Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research Variety: Urea [1] - Report Cycle: Weekly report - Date of Completion: January 23, 2026 [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The current futures price of urea is supported by inventory reduction and demand recovery, but the high supply and the expansion of futures premium may lead to basis repair pressure [6]. - It is necessary to track whether the enterprise inventory can continue to decline, whether the port inventory starts to be destocked, whether the compound fertilizer operation rate can break through 45%, the agricultural fertilizer procurement rhythm, the expectation of new export quota release, and the transmission of international urea price fluctuations to the domestic market [6]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Futures Market - This week, the main contract of urea futures showed a high - level volatile trend, with the futures premium continuously expanding. The market maintained range - bound fluctuations in the game between high supply and demand recovery. Short - term attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory destocking and export policy dynamics [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - Supply side: The industry operating rate is 86.39%, with a daily output of 205,100 tons, at a high level in recent years. The resumption of gas - based and technical renovation devices has increased supply, suppressing the upward space of futures prices [4]. - Inventory: The total enterprise inventory is 946,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 40,100 tons, and the port inventory is 121,000 tons, remaining unchanged. The inventory destocking trend alleviates market concerns about oversupply [4]. - Demand side: The compound fertilizer operating rate is 42.96% (+2.88%), and the melamine operating rate is 63.65% (+1.47%), providing rigid support for industrial demand. In the agricultural sector, the procurement of winter and spring fertilizers has started, and some areas have followed up with off - season storage replenishment [4][5]. - Export: In December 2025, the export volume was 489,350 tons, and the export profit remained high. However, there is no news of new export quotas, and the actual export increment is limited [5]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The current futures price is supported by inventory destocking and demand recovery, but high supply and the expansion of futures premium may cause basis repair pressure. Key factors to track include inventory trends, compound fertilizer operation rate, agricultural procurement rhythm, export quota expectations, and international price transmissions [6].

【冠通期货研究报告】 尿素日报：高位震荡 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 27 日 【期现行情】 【行情分析】 期货方面：尿素主力 2605 合约 1787 元/吨开盘, 低开高走，日内偏弱。最 终收于 1790 元/吨，收成一根阳线，涨跌幅-0.17%，持仓量 244860 手（-1608 手）。主力合约前二十名主力持仓席位来看，多头+278 手，空头-1800 手。其中， 东证期货净多单+2260 手、平安期货净多单-1189 手；瑞达期货净空单-1060 手， 永安期货净空单+829 手。 2026 年 1 月 27 日，尿素仓单数量 12699 张，环比上个交易日-575 张，其中 安徽中能（厂库）-25 张，河北东光（厂库）-550 张。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 现货方面：今日现货行情稳中小涨，成交相对顺畅，预收订单充足下，预 计现货价格坚挺。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂报价范围多在 1690-1730 元/吨。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 2 今日尿素低开高走， ...

尿素日报 | 2026-01-27 新单成交好转，关注消息扰动 市场分析 价格与基差：2026-01-26，尿素主力收盘1791元/吨（+3）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1740 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1750元/吨（-10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1760元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差：-41 元/吨（-13）；河南基差：-51元/吨（-3）；江苏基差：-31元/吨（-3）；尿素生产利润185元/吨（-10），出口利润969 元/吨（+99）。 供应端：截至2026-01-26，企业产能利用率86.39%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为94.60 万吨（-4.01），港口样本 库存量为13.40 万吨（+0.00）。 需求端：截至2026-01-26，复合肥产能利用率42.96%（+2.88%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为63.65%（+1.47%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数5.88日（-0.18）。 尿素现货降价企业成交较好。供应端1月部分气头叠加技改企业恢复，供应量增加。需求端上周因雨雪天气影响， 采购有所减弱，近期好转，农需冬腊肥和返青肥持续采购中。厂家后续陆续进行春节收单 ...

| | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 2012 31号 | | 【GE 国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 尿素数据日报 | | | | | 国贸财货研究院 | | 期货从业号:F3054270 | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈三州 | | 投资咨询证号:Z0015946 | | | 指标 | 2026/01/26 | 2026/01/23 | 涨跌值 | 行情评述 | | | 沫煤 | 500. 00 | 500. 00 | 0. 00 | | | 成本 | 无烟小块 | 920.00 | 920. 00 | 0.00 | | | | 天然气 | 3870. 00 | 3850.00 | 20. 00 | | | | 河南 | 1740.00 | 1740.00 | 0.00 | | | | 河北 | 1760.00 | 1750.00 | 10. 00 | 本周工业复合肥开工率逐渐提升,但因 | | | 安徽 | 1750.00 | 1750.00 | 0.00 | 农业需求下降明显,且尿素供应持续高 | | | ...

Group 1 - The stock of China Heartlink Fertilizer (1866.HK) has risen over 1%, reaching a historical high of 11.3700 HKD, with a total market capitalization exceeding 14.4 billion HKD [1] - The stock has accumulated a gain of over 25% within the month [1]

1 期货市场 当日，尿素主力合约窄幅震荡，收盘 1776 元/吨，微涨 0.23%，期现结构维持期货升水但基差小幅收敛，库存持续去化与 需求回暖提供支撑、短期或延续震荡整理。 图 1: 尿素 ur2605 分时图 成文日期：20260122 报告周期:日报 研究品种:尿素 研究分析师：武吟秋（从业资格号：F03087154;投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018989) r | 数据来源： Wind 数据来源: Wind 2 影响因素 行业开工率 86.39%维持高位. 日产 20.51 万吨,供应充足;但 企业库存连续两周去化，94.60 万吨库存较上周减少 4.01 万吨，内 蒙古等区域受东北需求拉动出货加快。 复合肥开工率回升至 42.96%，三聚氰胺开工率 62.18%，工业 需求回暖；农业端冬腊肥与返青肥采购启动，淡储持续，支撑刚 龍。 山东、河南现货价格 1710-1740 元/吨，低于期货收盘价，部分 企业降价吸单后成交好转，但物流受雨雪天气影响局部受阻。 图 2：尿素 UR2605 日线 研究咨询: 028 6130 3163 邮箱: institute@gjgh.com.cn 投诉热线:400682 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4132.61, down 0.09%, and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.85% at 14316.64 [5][8] - The overall market saw a trading volume of 32,806.44 billion, an increase of 1,625.37 billion from the previous trading day, indicating active trading despite the market's downturn [9][11] Economic Insights - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 150.5 billion at an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 7.8 billion for the day [21] - By the end of 2025, the total number of new energy vehicles in China is expected to reach 43.97 million, accounting for 12.01% of the total vehicle population [22][23] - Domestic travel by residents is projected to increase by 907 million trips in 2025, with total travel expenditure reaching 6.3 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 9.5% [24][25] Industry Dynamics - Tianjin has adjusted its housing provident fund loan policies, raising the maximum loan limits for first and second homes to 1.2 million and 1 million respectively [26][27] - The National Development and Reform Commission has issued guidelines to promote the sustainable development of intercity railways, emphasizing planning, operational optimization, and risk management [32][34][35] Company Updates - Micron Biologics (688321.SH) expects a revenue of 910 million for 2025, a year-on-year increase of approximately 38.32%, with a projected net profit of 53 million, marking a turnaround from losses [36][37] - Miaokelan (600882.SH) plans to recognize a fair value change loss related to an acquisition fund, which may significantly impact its net profit for 2025 [38][39] - Six Nations Chemical (600470.SH) anticipates a net loss of 480 million to 410 million for 2025 due to intensified competition and export restrictions [41][42] - Huaxin Co. (600621.SH) expects a net profit increase of approximately 77.48% for 2025, driven by growth in investment and brokerage business revenues [43] - Hunan Gold (002155.SZ) forecasts a net profit increase of 50% to 90% for 2025, attributed to rising sales prices of gold, antimony, and tungsten products [44][45]

一、本期业绩预告情况 （一）业绩预告期间 2025年1月1日至2025年12月31日。 （二）业绩预告情况 股票简称：六国化工 股票代码：600470 公告编号：2026-002 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ● 业绩预告的适用情形：净利润为负值。 ● 安徽六国化工股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）预计2025年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润 为-48,000万元到-41,000万元；预计2025年度实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益后的净利润 为-48,500万元到-41,500万元。 三、本期业绩预亏的主要原因 经公司财务部门初步测算，预计2025年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润为-48,000万元到-41,000万 元，将出现亏损。 预计2025年度实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益的净利润为-48,500万元到-41,500万元。 报告期内，受宏观经济环境和国家对化肥稳价保供、出口管控等政策的影响，国内化肥市场竞争加剧， 国际市场出口受限，产品出口销量同比较大幅度下降。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yara International (000893) has shown significant growth in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating strong operational performance in the potassium mining and fertilizer production sector [2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a main revenue of 3.867 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55.76% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.363 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 163.01% [2]. - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.362 billion yuan, up 164.56% year-on-year [2]. - In Q3 2025 alone, the company achieved a main revenue of 1.345 billion yuan, a 71.37% increase compared to the same quarter last year [2]. - The net profit for Q3 2025 was 508 million yuan, marking a 104.69% year-on-year growth [2]. - The net profit excluding non-recurring items for Q3 2025 was 506 million yuan, up 105.0% year-on-year [2]. - The company's debt ratio stands at 32.61%, with investment income of 44.8025 million yuan and financial expenses of 65.2958 million yuan [2]. - The gross profit margin is reported at 58.91% [2]. Market Activity - As of January 26, 2026, Yara International's stock closed at 59.3 yuan, down 0.87%, with a turnover rate of 2.01% and a trading volume of 163,000 hands, amounting to a total transaction value of 966.5 million yuan [1]. - On January 26, 2026, the net outflow of main funds was 48.8203 million yuan, accounting for 5.06% of the total transaction value, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 44.6241 million yuan, representing 4.62% of the total transaction value [1]. Analyst Ratings - Over the past 90 days, 12 institutions have provided ratings for the stock, with 10 giving a "buy" rating and 2 recommending "hold" [3].

上周，国内尿素行情以弱势盘整为主，后期部分工厂成交略有好转，报价小幅反弹，但国内尿素市场需 求活跃度不高，仅以下游逢低补货为主，尿素企业日产量稳定在20万吨以上。上周，复合肥工厂开工率 小幅提升，其对于尿素原料仍维持刚需采购，预计随着春节的逐步临近，下游复合肥工厂开工负荷将呈 下降趋势，其他下游工厂按需采购为主，需求形势基本稳定。 01 价格方面 供应方面，上周国内尿素日产量继续较前周提升，国内尿素平均日产量在20.3万吨，较前周平均日产量 增加约0.3万吨，平均开工率约为86.1%。1月23日，国内尿素日产量约为20.53万吨，开工率约为 86.97%。 上周，国内尿素行情先抑后扬，整体波幅空间不大，下游以逢低采购为主。至上周五，北方（不含山 西、东北及西北）尿素工厂出厂价在1680~1720元（吨价，下同）；山西工厂低端价格在1610元左右； 新疆尿素工厂价格稳中下滑，疆内出厂报价在1310~1530元；江苏及安徽中小颗粒尿素工厂出厂价在 1700~1800元，高端报价在江苏省内；两广地区尿素市场价在1830~1870元，较上周同期下滑10元。上 周，国内尿素市场批发价在1750~1850元。 上周，国内 ...