Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected increase of over 15% relative to the CSI 300 index within the next six months [19] Core Insights - The company, Zhongji Xuchuang, is experiencing rapid growth in orders for 1.6T optical modules, with a continuous increase in the proportion of silicon photonics [7][8] - The company is a leading global supplier of optical modules, providing high-speed optical modules for cloud data center clients and telecom equipment manufacturers, with a significant market share growth [7] - The demand for optical modules is driven by the increasing requirements for AI applications and data center interconnectivity, with the global optical module market expected to exceed $23 billion in 2025, growing by 50% year-on-year [8] - The company anticipates a substantial increase in net profit for 2025, projected to be between 9.8 billion to 11.8 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 89.5% to 128.17% [5] Financial Performance - The company reported a gross margin of 40.74% and a diluted return on equity of 27.03% as of September 30, 2025 [7] - The revenue for 2025 is projected to be 38.146 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 59.86% [10] - The net profit for 2026 is expected to reach 26.029 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 140.23% [10] Market Position and Trends - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for silicon photonics technology, which is expected to grow from 27% market share in 2023 to 59% by 2030 [8] - The company has secured supply agreements with key suppliers to ensure the availability of core materials, which will support continued growth in shipment volumes [8] - The report highlights that the demand for 1.6T optical modules is expected to become mainstream among CSP clients by 2027, indicating a strong future market potential [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share optical module sector remains hot, with key stocks like Xinyiseng, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Tianfu Communication being heavily favored by leveraged funds despite market fluctuations [1][3] Financing and Trading Activity - On February 2, Xinyiseng and Zhongji Xuchuang were the top two stocks in margin trading, with financing purchases of 48.54 billion yuan and 45.35 billion yuan respectively, while Tianfu Communication ranked eighth with 13.81 billion yuan [1] - The financing balances for these companies have significantly increased, with Xinyiseng at 21.09 billion yuan, Zhongji Xuchuang at 22.36 billion yuan, and Tianfu Communication at 7.32 billion yuan as of February 2, 2026 [4] - Since 2025, the total financing transaction amounts for Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyiseng, and Tianfu Communication have been 462.93 billion yuan, 414.72 billion yuan, and 155.84 billion yuan respectively, indicating a strong correlation between financing and stock price movements [3][4] Stock Performance - Xinyiseng's stock price reached a historical high on February 2, while Zhongji Xuchuang and Tianfu Communication have also shown strong performance, with significant price increases since 2025 [1][4] - The cumulative stock price increases since 2025 for Xinyiseng, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Tianfu Communication are 433.90%, 380.92%, and 268.52% respectively, placing them at historical high levels [4] Earnings Forecasts - Xinyiseng is expected to achieve a net profit of 9.4 to 9.9 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 231% to 249% [9] - Zhongji Xuchuang anticipates a net profit of 9.8 to 11.8 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 89.50% to 128.17% [11] - Tianfu Communication forecasts a net profit of 1.88 to 2.15 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 40% to 60% [13] Market Outlook - Analysts believe that the optical module sector still has room for valuation improvement, driven by strong earnings growth and industry positioning [9][11] - The market views the optical communication sector as relatively undervalued, with ongoing demand growth and capacity constraints expected to shape the industry's future [14]

2月3日，市场探底回升，沪指、创业板指均涨超1%，深成指涨超2%。截至收盘，沪指涨1.29%，深证 成指涨2.19%，创业板指涨1.86%。沪深两市成交额2.54万亿，较上一个交易日缩量405亿。 那么，是什么原因导致A股指数宽幅巨震?大盘何时才能企稳? 2、算力硬件概念集体走强 光纤光缆、光模块、铜缆高速连接等算力硬件概念全天强势，罗博特科、沃格光电等多股涨停。 据券商中国援引分析人士观点：从短期来看，一方面外围流动性持续衰减的势头暂时企稳，但地缘变数 仍在;另一方面，考虑到长假将至，内地去杠杆可能还会零星出现。因此，市场可能会偏震荡格局。具 体来看： 第一，从昨晚到今早，贵金属强劲反弹，美国杠杆借贷指数亦小幅企稳，虚拟货币亦有反弹。但值得注 意的是，这里是不是反转还难有定论，因此杠杆借贷指数反弹幅度微弱，虚拟币反弹也不多，比特币目 前仍维持在7.9万美元以下水平。这很难说，流动性的格局已经完全扭转。从地缘来看，中东的问题依 然存在变数。特朗普说，美国正与伊朗对话，"如果我们能达成某种协议，那就太好了。如果不能，可 能会出现不好的情况"。他再次对伊朗发出军事威胁，重复美国向伊朗派出"庞大"舰队、"规模甚至比 ...

Group 1 - The core logic of technology investment is based on "first principles," emphasizing that the performance of AI systems is determined by the shortest supply chain segments rather than the most powerful components [2] - The investment strategy focuses on identifying bottleneck segments in the supply chain, particularly in storage, as demand for storage is expected to grow significantly due to the increasing size of AI models and their requirements [4][12] - The investment approach is characterized by a shift from macro capacity considerations to micro-level KPIs and contract details, highlighting the importance of operational efficiency and management practices in the supply chain [5][6] Group 2 - The storage sector is identified as a critical bottleneck in the AI supply chain, with demand growth outpacing that of GPUs, driven by the evolution of multi-modal models and increased data throughput [8][11] - The supply constraints in the storage market are attributed to high capital expenditure requirements and technological barriers, making it difficult for new capacity to meet the surging demand [14][16] - The expected structural changes in the storage market indicate that by 2026, over half of storage procurement will come from AI data centers, with a significant shift towards customized and long-term contracts [15][16] Group 3 - The investment philosophy emphasizes the importance of understanding industry dynamics and avoiding speculative behaviors based on price movements, advocating for a focus on fundamental industry truths [7][12] - The narrative economy is highlighted as a significant factor influencing asset pricing, where trends and narratives can drive valuations faster than actual earnings growth [27][28] - The competitive landscape in the AI sector is evolving, with companies like Google and Nvidia driving demand for optical devices and storage, indicating a shift in value distribution within the supply chain [23][29]

Group 1 - CPO and other computing hardware stocks continue to strengthen, with companies like Robotech and Tianfu Communication seeing over 10% gains, reaching historical highs [1] - The optical module sector is performing strongly, with companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng releasing better-than-expected earnings forecasts, indicating sustained high demand for global computing infrastructure [1] - Zhongji Xuchuang expects a net profit of 9.8–11.8 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 89.5%–128.2%, while Xinyi Sheng anticipates a net profit of 9.4–9.9 billion yuan, a significant increase of 231.2%–248.9% [1] Group 2 - Starting in 2026, the value-added tax rate for certain telecom services will increase from 6% to 9%, which will accelerate the transformation of operators from traditional telecom service providers to comprehensive information service providers [2] - Major telecom operators are focusing on integrating communication, computing, and intelligent services, with China Mobile proposing three growth curves and China Telecom deepening its AI initiatives [2] - The computing sector is expected to remain one of the most prosperous technology directions in 2026, with a projected shortage of optical modules, indicating strong market demand [2] Group 3 - As of February 3, 2026, the Guozheng Communication Index rose by 1.82%, with the Guangfa Communication ETF increasing by 1.84%, reaching a peak of nearly 4% during the day [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the ETF account for 54.9%, with notable increases in stocks like Xunwei Communication and Tianfu Communication [3] - The Guangfa Communication ETF has seen a recent scale growth of 22.88 million yuan and a net inflow of 2.1731 million yuan, indicating strong investor interest [3]

Market Performance - The A-share market showed weakness today, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 2.5% [1][5] - Major indices experienced declines, including the CSI 300 down 2.1%, the STAR 50 down 3.9%, and the ChiNext Index down 2.5% [1][5] - The trading volume today was 2.6 trillion yuan, a decrease of approximately 0.26 trillion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][5] External Factors - The adjustment in the A-share market is primarily attributed to increased external uncertainties, including the nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, which has affected expectations for U.S. monetary policy [2][6] - Global commodity prices have sharply declined, impacting market sentiment and risk appetite, with significant drops in gold and other commodities [2][6] Investment Strategy - The current market volatility presents opportunities for bottom-fishing, as the underlying positive factors such as ample liquidity and improving performance remain unchanged [3][7] - The market is expected to continue supporting Chinese assets in 2026, driven by the restructuring of international order and domestic industrial innovation trends [3][7] Sector Focus - Suggested areas for investment include: 1. Growth sectors such as AI technology, cloud computing, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are entering a growth cycle [4][8] 2. Export-oriented sectors, particularly in home appliances, engineering machinery, and gaming, which are seen as stable growth opportunities [4][8] 3. Cyclical sectors like chemicals and renewable energy, which may benefit from improving supply-demand dynamics [4][8] 4. High-dividend stocks, which are attractive for long-term investors seeking stable cash flow [4][8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the optical module sector is experiencing a significant rally, with leading companies like ZTE, New Fiber, and Tianfu Communication showing strong growth forecasts for 2025 due to increased global investment in computing infrastructure and high demand for optical modules and devices [1][2][5] - The companies have disclosed their 2025 annual performance forecasts, with Zhongji Xuchuang expecting a net profit of 9.8 billion to 11.8 billion yuan, New Fiber forecasting 9.4 billion to 9.9 billion yuan, and Tianfu Communication projecting 1.881 billion to 2.15 billion yuan [3][5] - The ChiNext AI ETF (159363) has seen a significant increase in trading volume, with a recent inflow of 150 million yuan, indicating strong investor interest in the sector [1][2] Group 2 - The ETF manager, Cao Xuchen, emphasizes that the optical module sector represents a clear industrial trend, benefiting from a loose liquidity environment that allows for upward performance and valuation channels [2][5] - The ChiNext AI ETF has approximately 60% of its portfolio allocated to computing power (including leading optical module companies) and about 40% to AI applications, positioning it well to benefit from the commercialization of AI technology [5][6] - The optical module sector is expected to maintain its leading position in the market, driven by strong expectations and low valuations, particularly in the context of market volatility [2][5]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced significant adjustments due to increased external uncertainties, including the nomination of the next Federal Reserve Chairman affecting expectations for U.S. monetary easing and a global decline in commodity prices impacting market sentiment [1][3] Market Performance - The A-share market showed weak performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 2.5%. The market has been in a correction phase since January 13 due to high turnover rates and overheated sentiment. Major indices, including the CSI 300 and the ChiNext Index, also saw declines of 2.1% and 2.5% respectively, while the STAR Market Index dropped by 3.9% [2][3] External Factors - The adjustment in the A-share market is primarily attributed to external uncertainties, such as the nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, which has altered market expectations for monetary policy. Walsh's previous hawkish stance has led to reduced expectations for a dovish shift in Fed policy, causing market volatility [3][4] - Additionally, a significant drop in global commodity prices has affected risk appetite and sentiment in equity markets. The price of gold, which had surged earlier, saw a decline of over 20% from its peak, contributing to a broader sell-off in commodities and impacting investor sentiment [3][4] Investment Strategy - The current market volatility presents opportunities for bottom-fishing investments. Despite the fluctuations, positive factors such as ample liquidity, improving earnings, and industry trends remain unchanged. The company suggests that the short-term volatility has begun to create opportunities for strategic investments [4][5] - In the medium term, the company emphasizes that the restructuring of international order and the resonance with China's industrial innovation trends are the core drivers of the current market rally and the revaluation of Chinese assets. These conditions are expected to continue supporting the performance of Chinese assets through 2026 [4][5] Sector Focus - The company recommends focusing on several sectors for investment: 1. Growth sectors such as AI technology, which is expected to enter an application phase by 2026, with opportunities in optical modules and cloud computing infrastructure [5] 2. Export-oriented sectors, including home appliances, engineering machinery, and gaming, which are seen as certain growth opportunities [5] 3. Cyclical sectors that are nearing improvement points in supply-demand dynamics, such as chemicals and renewable energy [5] 4. High-dividend quality stocks, which are expected to attract long-term capital due to their stable cash flows and dividend certainty [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the fiber optic sector, indicating a favorable outlook for companies involved in this industry [4]. Core Insights - The fiber optic industry is entering a demand upcycle driven by AI data center construction, leading to a supply-demand imbalance and increased prices for fiber optic products [10][14]. - Major companies like Corning have secured significant contracts, such as a $6 billion order from Meta for fiber optic cables, highlighting the growing demand in the sector [29]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high-speed networking equipment, particularly in AI applications, which require advanced fiber optic solutions to meet performance standards [3][38]. Summary by Sections 1. Fiber Optic Demand Surge - The fiber optic and cable industry is experiencing a new development phase with tight market supply and increased demand due to AI data center construction [14]. - The supply side has faced years of capacity clearing, while the demand side is driven by the construction of AI data centers, leading to a significant increase in fiber optic demand [10][15]. 2. Market Review - The communication sector has shown strong performance, with the fiber optic segment outperforming other areas [18][20]. - The fiber optic index has seen a notable increase, reflecting the sector's robust growth compared to broader market indices [20]. 3. Industry News - Meta's capital expenditure for 2026 is projected at $135 billion, indicating strong investment in technology and infrastructure [27]. - Corning reported record sales and earnings for 2025, with expectations for continued growth in 2026 [28]. 4. Company News - Companies like Hengtong Optic-Electric and Yangtze Optical Fibre have reported significant profit increases, with Hengtong's net profit expected to grow by 77.39% to 112.87% in 2025 [30][31]. - Other firms, such as Shijia Photon, anticipate substantial profit growth, indicating a positive trend across the industry [32]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies within the fiber optic supply chain, such as Yangtze Optical Fibre and Hengtong Optic-Electric, as well as those in the liquid cooling sector [38]. - The ongoing demand from AI applications is expected to drive further price increases in fiber optics, making it a key area for investment [38].

证 券 研 究 报 告 中际旭创（300308）2025 年业绩预告点评 强推（维持） 业绩符合预期，1.6T 有望快速放量 当前价：649.00 元 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 23,862 | 38,337 | 90,981 | 145,304 | | 同比增速(%) | 122.6% | 60.7% | 137.3% | 59.7% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 5,171 | 10,889 | 28,081 | 47,186 | | 同比增速(%) | 137.9% | 110.6% | 157.9% | 68.0% | | 每股盈利(元) | 4.65 | 9.80 | 25.27 | 42.47 | | 市盈率(倍) | 139 | 66 | 26 | 15 | | 市净率(倍) | 37.7 | 24.6 | 12.8 | 7.2 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2026 年 1 月 ...