证券研究报告 | 2025年12月14日 估值周观察(12月第2期) 日韩新领涨，成长重回升势 策略研究 · 专题报告 证券分析师：王开 021-60933132 wangkai8@guosen.com.cn S0980521030001 证券分析师：陈凯畅 021-60375429 chengkaichang@guosen.com.cn S0980523090002 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 核心观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 近一周（2025.12.8-2025.12.12）海外市场涨跌互现，估值整体温和变动。日韩领涨，韩国综合指数和东证指数涨幅均超过1.5%；美股 除道琼斯工业指数外悉数下跌，纳斯达克100（-1.93%）领跌；欧元区分化，整体波动较小；香港全线下跌。估值整体温和变动。除日 经225（+1.65x）和韩国综合指数（+3.83x）PE显著扩张，其余指数PE变化幅度均不超过1x。从估值分位数看，东证指数和韩国综合 指数位于历史较高水平，印度SENSEX30和道琼斯工业指数处于较低区间。 • 近一周(2025.12.8-2025.12.12)，A股核 ...

CPO 大爆发！科技又成主线 20251211 摘要 A 股市场呈现分化，创业板反弹而上证指数回调，全球股市亦普遍下跌 或调整，与美联储降息决策不确定性、主要央行货币政策分歧及美国政 府数据缺失等宏观事件相关。 港股受多重因素影响波动剧烈，海外投资者对政策和汇率敏感，内资相 对稳定。海外投资者普遍持观望态度，等待经济工作会议结果，导致市 场流动性受影响。 市场面临全球央行加息带来的流动性紧缩和国内增量政策不确定性风险， 人民币汇率波动增加不确定性。3,900 点是有效支撑位，但缺乏上行动 力，指数或将震荡。 光模块（CPO）是 AI 产业中实现高效算力传输的关键组件，需求刚性。 OCS 技术在谷歌产业链中占据重要地位，但国内产业链需关注具备核心 竞争力的企业。 上游资源品种供需关系有所改善，未来是否加码需观察政策方向。市场 对增量政策期待较高，若政策强劲落地，将有助于扭转市场预期。 Q&A 年末资金是否已经开始休息？市场波动的原因是什么？ 年末并不意味着资金会提前休息，反而是一个资金动作频繁的时间点。一方面， 有些资金需要锁定收益，另一方面，也有部分资金开始为明年做准备。12 月份 市场波动较大，尤其是 A ...

2025年12月8日，A股市场迎来了一个标志性的交易日：三大指数集体收涨，两市成交额突破2万亿元， 环比放量超过3000亿。创业板指领涨2.6%，但更值得玩味的是行业涨跌背后的结构性分化——通信板 块暴涨近5%，而煤炭等周期板块逆势下跌。这不仅仅是反弹，更可能是一次深刻的风格切换信号。 首先，我们复盘今日的市场核心数据。指数层面，创业板指（+2.6%）>深证成指（+1.39%）>上证指数 （+0.54%），成长风格显著占优。成交额放大至20366亿元，这是一个关键指标，表明有增量资金入 场，市场脱离了此前存量博弈的格局。电子、通信板块成交额均破千亿，是绝对的焦点。 驱动市场上涨的核心力量清晰可见：以通信、电子、计算机、电力设备为代表的科技成长板块。其中， 通信板块4.79%的涨幅具有极强的指向性。如果我们深入产业链内部，会发现涨幅最惊人的是光模块 （CPO）、光芯片等细分领域，相关概念指数涨幅高达9%以上。这背后是两条坚实逻辑的支撑： 第一，全球AI算力需求爆发，驱动光模块产业进入高景气周期。 英伟达、AMD等巨头对下一代芯片和 互联技术的规划，直接拉动了作为数据中心"神经网络"的光模块需求。国内头部厂商已深 ...

12月8日上午，A股三大股指集体大涨，创业板指涨超3%，创成长指数涨超5%。 截至午间收盘，沪指报3927.19点，涨0.62%，深证成指涨1.55%，创业板指涨3.02%。 沪深两市半日成交额为1.29万亿元，较上个交易日放量2971亿元。个股涨多跌少，全市场共3549只个股上涨，62只个股涨停，有1692只个股下跌。 从板块看，大科技板块大幅上涨，通信设备、电子元器件、电脑硬件、航天军工等板块强势拉升，光模块（CPO）、6G、存储芯片、商业航天、光刻机 等概念股大涨；而煤炭、石油化工、能源设备板块领跌。 12月8日上午，A股通信设备板块领涨市场，光模块（CPO）概念板块爆发，"易中天"扛大旗，中际旭创股价创新高，天孚通信涨停创新高。 "易中天"大涨。中际旭创涨8.1%，现报580.53元/股，创历史新高，最新市值达6450亿元。 新易盛涨9.4%，现报413元/股，最新市值为4105亿元。 天孚通信录得20%涨停，现报238.5元/股，创历史新高，最新市值为1854亿元。 通宇通讯10cm涨停，光库科技、源杰科技涨超13%，德科立、长光华芯涨超10%，联特科技涨近10%，太辰光、仕佳光子、长芯博创、华工科 ...

Market Overview - Major stock indices in the Asia-Pacific region mostly rose, with the South Korean Composite Index and Nikkei 225 both experiencing slight gains, while SoftBank Group saw a significant decline of nearly 10%, marking its largest drop since November 5 [1] - The A-share market showed a strong upward trend, with the ChiNext Index closing up nearly 2% and total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reaching 1.83 trillion yuan, an increase of 858 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The AI application concept surged again, with Rongji Software hitting the limit up for six consecutive days and Shida Group achieving four consecutive limit ups [2] - Computing hardware stocks remained strong, with TeFa Information hitting the limit up for three consecutive days, and Changfei Optical Fiber and Huilv Ecology also reaching their daily limit [2] - The optical module (CPO) index saw a significant increase of 8.2%, with Dekoli, Changguang Huaxin, and Guangku Technology all hitting the limit up [3] Pharmaceutical Sector - Stocks related to flu prevention experienced substantial movements, with companies like Beijing Medical and Guangji Pharmaceutical seeing their shares surge to the limit up [4] - Recent data indicated a dramatic increase in sales of Oseltamivir by 237% and a rise of 180% for Mabalawe [4] Regional Highlights - The Fujian sector rapidly rose, with stocks such as Fujian Expressway and China Wuyi hitting the limit up [5] Hong Kong Market - In the Hong Kong market, Bilibili rose approximately 5%, Baidu Group increased over 4%, and Xiaomi rebounded nearly 4%, regaining a market capitalization of over 100 billion HKD [6] - Xiaomi's stock price had previously dropped over 35% since reaching a yearly high on June 27, but recent announcements of significant stock buybacks and personal investments by CEO Lei Jun have positively impacted its stock [6] Investment Insights - According to Goldman Sachs' chief China equity strategist, the rise of Chinese stocks led by AI is not a bubble, and there is still room for technology companies to enhance their valuations and profits through a focus on AI applications [6]

Market Overview - The A-share market opened higher on November 25, with the ChiNext Index rising by 3% at one point [1] - By midday, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 3880.22 points, up 1.13%, while the Shenzhen Component rose by 2.04% and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.6% [2] Trading Volume and Market Sentiment - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.17 trillion yuan, a significant increase of 149.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [3] - A total of 4888 stocks rose, with 77 hitting the daily limit up, while only 458 stocks declined [3] Sector Performance - The technology growth sector showed strong performance, particularly in computing hardware and AI applications, with significant rebounds in communication equipment and electronic components [3] - The optical module (CPO) sector surged by 9%, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit up, including Dekoli, Changguang Huaxin, and Guangku Technology [7] - Precious metals and education sectors also saw gains, while the aquaculture sector experienced a notable decline [3][18] Notable Stocks - Key stocks in the optical module sector included: - Dekoli: 20% increase, market cap of 22.6 billion yuan, year-to-date increase of 104.7% [8] - Guangku Technology: 20% increase, market cap of 36.6 billion yuan, year-to-date increase of 203.19% [8] - Changguang Huaxin: 20% increase, market cap of 15.7 billion yuan, year-to-date increase of 129.01% [8] - In the precious metals sector, notable performers included: - Huaxi Nonferrous: 9.33% increase, market cap of 25.6 billion yuan, year-to-date increase of 137.62% [14] - Shengda Resources: 6.25% increase, market cap of 16.3 billion yuan, year-to-date increase of 98.44% [14] Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hang Seng Technology Index rose over 1.4%, with notable increases in stocks such as Bilibili (nearly 6% increase) and Xiaomi Group (over 4% increase) [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant increase in the optical module (CPO) index, which surged by 3% during intraday trading, indicating strong market activity in this sector [1] - Major constituent stocks of the CPO index showed active performance, with Shijia Photon hitting the daily limit up, while Changguang Huaxin, Yuanjie Technology, Dongshan Precision, and Changxin Bochuang also recorded notable gains [1]

Market Overview - On November 6, the A-share market opened higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing the 4000-point mark, and the Sci-Tech 50 Index rising over 3% at one point [1][4] - By midday, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.88%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.39%, and the ChiNext Index also gained 1.39% [1] Trading Data - The highest point reached was 4007.21, with an opening at 3973.35 and a trading volume of 415 million hands [2] - The total market capitalization stood at 64.65 trillion [2] Sector Performance - The total trading volume for the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.32 trillion, an increase of 188 billion compared to the previous trading day [4] - The technology sector saw a strong comeback, particularly in the semiconductor chip sector, which led the market [4][6] - The phosphorous chemical sector also experienced significant gains, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit [11][12] Notable Stocks - In the semiconductor sector, stocks like Changguang Huaxin and Demingli saw a surge, with Changguang Huaxin hitting a 20% limit up [7][8] - Other notable performers included Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng, with respective increases of 2.51% and 1.28% [9][10] - The phosphorous chemical stocks such as Qingshuiyuan and Batian shares also reached their daily limit [13][14] Weak Sectors - The ice and snow tourism sector faced a significant pullback, with stocks like Dalian Shengya hitting the limit down [20][21] - The Hainan Free Trade Zone sector also saw a sharp decline, with Haikou Group experiencing a limit down at one point [19][22]

Core Viewpoint - The optical module (CPO) index experienced a decline of 3% during intraday trading, with most constituent stocks showing a downward trend [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Tianfu Communication saw a significant drop of 10.98% [1] - Dekoli, New Yisheng, Guangku Technology, and Tongyu Communication also reported declines of 8.92%, 6.42%, 5.27%, and 4.48% respectively [1]

Market Overview - On October 28, the A-share market opened lower but rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing the 4000-point mark for the first time in ten years, closing at 4005.44 points, up 0.21% [2][3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 1.35 trillion yuan, with 3057 stocks rising and 2142 stocks falling [5] Sector Performance - The artificial intelligence and cloud computing sectors led the gains, while the gold and coal sectors experienced significant declines [5] - Notable sectors with strong performance included two-way integration, glass fiber, lithium battery electrolyte, optical modules, and optical chips [5][6] Key Stocks - New Yisheng's stock rose nearly 4%, with a current price of 420.01 yuan per share and a market capitalization of 417.5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-to-date increase of over 400% [9] - Tianfu Communication's stock increased by 2.59%, currently priced at 194.98 yuan per share, with a market cap of 151.6 billion yuan and a year-to-date increase of over 200% [10] - Lian Te Technology surged over 12%, with other companies like Dekeli, Cambridge Technology, and Shijia Photon also showing significant gains [12] Optical Module Sector - The optical module market is experiencing rapid growth driven by the increasing demand for AI computing power, with leading companies expected to maintain strong profitability and competitive advantages [14] Robotics Sector - The humanoid robot sector saw significant gains, with Sanhua Intelligent Control's stock rising over 6% to a record high of 50.68 yuan per share, with a market cap of 207.6 billion yuan [16] Domestic Software Sector - Kingsoft Office's stock rose over 8% to 343.14 yuan per share, with a market cap of 158.9 billion yuan, following a strong Q3 report showing a 25.33% year-on-year increase in revenue [21][23] - Other application software stocks like Geer Software and Tax Friend recorded gains of 10% [24] Banking Sector - The banking sector showed mixed performance, with Agricultural Bank reaching a new historical high of 8.31 yuan per share, up nearly 1% [26][29] - Postal Savings Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank also saw slight increases, while other banks like CITIC Bank and Everbright Bank experienced declines [28][29] Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector faced declines, with stocks like Shengda Resources and Zhaojin Gold dropping over 2% [30][31] - International gold prices showed volatility, with spot gold trading at approximately $1991.42 per ounce [32]