尿素日报 | 2025-11-06 供应端：截至2025-11-05，企业产能利用率80.32%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为157.81 万吨（+2.38），港口样本 库存量为11.00 万吨（-10.00）。 需求端：截至2025-11-05，复合肥产能利用率31.04%（+3.33%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为49.98%（+1.68%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数7.29日（-0.24）。 尿素现货在厂家下调报价后低价成交好转，持续性一般，预计短期震荡。目前部分地区农业秋季肥进行中，复合 肥秋季肥生产收尾，整体开工率随装置恢复有所提升，当前冬小麦所需的复合肥以清库为主，随天气转晴，走货 情绪转好。三聚氰胺开工小幅提升，刚需采购。随着新增产能释放，中长期尿素供需仍偏宽松，四季度气头检修 预计12月逐渐开始。本周产销弱平衡，尿素厂内库存小幅累库，库存高位仍为内蒙，关注东北复合肥开工率、原 料采购节奏以及全国淡储节奏。尿素目前仍受出口情绪影响，目前尿素出口政策仍有变化，关注后续尿素出口动 态。 策略 单边：区间震荡 跨期：观望 跨品种：无 厂内库存小幅累库 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-11-05，尿素主力收 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net income for Q3 2025 increased to $411 million compared to $122 million in the prior year [6] - Adjusted EBITDA rose to $806 million from $448 million year over year, driven by higher prices across all segments [6] - Cash flow from operations was $229 million for Q3, impacted by over $400 million increase in working capital [21][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. phosphate production improved sequentially, with trailing three-month production volumes reaching approximately 1.8 million tons [9][31] - Mosaic Fertilizantes showed excellent performance with adjusted EBITDA increasing year over year despite a challenging credit environment [5][10] - Potash production cash cost per ton decreased from $75 in Q2 to $71 in Q3, with expectations for Q4 unit costs to remain similar [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Phosphate markets remain tight due to global supply constraints, with prices elevated despite recent moderation [6][13] - Potash markets are balanced, with strong demand driven by affordability, particularly in China and Southeast Asia [8][14] - Brazilian fertilizer demand is expected to grow as growers replenish soils and expand acreage [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on achieving reliable production, leveraging market access, and executing a capital reallocation strategy to create shareholder value [4][5] - Recent investments in the Taquari Potash Mine and Patos de Minas asset reflect a commitment to redeploy capital toward higher return opportunities [5][24] - The company anticipates a strong finish to 2025 and a promising outlook for 2026, driven by strong agricultural fundamentals [11][16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the resilience of the business in a dynamic market and geopolitical environment, with a focus on consistent performance [4] - There are concerns about fertilizer affordability impacting grower purchasing behavior, particularly in the U.S. and Brazil [7][12] - Management expressed optimism about the future, citing strong crop yields and the need for nutrient replenishment [9][16] Other Important Information - The company achieved $150 million in initial cost savings and is on track to reach a revised target of $250 million by the end of 2026 [5] - Cash conversion rates are expected to improve significantly in 2026 as raw material prices stabilize and phosphate rock inventories are consumed [22][46] - The company is actively engaged in discussions regarding non-core asset sales and capital reallocation, with several strategic talks ongoing [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on production performance after September issues - Management confirmed commitment to achieving normalized production rates, with recent improvements noted despite some delays [28][30] Question: Difference between good and bad production days - The distinction is now based on operational decision-making rather than structural asset health, with a focus on consistency in operations [34][35] Question: Clarification on phosphate run rate and margins - The current phosphate run rate is approximately 1.8 million tons, with expectations for improved margins as production increases [37][39] Question: Cash flow and CapEx outlook - Cash flow conversion is expected to improve in 2026, with a focus on reducing capital expenditures [43][46] Question: Impact of sulfur prices on phosphate margins - Stripping margins are expected to decline due to rising raw material costs, but remain above historical norms [75][76] Question: Implications of phosphate being added to the critical minerals list - Management is advocating for streamlined regulatory frameworks to enhance competitiveness and supply within North America [81][82]

Core Viewpoint - China Heartlink Fertilizer (01866) announced a share buyback plan, investing HKD 2.553 million to repurchase 350,000 shares on November 5, 2025 [1] Group 1 - The company plans to repurchase shares as part of its capital management strategy [1] - The total amount allocated for the buyback is HKD 2.553 million [1] - The number of shares to be repurchased is 350,000 [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The futures and spot prices of urea have rebounded in resonance, but there is no obvious driving force in the fundamentals. Without substantial positive factors, it is expected to consolidate at a low level [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Market Analysis] - Urea opened flat and moved lower intraday but ended up rising. The upstream factories' shipping atmosphere has improved, and prices have risen slightly. The ex - factory price of small - grain urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1,500 to 1,550 yuan/ton [1][5]. - Xinjiang Zhongneng Wanyuan's 2 million - ton production capacity was ignited, and it is expected to produce products in the middle of the month. The daily output has exceeded 190,000 tons, and high - level daily production is expected before large - scale gas and production restrictions [1]. - The autumn fertilizer season for downstream users is basically over, and terminal fertilizer stocking is the main activity. After the futures have been rising for several days, the market's purchasing sentiment has improved. The operating load and inventory of compound fertilizer factories have both increased, and the operation will gradually pick up, but mostly with pre - orders. The finished product inventory will enter an accumulation trend [1]. - The inventory in urea factories has increased. On one hand, agricultural demand is gradually ending, and purchases have decreased. On the other hand, shipments are hindered due to environmental protection requirements [1]. [Futures and Spot Market Quotes] - **Futures**: The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1,625 yuan/ton, opened flat and moved lower, rose intraday, and finally closed at 1,633 yuan/ton, up 0.49%. The trading volume was 272,255 lots (-16 lots). Among the top 20 long - short positions of the main contract, the long position decreased by 2,118 lots, and the short position increased by 1,059 lots. Dongzheng Futures had a net long position of +1,099 lots, Hongyuan Futures had a net long position of +310 lots; Guotai Junan had a net short position of -686 lots, and Zheshang Futures had a net short position of -880 lots [2]. - **Spot**: The shipping atmosphere of upstream urea factories has improved recently, and prices have risen slightly. The ex - factory price of small - grain urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1,500 to 1,550 yuan/ton [1][5]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On November 5, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 3,900, unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. [Fundamental Tracking] - **Basis**: The mainstream spot market quotation was stable today, and the futures closing price rose. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the January contract was -63 yuan/ton (-3 yuan/ton) [7]. - **Supply Data**: On November 5, 2025, the national daily urea output was 199,600 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 84.34% [8]. - **Enterprise Inventory Data**: As of November 5, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.5781 million tons, an increase of 23,800 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 1.53%. The pre - order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 7.29 days, a decrease of 0.24 days from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.19% [12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Sinofert Holdings, with a target price of HKD 1.84 based on a PE of 8.5x for FY26 [3][13]. Core Insights - In the first three quarters of 2025, Sinofert Holdings achieved a net profit of approximately CNY 1.364 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6% despite challenges such as high raw material costs and declining synthetic ammonia market prices [1][15]. - The company is actively promoting its "Bio+" strategy, which focuses on the development and innovation of biological products, resulting in significant sales growth of high-end biological fertilizers [2][12]. - A memorandum of cooperation was renewed with the Jordanian Arab Potash Company (APC) for the period 2026-2028, enhancing the strategic partnership and ensuring stable supply of potash fertilizers in China [1][15]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The projected net profits for Sinofert Holdings from 2025 to 2027 are CNY 1.263 billion, CNY 1.384 billion, and CNY 1.547 billion, respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [3][4]. - The company's operating revenue is expected to grow from CNY 212.65 billion in 2024 to CNY 267.23 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 9% [4][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from CNY 0.15 in 2024 to CNY 0.22 in 2027, reflecting the company's improving profitability [4][9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent urea market prices have shown a weak fluctuation, with futures prices maintaining a low range between 1580 to 1650 yuan per ton, and the average price of small particle urea in China at 1610.60 yuan per ton, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.12% compared to the previous period [1] Supply Analysis - Urea supply remains high, with significant inventory levels contributing to a market condition of oversupply, which continues to pressure urea prices [1] - In terms of supply, production facilities in Gansu, Xinjiang, and Shanxi have resumed operations, with daily production fluctuating around 200,000 tons. New production capacity in Xinjiang is expected to come online in mid-November, maintaining daily production above 200,000 tons [1] Demand Analysis - Downstream demand is primarily driven by essential needs, with stable production of compound fertilizers and agricultural reserves gradually replenishing stock. Purchases are made on a need basis, particularly when prices are low [1] - The demand for urea is relatively stable due to ongoing production of compound fertilizers and the replenishment of agricultural reserves across various regions [1] Market Outlook - The market is expected to maintain an oversupply condition due to the traditional off-season for agriculture, which may limit the downward adjustment of urea prices despite significant cost pressures on production facilities [1] - Overall, urea prices are anticipated to remain weak and stable, with close attention needed on the progress of new production capacity and changes in raw material costs [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Yuntu Holdings has seen a 5% increase in stock price, reaching 10.70 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 308 million CNY and a turnover rate of 3.33%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 12.923 billion CNY [1] - Yuntu Holdings, established on August 31, 1995, and listed on January 18, 2011, is primarily engaged in the production and sale of various types of compound fertilizers, with a significant focus on the deep development of the compound fertilizer industry chain [1] - The revenue composition of Yuntu Holdings includes: new compound fertilizers and phosphate fertilizers at 34.92%, conventional compound fertilizers at 28.43%, trade at 18.85%, other products at 9.53%, yellow phosphorus at 5.43%, and soda ash at 2.84% [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of major fund holdings, one fund under Guolian Fund has a significant position in Yuntu Holdings, specifically the Guolian Smart Selection Pioneer Stock A (020748), which held 113,600 shares, accounting for 0.44% of the fund's net value, ranking as the tenth largest holding [2] - The Guolian Smart Selection Pioneer Stock A (020748) has achieved a year-to-date return of 35.71%, ranking 1245 out of 4216 in its category, and a one-year return of 41.64%, ranking 874 out of 3901 [2] - The fund manager of Guolian Smart Selection Pioneer Stock A, Wang Zhe, has a tenure of 6 years and 357 days, with a total asset scale of 2.519 billion CNY, achieving a best fund return of 106.32% during his tenure [3]

Group 1: Climate Risks - Climate-related risks are categorized into transition risks and physical risks, impacting financial, compliance, and reputational aspects for companies[3] - Transition risks arise from changes in policies, laws, technologies, and consumer preferences aimed at addressing climate change[3] - Physical risks include acute events like extreme weather and long-term changes in climate patterns, affecting operational stability[3] Group 2: Climate Opportunities - Efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change can create opportunities for businesses, including resource efficiency and market resilience[3] - Enhanced disclosure of climate-related risks and opportunities will provide necessary metrics for investors and stakeholders to analyze potential financial impacts[3] Group 3: Regulatory Framework - The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment released a draft for the "Corporate Sustainable Disclosure Standards No. 1 - Climate" on April 30, 2025, establishing systematic disclosure requirements[3] - The TCFD framework emphasizes the financial impacts of climate-related issues through revenue, expenditure, assets, liabilities, and capital[3] Group 4: Global Emission Trends - From 1850 to 2019, the cumulative CO2 emissions reached approximately 2400±240 GtCO2, with over 58% occurring before 1990[12] - The remaining carbon budget to limit global warming to 1.5°C is estimated at 500 GtCO2, with a 50% probability of success[23] Group 5: International Agreements - The Paris Agreement aims to limit global temperature rise to well below 2°C, with 194 parties committed to its goals[28] - The TCFD was established by the Financial Stability Board in 2015 to provide guidance on climate-related financial disclosures, enhancing market stability[33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Report's Core View - The report indicates that although urea exports are progressing, the domestic supply - demand situation remains loose, and the market is expected to continue its downward trend in the near term. It also suggests a neutral view on the overall market, with macro and cost factors being positive, while weak domestic demand is negative [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cost - The prices of coking coal, anthracite small pieces remained unchanged at 465.00 and 920.00 respectively, while the price of natural gas decreased by 100.00 to 4200.00 [1]. Price - The prices in most regions, such as Henan, Hebei, and Anhui, remained stable. Shandong's price increased by 10.00 to 1560.00. International prices including China FOB, Middle East FOB, etc., also remained unchanged [1]. Inventory - Factory inventory, port inventory, and downstream sample inventory all remained unchanged at 155.43, 11.00, and 14500.00 respectively [1]. Supply - Daily production, overall开工率, coal - based and gas - based开工率, and待发订单 all remained unchanged, with开工率 at 80.69, coal - based at 82.61, and gas - based at 72.79 [1]. Demand - The开工率 of compound fertilizers, melamine, and formaldehyde remained unchanged at 31.04, 49.98, and 40.74 respectively [1]. Profit - The profits of fixed - bed, water - coal slurry, and natural gas remained unchanged at - 317.00, 104.00, and - 292.00 respectively [1]. Related Products - The prices of liquid ammonia and compound fertilizers remained unchanged at 2000.00 and 2450.00 respectively. The prices of melamine and methanol decreased by 30.00 and 20.00 to 5020.00 and 2030.00 respectively [1]. Futures - The结算价 increased by 8.00 to 1625.00, the基差 increased by 3.00 to - 60.00, the涨跌幅 was 0.49, the成交量 decreased by 19168.00 to 140396.00, the持仓量 increased by 2518.00 to 272271.00, and the仓車量 increased by 2445.00 to 3900.00 [1].

Core Points - The project is a green fertilizer and geothermal power station with an annual production capacity of 480,000 tons [2] - The total investment for the project is approximately $800 million [2] - This is the first green fertilizer production project by a Chinese company in Kenya, producing green ammonia, urea, and calcium ammonium nitrate [2]