳定。 作为服务首都"菜篮子"工程的重要金融力量，北京农担充分发挥自身深耕大型农产品批发市场的网络优势，依托设在新发地、京深海鲜、锦绣大地等核心 市场的乡村振兴金融服务站，构建起覆盖主要农批市场的"30分钟金融服务圈"，大幅提升服务效率与体验。 走访市场 2026年1月，北京农担已为53家市场商户提供政策担保支持5338万元，有效缓解了中小微商户节前资金压力，确保货源组织顺畅、市场储备充足。 北京农担作为北京农投公司四位一体业务体系重要组成部分，此次专项行动既是其履行政策性职能、服务 ...

专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 过去一周，贵金属价格剧烈波动，获利回吐和过热仓位交织导致价格从历史高位回落。美联储领导层可 能更迭，引发美国货币政策不确定性，也加剧了市场波动。 然而，支撑多年上涨行情的诸多因素—— 地缘政治风险加剧、央行加大购入力度以及投资者抛售主权债券和货币——依然存在。 本周投资者密切关注美国非农就业数据、消费者价格和首次申请失业救济人数的公布，以寻找货币政策 的新信号。市场已经预期2026年至少会降息两次，每次降息25个基点。 包括德意志银行和高盛集团在内的许多银行和资产管理公司都看好黄金价格，认为其将因这些长期需求 驱动因素而复苏。为了凸显官方需求的强劲，中国央行在1月份将黄金购买计划延长至第15个月。富国 银行2月4日将年底目标价上调至每盎司6100美元至6300美元，此前摩根大通和瑞银分别将目标价设定为 每盎司6300美元和6200美元，均暗示金价有进一步上涨的空间。 为何机构依然坚定看多？ 1． 全球"去美元化"与央行持续购金：这是当前黄金市场最坚实、最稳定的需求来源。以中国央行为代 表，其连续15个月增持黄金储备的行动，为黄金市场提供了一个巨大的、结构性的需求底部，有效缓冲 了投 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant shift in asset allocation among residents and enterprises, with increased investment in wealth management and asset management products, indicating a potential "loss" of bank deposits [1][2][4] Group 1: Asset Management Growth - The scale of asset management products has grown rapidly, reaching a total asset balance of 120 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.1% [2] - The growth in asset management products is attributed to the marketization of interest rates, with a notable shift in investment from bank deposits to higher-yielding asset management products [2][3] - By the end of 2025, funds from households and enterprises in asset management products reached 56.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, outpacing the growth of household and enterprise deposits [3] Group 2: Changes in Deposit Structure - The rapid growth of asset management products has altered the structure of bank deposits, with a decrease in the proportion of household and enterprise deposits and an increase in interbank deposits [4] - Even with some deposits shifting to wealth management and asset management products, a significant portion is still directed towards interbank deposits and certificates of deposit, which ultimately returns to the banking system [4] Group 3: Liquidity Assessment - The overall liquidity in the financial system can be better assessed by considering both bank deposits and asset management products, along with direct financing and non-bank business [5] - The central bank has actively managed liquidity needs in the banking system, with a net injection of 6 trillion yuan through open market operations in 2025, indicating a relatively loose financing environment [6] - The report emphasizes that while the structure of bank liabilities may change due to shifts in asset allocation, the overall liquidity in the financial system remains stable [6]

Macro Dynamics - Five departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, are accelerating the development of guidelines for the utilization and technological innovation of low-altitude economic radio frequency resources to support low-altitude infrastructure development [2] Health and Safety - The National Health Commission has warned against "light medical beauty" projects being conducted by non-medical institutions, emphasizing that such procedures must be performed in qualified medical facilities by licensed professionals to mitigate health risks [3] Market Data - The State Administration for Market Regulation conducted a special inspection of food safety ahead of the Spring Festival, testing 67,000 batches with a compliance rate of 98.38%, indicating overall good food safety conditions [4] - The National Healthcare Security Administration announced the results of the first to eighth batches of national drug procurement, involving 316 commonly used drugs and 1,020 enterprises with 4,163 products qualifying for selection [5] Financial Institutions - China Bank has increased its registered capital from approximately 294.4 billion RMB to about 322.2 billion RMB, marking an increase of approximately 9.5% [6] Market Performance - On February 10, the A-share market showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.13% and the ChiNext Index falling by 0.37%, while the total trading volume was approximately 2,105.5 billion RMB, a decrease of about 143.9 billion RMB from the previous trading day [7] - The Hong Kong stock market closed with the Hang Seng Index up by 0.58% and the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 0.62%, driven by significant gains in the pharmaceutical and media sectors [8] Company Dynamics - *ST Lifan announced that its stock will resume trading on February 11 after completing an investigation into stock price fluctuations, noting that the company's fundamentals have not changed significantly [9] - Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation reported a net profit of 1.223 billion RMB for Q4 2025, a year-on-year increase of 23.2%, with total revenue of 17.813 billion RMB, up 11.9% [11] - WeChat has launched a "national subsidy" interest service for credit card bill installment repayments, with seven banks participating in the initial rollout [10] - Chow Tai Fook confirmed that it will raise prices for gold products after the Spring Festival, although the timing and extent of the increase have yet to be determined [13] - Sam's Club, Hema, and Dingdong Maicai announced adjustments to service arrangements and delivery fees during the Spring Festival period [15]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are stabilizing above $5,000 as investors assess whether prices have bottomed out after a historic sell-off, despite a 10% decline since the record high in January [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold has experienced a significant drop, with the largest single-day decline since 2013, while silver faced its largest single-day drop on record [2] - Factors supporting the long-term rebound in gold prices include heightened geopolitical risks, continued central bank purchases, and low interest rates [2] - Many banks and asset management firms, including Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs, expect gold prices to recover due to these long-term demand drivers [3] Group 2: Price Predictions - BNP Paribas forecasts that gold prices could rise to $6,000 per ounce by the end of the year, driven by ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical risks [2] - The gold-silver ratio has rebounded, although it remains below the average levels seen in the 1980s [2] Group 3: Central Bank Activity - Central bank purchases continue to support gold's outlook, with Poland announcing an additional purchase of 150 tons last month, and China extending its gold buying streak to 15 months [2] - Gold ETF inflows have remained stable, with a brief decline during a recent pullback, followed by a recovery [2] Group 4: Silver Market Trends - Silver has experienced extreme volatility driven by strong physical demand in Asia, but signs of weakness are emerging in the physical market as supply flows into Europe and Asia [3] - The upcoming Lunar New Year holiday may further suppress domestic demand for silver in China [3]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.58% to close at 27,183.15 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.62% to 5,451.03 points, and the National Enterprises Index climbed by 0.81% to 9,242.75 points [1] - The index opened at 27,202.96 points, initially rising before retreating, and ultimately gained 155.99 points with a total turnover exceeding 234 billion HKD [1] - There were 1,344 advancing stocks, 923 declining stocks, and 896 stocks closing flat by midday [1] - The net inflow for the southbound trading (Hong Kong Stock Connect) was 84.7 million HKD [1] Sector Performance - Most sectors experienced gains, including chips, optical communications, biomedicine, new energy vehicles, oil and gas, banking, aviation, and port transportation [1] - Mixed performance was noted in new consumption, non-ferrous metals, and brokerage sectors, while gold, technology, real estate, and electricity sectors mostly declined [1] Individual Stock Movements - Notable stock movements included Pop Mart rising by 4.90%, Longi Green Energy increasing by 8.88%, Xiaomi Group up by 1.08%, and SMIC gaining 1.71% [1] - China Ping An rose by 0.62%, AIA fell by 0.52%, Zijin Mining increased by 2.52%, and Tianzuo Zhixin surged by 12.40% [1] - COSCO Shipping Energy rose by 5.49%, Zhihui gained 14.81%, and Rongchang Biotech increased by 3.64% [1] - HSBC Holdings rose by 0.72%, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China increased by 0.77%, and China Petroleum gained 1.64% [1] Top Traded Stocks - Tencent Holdings saw a decline of 1.61% with a turnover exceeding 16.1 billion HKD; Alibaba rose by 1.65% with a turnover over 9.3 billion HKD; Meituan fell by 2.47% with a turnover of 6.6 billion HKD [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the importance of actively and prudently preventing and resolving financial risks in its monetary policy execution report for Q4 2025 [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Framework - The next phase of monetary policy will focus on establishing a comprehensive macro-prudential management system and a mechanism for systemic financial risk prevention and resolution [1] - The central bank aims to enhance its macro-prudential and financial stability functions, improving the toolbox for macro-prudential and financial stability management to maintain stable financial market operations [1] Group 2: Systemic Financial Risk Management - There will be a strengthened monitoring, assessment, and early warning system for systemic financial risks from a macro, counter-cyclical, and contagion perspective [1] - The macro-prudential management of systemically important financial institutions will be reinforced, advancing the construction of an additional regulatory framework [1] Group 3: Regulatory Enhancements - The report outlines the need for systemically important banks to continuously improve their recovery and resolution plans, exploring the proactive guidance role of risk management [1] - A mechanism for cross-border crisis management among globally systemically important banks will be established, enhancing cross-border regulatory cooperation and information sharing [1] Group 4: Risk Mitigation Strategies - The additional regulatory coverage will gradually expand to the non-bank sector, focusing on risk resolution in key regions and institutions [1] - The financial stability mechanism will be solidified, with continued accumulation of deposit insurance funds and financial stability guarantee funds, and exploration of a backup financing mechanism [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is expected to maintain a steady growth trajectory, with a GDP growth rate of 5% in 2025, supported by a moderately loose monetary policy and effective financial measures to stabilize the economy and financial markets [1]. Monetary Policy Measures - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) aims to maintain reasonable growth in money and credit by utilizing various monetary policy tools, ensuring ample liquidity to meet the effective credit demands of the real economy [2]. - The PBOC plans to lower social financing costs by reducing policy interest rates and other related rates, thereby supporting the overall financing environment [2]. - There will be increased support for major strategic areas and weak links, with specific allocations such as 300 billion yuan for technology innovation and agricultural loans, and 500 billion yuan for consumer and elderly care loans [2]. - The PBOC will ensure the stability of the exchange rate, allowing the market to play a decisive role in its formation while maintaining the yuan's stability at a reasonable level [2]. Economic Indicators - By the end of 2025, the total social financing scale and broad money supply (M2) are projected to grow by 8.3% and 8.5% respectively, significantly outpacing nominal GDP growth [3]. - The growth rate of loans, after adjusting for local government debt impacts, is expected to be around 7%, indicating strong credit support [3]. - The average interest rates for new corporate loans and personal housing loans are projected to be around 3.1% [3]. - Various loan categories, including technology, green, inclusive, elderly care, and digital economy loans, are expected to see double-digit growth rates, with technology loans growing by 11.5% and green loans by 20.2% [3]. External Economic Environment - The global economic landscape is facing challenges such as insufficient growth momentum, increased trade barriers, and divergent economic performances among major economies, leading to uncertainties in inflation and monetary policy adjustments [4]. - Despite these challenges, China's economic foundation remains strong, with advantages and resilience that support long-term positive trends [4]. Future Policy Directions - The PBOC will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery [5]. - There will be a flexible approach to using various policy tools to maintain liquidity and support balanced credit distribution, aligning social financing and money supply growth with economic growth and price expectations [5]. - The PBOC aims to enhance its macro-prudential management and financial stability frameworks to prevent systemic financial risks [6].

春节临近，多家A股上市公司在节前实施现金分红。 数据显示，从股权登记日看，2025年12月1日至2026年2月9日，已有约270家A股上市公司实施现金分 红，合计金额超3700亿元，同比增长约9.6%。节前最后一周，还有约30家公司计划实施分红。 本文转自【央视财经】； 中金公司首席国内策略分析师 李求索：考虑到今年春节相较去年晚近20天，今年节前上市公司分红相 对更加积极，从行业层面看，银行股分红约占70%。 2025年12月以来，国有六大行累计现金分红超2000亿元；招商银行、兴业银行等12家股份制银行合计派 发超500亿元。此外，食品饮料板块分红占比约13%，非银金融约占4.6%，同样位居前列。 中国银河证券首席策略分析师 杨超：一些成长标的也开启分红派发，电子行业共计17家上市公司参与 现金分红，金额合计89亿元。 专家表示，春节前分红规模扩大，是政策引导、企业盈利改善以及公司治理持续优化等多重因素共振的 结果。 中金公司首席国内策略分析师 李求索：2024年4月发布的新"国九条"指出，要强化分红监管，对分红比 例偏低的公司，限制大股东减持、实施风险警示，也提出要推动一年多次分红、预分红，并且鼓励春节 ...