1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Indian and Southeast Asian origin vegetable oil low inventories, the US biodiesel policy draft boosting soybean oil demand, limited growth potential of Southeast Asian palm oil production, and the increasing biodiesel consumption in Indonesia leading to expected decline in exportable volume support the oil price center. The oils and fats are currently in a state of balanced or slightly loose real - supply and demand, but with a tightening expectation. Before the inventories in sales regions and origin regions are fully accumulated and there is no negative feedback from sales region demand, a mid - term stable - buying idea can be applied. In the short term, due to the weakening of commodity sentiment caused by the fermentation of the trade war, it is advisable to wait and see [11][12][13] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Overview**: This week, the three major oils and fats fluctuated. Foreign capital seats continuously reduced their net long positions in oils and fats, mainly due to the sharp decline in crude oil depressing the valuation of oils and fats. Although the export data of Malaysian palm oil improved, it did not exceed expectations, with a year - on - year increase of about 15% in the first 15 days of October, indicating average downstream demand or high oil production in other regions. Indonesia's proposal of the B50 plan in 2026, possible increase in export taxes, and implementation of further DMO policies triggered a rebound in the oil market, but the lack of a schedule made the market rally unsustainable [11] - **International Oils and Fats**: The October MPOB monthly report showed that the inventory of Malaysian palm oil accumulated to 2.36 million tons, with a slight decline in production and a slight increase in exports. The significant decline in domestic apparent consumption led to a year - on - year increase of about 350,000 tons in Malaysian palm oil inventory. In Indonesia, if production cannot be maintained at a high level in the long term and global oil demand is stable, and considering the upcoming production - reduction season after the fourth quarter, the expectation of low inventory in Indonesia will continue, supporting palm oil prices in the medium and long term. In September, India imported 1.6 million tons of oils and fats, with a stock increase of 140,000 tons, and the apparent demand was 1.46 million tons, slightly lower than last year but still at a good level [11] - **Domestic Oils and Fats**: This week, the trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was weak, and the spot basis was stable. The total domestic oil inventory was about 315,000 tons higher than last year, indicating sufficient supply. Among them, rapeseed oil inventory was 150,000 tons higher than last year, palm oil inventory was 27,000 tons higher, and soybean oil inventory increased by 120,000 tons year - on - year. In the next two months, soybean crushing volume will maintain a slightly downward trend from a high level. Palm oil imports are expected to remain at a moderately low level, keeping inventory stable. The high price of rapeseed oil has slowed down the inventory - reduction progress. However, due to the high margin required for importing Canadian rapeseed, the total domestic oil inventory will remain high in the short term and show a downward trend in the medium term [11] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, consider buying on dips when the market stabilizes. For now, due to the short - term weakening of commodity sentiment caused by the trade war, it is recommended to wait and see [13] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents multiple charts showing the basis and seasonal basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures contracts, including the FOB price of Malaysian palm oil, the basis of Malaysian palm oil futures contracts, and the basis of domestic palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil 01 contracts [18][20][22] 3.3 Supply Side - **Production and Exports of Malaysian Palm Oil**: The report provides charts of the monthly production and export volume of Malaysian palm oil from 2021 - 2025, showing the trends in production and exports over the years [27] - **Production and Exports of Indonesian Palm Oil**: Charts of the monthly production and export volume of Indonesian palm oil and palm kernel oil from 2021 - 2025 are presented, reflecting the production and export trends [28] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Supply**: Charts of the weekly arrival volume, port inventory of soybeans, and monthly import volume of rapeseed and rapeseed oil are provided, showing the supply situation of these raw materials [29][31] - **Palm - Producing Region Weather**: Charts of weighted precipitation in Indonesian and Malaysian palm - producing regions, along with forecasts, as well as the NINO 3.4 index and the impact of La Nina on global climate are presented, which may affect palm oil production [33][34] 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Total Inventory of Three Major Domestic Oils**: A chart shows the total inventory of three major domestic oils from 2021 - 2025, reflecting the inventory trend [40] - **Inventory and Profit of Each Oil**: Charts of the import profit, commercial inventory of palm oil, the spot crushing profit of imported soybeans, the inventory of major soybean oil mills, the coastal spot average crushing profit of rapeseed, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil in East China, and the inventory of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia are provided, showing the profit and inventory situation of each oil [42][44][45] 3.5 Cost Side - **Cost of Malaysian Palm Oil**: Charts of the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil are presented, showing the cost situation of palm oil [50] - **Cost of Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: Charts of the CNF import price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of imported rapeseed are provided, reflecting the cost of rapeseed and rapeseed oil [53] 3.6 Demand Side - **Oil Trading Volume**: Charts of the cumulative trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil in the crop year are presented, showing the trading volume trends [56] - **Biodiesel Profit**: Charts of the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil) are provided, reflecting the profit situation of biodiesel [58]

Core Insights - The "Guoyou Zhidu" project, developed by Yangzhou Industrial Vocational Technical College, won the gold medal in the vocational education track at the National Finals of the China International College Students Innovation and Entrepreneurship Competition 2025, held on October 15 in Zhengzhou University [1] - This project focuses on innovative equipment technology for the refining process of domestic rapeseed oil, addressing the challenge of effectively filtering out impurities sized 20-50 microns, thereby significantly improving oil purity and reducing processing costs [1][3] - The project has been validated in enterprises and has received positive feedback, providing crucial technical support for enhancing the rapeseed oil industry and ensuring national edible oil security [1] Project Development - The project leader emphasized the importance of not allowing foreign low-priced soybean imports to disrupt the domestic rapeseed oil market, reflecting a proactive approach to industry challenges [3] - The team faced numerous technical challenges, including balancing the strength and porosity of refining membrane materials and precise control of oil viscosity, which required extensive practical exploration in both workshops and fields [3] - The project team innovatively proposed a design concept of "separation of stirring and adsorption functions," leading to the successful development of the "Guoyou Zhidu" intelligent refining module [3][5] Achievements and Goals - The project has applied for five patents and has successfully implemented its results in a thousand-ton domestic rapeseed oil production line at Maian De Group, with oil quality passing authoritative testing [5] - The team aims to become the leading brand in China's rapeseed oil refining equipment, ensuring that consumers can trust domestic oil products [5] - The project reflects the long-term commitment of the school to integrate industry and education, providing a fertile ground for projects with strong industrial backgrounds and practical significance [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] 2) Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. The overall supply - demand pattern of the market is stable, with both long and short factors coexisting and a lack of strong trends. Future attention should be paid to changes in biodiesel policies [3] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9312.00 yuan/ton yesterday, a decrease of 10 yuan or - 0.11% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8256.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.00 yuan or + 0.05%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9935.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.00 yuan or + 0.03% [1] - **Spot Prices**: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9190.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.00 yuan or - 0.22%, with a spot basis of P01 + - 122.00, a decrease of 10.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8420.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.00 yuan/ton or - 0.12%, with a spot basis of Y01 + 164.00, a decrease of 14.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10250.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.00 yuan or + 0.10%, with a spot basis of OI01 + 315.00, an increase of 7.00 yuan [1] - **Market News**: Indonesia is considering implementing a 1% sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) blended fuel program for international flights departing from Jakarta and Bali in 2026. The C&F prices of US Gulf, US West, and Brazilian soybeans (November shipment) increased by 3, 3, and 1 dollars/ton respectively compared to the previous trading day. The import soybean premium quotes also increased by 2 cents/bushel for all regions. Last week (October 5 - 11), Brazil exported 1538934 tons of soybeans, 266768 tons of soybean meal, and 902772 tons of corn, and this week (October 12 - 18) it plans to export 2153936 tons of soybeans, 672337 tons of soybean meal, and 1889800 tons of corn [2] Strategy - The strategy is to maintain a neutral stance [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Volatile [2] - Glass: Adjustment [2] - Soda ash: Adjustment [2] - CSI 50: Volatile [3] - CSI 300: Volatile [3] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: Bullish volatility [4] - Silver: Bullish volatility [4] - Logs: Range-bound [6] - Pulp: Consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Volatile [6] - Soybean oil: Wide-range volatility [6] - Palm oil: Wide-range volatility [6] - Rapeseed oil: Wide-range volatility [6] - Soybean meal: Bearish volatility [6] - Rapeseed meal: Bearish volatility [6] - Soybean No. 2: Bearish volatility [6] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile [6] - Live pigs: Volatile and slightly bearish [7] - Rubber: Volatile [7] - PX: Wait-and-see [7] - PTA: Volatile [7] - MEG: Wait-and-see [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Views - The black sector is affected by trade frictions, and the iron ore market focuses on supply and steel demand; coking coal and coke face production and demand adjustments; steel products have supply and demand contradictions and are expected to continue to fluctuate and adjust [2] - The stock index futures/options market has improved bullish sentiment but still requires risk reduction; the bond market shows a slight upward trend; the gold and silver markets are expected to be bullish due to various factors [3][4] - The forestry and light industry products have different trends, with logs likely to return to range-bound, pulp at the bottom, and paper products showing various fluctuations [6] - The oil and fat market is affected by factors such as inventory, production, and demand, and is expected to continue wide-range volatility; the meal market is under supply pressure and is expected to be bearish [6] - The agricultural products market, such as live pigs, has supply and demand imbalances and is expected to be volatile; the rubber market is affected by weather and demand, and is expected to be wide-range volatile [7] - The chemical products market, such as PX, PTA, and MEG, is affected by factors such as oil prices and supply and demand, and has different trends [7][9] Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Trade frictions and supply issues affect the market. Steel mill profits are high, and iron ore prices are expected to be volatile. The key lies in steel demand after the holiday [2] - Coking coal and coke: Domestic coking coal production is expected to be lower, but Mongolian coal imports are at a record high. Coke demand is strong, and the first round of price increases has been implemented, but the second round has basically failed. Pay attention to low-buying opportunities [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Rebar has a large supply pressure, and the key is the demand recovery in October. High supply and inventory accumulation bring pressure, and prices need to match rapid de-stocking to stabilize [2] - Glass: The short-term supply and demand pattern has not improved significantly, with increased production capacity utilization and inventory accumulation. Real estate completion drags down demand, and pay attention to policy and demand recovery [2] - Soda ash: The supply and demand are under pressure, and the price follows the oil price. The PTA supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening, and the price follows the cost [7][9] Financial Products - Stock index futures/options: The market sentiment has improved, but it is still recommended to reduce risk preference and control positions [3][4] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond has declined, and the central bank has carried out reverse repurchase operations. The bond market shows a slight upward trend, and long positions can be held lightly [4] - Gold and silver: Affected by factors such as interest rates, geopolitics, and inflation, the pricing mechanism is changing, and the market is expected to be bullish [4] Forestry and Light Industry Products - Logs: The port inventory is increasing, and the cost support is strengthening. After the holiday, the supply may increase, and the demand is expected to gradually recover. The price is expected to return to range-bound [6] - Pulp: The spot price is stable, the cost support is weakening, and the demand improvement is uncertain. The price is expected to be at the bottom [6] - Offset paper: The production is relatively stable, the demand is expected to improve, but the profit is low. The price is expected to be volatile [6] Oil and Fat and Meal Products - Oil and fat: Affected by factors such as inventory, production, and demand, the market is expected to continue wide-range volatility. Pay attention to Brazilian soybean sowing and Malaysian palm oil production and sales [6] - Meal: Affected by factors such as global trade and supply and demand, the market is under supply pressure and is expected to be bearish. Pay attention to Brazilian soybean sowing and soybean imports [6] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The supply is relatively abundant, the demand may decline, and the price is expected to be volatile and slightly bearish [7] - Rubber: Affected by weather and demand, the production is affected, and the demand is weak. The inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to be wide-range volatile [7] Chemical Products - PX: The supply and demand are under pressure, and the price follows the oil price. The PXN spread is suppressed [7] - PTA: The supply is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the price follows the cost [7][9] - MEG: The port inventory is increasing, the supply pressure is increasing, and the price support may be weakened [9] - PR: The market rebounds weakly and may be volatile and bearish [9] - PF: The downstream demand is good, but the international oil price is weak, and the price may be bearish [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] - The current main logic is centered around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main bullish factor is that the US soybean inventory - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. The main bearish factors are that the prices of oils and fats are historically high, domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views - Soybean Oil - The MPOB report shows that in August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month - on - month to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production reduction is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season [2] - The basis of soybean oil is 180, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is bullish. The commercial inventory of soybean oil on August 22 was 1.18 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.7%, which is bearish. The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish. The short positions of the main soybean oil contract are increasing, which is bearish. It is expected that soybean oil Y2601 will fluctuate in the range of 8,000 - 8,400 [2] Daily Views - Palm Oil - The MPOB report for August shows a decrease in Malaysian palm oil production, exports, and inventory. The report is neutral, and the production reduction is less than expected. Currently, the export data shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply will increase in the subsequent production - increase season [3] - The basis of palm oil is - 70, with the spot price lower than the futures price, which is bearish. The port inventory of palm oil on August 22 was 580,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1%, which is bullish. The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish. The long positions of the main palm oil contract are decreasing, which is bullish. It is expected that palm oil P2601 will fluctuate in the range of 9,100 - 9,500 [3] Daily Views - Rapeseed Oil - The MPOB report indicates a decrease in Malaysian palm oil production, exports, and inventory in August. The report is neutral, and the production reduction is less than expected. Currently, the export data shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply will increase in the subsequent production - increase season [4] - The basis of rapeseed oil is 201, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is bullish. The commercial inventory of rapeseed oil on August 22 was 560,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.2%, which is bearish. The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish. The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract are decreasing, which is bullish. It is expected that rapeseed oil OI2601 will fluctuate in the range of 9,700 - 10,100 [4] Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - Bullish factor: The US soybean inventory - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - Bearish factors: The prices of oils and fats are historically high, domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]

Group 1: Palm Oil - Indonesia's Energy Minister announced a mandatory B50 biodiesel policy to be implemented by 2026, leading to expectations of reduced palm oil exports from Indonesia [1] - MPOA data indicates a 2.35% decrease in Malaysia's palm oil production for September 1-30, with market surveys suggesting a potential decline in palm oil inventory for the first time in seven months due to increased exports and decreased production [1] - Concerns exist regarding India's potential increase in vegetable oil import tariffs, and domestic demand is under pressure following the end of the dual festival stocking period [1] Group 2: Gold - Concerns about a potential U.S. federal government shutdown have increased demand for safe-haven assets, with the World Gold Council reporting a 12% year-on-year increase in global central bank gold purchases in Q3 [1] - The Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes indicated a consensus on the necessity of another interest rate cut this year, putting pressure on the U.S. dollar [1] - Factors to watch include changes in inflation statements, adjustments to the balance sheet plan, and developments in geopolitical conflicts [1] Group 3: Copper - Global copper supply is tightening, exacerbated by production cuts at Chile's Escondida copper mine, with LME copper inventory dropping below 150,000 tons, the lowest level since 2005 [1] - Traditional sectors are experiencing weak demand, which may suppress downstream replenishment intentions due to high copper prices [1] - Key events to monitor include labor negotiations at Chile's Antofagasta copper mine and the resumption progress at Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine [1] Group 4: Live Pigs - The inventory of breeding sows remains high, leading to sufficient supply of market pigs, while post-festival demand recovery has not met expectations [1] - National breeding sow inventory is being gradually reduced, with plans to decrease by 1 million heads within six months [1] - Events to watch include policy intervention signals, slaughter rhythm and weight, and the impact of weather changes on transportation and consumption demand [1] Group 5: Shipping - A ceasefire agreement in Gaza has been confirmed, and global fleet capacity is expected to grow by 6.3% by 2025, creating significant pressure from new ship deliveries [1] - The period from late Q3 to early Q4 is traditionally a low season, with spot rates continuing to decline [1] - Risks include potential seasonal demand for Christmas stocking, which may lead to a temporary increase in cargo volume, and ongoing threats from Houthi forces in Yemen [1] Group 6: Coking Coal - Weekly inventory of coking coal has decreased by 132, reaching 36.324 million tons, with recent mining accidents raising concerns about production capacity [2] - The long-term contract price for Mongolian coal has increased by $3.8 per ton in Q4, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment towards traditional peak season demand [2] - Key events to monitor include the maintenance of high iron water production capacity and the fulfillment of steel demand [2] Group 7: Industrial Silicon - The southwestern region is approaching a dry season, with expectations of rising electricity prices pushing production costs higher [2] - Institutions forecast a 5.95% month-on-month increase in October's polysilicon output to 142,500 tons, with a 3.7% increase in operating rates to 50.05% [2] - Events to watch include the progress of polysilicon storage plans and discussions on revising energy consumption standards for industrial silicon [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - India and Southeast Asian origin vegetable oil low inventories, the US biodiesel policy draft boosting soybean oil demand, limited palm oil production growth potential in Southeast Asia, and the expected decline in exportable volume due to increasing biodiesel consumption in Indonesia support the oil price center. Oils are currently in a state of balanced or slightly loose real - world supply - demand, with a tight expectation. Before the inventories in consumption areas and origin are fully accumulated and there is no negative feedback in consumption area demand, the medium - term outlook is oscillating and bullish. Given the current high valuation, observe high - frequency data and adopt a buy - on - dips - after - stabilization approach for now [11][12][13] Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In September, the prices of the three major oils declined. Foreign capital seats reduced their net long positions in oils, mainly due to average palm oil export data from Malaysia, indicating either weak downstream demand or high oil production in other regions. Mid - month, the prices of the three major oils dropped significantly due to short - term discounted soybean oil sales in Argentina, and then rebounded due to the mid - term global palm oil supply - demand balance and a tight - supply expectation at the end of the year. During the National Day holiday, the proposed B50 plan in Indonesia for 2026 and the expected reduction of 500 million tons of palm oil exports led to a sharp rebound in the oil market [11] - **International Oils**: The MPOB monthly report on October 10 showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased to 2.36 million tons, with a slight decline in production and a slight increase in exports. The significant decline in domestic apparent consumption led to a year - on - year increase of about 350,000 tons in Malaysian palm oil inventory. Indonesian data lags, but if production cannot remain high in the long term and global oil demand is stable, Indonesian inventory is expected to remain low. After the fourth quarter, the production season will enter a decline phase. Both Indian and Indonesian inventories are lower year - on - year, which will support palm oil prices in the medium and long term [11] - **Domestic Oils**: In September, the trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was decent, and the spot basis was stable. The total domestic oil inventory was about 325,000 tons higher than last year, indicating sufficient oil supply. Rapeseed oil inventory was 187,000 tons higher than last year, palm oil inventory was 47,000 tons higher, and soybean oil inventory increased by 90,000 tons year - on - year. In the next two months, soybean crushing volume will maintain a high - level and slightly declining trend. Palm oil imports are expected to remain at a slightly below - neutral level, keeping inventory stable. The high price of rapeseed oil has slowed down the de - stocking process. However, due to the high margin required for Canadian rapeseed imports, the total domestic oil inventory will remain high in the short term and is expected to decline in the medium term [11] - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a bullish unilateral strategy. Given the current high valuation, observe high - frequency data and use a buy - on - dips - after - stabilization approach [13] 2. Futures and Spot Market - The document presents multiple charts related to the basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures contracts, including the basis of FCPOV25.MDE FOB palm oil (Malaysia), palm oil 01 contract, soybean oil 01 contract, and rapeseed oil 01 contract, as well as their seasonal basis charts, to show the relationship between futures and spot prices [18][21][23] 3. Supply Side - **Production and Exports**: Charts show the monthly production and exports of Malaysian palm oil, Indonesian palm oil + palm kernel oil, as well as the weekly arrival and port inventory of soybeans, and the monthly imports of rapeseed and rapeseed oil, reflecting the supply situation of different oils [28][29][30] - **Weather in Palm - Producing Areas**: Charts display the weighted precipitation in Indonesian and Malaysian palm - producing areas, along with the NINO 3.4 index and the impact of La Nina on global climate, which may affect palm oil production [34][36] 4. Profit and Inventory - **Inventory Charts**: Present the total inventory of the three major domestic oils, Indian imported vegetable oil inventory, palm oil import profit and commercial inventory, soybean oil spot crushing profit and major oil mill inventory, rapeseed spot average crushing profit and East China rapeseed oil commercial inventory, and Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil inventories, reflecting the inventory and profit situation of different oils [42][45][47] 5. Cost Side - **Cost Charts**: Show the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches, Malaysian palm oil import cost price, CNF import price of rapeseed oil, and the import cost price of Chinese rapeseed, reflecting the cost situation of different oils [52][56] 6. Demand Side - **Trading Volume**: Charts show the cumulative trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil in the crop year, reflecting the demand situation of different oils [59] - **Biodiesel Profit**: Charts show the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil), which may affect the demand for oils in the biodiesel field [61]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: Neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The implementation of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel plan in the second half of 2026 will significantly increase palm oil consumption and support palm oil prices [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9,570 yuan/ton, up 342 yuan or 3.71% from the previous day; the soybean oil 2601 contract closed at 8,332 yuan/ton, up 192 yuan or 2.36%; the rapeseed oil 2601 contract closed at 10,248 yuan/ton, up 204 yuan or 2.03% [1] - **Spot Prices**: In Guangdong, the spot price of palm oil was 9,450 yuan/ton, up 370 yuan or 4.07%, with a spot basis of P01 + -120 yuan, up 28 yuan. In Tianjin, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,520 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan or 2.77%, with a spot basis of Y01 + 188 yuan, up 38 yuan. In Jiangsu, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10,500 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan or 2.14%, with a spot basis of OI01 + 252 yuan, up 16 yuan [1] - **Import Prices**: Argentina's soybean oil (November shipment) C&F price was 1,114 dollars/ton, down 8 dollars/ton from the previous day; (January shipment) was 1,107 dollars/ton, down 17 dollars/ton. Canadian rapeseed oil (November shipment) C&F price was 1,095 dollars/ton, down 30 dollars/ton; (January shipment) was 1,075 dollars/ton, down 30 dollars/ton. Canadian rapeseed (November shipment) C&F price was 510 dollars/ton, up 7 dollars/ton; (January shipment) was 520 dollars/ton, up 8 dollars/ton. US Gulf soybeans (November shipment) C&F price was 459 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars/ton; US West soybeans (November shipment) was 438 dollars/ton, up 7 dollars/ton; Brazilian soybeans (November shipment) was 483 dollars/ton, up 8 dollars/ton [2] - **Import Premiums**: Mexican Gulf (November shipment) soybean import premium was 220 cents/bushel, down 12 cents/bushel; US West Coast (November shipment) was 165 cents/bushel, unchanged; Brazilian ports (November shipment) was 285 cents/bushel, unchanged [2] - **Supply and Demand**: In the 2024/25 market year, China's edible vegetable oil production was 3,144 million tons. Due to increased production, the import volume of edible vegetable oil in 2024/25 was reduced by 500,000 tons to 7.06 million tons, with palm oil and sunflower oil imports reduced by 300,000 tons and 200,000 tons respectively. The average ex - factory prices of national standard third - grade soybean oil, third - grade rapeseed oil, and first - grade peanut oil in 2024/25 were 8,089 yuan/ton, 9,585 yuan/ton, and 14,635 yuan/ton respectively, all within the estimated range. There were no adjustments to the supply - demand forecast data for China's edible vegetable oil in 2025/26 [2] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [4]

Report Overview - Report Title: "Grease Market Review: Positive Expectations from Indonesia's Biodiesel Policy, Palm Oil Leads the Grease Market" [1] - Date: October 9, 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The market outlook for palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil is oscillating upward. Key positive factors include favorable expectations from Indonesia's biodiesel policy, increased palm oil consumption for biodiesel in Indonesia, palm oil entering the production - reduction season, continuous reduction of domestic rapeseed oil inventory, and a high probability of reduced US soybean yield [5] 3. Summary by Directory Price Performance - Today, palm oil led the domestic grease market. The closing price change rate of palm oil's 01 contract was 4.13%, that of soybean oil's 01 contract was 2.69%, and that of rapeseed oil's 01 contract was 2.01% [2] Fundamental Analysis - **Market Analysis** - Palm oil led the grease market today due to the recent rebound of US soybeans and US soybean oil, Indonesia's plan to enforce the B85 biodiesel policy in 2026, and the expected decline in Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September [4] - Macroeconomic environment: The US federal government is in a "shutdown" state, and geopolitical and economic uncertainties are increasing. The US dollar has been strengthening recently, and crude oil prices are fluctuating [4] - US soybeans: Affected by the US government shutdown, recent US soybean data updates have been suspended. Considering the US soybean's good - to - excellent rate and weather conditions this year, there is a high probability of a decline in US soybean yield and production in the later period. The market hopes for a package of assistance plans for farmers from the US government and demand improvement. However, China has not imported US soybeans yet, and Sino - US trade relations are still uncertain, so US soybean export demand faces great uncertainty. The expected seasonal decline in domestic imported soybeans may lead to a peak - to - decline in domestic soybean oil inventory [4] - Palm oil: MP0A and SPPOMA data show that Malaysia's palm oil production in September decreased by 2.35% and 2.42% month - on - month respectively. ITS and AmSpec data show that Malaysia's palm oil exports in September increased by 9.6% and 7.3% month - on - month respectively. The market expects a slight decline in Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September. Indonesia's biodiesel demand for palm oil is expected to increase. GAKPI data shows that from January to July 2025, Indonesia's domestic biodiesel consumption of palm oil was 7.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 793,000 tons. If Indonesia enforces the B85 biodiesel policy in 2026, the domestic biodiesel consumption of palm oil will reach 20.1 billion liters, a year - on - year increase of about 29% [4] - Rapeseed oil: Affected by China's restrictions on Canadian rapeseed imports and the fact that Russian rapeseed has not been widely available on the market, the expected volume of domestic rapeseed imports is low, and domestic rapeseed oil inventory may continue to decline [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Palm oil and soybean oil are not recommended to be chased high, with limited upside potential; rapeseed oil can be bought on dips with small long positions [4] Core View - With the news that Indonesia's B50 R & D is accelerating and Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to decline, the domestic vegetable oil sector opened higher and the palm oil led the rise. However, considering the current inventory situation of various oils, it is not advisable to chase high for palm oil and soybean oil, while rapeseed oil can be bought on dips [3][4] Summary According to Related Content Indonesia's B50 Policy - During the National Day holiday on October 7, Indonesian officials said that the B50 laboratory test was completed and planned to implement the B50 biodiesel plan next year, but the specific implementation time was undetermined. If B50 is implemented, Indonesia's demand for palm - based biofuel will rise to 20.1 billion liters, compared with 15.6 billion liters required by the current B40 policy [3] Malaysia's Palm Oil Situation - The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (NPOB) will release the official monthly report on October 10. A survey shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September will decline for the first time since February due to increased exports and decreased production. The export volume in September is expected to be 1.427 million tons, a 7.7% month - on - month increase, the highest since November last year. The crude palm oil production in September is expected to be 1.794 million tons, a 3.3% month - on - month decrease, the lowest since June [3] Domestic Vegetable Oil Inventory and Investment Suggestions - The domestic soybean inventory is 7.79 million tons, a five - year high, and 40 ships of zero - tariff soybeans from Argentina are on the way. The soybean oil inventory of oil mills is 1.46 million tons, also a five - year high. The palm oil inventory is 524,000 tons, which can meet the rigid demand. Due to the China - Canada trade dispute, the subsequent arrival of rapeseed is low, and the rapeseed oil inventory of oil mills is being depleted. Among the three major oils, rapeseed oil has the strongest fundamentals and high resistance to decline [4]